0:06 U.S. To Take on China EV Supply Chain
0:56 EV Sales Skyrocket
1:27 Hybrid Sales Strong
1:52 Plug-In Hybrid Sales Plummet
2:11 Green Cars Hit 4.8% Market Share
2:50 FCA Reports Weaker Earnings
3:17 Camaro Gets Updates
4:07 Ford Lures Customers to Dealerships
4:53 European Luxury Car Sales Drop
5:25 How Lincoln Corsair Design Element Came to Life
This is Autoline Daily reporting on the global automotive industry.
U.S. TO TAKE ON CHINA EV SUPPLY CHAIN
We are about to see the market get flooded with electric cars as automakers race to meet stricter emission regulations. But Tesla is warning that we’re about to run into a shortage of the key materials needed to make batteries. Tesla’s global supply manager for battery metals told an industry conference that we’re facing shortages of nickel, copper and other metals in the long-term because of underinvestment in mining in the U.S. China currently dominates the supply chain for battery materials. So, to take on China, U.S. Senators, Lisa Murkowski and Joe Manchin plan to introduce legislation that will streamline regulation and permitting requirements of mines for lithium, graphite and other materials needed for batteries for EVs.
EV SALES SKYROCKET
Speaking of battery electric cars, sales shot up 88% in the US market in April compared to a year ago, and almost all the credit goes to Tesla. The Jaguar I-Pace and Audi e-Tron are new entries to the segment, but their sales are puny, just a little over a couple of hundred units each. Tesla was up 107%, and that wasn’t just because of the Model 3. The Model S was up by double digits and the X was up 104%.
HYBRID SALES STRONG
OK, so how are sales of other green cars doing? Hybrids were up 34% thanks to strong performances from the Toyota RAV4, and surprise, surprise, the Ford Fusion hybrid, which is now the second-best selling hybrid in the American market. Yep, even better than the Prius. The Honda Accord hybrid and the addition of the Honda Insight also helped drive hybrid sales higher.
PLUG-IN HYBRID SALES PLUMMET
But plug-in hybrids sales are abysmal. Sales plummeted nearly 34%, with big drops coming from the Chevrolet Volt and Toyota Prius plug-in. Sure sounds like car buyers who want green cars are gravitating to regular hybrids or battery electrics.
GREEN CARS HIT 4.8% MARKET SHARE
When you lump all these green cars together–hybrids, plug-ins and electrics–they hit 4.8% market share in April, which I think is an all-time record. We’ll have to watch how this develops as the year progresses, because if they get 5% market share, I wouldn’t call it a tipping point, but I would call it a significant development.
FCA REPORTS WEAKER EARNINGS
FCA reported its first quarter earnings and they came in a bit below what Wall Street was expecting. FCA sold just over one million vehicles, which was down 14%. Revenue dropped 5%, but it’s net profit and cash flow plummeted in half. FCA says this was expected and it’s standing firm on its guidance that it will be solidly profitable with decent margins by the end of the year.
| FCA Q1 2019 EARNINGS |
| Sales |
1 M |
-14% |
| Revenue |
€24.4B |
-5% |
| Net Profit |
€508M |
-47% |
| Cash Flow |
€1B |
-52% |
| Source: FCA |
CAMARO GETS UPDATES
Sales of the Chevrolet Camaro are up a solid 8% this year and they could maintain that momentum because Chevy just gave it a few updates The SS gets a somewhat swoopier front-end and headlamps that were first shown on the Camaro Shock show vehicle at SEMA last year. A new LT1 performance model has been added to the lineup, which is powered by a 455 horsepower V8 engine. It’s also the most affordable V8 Camaro, with a starting price of $35,000. And lastly, a new 10-speed automatic transmission is available for the 3.6L V6 in LT models, which should improve fuel efficiency and drivability. The 2020 Camaro goes on sale this fall.
