AD #2214 – The End of the ICE?, GM Wants to Test AVs in NYC, There’s How Many Cars on Plant Earth!?

October 18th, 2017 at 11:42am

Runtime: 9:13

0:27 GM Wants to Test AVs in NYC
1:11 GM Won’t Spin Off AV Business
1:37 There’s How Many Cars on Plant Earth!?
2:59 Toyota’s Fuel Cell Concepts
4:43 The End of the ICE?
5:25 Mark Fields Finds New Job
6:16 Why Wall Street Backs GM Not Ford

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14 Comments to “AD #2214 – The End of the ICE?, GM Wants to Test AVs in NYC, There’s How Many Cars on Plant Earth!?”

  1. XA351GT Says:

    So EVs will be equal to ICE in what regards? Sales, Price, Range? Sorry ,but I don’t buy it. that in 5 years we’ll all of a sudden have all these EVs on the road. Wishful thinking for tree huggers and absolute disaster financially for manufacturers. They lose money hand over fist on EVS and need the ICE sales to offset those losses. That was said right on the show in regards to Fiat and the 500 and EV 500. What was it , they needed to 4-5 ICE 500s to break even for every EV 500? Unless there is a magic bullet someone has already found , because cars 5 years away are already being planned now. They can’t match price , sales or range on any comparable ICE vehicle. Someone is smoking some good stuff somewhere.

  2. George Ricci Says:

    “Fuel cells do make more sense in commercial trucks and buses” – maybe, but it still does not change the fact that there is NO efficient way to make hydrogen. 95% of all the hydrogen made in the US is made by burning fossil fuels. So much for zero emissions!

    I am very surprised that you did not call BS on Michael Robinet from HIS saying “no automaker has plans to develop new piston engines”. What about Mazda’s HCCI engine, and Infiniti variable compression engine, just name a couple off the top of my head.

  3. Lambo2015 Says:

    In any given year you could say no manufacturer has plans for a new engine outside of 4 years. I wouldn’t take that as a sign the end is near. Furthermore manufacturers already have a selection of 3,4,5,6,and 8 cyl engines to improve upon, why would they need an all new engine. Many engines today are just variants of old engines with improvements. Adding FI, PFI, MPFI SPFI, didn’t require a new engine.

  4. Lambo2015 Says:

    #1&2 I read up a little on Michael Robinet and I just don’t understand how someone that deeply involved in the auto industry and highly regarded for his trend forecasting, could possibly believe EVs are that close to replacing the ICE. I really expected him to be from California as they tend to embrace any clean/green initiative.

    I’m no forecaster but according to KBB and other sites the average new car is kept 6 years in the US now. So even if an EV was on the market today that could compete with an ICE it would take 6 years before todays new car buyers are in the market again. If that car isn’t available for 4 more years and assume more than half will want a EV its more like 2027.

  5. XA351GT Says:

    #2 The same can be said for EVs . What do generating stations use predominately? Oil and Coal. I don’t know the % of Hydro power ,but that is the equal comparison to those other 2. Nukes aren’t the answer look at the mess fro FUKashima. So how exactly are EVs all that good on the environment overall. From mining the minerals for batteries to the end disposal , I just see the upside.

  6. G.A.Branigan Says:

    Will our vehicles eventually be predominantly electric ? Yup. Will it be even close to the time frame they predict? Nope.Does it really matter to me? Nope.My next,and last vehicle purchase will be a diesel midsize truck. That will last me the rest of my life ;}>

  7. Kit Gerhart Says:

    EV’s could replace ICE vehicles for most driving done by most people. An EV with 100 mile range, that could be charged overnight, would work for most commutes, BUT replacing all vehicles with EV’s is a long way off, never mind the high purchase price of current EV’s.

    At their best, current EV’s barely work for long highway trips. Even a Tesla S, with their “superchargers,” requires twice the number of “pit stops” of a regular car, and the stops take much longer.

  8. Chuck Grenci Says:

    Well, if development and new ICE’s stops, then you are going to see the SAAR drop (like a rock). Gradual infiltration of ‘electrics’ and other alternative fuel/propulsion will surely make head-way but the manufacturers will (or better) still be drawing up those more efficient, more clean and more practical suck-bang-blow engines. As the ICE responds to critics at an up until now not scheduled news conference, I can here its reply: “the reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated”.

  9. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Can ICE’s get much better, or is development reaching the top part of a plateau? Some of today’s engines claim ~40% thermal efficiency, about equal to the huge diesels in cargo ships, which are claimed to generally be the most efficient reciprocating engines.

    Years ago, I’d read about the possibility of running engines at very high temperature, like 400C, which would greatly improve thermal efficiency, but I haven’t heard much about that lately. I think they were talking about making the engines out of silicon nitride, and maybe not needing lubricant. I suspect that was all “pie in the sky,” because I haven’t heard mention of it in years.

    It would seem that Atkinson cycle tuning could be useful in non-hybrids, with the many-speed transmissions with a wide ratio range. Atkinson cycle engines are weak at low rpm, but I’d think using very low gearing at breakaway, and then keeping the engine in its “sweet spot” rpm could gain a few percent in fuel economy, while getting decent performance.

  10. Lambo2015 Says:

    Kit the Atkinson cycle engines are being used especially in the hybrids due to not needing the low end torque when being electrically assisted. They can take advantage of the efficiency without the performance loss.

  11. Kit Gerhart Says:

    I know Atkinson cycle engines are used in hybrids. I’ve had one for 7 years. I’d think they could also work decently in non-hybrids, though, if done properly. Maybe someone is doing that, and I’m not aware.

  12. Roger T Says:

    #1, #2 – EVs will be the predominant choice for new cars because compared to an ICE vehicle they will be prices similarly, be roomier, run smoother, be mechanically simpler, faster and cheaper to run. Also expect them to charge increasingly faster and the charging infrastructure to significantly improve from now. I see no reason to buy an ICE vehicle in 2022 actually.

  13. stephen Says:

    It does not matter how efficient ICE cars become if another 100000 hit the road. We know ICE cars still emit carcinogens no matter what CAT or soot trap is fitted. So if adults want to live in the cities and smog levels rise then something has to be done- either we’ll be banning all old cars (there goes your resale value on ICE) or banning individual cars altogether. Autonomous cars won’t solve the problem unless they are EV. It just makes driving easier.
    Your diesel truck may sound good but when you have to pay a toll to enter a city or leave it outside while hybrids or EVs drive on, then was that a good purchase when most business will have left the suburbs for the city?

  14. stephen Says:

    As to ICE developments, we know that diesel emissions are way over any official standard as they are best only for long distance driving or hauling not modern traffic jams.
    Most ICE engine developments are making at most a 2-3% gain. Mazda’s HCCI tech does not work full time so the gain is not there from zero mph. If Diesel can offer a real 40mpg on average then the HCCI will only meet that. We know hybrids can meet 50mpg and every home with roof top solar is going to buy an plug-in hybrid or EV at some point as the fuel is free.
    What company will want to locate jobs in a city with smog, what graduate will move there? So lots more light rail, hybrid-LNG-fuel cell buses, underground extensions (if the boring company makes progress), elec-assist cycling. So pure ICE is ending and owning a dirty ICE will cost more or be confined more. Witness older ICE cars and trucks becoming worth(alot)less and zero fossil emission cars gaining value. Car makers will follow or witness tesla taking market share