This is Autoline Daily reporting on the global automotive industry.
AUTO INDUSTRY ENTERING PROFIT DESERT
Wow, you can’t look at the news today and not come away thinking that the auto industry has hit a massive period of disruption. Alix Partners predicts the industry is entering what it calls a “profit desert.” EBIT margins have fallen from 5.7% in 2017 to 4.6% today and are headed lower. And automaker’s return on capital employed is down to only 2.8%–which is where it was just before the Great Recession. Alix Partners warns that automakers only have a few months to take action to transform their investments and operations if they want to survive the coming downturn.
FORD ANNOUNCES BIG CUTS IN EUROPE
In an action that is directly related to that Ford announced today that it is slashing 20% of its European workforce. It’s closing 6 manufacturing plants and getting rid of 12,000 employees. Even with these cuts, analysts says Ford will have a very tough time meeting its profit targets for Europe.
VW COULD MAKE BILLIONS ON TRUCK IPO
Meanwhile Volkswagen is raising cash by selling stock in an IPO of its truck operations. VW’s truck operations which operates under the name Traton includes Scania, MAN and VW’s own trucks made in Brazil. The IPO will raise $1.8 billion. And VW’s board will vote this month to possibly approve an alliance with Ford which will include co-operation on commercial vans, mid-size pickups and autonomous cars.
AUTOMAKERS FACE HUGE EMISSION FINES IN EUROPE
And here’s another tidal wave about to slam the Europeean industry. Jato Dynamics says European automakers could be fined as much as $39 billion by missing emission targets. By 2021 automakers must average 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer. But they’re struggling to meet that goal, especially Volkswagen, PSA and FCA. The findings are based on 2018 emission levels and don’t take into account upcoming EVs models. But EV sales will probably be too small to make up the difference. Even worse, automotive emissions in Europe have actually been going up for the last two years.
AUDI REFRESHES THE Q7
Audi took a fairly standard approach to refreshing the Q7. It prettied up the front and rear ends while pretty much everything in-between stays the same. The interior was substantially updated, but it’s nearly a carbon copy of the Q8. Depending on the market, the Q7 will be available with two diesel, one gasoline and one plug-in hybrid powertrain. The gas and diesel will be available with 48-volt technology as well. And all are mated to an 8-speed automatic transmission and all-wheel drive. It launches in Europe in September.
BOEING TEAMS WITH KITTY HAWK ON VTOLs
Boeing is expanding its reach into vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, or VTOLs for short. It formed a partnership with a company called Kitty Hawk to collaborate on urban air mobility, or what we’ll call passenger drones. The two companies are using Kitty Hawk’s Cora aircraft, which is a two-person air taxi and has 13 rotors. The plan is to make these VTOLs autonomous and they are developing the safety and regulatory ecosystem that will be needed for them.
TREMOR IS FORD’S NEW OFF-ROAD SUPER DUTY
Ford added a new off-road package for its Super Duty truck, called Tremor. One of the first giveaways are massive 35-inch Goodyear tires mounted on unique 18-inch wheels. The front end was lifted 2-inches on progressive rate springs and large twin-tube dampers, with a rear stabilizer bar tuned to the new springs. A locking rear differential is out back, while a limited slip differential is up front. Off-road running boards and skid plates ensure the truck can shrug off nearly any obstacle. Another unique feature is a rock crawl mode that has been added to the selectable drive modes. The Tremor package is available on XLT, Lariat, King Ranch or Platinum F-250s and -350s with either the 7.3L gas V8 or PowerStroke diesel, 4X4 and single rear wheel. It launches later this year. But so far no word on what it will cost.
WIDEBODY PACKAGE NOW AVAILABLE WITH 4-DOORS
The widebody package that was previously only available on the Challenger Hellcat, is now being offered on the Charger Hellcat. It includes integrated fender flares, wider wheels and tires, Brembo front brakes and unique suspension tuning with Bilstein shocks. The package will be standard on all Charger Hellcats and available on Charger Scat Pack. It’s currently a $6,000 option for Challenger Hellcats.
TESLA NEEDS TO GO ALL OUT FOR PRODUCTION RECORD
In the fourth quarter of 2018, Tesla delivered a record 90,700 vehicles to customers. Now Elon Musk says the company could break that record this quarter but it must go “all out” to reach that goal. The company previously forecasted it would deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles this quarter after delivering only 63,000 in the first quarter.
DOES TESLA HAVE A SECRET BATTERY LAB?
In other Tesla news, CNBC reports that the company has a secret battery lab near its plant in Fremont, California that’s working on developing battery cells. This would help Tesla reduce its dependence on Panasonic, which manufactures battery cells for the automaker. And this news falls in line with Elon Musk’s goal of making the company as vertically integrated as possible.
With all this EV development, how long can the ICE survive? That will be one of the topics on Autoline After Hours later this afternoon. James Martin, a powertrain analyst from IHS Markit will be joining us. So will Lindsay Brooke from SAE Engineering. So join us at 3 pm eastern time on our website or YouTube channel as we try to figure out when electrons will replace pistons.
