AD #2608 – May Sales Better Than Expected, Model Y Likely Made in Fremont, Oil Subsidies Not Keeping People in ICEs

June 4th, 2019 at 11:44am

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Listen to “AD #2608 – May Sales Better Than Expected, Model Y Likely Made in Fremont, Oil Subsidies Not Keeping People in ICEs” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 6:39

0:06 May Sales Better Than Expected
0:40 Best & Worst Sellers in May
1:04 Passenger Cars Continue to Tumble
1:29 Tesla Likely to Make Model Y in Fremont
2:18 Details on GM’s All-New Diesel
3:14 VW Smashes Nurburgring EV Record
3:48 Oil Subsidies Not Keeping People in ICEs
5:10 Head of Jaguar Design Retiring
5:40 Ford Puts Old Water Bottles to Good Use

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33 Comments to “AD #2608 – May Sales Better Than Expected, Model Y Likely Made in Fremont, Oil Subsidies Not Keeping People in ICEs”

  1. Phred Says:

    Thank you for your continued reporting on the sales numbers. I am interested in the psychology of the massive shift to pick up truck sales by the “regular customer”? What are some of the thoughts of your experts and longtime auto industry journalist?

  2. BobD Says:

    With the Model Y so close to the Model 3 in size and likely a little more functional, one would expect the Y would significantly cannibalize the 3. I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing as I’m sure the Y will have a higher transaction price and perhaps a slightly greater profit margin. It would be foolish to think the volume of the Y would be completely additive with no decrease in the S, X, and 3.

  3. Lambo2015 Says:

    So the government spends 10.7 billion on subsidies equalling 4 cents per gallon and then adds excises taxes of 18.4 cents per gallon. Seems like there is a great opportunity to save the American people 10.7 Billion.

  4. Lambo2015 Says:

    3 cont- Also means the excises tax generates close to 50 billion per year.

  5. Cycles Says:

    Considering the much maligned EV tax credit that adds up to ~1.5 billion/mfr spread out over 8-10 years the 10.7 billion annual giveaway to the well established oil industries seems like a huge waste of taxpayer money.

  6. bradley cross Says:

    You are lighting a fire talking about oil subsidies (be prepared).

    Good time to leave Jag as it is struggling

    Model-Y has to be Fremont or China. Might be a good time to buy a used Model-3 once the Y comes out.

    Diesel sales will be interesting, compared with the RAM.

  7. GM Veteran Says:

    I agree that the huge oil companies do not need subsidies made up of our tax dollars. Where could we be as a nation now if these monies had been devoted to new energy research over the last 30 years? Its unfortunate that our government feels that it needs to reward big corporations like this instead of spending money to invest in a better future for all Americans.

  8. Lambo2015 Says:

    So the Chevy diesel @ 277/460 is close to the same HP/TQ numbers of the RAM 240/420. I would suspect the MPG to also be close.

    However I’m not sure why anyone would buy one. They get about 3 mpg better than their gas counterparts which means a savings of about $270 a year in fuel if gas and diesel were the same price. Which they are not and most often Diesel is more which cuts that savings to almost a break even. If not the additive will certainly negate any savings. Just not sure what the advantage is other than diesels tend to last longer.

  9. Kit Gerhart Says:

    6 Yeah, the Model Y should put extra Model 3s in the used car market, as people trade them on Ys for the hatchback utility.

    I expect that Silverado diesel to work well, but I haven’t seen anything about fuel economy. Unless the mpg are substantially better than the gas engines, buying the diesel wouldn’t be a rational choice, but but diesels have a followng, at least for pickup trucks. Looking at current pickups, the Ram diesel got only 1 mpg better overall in CR’s most than an F150 2.7 turbo gas, 20 vs 19 mpg.

  10. Kevin A Says:

    Did you look into the details of the oil company “subsidies”? Anti-oil groups often call “depletion allowances” subsidies when they are not. Depletion allowance is a capital recovery, just like the depreciation you can claim when you buy a new piece of manufacturing equipment. Also, even if there was a subsidy, you should net out any taxes that apply only to oil companies. If you gave an oil company $1 and taxed back $100, you could hardly claim they were getting a subsidy.

  11. Larry D. Says:

    10 Not only that, I have been saying it here again and again and nobody wants to listen, that these UTTERLY insignificant, laughably tiny (as a % OF THIS trillion $ industry) “subsidies” were in place to primarily help NOT the Giant Oil cos but the small INDEPENDENT oil cos who are trying to compete with big oil.

  12. Mike Thaman Says:

    As a former refinery employee, I can tell you that While a barrel of oil does contain 42 gallons, it does NOT yield 42 gallons of gasoline. We will just talk that up to a typo !

  13. Kit Gerhart Says:

    12 Yep, 19-20 gallons of gasoline, 11-12 gallons of low sulphur fuel oil, and various other products.

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=327&t=9

  14. Albemarle Says:

    Sean, I think you meant +20F or -7C. Will still need glow plugs for most of the winter where there is winter.

