AD #2765 – Tesla’s Stock Sent Soaring; U.S. January Sales Better Than Expected; GM Starting Origin AV Production in 2022

February 4th, 2020 at 11:56am

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Listen to “AD #2765 – Tesla's Stock Sent Soaring; U.S. January Sales Better Than Expected; GM Starting Origin AV Production in 2022″ on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 8:23

* At time we recorded this show Tesla’s stock was at $780 a share, but it is now up to $900 a share. *

0:07 1st Gigafactory Profit Sends Tesla’s Stock Soaring
1:07 Tesla’s Market Cap Hits $140 Billion
1:43 U.S. January Sales Better Than Expected
2:27 U.S. Incentives Down, ATPs Up
3:32 Hyundai to Halt Most Production in South Korea
3:57 Toyota Develops Marine Fuel Cell System
4:52 Kia Teases All-New Sorento
5:40 GM to Start Origin AV Production in 2022
6:24 Renault Reveals Refreshed Megane
7:18 Mid-Engine ‘Vette Starts Down Production Line

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44 Comments to “AD #2765 – Tesla’s Stock Sent Soaring; U.S. January Sales Better Than Expected; GM Starting Origin AV Production in 2022”

  1. Bob Wilson Says:

    With TSLA over $900/share, can we get some more Tesla criticisms: too expensive; poor reliability; terrible performance; too quiet; too loud; killer autopilot, and; uncompetitive? If we don’t get enough bad news, a SHORT is a terrible mind to waste.

  2. Larry D. Says:

    Sales were OK in Jan, but most makers (more than 50% of the market) are not reporting monthly sales any more. My email this morning showed only Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Subaru, Mazda and Mitsu reported sales by the end of the day yesterday, Honda was down 5k units and the others up by similar or smaller amounts.

    The UAW should strike again! Don’t let these big bad corporations get away. Its really good for them too, as shown by the very healthy low inventories, which led to also very healthy lower incentives, AND despite all that, the transaction prices, already very high, rose another 2%! Perfect.

  3. ChuckGrenci Says:

    So Tesla’s riding the wave now. Arrogance can be humbling if it all falls apart, the bigger they are the harder they fall (i.e. GM, Ford), then there is the bell curve which just about every product/industry eventually follows. Yep, Tesla’s going full blast and is for the foreseeable future, and yes, even the chickens have hatched (as in don’t count them before…….) But there should be a caution (as well); one of man’s biggest shortfalls is success; we’re still at the beginning of this story, many chapters to complete and don’t quite know the ending. Embrace the success, but don’t become a lemming either (you know what happens to them when critical mass is achieved). I’m just trying to be pragmatic, not pessimistic; and certainly a curious observer.

  4. Larry D. Says:

    3 Would you have said the same cautionary words about Henry Ford and Thomas Edison? And if not, why not?

    The crazy price surge is PARTIALLY due to short covering, the fools who bet against Tesla lost $12.5 Billions the last few days alone. BUT the rest of it is based on FACTS, the HUNDREDS of positive surprises that I hear the last year or so, almost one every day, and beyond my wildest expectations. AND this includes the shows here at AAH with Munro and HIS dissection of the Model 3 etc AND his conclusions and all that.

  5. Wim van Acker Says:

    @TESLA: with TESLA’s market cap several times Ford’s and GM’s (after having been for several years at the same order of magnitude), redefining which are the most important U.S. automakers is long over-due IMHO. Instead of the “Detroit 3″, using the “Big 3″ would be fine as long as those are 1 TESLA, 2 General Motors and 3 Ford Motor Company.

    Chrysler/Jeep,RAM/Dodge have only belonged to an American company since 1998 between 2009 and 2014.

  6. Brett Cammack Says:

    A Tesla Model 2 with a transaction price around that of a well-equipped Elantra or Corolla would really disrupt the ICE marketplace. (Think 2-door hatch with around 200 miles of range.)

  7. Lambo2015 Says:

    The Tesla stock price makes me wonder if it would make sense for GM and Ford to have created a separate company (not division) for their EVs. This would allow them to shed some of the historical weight that they carry and stigma that it would be operated like just another Ford or GM division.

  8. Larry D. Says:

    7 Yes, I suggested this several times before, and they do it to some extent with the Rivian. It is a necessary condition, but it is not a sufficient condition, I mean Rivian is looking OK, has lots of orders and funding, but it needs to do a whole lot more for its stock (if there is one in the market) to explode like Tesla’s has.

