AD #2602 – Subsidies Fuel EV Sales, Why Consolidation Hasn’t Occurred in China, Back Seat Reminder Mandate Proposed
May 24th, 2019 at 12:07pm
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Runtime: 10:34
1:03 Back Seat Reminder Mandate Proposed
1:47 EV Sales Fueled by Government Subsidies
3:22 Why Consolidation Hasn’t Occurred in China
6:02 GM Autonomous Vehicle Feedback
6:40 2nd Leg of Buick Regal GS Road Trip
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This is Autoline Daily reporting on the global automotive industry.
BACK SEAT REMINDER MANDATE PROPOSED
A few years back, GM introduced a safety system to remind drivers to check for children in the back seat. And now, new legislation has been introduced in Congress that would mandate the technology. The bill would also require a study to look at the feasibility of making the technology available for older models. Last year, 48 children died of heat stroke in cars and over the last two decades 800 have died. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers said it will review the legislation but it didn’t exactly endorse it either. It pointed out that only 13% of new car buyers have children 6 years old or younger and that it takes two decades for a technology to be installed in all cars.
EV SALES FUELED BY GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES
It isn’t easy being green. Even though sales of electric cars are soaring on a percentage basis, much of that growth is fueled by government subsidies. South Korea has one of the most generous subsidies. It’s not a tax write off, it’s a $13,900 rebate that goes directly to consumers. Some of the bigger cities provide more subsidies worth anywhere from $2,700 to $7,400. Yet only 1.6% of Korean car buyers buy electrics. China recently slashed its subsidies in half to about $3,700 for EVs that can go 240 miles on a charge. EVs with less range get no subsidy at all. But in major Chinese cities like Beijing and Shanghai EV buyers can get a license plate for free, while others have to buy one at auction for over $10,000, so it’s a major incentive to buy electric. In the U.S., Tesla saw a sharp drop in sales as its tax credit fell in half. At some point in the future, electric cars will likely find natural market demand. But right now, they depend heavily on government subsidies to get people to buy them.
WHY CONSOLIDATION HASN’T OCCURRED IN CHINA
Nearly two decades ago, China implemented a five-year plan for its auto industry, which has been updated over the years, that set the goal of having 4 major automakers and 3 to 4 mid-level companies. But instead, there’s still dozens of domestic automakers operating in the country. On Autoline This Week, Michael Dunne, an expert on the Chinese auto industry and the CEO of a company called ZoZo Go, explains why we haven’t seen any consolidation yet.
(The ATW preview is only available in the video version of today’s show.)
Michael Dunne shares a lot of fascinating insight into the Chinese market and you can watch that episode right now on our website, Autoline.tv or you can find it on our YouTube channel.
We test drive quite a few new vehicles! To keep up with the latest cars we have in the Autoline garage, check us out on social media to find out our likes and dislikes. Find us on Twitter by looking for @Autoline or to find us on Instagram and Facebook just search for the Autoline Network.
We provide our insight into the automotive industry, but now it’s time for you to share your opinion. We want to know your thoughts on GM’s attempt to get an exemption from regulators, to allow it to operate a fleet of autonomous vehicles without a steering wheel or pedals. Would NHTSA be nuts to allow this or is it necessary to speed up the development of self-driving cars? If you want to leave a comment, give us a call at 1-620-288-6546 to leave your message, along with your name and where you’re from and we’ll share those in a future show. We can’t wait for your feedback!