FORD LURES CUSTOMERS TO DEALERSHIPS
Nearly two-thirds of Ford owners don’t return to the dealer when their cars need to be fixed. So to try and turn that around, Ford is launching a new service, to get customers to go to the dealership to get their vehicles serviced. Called FordPass Rewards, which is part of its FordPass app, customers who buy or lease a new Ford vehicle receive three complimentary maintenance visits to the dealer and they can earn points every time they go to the dealer for service. The company is also expanding a pilot program that allows customers to arrange maintenance service at their homes or work. It’s currently in California but it’s expanding to dealers in Texas, Illinois, New Jersey and Florida. The company may expand it again based on the results.
EUROPEAN LUXURY CAR SALES DROP
Hey, what’s going on with sales of European premium luxury cars? They really took it on the chin last month, dropping 9%, falling far faster than the rest of the market. Audi, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche fell even more than that. Could it be the Tesla effect or is something else going on? I’d like to hear your thoughts too.
HOW CORSAIR DESIGN ELEMENT CAME TO LIFE
Lincoln is really upping its game when it comes to styling. And one of the reasons is thanks to breakthroughs in manufacturing that are making it possible to add more expressive design elements. On Autoline This Week, David Woodhouse, the Design Director of Lincoln, explains how the manufacturing team was able to implement what they call the S-Curve styling element located on the side of the new Corsair.
(The ATW preview is only available in the video version of today’s show.)
For a deeper dive into Lincoln’s new styling direction, you can watch that entire show right now on our website, Autoline.tv or you can find it on our YouTube channel.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show, thanks for watching and have a great weekend.
Share
Permalink
Comments (50)
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:21 pm
Part of the sales drop in premium brand sales is no doubt due to the ramp up of Tesla 3 sales, but also, could it be that more people are starting to realize that you don’t get much for your substantial extra money when buy a premium nameplate? The interiors of the more expensive brands are nicer, but beyond that, pretty much everything has “trickled down” to mainstream brand cars.
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:26 pm
Since overall sales are not even barely up, all that growth in Tesla should come at somebody’s expense, especially same-priced models like the 3 series which the Model 3 easily beats in performance.
1 One can argue that actually the puny price difference is much LESS than the far superior QUALITY and Luxury. AND Luxury car buyers can compare their cars to Rollses and Bentleys and it is THERE where your explanation is far more valid, how much more luxury do you get in a Bentley that costs 3 times that of the Mercedes S class??
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:34 pm
1 and further, if consumers thought as you did, even you yourself would never have bought a Prius, a Corvette, and especially the Mini, since they are not so much better than a $12k lousy Nissan Versa or, perhaps worse, a Mitsu Mirage.
I have driven econoboxes for 30 years before I owned the 740iL and the 320 Bl;uetecs for another 10-15 years and the difference is VAST in everything. Totally different animals.
And if it was not so, why would TOyota have to offer Lexus to get sales from merc? Couldn’;t the competent Camry do it?
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:51 pm
I wonder how the conservationists that are in support of EVs and all things green, feel about streamlining the regulations to mining. Those two things certainly are in direct conflict with each other.
The impact from strip mining can be worse than drilling for oil.
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:53 pm
The Corvette and Mini are “specialty” cars, that appeal to enthusiasts. As far as the Prius, I bought it for mpg, liftback utility, reliability, and the smooth, seamless powertrain.
What I am talking about in #1, is that the average driver probably wouldn’t find a 4 cylinder E-Class $20K better, for their purposes, than a well equipped Camry or Accord. I’m talking about new Accords and Camrys, not ones of 25 years ago. Similarly, the average CUV buyer might not find a Lexus RX or Benz GLE that much better than a mainstream brand CUV for $15K less.
“And if it was not so, why would TOyota have to offer Lexus to get sales from merc? Couldn’;t the competent Camry do it?”
We all know that Toyota created Lexus, because a number of people are willing to pay for the difference between an Avalon and an ES, etc. Actually, when Lexus started, their first product was the LS, which was a different car, and a completely different market segment from any Toyota sold in the US.