And a programming note before I sign off, Autoline Daily will be off all next week as the crew takes a well deserved break for the 4th of July holiday.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show, thanks for watching and we’ll see you tomorrow.
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Comments (18)
June 27th, 2019 at 12:30 pm
Wait! Tesla is dependant on Panasonic? I thought Tesla had built a Giga factory in nearby Nevada. So why wouldn’t they conduct their development there? Interesting!
Ford Tremor seems to be a slightly more moderate version of the Raptor without the wide body but surprisingly the bigger motors are offered and no mention of the twin turbo V6.
June 27th, 2019 at 12:50 pm
Is this “Profit Desert” due to the tons of cash being thrown at AV, EV and ride sharing partners?
June 27th, 2019 at 2:09 pm
Profit desert, Is anyone surprised? They are dumping a ton of money into EV tech that loses money on everyone built and the majority of the population doesn’t want or can’t remotely afford.
June 27th, 2019 at 2:43 pm
Thanks to the Autoline ‘heads up’ almost every day last week, I attended the Munro & Associates EV conference. Since then, nothing but silence. Did you go?
Will you be having another ‘After Hours’ with Sandy Munro or your summary of the event?
I was impressed and my trip report link in the ‘Website’ field.
June 27th, 2019 at 2:56 pm
4 Bob your trip report was really well put together and a good read. Thanks
Looking forward to the AAH as I anticipate the ICE has many more years ahead of it. I think the auto manufacturers prepared for a boom that may turn out to be a bust. EVs have some huge obstacles to overcome before they can compete with ICE. It will be interesting to see what the panel has to say on the topic.
June 27th, 2019 at 4:45 pm
The ICE will be around for a very long time!
The Detroit 3 will be the losers because they fail to realize that the average “Joe” can’t afford a $40K truck or SUV. As I said before, Honda or Toyota will capitalize on the car market. The one who keeps their cars updated may dominate market share by hug numbers. If, by chance, I am incorrect, the used car market will go gangbuster in the years ahead.
I just don’t understand why so many are putting all their $ on EV’s! It’s more politics than anything IMO.
June 27th, 2019 at 5:52 pm
If you carve out California sales (with it’s state issued subsidies added to federal subsidies), the EV sales in the remainder of the 49 states are only 1%. I think the ICE will be around for a long time, unless it is forced by government quotas.
June 27th, 2019 at 8:01 pm
cwolf 40K trucks? Are you talking about base models? I watched a video where they compared mid-level trucks from Ford ,Chevy and RAM all were over 50K . the cheapest was over 53K . I know things change ,but when my Dad bought his 01 XLT F150 it was 23K for a extended cab 2WD . I don’t think wages have more than doubled over the last 18 years.
June 27th, 2019 at 9:16 pm
8. Base price of a Jeep Gladiator is about $34K. I bet that’s a high profit machine, especially after you option it up to $45K.
June 27th, 2019 at 10:23 pm
8 Yep, for the price of a pickup truck, you can get something cool, like a Corvette, base Cayman, or a really loaded Mustang or Camaro. Yeah, the pickup would be a lot better for hauling horse manure, or whatever they are used for.
June 28th, 2019 at 9:08 am
8 The good news is the huge stickers on the new trucks makes your Dads 18 year old truck worth still half of what he paid if its in decent shape. Used truck prices are just as stupid as the new ones.
June 28th, 2019 at 9:32 am
6 I really don’t think the big three are going to see an abrupt switch back to sedans. I honestly believe that the CUV is replacing the sedan and many are offered in similar price ranges as sedans. Even the Japanese and European manufacturers are building a ton of these CUVs. So to me that’s more of a evolution of the vehicle we drive. When it comes to EVs that’s where I agree that there will be billions lost as everyone is investing heavily for a market that although will probably prosper in other countries like China. I don’t really see it being more than 10 or 15% of US sales. EVs only work well for the limited consumer that has a garage, Has a daily commute within range, lives in the ideal climate or deals with the reduced range. Lives near where they are actually sold and serviced. Has access to another vehicle for extended trips. Has an above average income to afford the EV and likes the design of one of the limited choices available.
I really see EVs becoming the standard for inner city personal transportation like Uber or taxis. City Busses, garbage trucks, police vehicles, mail delivery, And the many unmanned AV pods that will be developed to do delivery services. So within the highly populated cities EVs will probably prosper and do well and may even find out they need less range and more places to charge. But this is just my 2 cents.
June 28th, 2019 at 10:18 am
12 I mostly agree, but there are many millions of households with two or more vehicles, where an EV would work well for one of them. Still, as long as an EV costs about twice as much as an equivalent ICE car, and there are the unknowns about long-term battery life, most of these people will stick with gas engines.
June 28th, 2019 at 10:52 am
13 Oh yeah that too, is a big factor that is still a pretty big unknown. That’s why leasing would be idea. But again it comes down to cost to benefit and not one EV saves enough gas to justify the extra cost. So buying one for fuel savings is a non-benefit. So you have to give things up like long range and refueling time and pay more for it with the possibility of having a huge bill for battery replacement down the road. Doesn’t sound attractive.
