This is Autoline Daily reporting on the global automotive industry.
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MERRILL LYNCH SLASHES EV FORECAST
Electric cars are very much in the news today. Merrill Lynch revised its forecast for sales of electric cars in the U.S. market, because it now believes that total EV costs are not coming down as fast as it expected. So it’s slashing its sales forecast in half. It now says that EVs will reach 5% market share in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 10%. And they’ll reach 15% in 2030, down from 30%. It says the average transaction price for EVs in 2025 will be $42,000, which prices them out of reach for most consumers. But it believes EVs will reach cost parity with ICEs around 2030, and based on its market share forecast, that would translate into 2.5 million EVs being sold every year in the US market.
CR SAYS EV TAX CREDIT SHOULDN’T GO TO LUXURY BUYERS
Along those lines, Consumer Reports came out yesterday calling for the U.S. Congress to extend and expand tax credits for those who buy EVs. But it wants one critical change. It does not want EV tax credits going to people who buy luxury cars. It says there should be a price cap but does not say what that cap should be. We here at Autoline have said it should be capped at the average transaction price for light vehicles, which right now is about $36,000.
TESLA ANNOUNCES MODEL 3 PRICING IN CHINA
Tesla announced the price for the Model 3 that’s made in China. The base price is about $47,500 for the standard range plus version. That’s about $7,000 cheaper than the version it imports from the United States. Reuters reports that Chinese customers will have to put down a deposit of $2,800 and wait 6 to 10 months to get their cars.
MINI EV PULLS BOEING AIRPLANE
And MINI is having some fun showing off the capabilities of its upcoming first pure electric vehicle. It put together this video of a close-to-production prototype pulling a Boeing 777F airplane that weighs 150 tons. The video, which was created along with Lufthansa, is the first in a series of videos the company will be posting on social media in the lead up to its introduction. Called the MINI Cooper SE, it’s based on the MINI 3-door and will go into production at the company’s plant in Oxford, England in November.
VOLVO TESTS MIXED REALITY IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
To help improve product development, Volvo has partnered with Varjo, a Finnish company that makes augmented reality goggles, to create a mixed reality approach to evaluating designs, prototypes and safety features. The technology makes it possible to wear the headsets while driving a car, so virtual elements, like a pedestrian or moose, can be overlaid on the road. Not only does it look real to the driver, the car’s sensors also react to the virtual image. This allows designers and engineers to drive cars and evaluate features in a simulation, years before the car exists. Volvo says this technology could help cut costs, since problems can be identified and addressed earlier in the development process.
CADILLAC REVEALS CT4-V & CT5-V
At an event in Detroit yesterday, Cadillac unveiled the new V-Series versions of the CT4 and CT5. Under the hood of the CT4-V is a turbocharged 2.7L engine that makes 320-horsepower and nearly 370 lb-ft of torque. The CT5-V has a twin-turbo 3.0L V6 that makes 355-horsepower and 400 lb-ft of torque. If those numbers sound a little underwhelming for a V car, that’s because these are the entries into V-Series. There will be more track-focused cars coming soon. Both cars feature 10-speed transmissions and rear-wheel or all-wheel drive. They will also be the first Cadillacs to have the 4th-generation of magnetic ride suspension. Brembo front brakes come standard and will be available in 4 colors. And we finally have word that Super Cruise, Cadillac’s hands-free driving feature for the highway, will be available on all V-Series models starting in 2020. Pricing will carry a $6,000 to $7,000 premium over sport models.
WAYMO TO TEST SELF-DRIVING SEMIS
Waymo has been testing its fleet of self-driving passenger vehicles in the Phoenix area for several years and now it’s getting ready to test autonomous semi-trucks. The trucks will start testing on highways around Phoenix this week and will expand to more routes in the future. Two riders will be in each vehicle. The trucks use the same technology as the passenger vehicles but are configured differently.
PENSKE BULLISH ON FUTURE OF AUTO INDUSTRY
Roger Penske is a living legend in the automotive industry and he’s this year’s recipient of the SAE Foundation’s Industry Leadership Award. Roger is a fierce proponent of the auto industry and he believes there will be a lot of job opportunities for young people in the future.
(The ATW preview is only available in the video version of today’s show.)
You can watch that Autoline This Week with Roger Penske right now on our website, Autoline.tv or you can find it on our YouTube channel.
