AD #2760 – BorgWarner Buys Delphi Technologies; EV Battery Cost Reduction Will Stall; Ford 3D Prints Wheel Locks

January 28th, 2020 at 11:52am

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Listen to “AD #2760 – BorgWarner Buys Delphi Technologies; EV Battery Cost Reduction Will Stall; Ford 3D Prints Wheel Locks” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 9:17

0:07 BorgWarner Acquires Delphi Technologies
0:56 EV Battery Cost Reduction Will Stall Out
2:25 Renault Ready to Hire New CEO
3:25 Hella Lights BMW X6 Grille
4:00 Audi to Test V2I in Germany
4:50 Ford Agrees to Settle DCT Lawsuit
6:03 Ford 3D Prints Wheel Locks
7:32 Kia Teases 3rd Vehicle for India
7:53 Opel’s First PHEV On Sale Now

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39 Comments to “AD #2760 – BorgWarner Buys Delphi Technologies; EV Battery Cost Reduction Will Stall; Ford 3D Prints Wheel Locks”

  1. Larry D. Says:

    A. OPEL: I’m sure GM shareholders are mighty glad they sold this loser, even after it lost them $20,000,000,000 (yes, 20 BILLLION) when GM owned it (and this is probably only for a few years, and would be much higher in 2020 money, as few people are econ literate to add apples to apples…)

    B. I clicked on the link of that “MIT Study” and I even recognized an old prof. and later colleague of mine (Moshe Ben-Akiva), with whom I later (1999-2000) participated, two years in a row, in some summer junket in a new University’s grad program, talks, panels, and great entertainment. Besides the couple profs, the staff includes about two dozen slaves (oops, grad students) who probably did 99% of the work, including the writeup, which explains the gloom and doom pessimism.

    I could go on for pages and pages here. FIRST of all, in today’s worthless dollars, $7,500 is loose change. MANY ICE cars have ENGINES that cost, just the engine, TWICE that. AND as you know, Sean, the average transaction price is close to $40k, so a Model 3 is not really a luxury car, it is a car for the MASSES and its sales prove it. (Anyway all Teslas are more of performance- high tech cars, not luxury cars, If you want Luxury go get a Lexus LS or an S class or A8 or equivalent).

    ALSO, you fail to look back and admit that battery cost has ALREADY plummeted real fast from 2011 to 2018, I have oft quoted the Bloomberg study, the cost of a 1 KWH went down by a factor of 7 (in 2018, it cost only 1/7th what it cost in 2011!). So batteries are ALREADY very affordable, and BEVS, with the Model 3 and soon with cheaper models from VW and maybe Tesla in CHina as well, are ALREADY very affordable.

  2. Dave Says:

    yes the price of CD’s were to stall out in terms of price, and there would never be computers fast enough to do, whatever? there are lots of other battery technologies besides Lithium, who knows? those bright, out of the box thinking, engineers and scientists are out there, especially at Tesla and SpaceX, who knows?

  3. Larry D. Says:

    2 Exactly, good points, and after all future cars may not require batteries at all!

    Remember in the 19th century the same fools who worried that we are running out of oil in the 20th century, were worried that they were running out of… coal. (they probably time traveled there to preach their nonsense)

  4. cwolf Says:

    Is it that difficult to summarize what was said about battery costs? The main point was cost cannot go below the cost of materials! Nothing was said if this included labor and any cost for battery recycling. So cost could be higher than predicted.

  5. Lambo2015 Says:

    EV batteries will see a stall or maybe even an increase due to the materials used. That could all change with a new battery design.
    The person that develops the next new battery could be a modern day Edison. A smaller lighter cheaper battery would change everything not just EVs.

    Hella Grill? $500 option? They do know you can run to any Autozone and get a pack of LEDs to do the same thing for like $25.

    Sean I have to agree with you on the wheel locks. Having worked for a Repossession firm in Detroit (years ago) I soon learned that devices like that would only stop the thief that isn’t prepared. So any wheel lock would probably provide the same protection. I was in the middle of taking a vehicle from an apartment complex at 1:00 am and set off the car alarm. Someone came out only to tell me to shut the blasted noise off. Didn’t care if it was being stolen.
    If they really want your wheels they’ll just steal the whole car and take it to where they can take the time to remove the wheel locks. As you said, if they really want it they’ll find a way.

  6. cwolf Says:

    5)Lambo, you may be right. Yet, there is a limit on how many ions can collect and be discharged no matter what the material. I’m sure a smaller, lighter battery will exist but then they too will have a mileage limit. It’s only guessing but a combination of smaller/ lighter batteries may last 400-450 miles. That might be enough to serve the purpose.
    Again, I’m no genius in this area and is only my opinion.

