AD #2703 – Ford & Tesla Q3 Earnings, GM Cruise Could Get Green Light in 2020, Key Bollinger Details Revealed
October 24th, 2019 at 11:42am
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Runtime: 8:17
0:07 Tesla Profit Surprises
1:09 Ford Earnings Look Grim
2:04 UAW Strike Crawling to a Close
2:43 GM Cruise Could Get Green Light in 2020
3:22 Toyota to Give Level 4 AV Rides
3:51 Animal Accidents Ratchet Up in November
5:05 Brembo Worried Its Brakes Are Too Loud
6:01 Nissan to Axe Datsun
6:49 Key Details of Bollinger’s Trucks
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TESLA PROFIT SURPRISES
We start out today with a couple of third quarter financial reports from Ford and Tesla. Automotive analysts were worried that Tesla would earn less revenue in the third quarter, because even though Model 3 sales are strong, sales of the Model X and S are falling, and they bring in more revenue per unit than Model 3s. The analysts were right. Tesla’s revenue dropped 7% to $6.3 billion. But Tesla was able to cut its operating expenses by more than 14%, and that resulted in a profit. Not much of a profit, only $143 million, a weak 2% margin, and a 54% drop from a year ago. But no one was expecting any kind of profit and upside surprises always bring out the bulls. In pre-market trading Tesla’s stock shot up $46 a share. We can only imagine that short sellers are not happy.
FORD EARNINGS LOOK GRIM
Meanwhile, the numbers at Ford look pretty grim. The company sold 1.2 million vehicles, down 8%. Revenue dropped 2% to just under $37 billion, and expenses rose to over $37 billion so Ford posted an operating loss of $261 million. Thanks to a tax adjustment Ford managed to post a net profit of $425 million but that was a 57% drop from a year ago. In pre-market trading the stock was down 4% and was below $9 a share. Worse still, Ford is shaving half a billion dollars off its profit guidance for the year, and it now risks another credit downgrade, putting it just one level about junk status.
UAW STRIKE CRAWLING TO A CLOSE
The UAW strike at General Motors looks like it might be crawling to a close. So far 60% of the UAW workers who voted approved the contract. But a lot of UAW workers haven’t voted yet, so the outcome is not definite. We’ll get official results late tomorrow afternoon.
GM CRUISE COULD GET GREEN LIGHT NEXT YEAR
GM Cruise postponed the launch of an autonomous ride hailing service because it needed more time to develop the autonomous technology. The service was supposed to launch this year, presumably in San Francisco, but it looks like it might get the green light next year. Autoforecast Solutions reports that GM’s Orion assembly plant in Michigan will start making autonomous cars next March. Internal documents refer to it as the AV1. But Autoforecast warns us that the production date has moved several times and says it would not be surprised if it gets moved again.
TOYOTA TO GIVE LEVEL 4 AV RIDES
And speaking of AVs, Toyota announced it will offer rides on public roads in SAE Level 4 self-driving cars in Japan for a limited time next year. The rides will take place in Tokyo’s busy Odaiba district and will be available from July to September of 2020 in its P4 autonomous vehicle, which is a modified Lexus LS. A safety driver will be behind the wheel to take over if necessary.
ANIMAL ACCIDENTS RATCHET UP IN NOVEMBER
November is right around the corner and that means you need to pay extra attention for deer while out on the road. According to the Highway Loss Data Institute, insurance claims for animal related accidents in November, is more than twice as frequent compared to the yearly average. It looked at claims from 2006 to 2018 and found that the average cost of claims in November was $3,500 compared to $2,800 in February, the month with the fewest animal related crashes. While the data doesn’t include the types of animals involved in accidents, the timing and the damage caused suggest the collisions mostly involve deer. As you can see from this chart, claims rise fast in October, peak in November and start to level off after that. And with more technology and components being added to cars, it’s becoming more expensive to repair vehicles. In 2006, the average cost of an animal strike claim was $2,400 but last year that number jumped to nearly $3,900. So keep your eyes peeled!
BREMBO WORRIED ITS BRAKES ARE TOO LOUD
EVs are much quieter than vehicles with a piston engine and Brembo is worried that people will eventually become annoyed with the sounds that brakes make. So, it’s working to make its braking systems increasingly quiet over time. Since electric motors can aid in slowing a vehicle down through regenerative braking, Brembo is developing lighter systems as well as brake-by-wire mechanisms that don’t use hydraulics. And while Brembo doesn’t think the need for brakes will ever go away, it is concerned the market will shrink. So, it’s also looking to expand into areas like the interiors of vehicles, comfort items and infotainment.