  15. Lambo2015 Says:

    On pass car sales falling; I still don’t think its as much a decline in the sales of sedans but an evolution of the sedan. Even the pictures of the Tesla model Y is just an evolution of the model 3. People like the higher seated position which makes easier egress and for a better view of the road. Its more about that then wanting an SUV/CUV. I’m sure there will be a few traditional sedans that hold on till the very end and beyond but I truly expect the modern cross-over/CUV to be the replacement for the car as we know it.
    I mean if Porsche, Lamborghini and Ferrari are making SUVs you have to realize the market has changed.

  16. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 If people more people ever start caring about fuel economy again, these CUVs may evolve into station wagons.

  17. cwolf Says:

    For the past couple months I have swapped my car for my wife’s suv. Now, the higher seating advantage became less important as the car is more pleasant to drive. The Border Patrol Agent who lives next door also found a car more pleasing and refreshing when the agency rotated vehicle so perps could not recognize the vehicle. It’s only a matter of time before the pendulum swings in another direction. After all, the main reason for the sedan decline is due to the lack of manufacturer interests only because they can rape the consumer on an SUV and truck sales.

  18. cwolf Says:

    I also believe one main reason to sacrifice sedans is because manufacturers knew it would be impossible to promote the development and sale of EV’s at the same time to update ICE cars. There is no question; If only the manufactures followed the technology available for the ICE, the interest to purchase to buy an EV would be nill.
    Just as marvelous as Larry D thinks the Tesla thinks it is, it may be a fine vehicle, but we all can see that the company is tanking in debt, lies to hold investors and has had their head up their butt about knowing the difference between having a good product and making/ delivering it.
    EV’s are very attractive, but they won’t become practical in a very long time!
    Sorry Larry D…keep dreaming

  19. Lex Says:

    I would like to see the automotive industry bring back the plastic body panels that were used by Saturn. I did not mind the size of the body panel gaps on my Saturn. I did love that they were bent and rust resistant. The underbody peels is a great start – Thanks Ford!

    This might be a great topic for AAH. How the automotive industry is working with the recycling industry and what consumers or the general public can do to help save the planet in some small ways.

  20. Larry D. Says:

    18 do not speak if you have no clue, you are only making a fool of yourself with no help from us necessary.

    Still satisfied with that horse and buggy of yours, BTW?

  21. Anthony Parisio Says:

    Subsidies to oil companies should not be at this stage in their development. They are rich enough without government help. The money we give them is a huge waste of taxpayers’ money! It could be used to help electric clean cars enter into the market. No matter what lies are out in the media, electric cars are cleaner then i.c.e. cars. This would be true even if the electricity was made from gasoline!

  22. Lambo2015 Says:

    17 & 18 Do you really believe that manufacturers dictate what people buy by what they build? Its a free market and if that were the case the Japanese or Europeans would sweep in and offer sedans if there was actually a market for them in the US. The consumer dictates what the manufacturer builds by what is selling and the SUV/CUV is what is selling and so they are scrambling to release as many different sizes and options as possible in that segment.
    Yes there will probably always be a market for sedans and you will find some people that prefer them. Which is why I’m sure some offerings will stick around to satisfy that shrinking market. If the manufacturers actually thought they could maximize profit by dictating what people buy they would go bankrupt very quickly. Its no different than the EV movement. Government can subsidize, rebate, or discount registration and charging but you cant force people to buy something they don’t want. Its not a build it and they will come. Its if it sells make more.

  23. FSTFWRD Says:

    Sedan vs. Trucks?? What is a “sedan” and what exactly is a “truck”?? Just wondering.

    And, I believe that there should be NO subsides for oil or electric cars at all. Why should our tax dollars go to either? I am aware of all the arguments, but really why??

  24. Kit Gerhart Says:

    22. The manufacturers dictate that I won’t buy an rwd car-height wagon. Not even one is available in the US.

  25. Lambo2015 Says:

    24 Because besides you no one wants a RWD station wagon. Or at least not enough people to justify building one. But you can always go buy a used Magnum or CTS wagon. Or if you want new there are at least 3 or 4 station wagons that are AWD.

  26. Lambo2015 Says:

    24 They also dictate that I wont buy a 30k supercar.

  27. Kit Gerhart Says:

    24 It’s hard to know how many people want an rwd wagon, when there are none available. Actually, this is a great argument for standardization of specs between the US, Canada, and Europe. Then, we could buy the various versions of wagons, or other cars sold in Europe by BMW, M-B and others, but not sold in North America.

    As far as AWD, everyone who is here very often that I do not like complexity for complexity’s sake, of which AWD is a prime example, for the use most cars get.

  28. Kit Gerhart Says:

    26 No one in the world can buy a $30K supercar, at least new. Not being able to buy a new rwd wagon is unique to America.

  29. FSTFWRD Says:

    @24/25 I do!!!

  30. cwolf Says:

    @22
    consumer demand dictates eh? Only a few folks want an EV, manufactures loose a ton on each one. So who is calling the shots?
    There are only a limited number of interior colors offered. Is demand only limited to these few ?

  31. cwolf Says:

    Consumer driven is true, but it’s also about profits and the manufactures need to change minds towards what is profitable. Making ICE cars less attractive/ updated is only one way to change ones perceptions. fooling people in making them they NEED a truck or a suv is another.

  32. Len simpson Says:

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_GND_DCUS_NUS_W.htm This graph shows less than 2 cents diff —why bother w/dissel ?

  33. Len simpson Says:

    in cars , that is