2ND LEG OF BUICK REGAL GS ROAD TRIP
Sometimes the greatest things in life happen when you least expect it. We’ve detailed a recent road trip I took and you can find out about the first leg in last Friday’s Autoline Daily. But now on to the second leg. After a very long day of driving we just wanted a place to sleep. After a few failed attempts at hotels that were already full, we tried one last place and this is what we got… the Betty Boop room. I’m going to give you a moment to soak up all its gloriousness… This was in Kingman, Arizona right by the Historic Route 66. In the morning, we ate at a breakfast joint with cinnamon rolls the size of my hand and checked out places with all kinds of motoring-related artwork, including an old VW Bus that had been signed by many who passed by. From here it was only a short trip to Lake Havasu City where we were able to take a few days for R&R. But one of the days we slipped free and made our way south of Phoenix to Maricopa, Arizona and a little place, called the Dwarf Car Museum. It houses the creations of Ernie Adams, a guy who makes miniaturized versions of real cars. And what an amazing guy Ernie is. A true gentleman. He was more than happy to fire his cars up and tell you all about them. He pulled out a chair for us in his shop where he and friend Gene Tweedy are working on their latest creations and we just talked about whatever was on our minds. And I learned the idea of Dwarf Cars had been on Ernie’s mind since he was a little kid. He had once spotted an old refrigerator in a field and thought the curves of the sides and door would make good car body panels. He first made Dwarf Car race cars, which I’m sure you’ve seen tearing up dirt tracks before, but eventually did get 8 or 9 fridges together to make this car. It wasn’t meant to look like any specific vehicle, but Ernie agrees that you can see some old Dodge in there. His other cars are near dead-on replicas. We asked Ernie how he gets them so close to the originals and he sort of nonchalantly says he just measures pictures. Wait, What? Imagine how difficult that must be to measure pictures and still keep the proportions right. Then you add in that everything is all handmade. Each panel started as a flat piece of steel that Ernie hand-rolled and beat out. And then would weld to a bird-cage-like structure that was removed after the entire panel was finished. Every part of bumper and each individual grille piece were hand-pounded over home-made dies. He also makes his own wheels and frames. About the only thing Ernie doesn’t make is the engine and driveline. Those are typically from a late-70’s, or early 80’s Toyota. It’s a very personal experience that we highly recommend. So, why Dwarf Cars and not restore the real thing? We never did ask Ernie, but we get the sense it’s because no one’s done this before.
And a programming note, there won’t be a new Autoline Daily on Monday because we’re taking the day off for the Memorial Day holiday.
But that’s it for today’s show, thanks for watching and we’ll see you again next Tuesday.
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Comments (39)
May 24th, 2019 at 12:36 pm
On GMs attempt to get an exemption on their AVs to operate on public roads with no steering wheels and pedals; I just have to ask WHY? I’m not sure what information they could possibly gain in a vehicle without a steering wheel that they couldn’t gather with one with one.
The only advantages I can fathom is, if they do have an accident their is not driver to blame for not taking control like with the UBER AV and it will go a long way toward giving the public an example that might gain some trust in the technology if it works perfectly.
May 24th, 2019 at 12:49 pm
The problem with mandating the back seat reminder is it becomes mundane. Having driven a rental with this feature at first I was like why is the car still dinging and then I saw the message on the dash. By the second day I don’t even remember it going off. Its like living near an airport or RR tracks. After a while it just becomes ambient noise.
If they really want it to be affective they should provide about 40 different chimes that each time the car is shut off it rotates to the next one so it takes 40 times before you hear the same chime. It also should be able to be disabled for those that do not have little ones.
Todays report on EVs again emphasises that the sales numbers of EVs are falsely inflated by subsidies. Not debating if its the right thing to do but saying without help the sales will and are falling. The technology is very obviously available but that doesn’t mean its affordable. Without help EVs may flatline.
May 24th, 2019 at 12:56 pm
What a great find that Dwarf Car Museum was. Thanks for sharing!
I’m still shaking my head at the thought of forming all those body panels from scratch and by hand. Incredible. This guy needs greater recognition.
May 24th, 2019 at 1:07 pm
#2. So, wait a minute… Are you saying, Lambo2015, that the rear seat warning chime in the rental you had was a regular occurrence? I thought for certain it would be triggered by some sensor in the back seat letting the car know that someone was back there.
Kinda like the front passenger seat in my ’06 LS430. The car has air vents in the center stack that automatically reciprocate side to side between driver and passenger. But when there’s no passenger in that seat, the system knows to reciprocate air only on the driver.
May 24th, 2019 at 1:16 pm
Back seat reminder seams lame.
Noticed the new RAV4 we test drove had the rear seatbelt reminder that is already in other countries.
China can resolve their company issue by forcing them to merge given the control they have.
Some subsidies are ok if part of a long term plan that benefits the majority of people. Hard to predict the EV tipping point in the US; I do like the quietness and lack of exhaust for EVs
May 24th, 2019 at 1:31 pm
Operating cars without pedals and a steering wheel is like how my Uncle Bob taught his kids to swim. Throw them off the dock. Most swam and the one that didn’t he fished out, rested a bit and threw back in.
Don’t know how this works with cars.