NISSAN TO AXE DATSUN
A few years back, Nissan revived Datsun as a low-cost brand for emerging markets. But in an effort to cut costs, Reuters reports that the company will axe Datsun. Under former CEO Carlos Ghosn, Nissan went through a big expansion in an effort to boost market share. But the company’s new executives want to reign in that growth to get its finances back in order. Other cost cutting measures include, likely getting rid of several variants of the Titan pickup, like single-cab and diesel models, because they’re unprofitable. And the company is also considering closing assembly lines at some of its plants around the world. As we’ve reported, the global auto industry is slowing down, so companies are starting to batten down the hatches.
KEY DETAILS OF BOLLINGER’S TRUCKS
Bollinger Motors announced the price of its electric trucks. Both the sport utility and pickup versions have a base price of $125,000. They are equipped with a 120 kilowatt hour battery that will deliver 200 miles of driving range, have a 5,000 pound payload capability and 15 inches of ground clearance. The vehicles are set to go into production next year and deliveries should start in 2021. The company is also taking $1,000 refundable deposits right now. And if you want to learn more about Robert Bollinger, his company and these trucks, check out the Autoline After Hours show that we did with him back in April.
Speaking of After Hours be sure to tune in later this afternoon, when the Autoextremist Peter DeLorenzo will be on the show. So will Ted West, long-time automotive journalist and the author of the novel Closing Speed which is really about the 1970 world sportscar championship. Be sure to join John and Gary for some of the best gearhead talk in the industry.
But that wraps up today’s show, thanks for watching and we’ll see you again tomorrow.
Thanks to our partner for embedding Autoline Daily on its website: WardsAuto.com
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Comments (46)
October 24th, 2019 at 12:14 pm
Tesla’s net income was not just $146 mill, but $342M (non-GAAP net income ex-SBC)
Compare that with Ford’s measly net income of $425 million.
FORD, a HUMONGOUS company, with hundreds of models vs Tesla’s only THREE, barely making as much profit as … Tiny Tesla, Cwolf’s alleged “Ponzi Scheme”?
In addition FOrd is a MATURE, not an INFANT company, going back 100+ years, and should be raking in the BILLIONS in profits just as its peer TOYOTA does.
My heart goes out to the Ford Family, how will they make ends meet? Genius decision to hire that carpenter from Steelcase, and previously assistant coach or something at UM, Humpty Dumpty Hackett. Way to go Ford!
October 24th, 2019 at 12:16 pm
Bollinger is DOA. Make preps for a discount funeral. Are these clowns KIDDING???? This crude Pickup, that violates all laws of aerodynamics and good taste, looks like it was a science project in the local high school. And they ask for … S class money???? And more? Who are the idiots they believe will shell out that much $ for such a JOKE of a vehicle?
October 24th, 2019 at 12:21 pm
Ford’s big problem, or one of them, is the apparent fiasco with the launch of the new Explorer/Aviator. Those are more interesting than most tall wagons, being the first smaller-than-Tahoe rear drive based tall wagons from a domestic brand since, what, the ~10 year old current generation Dodge Durango.
October 24th, 2019 at 12:28 pm
Maybe Bollinger has found a market of people who want a new Hummer and in the absence of the real thing, they made this phony one. The proportions and the huge ground clearance remind of the H1.
October 24th, 2019 at 12:37 pm
GM and Toyota are making very risky moves to try and first to bring Autonomous Vehicles to public roads. GM has postponed launch multiple times and should continue to do so, and Toyota will have a driver there to take over “just in case”. All they will accomplish is killing the AV craze once either one is involved in an accident. News organizations will sensationalize any accidents regardless whos fault. They will run headlines like “Person dies in accident with AV”. They batter hope they operate flawlessly as the public will not be near as forgiving as when a human makes a mistake.
October 24th, 2019 at 12:39 pm
5 Yep I meant better not batter for those folk that are unable to figure that out.
October 24th, 2019 at 12:40 pm
https://www.wardsauto.com/alternative-propulsion/karma-auto-accelerates-start-demons-surface?NL=WAW-04&Issue=WAW-04_20191024_WAW-04_424&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1&utm_rid=CPENT000009061197&utm_campaign=22850&utm_medium=email&elq2=e75c7f41c5d54ac0aace5a70f1626573&utm_source=27155
Just got my Ward’s daily email, and it reports bleak news for Karma-Fisker that Bob Lutz used to extoll in past shows:
“Sources tell Wards recent leadership changes, on top of an alleged pullback in funding from parent Wanxiang Group, has shaken the company internally, while it is rumored Karma loses about $50,000 on every sale of the $135,000 Revero GT. “
October 24th, 2019 at 12:46 pm
PBS had a show about AVs last night, titles “Guess who’s driving”, and started it with the killing of that 49 year old woman walking with her bike at a crossing in Arizona by a Volvo AV, but did not tells us why the AV did not see the woman and killed her.