But that’s it for today, thanks for watching and have a great weekend.
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Comments (28)
May 31st, 2019 at 12:31 pm
The reveal of those two V series Cadillacs (plus my recent viewing of a Hoovies Garage review of the ’66 Imperial) got me to thinking…
I wonder how many of today’s drivers would consider a (modern day) sedan that rides like the land-yachts of old. Even though I’m only 48, I really love the feel of floating down the road in one of those old-school palaces on wheels. I know that in order to compete and stay relevant Cadillac, Lincoln, Buick (and Lexus) had to cram performance and agility into their product offerings. But those qualities ALWAYS stiffen the ride quality, thus lessen that ‘lap of luxury’ feel.
Sean/John (or anybody), which sedan’s ride would you say comes closest to the land-yachts of the 60′s 70′s and even some 80′s?
May 31st, 2019 at 12:38 pm
Quite a few of us here at Autoline Daily commenters have aped the Merrill Lynch EV forecast and CR’s tax credits rhetoric; maybe they were watching our comments and finally came around to a more realistic point of view.
CT4/5 “V” should have retained the proper moniker of V-Sport; these are not “V” series contenders; any assuage to the true “V” series is a drain on the superior “V” series legacy.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:07 pm
GM needs to offer that 320hp 2.7 Turbo engine in the 2020 Chevy Equinox and GMC Terrain. Eliminate the 1.5 Turbo currently offered in those vehicles.
Also add height adjustable seatbelts merging from the “B” pillar. The lack of adjustability puts a strain on both the drivers and front passenger’s necks.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:11 pm
I highly recommend watching this week’s ATW #2314 with Roger Penske. John does an excellent job interviewing Roger Penske. Roger is amazing and full of insight and foresight into the automotive industry. Roger Penske is a true GIANT in the automotive industry.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:16 pm
Not really surprised by the EV forecasts being cut in half. They should probably do the same for AV. I still don’t believe that even in 2030 which sounds far out but essentially is just 10 years away that EVs will make up 15% of US sales. I believe it will cap out at 10% unless there is a major breakthrough in battery technology.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:20 pm
On the V-series cadddys. The HP numbers are not as much a concern to me than actual performance. The car could have 200hp but if can turn in a 13 sec 1/4 mile then its enough HP.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:31 pm
#1 I think the last Cadillac to give you that truly soft boat like ride was as recent as 2011/12. The 2 ton Cadillac DTS was still kind of a boat with a soft ride and pretty large trunk. What they are truly missing is a convertible. The last Cadillac convertible was the 1976 Eldorado. Well unless you count the Corvette sibling XLR which certainly didn’t have a soft ride.
May 31st, 2019 at 1:41 pm
Are there very many potential Mini buyers that also need to tow a 150 ton plane, or anything for that matter?
Really dumb advertisement Mini. Does this portray that the Mini EV is Quick, has a long range, fun to drive? Oh its capable of doing something no one will ever use it for. Id be more impressed with them powering a whole house during a power outage.
May 31st, 2019 at 2:44 pm
@MJB – The only sedans I can think of that ride like old land yachts at the moment are really expensive luxury cars. But I’m going to keep thinking about this.
May 31st, 2019 at 4:58 pm
Sean, I was thinking the exact same thing. i.e., Rolls and Bentley.
Pretty much anything with air-ride suspension is going to be as close as we can get in mimicking the ride dynamics of the heavy-gauge steel body-on-frame behemoths of old. With half a city block of wheelbase to help offset the effect of bumps and potholes, it’s easy to see how an otherwise average gas shock setup could seem so smooth. Not to mention that suspension bushings back then were a heck of a lot closer to rubber than the high content polyurethane ones we’ve got in most cars today.
May 31st, 2019 at 5:06 pm
Do these 20 foot long “crew cab” pickup trucks, with the softest available suspension ride like an old Buick? Maybe that’s why people buy them.
May 31st, 2019 at 5:53 pm
10 If they don’t ride like that, there might be a market for aftermarket soft springs, especially for the Ram which has coils on all four corners.
May 31st, 2019 at 6:24 pm
9 It’s really surprising how those “heavy-gauge steel body-on-frame behemoths” don’t weight nearly as much as one might expect. For example, a ’55 Buick weighs only 3900 pounds. I guess all of the steel in those cars is visible, while newer cars have a lot of steel hidden in the structure, to make them crashworthy.