  7. ArtG Says:

    6. Exactly. Who cares?

  8. ArtG Says:

    Is there a moderator here? I’m a moderator on several automotive forums. The above personal attacks would not be tolerated. A two-week suspension would be in order and a permanent ban if it continued.

  9. cwolf Says:

    A practice of “ civility” could be your first major accomplishment and a good goal to strive for.

  10. Lambo2015 Says:

    Thumbs up to 6, 8 10, & 11

  11. ChuckGrenci Says:

    There are several coned lug-nut removers that could totally circumvent wheel lock lugs as they currently exist. These wheel locks, as described in today’s segment only keep the honest people honest; the pro’s will hardly be slowed.

    I think the future of BEV dominance will continue to be battery driven; finite resources will drive the cost and until alternate battery technologies are developed, total dominance will wain. I posted a link last week (I think) that was tied to IBM working on a sea-water battery that might show promise. https://screenrant.com/ibm-seawater-battery-tech/

  12. Sean McElroy Says:

    disagreeing with someone’s opinion is fine, but making personal attacks in our comments section will not be tolerated. You may notice some of the comments have been deleted.

  13. Kit Gerhart Says:

    I’ve only had “lock” lug nuts once, but they were exposed enough that a big pair of vice grips, squeezed really tight, might have loosened them.

    The idea that reductions in battery cost could stall out makes sense to me. Many battery materials come from unstable countries around the world, and China has specifically “latched on” to some of the supplies. There are probably other sources to be found, but most new sources are likely to be expensive to process, low yield ores, or they would already be mined.

    For low cost, short range commuter cars, why not lead-acid batteries? Yeah, they have very low energy density compared to LiPo, but they are cheap, and with 100 years of practice, recycling is very mature. Yeah, even a 20 kWh lead-acid battery would weigh about 800 pounds, but if 80 miles of range is all you need, why not consider using cheap, recyclable batteries that don’t need materials from perennial war zones.

  14. JB Says:

    Carbon fiber ford wheels probably prompted these new wheel locks…and at 10 grand a set I understand why…

    Love carbon fiber wheels just not the costs..

    Lowering unsprung weight is one of the best mods…

    Somone needs to figure how to do so less expensively

  15. Bishop Says:

    Don’t mean to change the conversation subject (Larry & BEVs), but Kit, in response to your question yesterday (#26), I think that initially is what most wonder (is it worth the investment?). However, in following along with the development of this convergence of the two sanctioning bodies, I have read many times that this pretty much is what OEMs have wanted for some time to justify the investment.

    First of all, the new chassis will be built by the four current LMP2 constructors: Dallara, Ligier, ORECA and Multimatic and will feature a spec KERS-based hybrid system on the rear axle with the design and styling to be developed according to the engine manufacturer. In short, that is what the “H” stands for = hybrid. There is speculation that down the road, it may mean hydrogen. It is thought that the hybrid system will add 40 to 50 hp.

    Lambo2015 is right that racing (esp road racing) accomplishes an important goal – R&D, the development of more reliability for power train, suspension, etc. There is nothing that matches endurance racing to expose what an OEM needs to improve in its car and that can be applied to its production cars. However, it also (now) will provide a basis for development experience with new power train developments (in this case hybrid technology ICE + hybrid) – to keep up with other manufacturers, so to speak, at a reasonable cost. And because the LMDh class cars allows for modification of silhouette and car design, it allows for development according to the brand or style of the manufacturer which will provide the engine power for the car. In short, identifiable as to brand, ie., marketing benefits.

    https://www.fiawec.com/en/news/aco-and-imsa-forge-future-of-endurance-racing/6618

    From what I’ve read, instead of only one OEM currently interested in competing in the top class (Toyota) in the ACO/FIA – the following have expressed interest in the new specifications of the converged class : Acura, Aston, Audi, Bentley, BMW, Cadillac, Citroen, Ferrari, Ford, Hyundai, Infiniti, Lambo, Lexus, Mazda, McLaren, Mercedes, Nissan, Peugeot, Porsche, Subaru, Toyota, Volvo, and VW. I’d say that that is a pretty good increase in possible participation and if only one quarter or one third of them actually get involved, it sure would make road racing a whole lot more interesting.

    The cost for the new class is supposed to be in the neighborhood of the current generation of DPi, not including development cost of the hybrid. But then, most of these manuf are investing in hybridization anyway. And now they can compete for the overall win, not just in-class wins – like GTLM etc.

    There is plenty of interest in this form of racing, even though it has suffered from the division of sanctioning bodies for a couple of decades now. This year’s Sebring 12 Hours has already sold out of reserved RV spaces (the earliest time ever) and last year, they were sold out for entry before the race even started. And that is with just one manuf in the top class (in the WEC) – and the WEC and IMSA races were separate. Make them combined into one 12 Hour race, it’s a whole different ball game IMO.