For those who are enthusiastic proponents of AVs, it had a good observation, when the AV needs to make a split-second decision like in the above situation, and the AV being basically a computer, what happens if, just like in your computer, when you want it to do something and instead of doing it immediately, it gets stuck for a while (sometimes quite a while) and instead you see this rotating circle icon on your screen? BAD news!
October 24th, 2019 at 12:55 pm
7 The Karma is just a bad product, a plug-in hybrid with 37 miles range, much less than a 2nd generation Volt, and then a truly dismal 20 mpg on gas. Lutz didn’t mention it, but the Karma 1.0 had very poor NVH when the engine was running, and I doubt that switching engines helped much with that.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=41978&id=40924&id=41212
October 24th, 2019 at 1:02 pm
5 Yep, AV deaths will be sensationalized, as EV deaths are still sensationalized. In that regard, the Tesla S got got extra attention from autonews because of the door handles, as we discussed a couple days ago, even though a Jaguar F-type, and probably other cars have “automatic” door handles that aren’t a lot different. As we discussed, the exterior door handles probably didn’t have much to do with the fatality anyway. Maybe the fire did, though.
October 24th, 2019 at 1:03 pm
9 if you saw the video of John Mc driving the new version, when he used the launch control, the car accelerated making a most unpleasant and erratic noise, which should be a deal killer for any buyer used to Ferrari V8 exhaust sounds.
October 24th, 2019 at 1:13 pm
11 Yeah, it didn’t sound very good, and I doubt if it sounded any better inside the car.
October 24th, 2019 at 1:51 pm
8 If I remember right the cause of the bicyclist getting hit was attributed to part of the Volvo detection system being shut off. I don’t remember who’s AV system it was but they claimed the production Volvo system was either causing interference or false readings with their system so they shut it off. Either way it sounded like malarkey and in the end blamed the “back-up” driver cause he was on his phone. Not sure what the end results were as like most stories by time it makes its way through the courts the story is a year or two old and no one remembers or cares. So not sure if the driver was convicted or what was finally settled.
October 24th, 2019 at 1:58 pm
13 It seemed that there was a lot of fault to go around, including the person walking in front of a moving vehicle. I’m a habitual jay walker, but I make sure I can get to the other side of the street without drivers having to slow down for me, or even thinking they need to slow down for me.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:01 pm
13 Wasn’t it Uber’s Volvo?
October 24th, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Surprisingly Michigan isn’t even in the top 5 for car/deer collisions. Falls in at 8th place. Yet 1 in 80 are likely to hit a deer. Link to full rankings.
https://www.carinsurance.com/Articles/odds-of-hitting-deer.aspx
October 24th, 2019 at 2:13 pm
16 Indiana’s not there either. I’ve never hit a deer, but I’ve had a few close calls, usually about this time of year, just before or after dark. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a deer in Florida, but I occasionally see wild pigs, which can do significant damage to a car.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
14 15 It was an Uber Volvo, but I don’t see how the fault in an AV and pedestrial collision would ever be with the pedestrian unless they are al Qaida or Taliban Saboteur-Terrorrists or something.
The fault was not with the human driver either, if the AV needs his help it sucks.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
16 Michigan’s #8. I can’t find a list that goes farther down than 12.
https://moneywise.com/a/worst-states-for-deer-crashes
October 24th, 2019 at 2:17 pm
So how far is Ford going to fall before they give Hackett the Hatchet? They have done nothing ,but nose dive into the abyss since this genius began running the company ( into the ground)
October 24th, 2019 at 2:20 pm
MI has a million deer and they are laws that allow to kill some of them (besides the open season). I never hit a deer or even a squirrel or racoon in 37 years here, but last year early one morning (still dark) as I was driving on the parkway (divided) where the limit is 40 and people drive 50+, I saw two very young deer on the street and was able to brake and did not touch them.
Once as I was driving cross country I heard a thud on my windshield and I never found out what it was, it sure was no bug, either some bird or debris, either bounced off and did not leave a mark, but the windshield did not crack.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:23 pm
18 To me, if a pedestrian walks in front of a vehicle, not on a crosswalk, in a way that forces the driver to brake or steer to avoid hitting them, the pedestrian is partly at fault if they get hit. No, of course I’m not saying they “deserve” to get hit or die, but they certainly took undo risk of something bad happening.