  9. Lambo2015 Says:

    Growing up I could get a remote controlled car, plane, etc for less than a gas powered one. Waiting for that to be the case with the full size versions.

  10. victor west Says:

    How many Tesla buyers are waiting for the new SUV instead of purchasing the Model 3? It is only a month away.

  11. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Tesla is the Radio Shack of electric car companies. The TRS-80 dominated the home computer market in the late ’70s-early ’80s, but where are they now? Other companies caught up, and overtook them, like VW, and then other car companies will catch up with Tesla in EVs.

    Yeah, the Model 3 performs great, is fairly priced, and the Tesla charger network is great, for those who want to do long trips in an EV. On the other hand, the Model 3 has mediocre build quality, crappy controls, and no place to get service done for many people. Maybe the stock will go to $7K by 2024. If it does, that would be a good time to sell it, as the legacy car companies will soon have serious, mass market EVs hitting the market.

  12. Kit Gerhart Says:

    10 Yep, I suspect that is no doubt going on. I’d probably buy the Model Y over the Model 3, because it is, basically, a hatchback Model 3, rather than an SUV. Also, the extent to which it is “lifted” hurts a lot less than with regular SUVs, because the weight of the batteries keeps the center of gravity low.

  13. Brett Cammack Says:

    10
    Yes, we call that the “Osborne Effect” in the computer biz. (Google Adam Osborne)

  14. ChuckGrenci Says:

    4, Well I’m not that old (though I did have an uncle that worked for Edison) and I think that same caution could have been issued for both of them. The Bell curve; Ford has fallen or at least tripped and Edison has also been dethroned (ironically by Tesla via Westinghouse; AC/DC). TAE is my favorite inventor and respect his struggle, success and decline. I just think history will repeat.

  15. Brett Cammack Says:

    11
    I dunno, Kit. Think about Alco, Baldwin, Lima, Hamilton, and Heisler. Some companies are going to suck at adapting. Ford, GM, and FCA haven’t impressed me just yet.

  16. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 Yeah, true. I’d bet on VW adapting fairly well, but I’m wondering about Toyota. What they make now, with their hybrids, works great for me, but they don’t seem to be planning much for the future, except for fuel cells, which make little sense for anything except space ships.

    14 Edison was a brilliant inventor, but he didn’t understand that these things called transformers would be nice to use for long distance power distribution.

  17. ARHPG Says:

    4. Yes, we know, you are “Tesla Fan Boy #1, which is fine! Tesla can do no wrong while the rest of the global automobile industry is going to hell in a hand basket; Musk, however, might want to keep an eye on Achates Power engine development. This super-efficient engine might be a game-changer while manufacturers contemplate switching over to all-electric power.

    The difference between Tesla and Henry Ford/Thomas Edison is that neither (Ford nor GE) lost money for seventeen-straight years. Without the inflated stock price, Tesla’s true value is tenuous; nevertheless, we can only hope that Tesla will become profitable in the years ahead to stay out of the “abyss,” which the company has narrowly escaped once or twice. As No. 3 said, “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.” Let’s hope this doesn’t happen to Tesla!

  18. Larry D. Says:

    11 This is pure speculation, and the facts so far point in the opposite direction. VW and Tesla have been compared on seven vital attributes and Tesla won 7 to 0. Anybody can HOPE that sometime VW comes up with a “better Tesla” but there is zero evidence so far that it will. The VW Group offerings so far are either utterly insignificant, such as the way overpriced, tiny niche Porsche Taycan, or far inferior to competing Tesla models (Audi Etron and VW GOlf and Up! E)

  19. Larry D. Says:

    17 Don’t flatter yourself, and don’t call me names. ALSO, you know absolutely NOTHING and it shows. COnsider yourself flattered that I even reference your irrational Tesla hating drivel.

    You and others here do not understand that the world is NOT just the 5% which is the USA. Maybe the LOSERS in =Detroit cannot compete overseas, and therefore think the world is just the USA, BUT in the clearly defined Tesla plans and plants around the world, the US market is a DISTANT THIRD behind that of CHINA and then EUROPE. AND Tesla is already there BIG WAY.

    So stick your head deeper in the sand, ARHPG. I have no time to enlighten you to all the thing you should have picked up even on this show alone. Obviously you show that you have no clue.