May 31st, 2019 at 6:58 pm
CTS 4 -5 etc wow! what exciting titles ! I miss the Eldorado , Seville & CoupedeVille.
The “Standard of the World” is no more
May 31st, 2019 at 7:06 pm
13 For unknown reasons, cheaper cars like Chevys, Fords, and Toyotas have names, while more expensive ones like Cadillacs, Benzes, BMWs, and Lincolns do not have names. Yeah, it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
May 31st, 2019 at 7:54 pm
Well, Lincoln is adding a couple names, to make the brand more like Ford?
May 31st, 2019 at 8:03 pm
@10 Kit,
I have been a luxery car kind of guy since I was in my early 30′s. (many years ago) Didn’t consider buying anything but Caddilac’s and other comfortable cars. Some domestic, some not.
But I just bought a used Chevy Silverado extended cab fully loaded with the X71 4×4 package.
This thing is as comfortable as most of the luxury cars I’ve owned in the past. I bought it used just to have around to do the things you need to do with a pick up. Towing, Home Depot, etc.
I still miss the last year of the Buick Riviera with the 3800 supercharged engine.
Bought that fully loaded as well with leather, but I think that’s the only way the dealers were ordering them.
Took real good care of that car and loved driving it after some modifications. Unfortunately New England salted roads and rot got the best of it last year finally had to part with it. Difficult decision.
But this truck, I’m starting to enjoy driving this. Will still get a new luxury car within the next 6 months but until then I’m happy.
May 31st, 2019 at 10:50 pm
16 In Indiana, as where you are, many, or most cars die of road salt damage, rather than wearing out or being crashed. I guess the car companies like that.
June 1st, 2019 at 11:22 am
The two leading stories, from today, are EV sales predicted to lag earlier forecasts and Tax Credits are going to the wrong buyers; both of these revelations have been aped from some of us posters for months (maybe they’ve been reading our comments).
CT4/5 “V” series is kind of a slap in the face to the true “V” series and an assuage to the legacy of the original “V’s”. Even with more ‘potent’ “V” series coming, these early releases should have retained the moniker of V-Sport, not V-Series (big difference).
June 2nd, 2019 at 11:22 am
For anyone who’s interested, you can find information about where cars are assembled, and some other related information here:
https://www.nhtsa.gov/part-583-american-automobile-labeling-act-reports
June 2nd, 2019 at 1:04 pm
The information is out there, you just have to find it; nice link, Kit.
June 2nd, 2019 at 2:36 pm
19 A link I’d used for a long time quit working a year or so ago, and I just re-found it. The information is provided by the manufacturers, so the accuracy may vary. Also, there is a lot of missing data, especially 2019 data for Hyundai and Kia.
June 2nd, 2019 at 2:53 pm
Both you and even CR MISS THE BLOODY POINT. IT should NEVER have been a TAX CREDIT, because the poorer buyers will have NO BENEFIT from it!!!! It should be a simple REBATE. Limited to people with BELOW average income, or income not to exceed 10% of average income. NOT a bloody tax credit. whether the EV is cheap or not is IRRELEVANT.
June 2nd, 2019 at 2:55 pm
14 Wrong. Both Rolls and Bentley, which sell for 5 and 10 times what mercedeses sell, even 20 times with options, have NO bloody alphanumeric names, but ALL of them have REAL names.
June 2nd, 2019 at 2:57 pm
4 Not that I believe the EV vorecasts made by the irrelevants on Wall Street, but they are just for the US market. China is twice as big an EV market than the US, and has huge incentives for EVS AND huge dicincentives for dirty cars. Europe has huge potential and is moving away from the diesels and into Encouraging EVs.
June 2nd, 2019 at 4:00 pm
22. Well excuuuse me. I should have said that “brands in the middle” tend to use alphanumeric names, while mainstream brands and those so expensive that their market shares are in hundredths of a percent tend to use real names.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:34 am
Some numbers got shifted. #26 refers to #24.
June 6th, 2019 at 7:53 pm
Coming from a region where seat belts are mandatory, not sure if the fellow winning the contest should be disqualified for not wearing his as I could not see a shoulder belt in use.