As far as the autonomous car, yeah, it should do better in such a situation than the average, often distracted human driver.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:29 pm
Getting ready for my November in China. My return trip on Nov 30 leaves Shanghai on 11:40 AM and arrives in Detroit Metro the same day on 12:18 PM, total of 38 minutes. Take that, Concorde!
October 24th, 2019 at 2:32 pm
22 not if the vehicle is an AV, they are supposed to prevent this kind of accidents that humans have.
BTW I always take a risk crossing the parkway crosswalk every morning in the dark, as I walk to the office, try to do it when no cars are coming, but sometimes they do, there are warning signs for them to stop (in case they are clueless what a striped crosswalk is) but yesterday some driver had to break hard to stop in front of me as I was crossing.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:39 pm
Dude, you live in Michigan. Learn how to pronounce Orion!
October 24th, 2019 at 2:49 pm
23 Is it non-stop? When I went to China in 1994, it was with Air China, on 747s with the rear part used for cargo, with a bulkhead about halfway back. Both flights were between SF and Shanghai. As I remember, the westbound flight was about 14 hours.
24 I never trust striped crosswalks, zebra crossing in Britain, too far. I like to see that oncoming drivers look like the are going to stop, or that I have time to get across if they don’t.
October 24th, 2019 at 2:54 pm
18 A pedestrian can easily be at fault even with an AV. If cars are parked along the street and one happens to be a van. Anyone stepping out without enough time to physically stop a car would be at fault. Or until AV vehicles start using x-rays to see through objects.
I did a search and even 19 months after the crash could only find this. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/10/18/545801.htm
October 24th, 2019 at 4:07 pm
Send Jim Hackett to the glue factory. (Where oh where is Allen Mulally!!
Ford needs a CEO that is a car person. I don’t think building file cabinets is the same as building cars, not even close.
October 24th, 2019 at 5:42 pm
Yeah, Ford is in a world of hurt and their future doesn’t look promising. They’re having a lot of problems with programing which causes an array of issues on new vehicles. The only hope they have is if the several new models coming out are problem free and sell like hot cakes.
Sure are a lot of new Ford and Lincoln cars around here. I think getting out of the car biz is a huge mistake. ICE’s will be around for 15-20 years (they estimate), so a ton of cars can be sold in that span! At least the Asians see the opportunity to take over the market.
It’s always good news when an automaker, like Tesla, makes a profit after so many prior losses. I, for one, have to commend them for the cost cutting measures they made last quarter and still increased out-put. On the other hand, Tesla cut costs mostly by lay-offs (not necessarily a bad thing) and increased profits through emissions credits.
I think it is very possible for Tesla to achieve their annual goal. If their China plant produces the model 3 in predicted numbers and at a higher profit, the U.S. plant could then take advantage of making more niche vehicles of greater returns. These profits, plus the added revenues from the model Y, just might gain Tesla long tern profitability.
The only thing that stands in their way are the end of tax credits, the possible need to hire back those laid off, a down turn in the market and the usual problems of getting product out the door. Maybe they can do it!
October 24th, 2019 at 6:07 pm
Off topic: I sure had a fantastic day. I finished a few chore early and had thoughts of fishing. Perch are finally biting, but all that is involved to get to the hot spot lessened my ambition, plus I had to clean what was caught.
So, instead, I first hit the driving range to work out a few kinks with a recent developed slice. Then, I played 9 holes with a couple friends; one very good and the other a hack, like me. I think it is a custom for golfers to have a few cold ones along the way.
I share this because I am not sure what made my day so nice; Having fun and being with friends or getting away from the comments from the “wizard of odd.”
I think I’m good for at least another few days to stomach the “wiz!”
October 25th, 2019 at 3:34 am
#7 – The Corvette C8 is killing the Karma. The Karma looks more like a classic Corvette than the future.
October 25th, 2019 at 7:33 am
The fools that shorted Tesla in the past, you know, the fools that believe it is… a Ponzi scheme and that it will go broke like… GM and Chrysler, had already lost more than $3 billion before their latest folly.
I was wondering how much they lost this time, and the good folks at CNBC have the answers: $1,400,000,000 and counting. JUST the last couple days.
Keep up the good work, Tesla shorters!
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/shorts-betting-against-tesla-lose-more-than-1point4-billion-in-single-day.html
October 25th, 2019 at 7:39 am
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/tesla-investor-says-stock-surge-is-just-the-beginning-of-a-rebound-to-4000.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Just to balance the fools who actually believe Tesla is a Ponzi scheme, here is a serious investor who expects it to top 4,000!!!