May 24th, 2019 at 1:37 pm
2 I guess I misunderstand what the back seat reminder does. I thought it beeped if you got exited and walked away from the car with something like a kid in the back seat. Does it beep at you while driving, for some reason?
May 24th, 2019 at 1:39 pm
7 That’s “I thought it beeped if you exited and walked away from the car with something like a kid in the back seat.”
May 24th, 2019 at 1:54 pm
@MJB – Not all back seat reminders operate in the same way. GM and, I think, Nissan both base it on the sequence in which you open and close doors. If you open a rear door and close it before the front is opened and closed, the reminder will go off when you stop the vehicle and shut it off. Hyundai has a system in the new Santa Fe that uses a motion sensor. If it detects movement and the vehicle is off it will beep, then blare the horn and then send a message to your smartphone. So, there is some difference.
May 24th, 2019 at 1:57 pm
I usually just read the transcript, but watched the video today, to see the dwarf cars. Amazing! How are there enough hours in a lifetime for him to pound out all of those body panels, especially curvy ones like the ~1951 Mercury?
May 24th, 2019 at 1:58 pm
Conventional seat sensors can be too easily tricked by a child seat that is left in-place…. often empty. So, I believe Chevy’s rear seat monitor simply remembers that the rear door was opened prior to the start of the trip or sometime during the trip/key-on cycle. But why should I be nagged for leaving a sports duffle bag or briefcase back there? The frequency of “innocent/benign” rear usage versus failure mode usage (admittedly catastrophic) does not seem to warrant such a device. In the name of Customer Satisfaction, Chevy allows the customer to disable the feature. But if becomes regulated, I suspect the Nanny State will not allow it to be disabled.
May 24th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
Are we as a society so stupidly distracted that we can forget our children are with us? When my kids were young and I have 3 that were all in car seats at the same time. I never once forgot that I had them with me. I know it sounds cold hearted but seriously where does it end?
#4 The vehicle I drove,(I think a Hyundai Tucson) that had this feature dinged with each time I shut the vehicle off. I’m not sure what triggered it as I did keep my laptop on the backseat. I was by myself so the first time it went off I just chuckled to myself as I found it odd to be notified to check the rear seat. Like a horror movie and did the car know something I didn’t?
May 24th, 2019 at 2:28 pm
#12. Short answer…”Yes”
You heard the stats of infant car deaths. Due to the absent-mindedness of the few, there have been just enough incidents to warrant a new mandate that impacts the many.
Think back to the landmark, ‘shark-jump’ case of 1994 – Liebeck vs. McDonalds. When a 79-year old woman sued Mickey-D’s essentially because her coffee was too hot. AND SHE WON!! (still scratching head over that one…)
May 24th, 2019 at 2:31 pm
I guess that McDonald’s lawsuit wasn’t all bad, because it wasn’t until after it that those ubiquitous ribbed cardboard cup holder sleeves got invented. You can’t buy a cup of coffee, hot chocolate, or tea without one nowadays.
May 24th, 2019 at 3:04 pm
those dwarf cars are amazing,and thanks for sharing your road trip,great fun,enjoy the long weekend
May 24th, 2019 at 3:33 pm
Re: back seat mandate—–as comedian Ron White often says—” You can’t fix stupid “
May 24th, 2019 at 4:08 pm
I’d like to see all cars get rid of steering wheels and pedals and use a joy stick controller mounted either in the center console or in between the drivers legs like a helicopter uses instead, I’m tired of using 20th century controls for my 21st century vehicles. But then, I’m kooky that way…
May 24th, 2019 at 4:09 pm
Cars need phone jammers. That would save a love my lives than the “kid in back” warning.
May 24th, 2019 at 4:12 pm
That’s “lot more lives.” I need to turn off that predictive text thing, that comes up with weird stuff sometimes.
May 24th, 2019 at 5:42 pm
Reasonable governments that understand the dangers of global warming understand that an investment in alternative propulsion systems development as a potential way to keep its citizens alive and prospering on a long term basis.
You might look back on the Apollo program that took us to the moon in the 60s as an example of valuable and worthwhile government investment to develop technologies.
May 24th, 2019 at 7:28 pm
20 The Apollo program was certainly impressive at the time, as science fiction became reality. As far as going back 50 years later, I don’t see the point. It would create some jobs where I spends 2/3 of the year, though.