  20. Larry D. Says:

    17 PS did you put your $ where your ignorant mouth was, and lost it all? (ie, did you short Tesla, and were among those losers who lost the $12.5 BILL in a few days alone, OR did you just idly badmouth it?)

  21. Christopher Gerhart Says:

    18 I certainly agree that VW’s current EV offerings are insignificant, but that doesn’t mean they will be in 5 years.

  22. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4oCBDQNlpU

    I posted this a few days ago but apparently nobody saw it, or at least nobody learned anything from it.

    Here it is, a FACT based comparison of VW and Tesla, with 7 clearly defined Metrics.

    Enjoy, and hopefully learn something.

  23. Larry D. Says:

    The video in 22 was made very recently, Jan 28, 2020, so it is as up to date as it can be.

    For those who don’t know how to click on the link and/or don’t have the time to see it, Tesla wins 7-0, but the presenter believes VW will be the no 2 BEV maker.

  24. Kit Gerhart Says:

    22 I saw it. It’s about now, not in a few years.

    VW will almost certainly soon be the #2 BEV maker, unless one of the several Chinese ones becomes big, or if a bunch of them merge. VW will, presumably, be also making EVs in China, where they are now making Santana successors.

  25. JWH Says:

    Comments regarding companies rise & fall – When I started at Chevrolet back in 1966, GM was more concerned the federal government taking them to task since GM share of the market was about 50%. Chevrolet was approximately the same size at Ford Motor Company (Ford, Mercury, Lincoln). Yes the mighty can fall hard.

    ARHPG – Don’t call the Tesla praiser names since we all know he never calls anyone names or screams at all us with ALLCAPS.

  26. Larry D. Says:

    24 Not true. It is about both the present AND the future, as far as we know it.

    As I said, you can only hope, based on no facts, that the tables will turn in 10 years and VW or anybody else will “build a better Tesla”

    Tesla is not a one-trick dog. They have a very deep product bench, both present, near future, and later.

    Roadster 1.0 was proof of concept

    S and X were trial runs to learn so the critical mass-market Model 3 and Y and later ones are made efficiently and avoid any earlier errors.

    Cybertruck will do well too, and Musk is even thinking of an E- minivan later, which is a no-brainer, the way minivans are driven.

    The supercharger network has been growing by leaps and bounds

    When more battery cells become available, and they soon will, 100s of 18-wheeler Teslas will roll of the line

    And I have zero doubt that they will make a smaller Model 2, price it around $20-25k, and it will be a hit three times as big as the Model 32 AND the Model Y combined, not so much in the US but in China AND Europe, where those sizes are a necessity.

    So Radio Shack may be a terrible comparison. Maybe try Microsoft or Amazon instead. Or especially Apple, which is worth a trillion bucks selling PCs barely better than regular ones, at two and three times the price, and phones for $1000 that cost it $100. What a racket!

  27. Larry D. Says:

    BTW there are things I disagree with Musk big time. Especially his nonsense plans to permanentl colonize Mars. I don’t even think we should even send a manned mission just for a few days there. We can do fine with robots that cost 1% of the tens of billions manned missions will cost. And why the hell would anybody want to live in that hell?

  28. Lambo2015 Says:

    Who cares who is number one or number two in making EVs? The biggest doesn’t always mean the best. Look at McDonalds hamburgers. All that really says is they have burger made widely available at a low price. Does that equate to best? Not at all. At the end of the day EVs are still only 2.5% of global sales. Only 74% of that was BEVs the other 26% was PHEVs. So its very early to say anyone is going to rule this market. When EVs are 30% of total vehicle sales then whos leading will be important. Still wont necessarily mean the best but it will determine who is likely to dominate the market. I just think its too early to rule anyone out.

  29. Bob Wilson Says:

    The Tesla stock run-up sends a clear and unambiguous message to the board members of every traditional manufacturing company . . . reform!

    They may not be technical, just glorified accountants, but comparing their stock performance to Tesla over the past six months, they’ve been as uninspiring as Tesla has been the game changer.

    As for their stockholders retail and institutional, TSLA has to be a lot more attractive (but I don’t recommend buying today!) It is past time to clean out the fossils on the board of directors and corporate officers. SHORTs and vulture capitalists should sniff out the new bait, traditional automakers.

    The EU ‘Tesla killers’ in real life have been PowerPoint paper tigers both too expensive and poor performance. So let’s keep it real and cite EVs and other technologies that have sold at least 10-100 units, a reality test, to see if they have something beyond eye-candy, prototypes. Otherwise, go to SEMA and let them give a smoke enema.