June 28th, 2019 at 11:35 am
Is Tesla relevant? Are EV’s relevant and they really here to stay? In USA pure battery electric vehicle sales are only 1.6% of the market despite BEV’s being available for sale now for many years.
ISSUES WITH 100% BEV’S:
1)High cost – more expensive than ICE vehicle of similar size
2)Low range (not practical for long family trips)
3)Long “refill” time (not practical for long family trips)
4)Little charging infrastructure on roads, highways, and interstate
5)Many consumers do not own a garage where they can plug in to charge
6)Limited segment reach (usually compact segment or high end luxury/sport)
7)Fast chargers are expensive
8)Little value add compared to ICE vehicle
9)Battery fires! (more as of late)
10)Electricity still often generated using “dirty” coal (EV’s are NOT zero emissions)
11)Rare earth minerals used (often with human rights issues with low cost labor)
12)CO2 emissions generated in mining rare earth metals
13) Little appetite for freedom loving Americans to support federal regulations to mandate EV’s or subsidize them.
SOME ADVANTAGES – 100% BEV’S:
1)Quiet (less noise)
2)Save on fuel costs (no gasoline expense)
3)100% torque at 0 speed (potential for high acceleration)
4)Less brake wear (long brake life, lower maintenance)
5)Less things to break down compared to ICE vehicle (increase in reliability and life)
6)Pre-conditioning in closed garage (can pre-heat or pre-cool interior before getting in vehicle)
7)Potential for back-up electricity usage for home in power outage
8)Lower emissions – perceived better for environment
9)Charge at home in garage is more convenient at night then visiting gas station
Until the issues are addressed and the advantages are better marketed to consumers we can expect BEV’s to remain low niche market in the USA.
June 28th, 2019 at 12:29 pm
12, 13, 14 You can’t resist making forecasts, under several wrong assumptions, such as assuming things stay the SAME, even though they BLATANTLY DO NOT, linearity, etc.
How many times have I quoted Stopford:
“Those who gaze in crystal balls eat broken glass”?
Here are some HARD FACTS for you for the US market: (Plug-in EV sales)
2011 17,425
2012 52,607
2013 97,507
2014 122,438
2015 116,099
2016 158,614
2017 199,826
2018 361,307
Does anybody here notice any trend?
Is anybody awake?
June 28th, 2019 at 4:24 pm
16. Larry, Your EV data is not correct and typical way of showing trend that is not real. 1st of all a plug-in hybrid is NOT an EV. It is an ICE vehicle with a larger battery pack. Mostly it uses gasoline. Wards US Sales for 2018 shows 100% pure battery EV sales in USA was 208,573. For 2018 PHEV’s total sales were 123,243. So 100% EV sales for USA for 2018 were only 1.2% of sales! Rather irrelevant. And how many EV sales were by government or fleets? Now that USA is world leader in oil production and Trump admin will stop/slow the CAFE and emissions mandates, the future of EV’s in USA are very poor to say the least. Communist China dictatorship will see much larger EV use due to controlled mandates by force. America was founded on FREEDOM, and clearly 98% + of Americans freely choose not to buy EV’s. There are no strong indications this will change in the future in the USA. EV’s powered by batteries are NOT the future.
Americans are wide awake and are smart!
June 28th, 2019 at 11:51 pm
We have both a Tesla Model 3 and BMW i3-REx:
1)High cost -> We traded in a Prius Prime because we weren’t driving it but just the BMW i3-REx
2)Low range -> After 90 days, 9,200 miles with trips to Coffeyville KS, Richardson TX, Detroit MI, and Tupelo MS.
3)Long “refill” time ->to Detroit, 787 mi, 15:11 (hh:mm), $24.92 SuperCharger costs, 51.8 mph block-to-block speed
4)Little charging infrastructure -> SuperCharger-to-SuperCharger along Interstates and free charging at motel. Around town, free chargers at grocery stores.
5). . . do not own a garage -> newer apartment complexes are installing chargers.
6)Limited segment -> I waited for the standard range Model 3 and ordered it the day it was announced
7)Fast chargers are expensive -> my L2 charger was less than $500 and I got a tax credit that covered wiring and charger. I put a second one at our favorite mini-mall where we shop.
8)Little value add compared to ICE vehicle -> AutoPilot did the Interstate driving up and back. Also, over half of the driving in the Detroit area.
9)Battery fires! -> gas cars also catch fire, along with gas tankers, and gas stations.
10)Electricity still often generated -> using natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar panels. An EV is multi-fueled at less than half the cost per mile of gas.
11)Rare earth minerals used -> in everything including ICE cars, your computer screen, your TV.
12)CO2 emissions -> oil loses ~20% getting from well-to-wheel
13) Freedom loving Americans -> freed from variable gas prices and the need for ‘oil wars.’