May 3rd, 2019 at 12:56 pm
John; with EVs hitting 4.8% market share have you found any in depth studies on what the max market share for EVs could be where it would flatline or do all these experts think EVs can fully replace ICE?
May 3rd, 2019 at 1:00 pm
#5 is in response to #3
4 I’d like to know the real, total environment impact of making batteries, but info about that seems hard to find. Also, some of the materials for permanent magnet motors are fairly rare, and the mining and processing may not be too “green.” One “good” thing I’ve read, regarding the motors, is that the magnet, and other materials in the motors are easily, and efficiently recyclable.
May 3rd, 2019 at 1:01 pm
4, Lambo
Thinking similar. There is no free ride when dealing with raw materials. This, the mining of additional battery ingredients, might provide as an equalizer, but in the end, which technology will provide the greenest results; ultimately it will probably by electrification but I’m also thinking it is not going to be as big of a slam dunk as the pontiffs are preaching. Let the competition begin; oh yeah, it already has.
May 3rd, 2019 at 1:23 pm
4 valid points
8 However, the optimists have proven right most of the time. In my memory, whether it was coal in the 19th century, oil in the 20th, or these minerals in the 21st, I doubt very much they will have any impact. For all I know, 20 years from now EVs would not even need those 1,000 and 1,000 lb, 100 kwh batteries, whose cost BTW has plummeted from well over $100,000 in 2010 to $17,600 (per 100 KWH) in 2018, and is still dropping. For all I know, EVs could get their power by induction, underground cables, or whatever. But even if this does not work, humans will find a way. We are really bright monkeys, you know. We have dealt successfully with much, much bigger challenges over the millenia.
May 3rd, 2019 at 1:50 pm
9 Yeah! Battery costs have come down dramatically which also defies the normal rules of supply and demand. Typically as the demand increases so does the price but in the case of batteries the economies of scale have helped reduce cost. Regardless of cost reductions this will increase the need for mining until the better battery is developed. I wasn’t suggesting that the mining impact negates building EVs just that there is still a price to pay. As Chuck commented no free ride and are the conservationists willing to except the affects of strip mining to supply their EVs with batteries?
I could just envision the hippy like protesters picketing a new mine being started as they drive away in their “green” EV. the exact product that is driving the demand for the mine. Pure irony.
May 3rd, 2019 at 1:55 pm
Does anyone know of a graphic for Tesla , or electric cars and sales per state or city? I’m guessing it is mostly around the large urban centers in temperate areas but would like to see. Maybe it shows a large concentration from Santa Barbara to San Francisco …?
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:06 pm
As I said, the optimists are usually right. On major issues such as the overpopulation scare and the wrong, pessimistic UN estimates in the 60s and 70s that the earth would run out of food (Nobel winners lost major public bets on this one) by 2000, to the much less important email I just received, stating that my annual parking fee for 2020 will be $84 (for the whole year!) to park at the brand new, immaculate commuter lot which is less than one minute walk down to my office building entrance.
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:08 pm
11 Half of Teslas are in CA, which is very EV friendly. You can google and find the details for every other state, I have not seen breakdown by cities though.
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:32 pm
#10 – Supply & demand curves probably are still valid. Demand has increased, however, supply has increased since as you mentioned the cost has come down due to economies of scale, & I believe we continue to learn & improve manufacturing & design efficiency.
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:44 pm
11 This is the latest I saw, incl 2018 vs 2017, but there could be more recent data
https://evadoption.com/ev-market-share/ev-market-share-state/
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:54 pm
“…and surprise, surprise, the Ford Fusion hybrid, which is now the second-best selling hybrid in the American market. Yep, even better than the Prius.”
Just in time for Ford to drop the Fusion. There’s some irony for you there. Will the forthcoming Escape Hybrid fill that hole?
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:56 pm
15 That looks like what I found a while back, and is pretty good It’s especially interesting, when you sort by market share. It includes plug-in hybrids which would skew things a little, but probably not much.
A while back, I found something like that for Tesla only, which would be pretty similar for recent years, but states like Texas, where it is inconvenient to buy Teslas would be farther down the list.