  30. Rector Says:

    Those numbers you gave concerning the value of Tesla is mind boggling! Crazy. I still think it’s more hype than actual value of the company.

  31. Albemarle Says:

    I have a suggestion. Let’s not discuss market value. Let’s focus on cars, their characteristics and the actions of car companies.

    It’s very naive to think that the market price of a stock is a genuine reflection of it’s value, and it’s boring. Save it for Cramer and let’s talk cars.

  32. Kit Gerhart Says:

    29 In efficiency and range, the EU BEVs have been far short of Model S. In performance, the iPace is quicker than the Model S long range, but some versions of the S would be much quicker. The build quality of both I-Pace and e-tron is almost universally considered better than any Tesla. Still, there is nothing about either I-Pace or e-tron that “grabs you,” though the e-tron is apparently very quiet and comfortable, as long as you don’t want to go to far. The EPA range is only 204 miles.

    Then, there’s the Porsche Taycan, proof that, based on early pre-orders, Porsche has a following of people who will pay very high prices for a car that, except for build quality, probably isn’t much better than a model S, and is much worse than a Model S in range and efficiency.

    As far as price, the I-Pace and e-tron are less expensive than the current “base” Model S or X, but the Teslas have more range, and the charger network, or course.

  33. Wim van Acker Says:

    @30: oh, Albemarle it is naive to think stock price is a genuine reflection of its value? Yes, let’s ignore educated investors who put their money where their mouth is and let’s listen to Albemarle. Because facts and figures are boring for him.

    So let’s talk cars now, as you suggest: tell us something interesting.

  34. Larry D. Says:

    33 Have you been to the NL lately? They have been the second biggest (relatively) BEV market in Europe after Norway. Did you notice the diff on the roads?

  35. Larry D. Says:

    https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/auto-industry-criticizes-uk-plan-bring-forward-ban-combustion-engine-cars?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20200205&utm_content=article5-headline

    Meanwhile, while Tesla is not allowed to sell its cars in so many (still) states, the UK wants to BAN sales of ICE cars in just 15 years from now?!

    They will even ban PLUG-IN HYBRIDS!

  36. Kit Gerhart Says:

    35 Whether that is actually enacted will depend a lot on “things” over the next 15 years. Not related to banning sale of ICE cars, but will there be any car manufacturing in the UK 5, or 15 years from now, other than maybe Rolls-Royce, which “has” to be in England? It would seem that post-Brexit UK and the EU have a lot to work out regarding the flow of cars and parts across the channel.

  37. Wim van Acker Says:

    @33: yes, I go over there 3-5 times per year, to visit relatives and take care of business. Electric vehicles and charging stations everywhere. All cabs at the Amsterdam Airport are TESLA Model S.Modern homes which are being designed and built have power generation and energy saving systems which include using the batteries of the electric vehicles parked in the garage, when appropriate.

  38. Wim van Acker Says:

    @33: yes, I go over there 3-5 times per year, to visit relatives and take care of business. Electric vehicles and charging stations everywhere. All cabs at the Amsterdam Airport are TESLA Model S.Modern homes which are being designed and built have power generation and energy saving systems which include using the batteries of the electric vehicles parked in the garage, when appropriate.

  39. Larry D. Says:

    38 Must look very different than the last time I passed through Amsterdam (my youngest first cousin, same first and last name as mine, wife and two kids live there permanently). Was it because of a regulation or a free choice to go with the S (and why not the more spacious X?)

  40. Kit Gerhart Says:

    The last time I passed through Amsterdam was 2008, and as I remember, most of the taxis at the airport were diesel Benzes. Things have changed since then.

  41. Larry D. Says:

    40, 38 I stayed in Amst. with my cousin and his family for a day in 2007, coming from a 2 day conf. in Brussels and continuing to a week in Warsaw, invited by the U there. I may have gone back once, but did not stay. The Model S came out in 2012, I think.

  42. Brett Cammack Says:

    I can only imagine that the Dutch have a deep and abiding appreciation for the impact that climate change will have upon their nation.

  43. Kit Gerhart Says:

    42 Very true. It’s unfortunate that they can do so little about it, when they have to share the planet with the US, China, and India.

  44. Brett Cammack Says:

    43
    My time-worn adage: “Everyone lives next door to the Clampetts.” :)

    True on a global scale as well. Hopefully not on an interstellar scale, but if it is, it’s probably Earth.