October 25th, 2019 at 7:47 am
26 Yes, we have had non-stop flights with Delta from DTW to Shanghai since around 2006, I believe, or even earlier. There is a 12 hour time diff so this one is only 12 hours 38 mins. Probably favorable winds? Still can be tiresome to sit on one’s butt for 13 hours, and not healthy according to the latest health newsletters.
When I was invited to Hong Kong and Macau in 2013, I had to fly to Chigago first, and then I think it was 15 hours.
October 25th, 2019 at 7:48 am
31 The Karma looks like a .. Corvette? It has four doors, to begin with, and the C always had 2. No, the Karma looks more (up front) like the Jag XK coupes-cabrios from the 90s. And its grille sucks, that big chrome bar on top looks utterly misplaced.
October 25th, 2019 at 7:49 am
27 Regardless of the legalities, public opinion will never tolerate it and demand that AVs are able to prevent any kind of accident.
October 25th, 2019 at 7:51 am
Hackett killed all their cars, in a flash of insanity, and promised they will concentrate on more profitable SUVs, and will do those SUVs really right and well.
The latest Explorer debacle in the CHigago plant takes away even this above last fig leaf.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:17 am
Good morning, Wiz.
Just like I anticipated, you are very predictable and on time.
Don’t recall saying “I” believed the Ponzi scheme reported or that Tesla was going broke! I just reported on what the market says, which is very different than the company.
You should really take up golf; It’s a good way to clear the mind.
And take some friends with you………..I’m sorry, that would be asking too much!
October 25th, 2019 at 8:49 am
30 Glad you had a good day! I can appreciate your sentiments. The comments section used to be enjoyable to read and share thoughts and opinions from others, even ones that may be at odds. As most were respectful enough to appreciate an alternate view. Anymore its the Wiz show with 50% of the posts bombarding us with why everyone’s comments are WRONG if they don’t align with the wiz.
29 Yeah! I believe Hackett was thinking he would diversify Ford and get into mobility services and prepare for a huge change in the market to EV and AV. Like you mentioned the ICE will still be around for the next 20 or 30 years and you cant just give up when those technologies haven’t even proven to provide a sustainable market. I’m speaking hypothetical but if EVs never materialize to be much more than they are right now they wont replace the ICE. If AV’s cannot prove to be reliable 100% in all climates and conditions which I don’t think they are anywhere close to achieving that, Another tech that will fall to the wayside or only ever account for a fraction of the market. Ford needs to be prepared for the future but right now they seem a bit lost. Partnering and joint ventures spending millions to jockey for position and neglecting their core business, building cars.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:09 am
39 Ford seems to have missed the fact that, even as car sales decline, they still make up 30% of the US market, about 5 million units a year. Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, and others will be glad to take of the slack.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:48 am
40 It does seem to be a repeat of the 70s where the domestics only want to build the large cars. Back then it was cause they didn’t know how to build a decent small car and now they only want the large SUVs with the big profit margins. History repeating itself like you said Kit the Asian car builders will gladly fill the gap of suppling cars. And if gas goes to $5 a gallon the domestics will be caught with their pants down again. Their market share will dwindle to the single digits. Not really sure how they don’t see this as a possibility.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:58 am
VW seems interested in small cars for the years ahead with the new Golf. It will have several available ICE and diesels.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:02 am
https://www.autonews.com/video/first-shift-another-large-local-supports-gm-deal-vote-nears-end?utm_source=antv-first-shift&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20191025&utm_content=hero-image
Cash for clunkers to buy a US-made BEV: $3,000-$5,000. I may consider this when my 2007 E class resale value goes below $5k.. which could be a long way from now, and get a Model S. But I’d prefer this to be offered also for used BEVs
October 25th, 2019 at 10:16 am
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-starts-selling-china-made-model-3-autopilot-function?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20191025&utm_content=article5-image
This is the big one. $50k w autopilot in CHina, less than half the price of the other Teslas there. They will sell every one they make and three times that.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:17 am
“At an event where VW was presenting the new Golf hatchback Thursday, CEO Herbert Diess quibbled with reporters who suggested Tesla is in trouble because it’s too small.
“Tesla is not niche,” Diess said in Wolfsburg, Germany, where VW is based. “The Model 3 is a large-series model and they are one of the biggest manufacturers of electric-car batteries.”
October 25th, 2019 at 10:29 am
“The rally vaulted the company back above General Motors as the top U.S. automaker by market capitalization.”
Quiz: which is this company? Which could it beeeee…
“We are bigger than US Steel” –Al Capone