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:57 pm
16 Yesterday afternoon I saw an unusual (to me) vehicle on the lot near my office, looked good in bright red-maroon, had “hybrid” on the side, was taller than a sedan/wagon, but sure not a CUV (low ground clearance), looked like a Focus Wagon, on closer inspection it was a Ford C-max. maybe it was the color, maybe the angle I saw it, it looked far more sleek than Amy’s (a neighbor) silver Cmax which looks like a bloated hatch.
May 3rd, 2019 at 2:58 pm
17 CA’s dominance is shocking, because there is really no “Number two”, NY state is second and barely has 10% of CA’s BEV sales.
May 3rd, 2019 at 3:00 pm
Tesla’s have been selling very well here in Western Canada. I have noticed electric charging stations popping up in my travels and government agencies, for example my local city hall,have them up and running.
May 3rd, 2019 at 3:15 pm
20 it was frustrating not to find calendar 2018 Canada EV sales, let alone by Province. The best I found is this:
https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicles-sales-update-q3-2018-canada/
” Nearly 35,000 plug-in electric vehicles have been sold in Canada by the end of September, an increase of 158% compared to this time last year.”
A rough estimate for 2018 12-months would be 50,000-55,000 at best
” For Q3-2018, sales peaked at over 13,000 EVs, a 166% increase over Q3-2017.
At current rates, Canada will see more electric vehicles (EVs) sold across the country in 2018 than the previous three years, combined.
The electric portion of new passenger car sales has risen to 8.3% for all of Canada.
The Tesla Model 3 has retained top-spot as the most-sold EV in Q3-2018…”
May 3rd, 2019 at 3:16 pm
If BEVs sell enough to reduce gasoline demand significantly, the price of gas will drop, making ICE’s more competitive financially. I’d be surprised if ICE’s were gone before 2040, unless there is legislative or social pressure to do so.
May 3rd, 2019 at 3:21 pm
22 the current light-vehicle ICE fleet in the US is some 300,000,000 vehicles. BEVs are probably less than 1% of that. This would not make a noticeable dent in gas prices, even assuming that OPEC will not cut production (as it has many times) to prop up oil prices.
May 3rd, 2019 at 5:04 pm
I’m still pushing the kiss principle—48 volt batt tiny ICE gen as needed. Spent working lifetime in auto repair , retired 25 years ago, spent the time since resto/modding misc collectables. Now sitting in a retirement village “waiting for god”
May 3rd, 2019 at 5:26 pm
Most of you know I am not yet an EV fan mostly due to the lack of charging stations, a common connector among brands, miles between charges and price. As the govt. forces these things down our throat (most people still don’t want one) for a healthier planet, they failed to realize the potential damages due to resource mining. For certain, Larry D and I have a different way of viewing things.
I just read an article by “Interesting Engineering.” A study by a research group in Germany say results show that the Tesla # produces more CO2 than a diesel car. For instance, the 3 produced 156-181 gm. CO2/km. vs a diesel Merc. C220d @ 141 gm,/km. These emissions are a result of not only from production but also in charging the batteries and should not be considered “zero” CO2 emission vehicles.
May 3rd, 2019 at 6:20 pm
When my Infiniti Q50S AWD Hybrid hit 100k last Christmas I was bummed to find out they didn’t have that as an option anymore. I
Love my new QX50 with its Variable Compression Turbo bit I miss the mileage I used to get with battery assist.
May 3rd, 2019 at 6:27 pm
25, Was there any data on what’s involved in producing the car, especially the batteries? CO2 from charging the car would depend entirely on the source of power. Coal and hydro would be a lot different.
May 3rd, 2019 at 8:42 pm
26. All indications are that engine is, basically, a lot of complexity for complexity’s sake, but it sounds like it drives well. Maybe a little tweaking will result actual better mpg compared to other engines of similar power.
May 3rd, 2019 at 8:50 pm
Kit, let me try to find the link to this article. I too wondered many of the same type of questions. Do Germans sill use a lot of coal as a power source? I think it may be time for me to drive a Tesla just so I I can see for myself if…..?