May 25th, 2019 at 8:35 am
“Dwarf” cars, or, more politically correctly, “Little people’s cars” roamed the roads of Europe all through the 50s and early 60s. There was a ton of them. BMW ISetta, Messerschmitt, even the original (NOT the bloated heavier and much larger current ones!) Fiat 500 and Mini were all “dwarf cars”. And there is no need to put a real auto engine in them, such as the Toyota engines this guy used, they usually had motorcycle engines, and not big ones either, 200-300 cc.
I was too young to see many of the above in the flesh but I do remember BMW 700s, a car that pretended it was a real car but was actually quite small, narrow and short in both length and height, although looking like a real car.
As for this guy who spent half his life making those cars, I assume he got a huge kick out of it, but because he made them himself with crude instruments, as a tourist, I don’t know if I’d go out of my way to visit his garage. I’d rather go to Jay Leno’s.
May 25th, 2019 at 9:26 am
22 I remember seeing an Isetta in regular use in Indiana, probably in the late ’50s. I don’t remember seeing any Fiat 500-600s in the US, but I have seen a few in regular use in Europe, as recently as probably the ’90s.
While the original Mini was very small, ~120 inch length, it had a “real” car engine, the smallest being an 850 cc four cylinder of the same family as used in the rear drive Morris Minor. The original Mini had one “feature” of a Model T Ford, and many motorcycles; the engine and transmission used shared oil.
May 25th, 2019 at 7:05 pm
Doing my weekly shopping at noon today, I parked next to a ‘dwarf pickup’, obviously it was not from the last two decades, very squarish and short in height, width and length, a Chevy (did not bother to look for the model name) but it had a dark green electric sort of custom paint job plus some white stripes or artwork on the sides.
Yesterday I was behind a Toyota Hybrid RAV4. It looked good from the back, no crazy flares. The air smelled very unhealthy (I had the sunroof and some windows down), obviously not due to the RAV4, other cars near me included a Wrangler, a Prehistoric Rustbucket Geo Prizm Corolla Clone with a bad exhaust (maybe the culprit), or maybe it was my own fumes but I doubt it.
The other day I saw my first Cruze Hatch or 5-door, from the back also, it looked too similar to a 5-door Focus, same proportions, sheetmetal, windows and probably dimensions too.
May 25th, 2019 at 7:21 pm
24 The little Chevy badged pickup was probably an Isuzu, which Chevy called Luv.
You mention Cruze and Focus hatch, which I like, and are both going away. I guess I didn’t help them, since I bought neither.
I looked up the engines used in the Adams dwarf cars, and at least two of them used a 1300cc pushrod four used in some rear drive Corollas. I suspect the engine is physically small, and would be easy to use with the entire Toyota powertrain. Those engines might be hard to find in the US, though, last used nearly 50 years ago.
May 25th, 2019 at 7:32 pm
25 Actually when I first saw the Cruze hatch from behind I thought it was one of these Hyundais (Veloster or whatever). Later I saw the back of the Focus hatch and it looked quite similar to the Chevy.
Just checked the diesel prices again, and no change, very recent reading, 6 PM today, still $2.81 (or $2.16 for me) and $2.99 for regular. It’s hard to empty the 21 gallon tank, it is still more than 1/4 full and the range indicator sez 242 miles
May 25th, 2019 at 7:34 pm
25 I came close to buying a used FOcus Electric with very low miles and an asking price of $10k, as a second car for all but long trips, but upon examination of its Carfax noticed it had a serious defect and had to be taken back to the factory and fixed, and did not want to take the risk. Even its tiny winter range would be sufficient for most of my local driving here.
May 25th, 2019 at 7:41 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Focus_Electric
“Ford indicated that a battery of an all-electric vehicle similar to that of the Focus Electric (which had a tiny 26 KWH battery!) weighs around 600 to 700 pounds and costs about US$12,000 to US$15,000, or between US$522 and US$650 a kilowatt-hour.[23] Researchers estimate that the production of the battery emits 140 kg CO2 per kWh of capacity.[24] The Focus Electric has a top speed of 84 mph (135 km/h)”
That 84 MPH top speed would be ok around town but I would often reach it on the highway. The old Pontiac 2000 from 1983 did better than that, probably 95 or so.