    My guess is that the Rolex24 will have a large crowd in 2022.

  16. Drew Says:

    MIT’s battery cost analysis is good in terms of applying a reality check for future cost expectations… for a given technology/chemistry composition. An aspect that most cost analyses omit is the law of supply & demand for those raw materials (witness the escalating costs of precious metals in catalytic converters). When demand increases at a faster rate than supply of battery raw materials, battery costs will increase.

    @8 & 12 – I didn’t see the earlier personal attacks, but appreciate your efforts to restore/maintain civility.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    14 Carbon fiber composite is probably the way to make the very lightest wheels, but most wheels seem to be more for style, than for lightness. My Camry LE hybrid has 16 inch steel wheels, while the same year LE 4 non-hybrid has alloy wheels. The steel wheels would be cheaper, but since they used them on the hybrid, I suspect the steels are lighter. Since you pay extra for the hybrid, it wouldn’t be very noticeable if they added a the cost difference of alloy wheels to the price of the hybrid, if they were lighter.

  18. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 Thanks for the info.

  19. Kit Gerhart Says:

    17 It looks like Toyota may use steel wheels on the LE hybrid only for cost. From what I can find, they are a little heavier than any, or at least most 16″ alloys.

    14 It looks like the price of the carbon fiber wheels is coming down. This January 2016 article shows them as $15K/set.

    https://www.hotrod.com/articles/the-4000-mistake-you-dont-want-to-make-with-your-new-ford-mustang-gt350r/

    Still, I don’t think I’d want them on a daily driver.

  20. Bob Wilson Says:

    I want Tesla, cyber wheels.

  21. Malondro Says:

    Nikola Tesla was working on wireless energy transmission (WET) when he built the Wardenclyffe Tower in 1901-2. The tower was never completed as JP Morgan withdrew financial support as he saw no way to make money with the technology. It is my opinion that Tesla’s vision will be validated and implemented in the future. Not until that time will the electric car will be widely accepted.

  22. cwolf Says:

    Speaking of steel wheels; it seems like most above average cars have aluminum rims, but it has been my experience that tires do not hold air as well. I never have noticed this on all the cars having steer rims.
    Is this just my imagination?

  23. Kit Gerhart Says:

    22 I don’t think it’s your imagination. From my experience too, steel wheels hold air better than aluminum wheels. Apparently, in lost air, the porosity of the aluminum wheels more than makes up for the scratched paint of the bead area of steel wheels.

  24. cwolf Says:

    Glad you agree. I’m not nuts after all!

  25. Carlson Says:

    NEED TO CHECK THE PERMEABILITY of steel verses aluminium

  26. Larry D. Says:

    Yesterday I downloaded that “MIT Study” (which, remarkably, did not contain a single equation, and its math was mostly high school statistics level; in short, what MIT alumni in my area call a “dumbed down” study, this is where I heard the word first)

    Worse, the study does various simulations (not any analytical math modeling or experiments) and the ‘results’ give forecasts to 2050, 30 years from now. In 2050, half the audience here will not even be around, and those who are, will find out that their forecasts were way off the mark, as practically ALL forecasts do.

    “People who gaze in crystal balls eat broken glass”, as Stopford put it.

    BUT there were still interesting issues in that lengthy and very verbose report.

    Most important is the HUGE Loss of Government Tax revenue in CHina but especially in Europe, as BEVs sell more and more millions of new cars every year, reaching 5 mill a year in 2050. (IMHO CHina alone will sell more than 5 mill a year then). Even with their low-ball assumptions, the loss of revenue annually ($3.50 a gallon gas tax in Europe) will be in the 200s and 400s of BILLIONS.

    Enough for now.

  27. Larry D. Says:

    Meanwhile, in Europe (Dec 2019):

    “As usual, the Volkswagen Golf and Renault Clio were the best-selling models in Europe in December.

    But there was a big surprise at No. 3: The Tesla Model 3, which has quickly become the ****best-selling electric car in Europe in its first year on the market****.

    Tesla sold 22,041 Model 3s in Europe in in December, according to JATO Dynamics market researchers. Just 7,912 Model 3s were sold in November.

    The model went on sale in Europe in 2019, with vehicles exported from the U.S.

    Tesla has announced plans to build a factory to serve Europe near Berlin.

    Electric vehicles took an 11 percent market share in the month, the highest ever in Europe, JATO said in a report on Tuesday.”