May 3rd, 2019 at 9:04 pm
Kit, try this link. type in the title and you will find many articles of this.
https://interestingengineering.com/a-tesla-model-3-produces-more-co2-than-a-diesel-car-says-new-study
May 3rd, 2019 at 9:09 pm
Remember EVs are way more efficient in moving a car than gas (even diesel). I guess many hybrid users are replacing cars and are willing to go hybrid again (lots of 1st-2nd gen prius owners out there plus those who bought used). They see the better mpg. As for cars, the only emission free car is no car. As for mining minerals for EVs, we are still ignoring blowing up mountains to get at coal and mining gas is nowhere near green (fracking uses precious water and uncertain liquids and leaves it there).
As for the German slump- does this extend to the Japanese (Lexus/Infiniti?) and the English (Rolls/bentley/Range Rover) and premium Detroit (Caddy/Lincoln). Could stricter autoloan terms mean the premium car is less obtainable? Standard cars are getting better equipped and safer (look at what you can get with even a Kia). The Asians have also spent cash on better exterior design. Perhaps Millenials and almost Millenials want utility (like sport SUVs) over historical prestige (look at Subaru success). The move to flatbed trucks leaves out most europeans (only Merc offers a token one). Always has but Trucks are hot sellers
May 3rd, 2019 at 9:15 pm
I watched this today and it was eye opening. Things to consider if you are thinking about buying a Tesla. http://www.youtube.com/watch.?v=tAnJPknzMYQ
May 3rd, 2019 at 9:19 pm
I glanced at the many articles regarding the CO2 emission and can only conclude… there is no free lunch.
May 3rd, 2019 at 9:21 pm
Alright let’s try this again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAnJPknzMYQ&t=57s
May 4th, 2019 at 7:52 am
32 and all others: If I was ever to buy a Tesla (no other EV is even close for the price), I would NOT buy it for the CO2 for SURE, I would not even buy it for the meager gas savings (I only do a few 1000 miles a year and I can easily afford not just $10 but $100 a gallon gas), but I would buy it for its BREATHTAKING Performance, way better than any dirty car.
Maybe those who buy the very few Bolts and Leafs and the other BEVs, all of which TOGETHER are.,.. 10% of what Tesla sells, buy it for the CO2, or, more likely, for the commuting gas savings.
But I am always a bargain hunter, and when even used Tesla Ss with 100k miles and 7 years set you back $40k, I could buy THREE Mercedes S class 2010s for that $, or a tryly outstanding used Rolls or Bentley.
May 4th, 2019 at 8:44 am
29 It looks like about 40% of Germany’s electricity is from coal.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File%3APower-generation-germany_2016.png
May 4th, 2019 at 8:48 am
33 Interesting video. I try to avoid driving into things, but I’d want to be even more careful if driving a Tesla.
May 4th, 2019 at 8:59 am
Reducing mining regulations to save extraction costs really only shift the costs and risks from the mining company (i.e., they benefit with greater profit) to society as a whole (environmental impact) and particularly to the local regions, especially the economically disadvantaged that can least fight the impact, and to the employees of the mining companies.
May 4th, 2019 at 9:08 am
35 After the 2011 earthquake/tsunami/Fukushima nuke plant accident, Japan closed all its nuke plants, but recently reopened them. Germany, which has no earthquakes and no tsunamis, also closed its nuke plants, and for good. I was puzzled that they were scared by the accident in Japan when they have no such risks. Later I read a detailed article in MIT’s “Technology Review” that revealed that the decision to close their nukes (and short term have lots of bad emissions due to coal use) was in order to go whole hog renewables, and specifically solar, and by massive ordering of solar panels from CHina, to drive down their prices with economies of scale and all that, and it seems to have worked. Longer term, Germany’s coal will be less and less from coal. They (and Europe too) are also investing megabucks in EVs and even EV Battery Gigafactories of their own, recently.