May 25th, 2019 at 8:15 pm
It looks like the Focus EV was not a very serious effort. CR got 10.2 seconds 0-60, and 75 miles range, as opposed to 6.8 seconds and 250 miles for the Chevy Bolt. I suspect they artificially limited the top speed of the Focus to 84, so it would have at least 25 miles or so of range in real world driving.
May 25th, 2019 at 8:36 pm
28 I guess EVs aren’t so environmentally friendly after all, even beyond the source of electricity. Based on what you found about CO2 generated from battery production, making the small battery of the Focus EV would generate the same amount of CO2 as burning the gas to drive a Camry hybrid about 18,000 miles.
May 26th, 2019 at 7:07 am
30 Even if this is true, first, the source is Wikipedia, so one can’t use it as a reference in a tech paper (unless their ref is legit, and you use that one), second, it is 18k miles on the Camry Hybrid, not the Dodge Hellcat, and third, even then it is pretty good, really, if to make it you emit less than 20k miles on a 45 mpg car, when the average car does 200k miles lifetime, and this is equivalent to 400k miles on the Camry Hybrid.
The Focus Electric was made until 2018, unbelievably. It started in 2011.
EV deniers and skeptics should actually study the Focus Electric and compare it to today’s EVs, esp the Teslas. And realize what HUGE progress was made in just a few years.
May 26th, 2019 at 1:26 pm
31 Yeah, true, and even making a big enough battery to have 200+ mile range would only generate CO2 equivalent to ~50K miles in a 45 mpg car, or 30K miles in a more typical vehicle.
That Focus Electric was part of an attempt by Ford to be a “leader” in EVs and hybrids. From around 2011-2013, they introduced the Focus EV, the Fusion and C-Max hybrids, Fusion and C-Max plug-in hybrids, and maybe something I’ve forgotten.
May 26th, 2019 at 1:56 pm
To me, it’s impressive how little progress has been made in mainstream EVs in 20-some years. Motor Trend got 7.7 seconds 0-60 for a GM EV1. The car had about 75 mile range with lead-acid batteries. Replace those lead-acid batteries with today’s lithium batteries, and minor changes to the electronics to accommodate, and you get at least 250 miles range. Yeah, it’s a two seater, but still, performed impressively for a car from more than 20 years ago.
May 28th, 2019 at 9:30 am
33 Yeah I’m not a big believer in conspiracy theory’s but there is no doubt companies will buy technology to bury it, if it could potentially hurt their bottom line. Many people have heard the folk tales of the guy that develops a 100+ MPG car only to have big oil buy the patent and the device never sees the light of day. Makes ya wonder if maybe big oil companies are still putting up roadblocks for EVs or has the technology really not improved that much? Same could be said for the MPG of a gas engine.
May 28th, 2019 at 10:07 am
34 Except for batteries, EV powertrain technology is nearly mature, with motor efficiency near 90%, and the electronic controls efficient and reliable.
An area where current EVs are far beyond the EV1 is packaging. The EV1 had the batteries in the back seat/trunk area, while today’s EVs have the batteries down low, in space that is largely wasted in ICE cars.
May 28th, 2019 at 10:13 am
I still find it amazing that they would have to put in a warning to check your back seat for your kids. They should be your most valuable asset. I really get irked when I hear the news tell people to put something important back there like their cell phone so they won’t forget the kids. Really? your phone is more important than your kids? I’m sorry ,but if you could possibly forget putting your kids in the car maybe you shouldn’t be driving one. Last time I checked they do still put rear view mirrors in the cars , right?
May 28th, 2019 at 10:15 am
#34 back in the 80s Roush had a Capri getting 60-75 MPG, I was on 20/20 or 60 minutes if I remember. Then you never heard about it again and Jack had the cash to open his NASCAR shop.
May 28th, 2019 at 10:37 am
36 I couldn’t agree more and feel that a child who dies from being left in a car is probably better off than being raised by parents that need to be reminded that they have their baby with them. Remove all warning labels and weed out some of the dumb people.
Of course I would never want to see someones baby die in what would be a horrible death. So I guess we need to do certain things to protect the dumb from themselves.
May 29th, 2019 at 7:39 am
While making batteries will of course generate C02, so does fossil fuel and we know that mpg in a EV is ALOT better (range is another issue). Also C02 is dumped for free into the atmosphere and your taxes.national debt.insurance premiums etc will all rise to pay for whats dumped for free now.