  28. Larry D. Says:

    26 Despite all this, and a ton of other reasons, the dumbed-down “MIT Study” chose as its BEV the… Chevy Bolt! (reportedly losing GM $9,000 for every one of these losers it makes, and most of them go to CRUISE anyway, not to retail customers)

  29. Kit Gerhart Says:

    25 It is highly unlikely that tax revenue will just “go away” as gas and diesel cars are replaced with BEVs. The gas tax will be replaced with tax on electricity, and/or per-mile/km tax using on-board GPS gadgets or hard-to-hack odometers of some sort.

  30. Kit Gerhart Says:

    27 They probably used the Bolt because it’s a car you can just “go buy,” even in Michigan or Texas, or “next door” to them in Connecticut.

  31. Larry D. Says:

    29 For the US, due to the very low gas tax, they estimate very low Tax revenue losses, tops $29 bill in 2050, when in 2050 also, starving India will lose twice as much. The problem is for Europe, which is already taxed to the brink AND whose economy is anemic. The Q is where can they find others to tax? Or will they be forced to tax the very BEVs they are trying to encourage to replace all their diesels?

    30 They and all the others who use the Bolt and not the successful, best-selling, and affordable Model 3, which made BEVs mass-market, is that they are sticking their collective heads in the sand. The study would be far more credible if they chose a far more representative vehicle and not this “compliance turkey” Lutz wanted the SUV and Pickup Buyers to subsidize.

  32. Lambo2015 Says:

    As most everyone has heard about the Helicopter crash in L.A. on Sunday that took 9 lives including Kobe Bryant. It does make me wonder how that may have affected all these VTOL start-ups and if maybe some of the Autonomous technology that is being developed for this industry might have helped the pilot.

  33. Kit Gerhart Says:

    31 Some US states are already enacting punitive per-year EV taxes, that are much higher than the gas tax for an average vehicle driven an average number of miles.

    As far as tax policies in Europe, or anywhere else 30 years from now, no one knows, or has any real idea.

    30,31 The Bolt and Model 3 have similar payload, and for the most commonly sold Model 3, range, so how would the study have even been much different between the Bolt and Model 3? Yeah, the Model 3 Standard Range Plus is somewhat more efficient, but not enough to make much difference.

  34. Kit Gerhart Says:

    32 From what I’ve heard about that crash, technology might have helped. It sounded like he was flying visually, in bad visibility conditions, and might have just flown into the ground, though I’m sure a lot more will be known in a few weeks.

  35. Larry D. Says:

    33

    A. The word “punitive” is really a bad choice. Everybody should pay for what they use is the fair policy, and BEVs should be no exception. There is nothing punitive about asking the BEV owner who uses the highways and does 10,000 or more miles a year to pay even a small percentage of the wear and tear he or she causes.

    B. Is there even One state in 50 that actually taxes EVs more than gas cars? Which one is it?

    C. Just because the future is hard to guess, should we push the huge funding problem the EU will face under the rug? CHina will also have an even bigger loss of tax revenue, but they have trillions in surpluses and a still fast growing, huge economy. Europe does not, it has an aging population, and the biggest nations have “Big Government” policies that tax very heavily their economies very heavily. It is a HUGE problem for Europe, which has recently adopted a pro-BEV and anti-diesel policies, (we do know that) and whose BEV sales are growing fast, where will it find those 200 billions a year, if not from the BEVs themselves, a self-defeating policy.

  36. ChuckGrenci Says:

    25, Carlson
    Though there have been reported porosity problems with aluminum wheels, this is a rare occurrence and can usually be remedied with an internal sealant. With millions and million of alloy wheels produced and installed, if there were widespread problems, aluminum wheels wouldn’t be as prolific. Either style wheel, steel or aluminum should be equally non-permeable.

  37. JWH Says:

    25, 36, others – Aluminum wheel/tire air loss vs steel. I could be wrong, however, I’ve always felt based on my experience that the issue with aluminum wheels is the wheel to tire interface. Removing the tire & cleaning the bead area on the wheel generally corrects air leakage for a year or so, then it returns. A friend of mine with 2008 MKZ got so upset with air leakage on his wheels, he purchased 4 new aluminum wheels when he needed tires to eliminate the air leakage.

  38. Lambo2015 Says:

    Alloy wheels are lighter than steel. Better performing and the only real advantage to steel is they can take an impact better and wont crack but will bend. However most newer vehicles are coming with larger and larger wheel sizes and steel wheels are pretty hard to find over 16″. I’ve only ever had one problem with an alloy wheel not holding air and it was a typical problem. As the wheels get older and after the protectant paint is worn they will oxidize. The leak is almost always the bead surface. (but sometimes can leak around the valve stem). A quick clean-up of the surface and in my case I shot it with some clear lacquer paint. Problem solved.

  39. Kit Gerhart Says:

    35 Texas, for one, taxes EVs more. Other states have bills in the works to do that.