May 4th, 2019 at 9:58 am
38 Germany shut down 10 reactors, but 7 are still operating.
May 4th, 2019 at 10:26 am
39 and it had zero reason to shut down any of them, while Japan, which is located in a really bad geological reason safety-wise, has been bringing its shut reactors up again.
May 4th, 2019 at 10:27 am
40 zero safety reason, that is.
May 4th, 2019 at 10:30 am
40 Yes, I realize they don’t have a tsunami risk. You didn’t need to repeat that.
May 4th, 2019 at 10:33 am
42 Not just tsunamis, earthquakes too, unlike many other nations besides Japan, incl CHina, which suffer from earthquakes but build a ton of plants.
I just do not want the main point of German energy policy to be lost, that they did it to make solar panel prices plummet.
May 5th, 2019 at 5:22 pm
38, 43 et.al.
Even in this era of “alternative facts,” misinformation bothers me. Post 38 indicated that Germany had shut down all of their nuclear plants, which is not the case. That’s why I posted #39, nothing more and nothing less.
May 6th, 2019 at 8:51 am
April auto sales in Europe’s (by far) biggest market, Germany:
“Helped by its hot-selling new Model 3, Tesla sales leapt 443 percent to 575 units.”
443%!
Interestingly, the German EV market is still puny. Here is how Tesla did in March in ALL of Europe:
“..The Tesla Model 3 was Europe’s best-selling midsize premium car in March, beating better-established models from BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz.
Tesla sold 15,755 Model 3s in March, putting it ahead of the Mercedes C class, BMW 3 series, and Audi A4, figures from JATO Dynamics show…”
If you go back to the archives of this show, at the time I started posting here, you had all kinds of deniers and conspiracy theorists claiming that Tesla was already… bankrupt and believing none of the facts, only their delusions.
Most of them have disappeared, some come back and do a hit-and-run once a month or so (Joe ring a bell?)
May 6th, 2019 at 8:53 am
con’d (the above and this one from today’s AN Europe)
“The new electric midsize sedan was the best-selling car in Norway, Switzerland and the Netherlands in March. In Norway, it had 29 percent market share,
The impressive debut of the sedan, which starts at 44,500 euros in Germany, made Tesla the No. 25 brand by unit sales in Europe in March, putting it ahead of premium rivals such as Lexus, Jaguar and Alfa Romeo.”
Not a bad start for a bankrupt company…lol
May 6th, 2019 at 9:13 am
It seems we will not soon get actual monthly sales data from Tesla as well as from GM, Ford and FCA. Musk had this excuse for not disclosing them:
“When asked by analysts at Tesla’s last quarterly earnings call whether the firm would disclose deliveries on a monthly basis, Musk called the idea “counterproductive.”
“Sales to a particular country, say, overseas, are affected by when the ship arrives. And so, if the ship arrives on the 31st of the month or the first of the next month, this will make it look like something dramatic has happened,” Musk said on the call. “But actually, the ship was just a day late.”
May 6th, 2019 at 10:45 am
45 It is absolutely ludicrous to call “misinformation” on my post. I posted what I believed was correct. If they have not shut down ALL their plants, there is a good chance they will shut down the rest soon. THis was their PLAN. You keep the petty attacks on my post and STILL miss the HUGE point that I had to make TWICE, that Germany had NO SAFETY REASON TO SHUT DOWN EVEN ONE, I repeat ONE of their nuclear plants, NOR were they scared, but instead theyu had an IMPORTANT, INTELLIGENT plan to cooperate with China and drive down BIG TIME the prices of solar panels. STOP THE BLOODY ANKLEBITING. OK?
May 6th, 2019 at 10:50 am
49 PS I was referring to the lengthy “Technology Review” article from MEMORY. If you are really interested in all the details, google and study it. It should be on MIT’s site. (I get paper copies for free. Very inefficient but apparently they have 90 year old alumni who hate the web and have very deep pockets, so they cater to them and kill trees every two months, and send it to all the tens of thousands of alumni by snail mail…)