AD #3051 – New Toyota 86 & Subaru BRZ Unveiled; BEV Sales Up Strong in U.S.; Hummer EV SUV Revealed
April 5th, 2021 at 11:54am
Listen to “AD #3051 – New Toyota 86 and Subaru BRZ Unveiled; BEV Sales Up Strong in U.S.; Hummer EV SUV Revealed” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 10:46
0:08 BEV Sales Up Strong in U.S.
0:47 Tesla U.S. Market Share Down
1:26 Cadillac Testing Lyriq Prototypes
2:00 Battery Dispute Causes Supply Chain Concerns
3:32 New Toyota 86 & Subaru BRZ Unveiled
5:01 Mercedes Shares EQS Battery & Range Details
6:11 Hummer EV SUV Revealed
7:16 Krafcik Steps Down as CEO of Waymo
8:11 Designers Need to Be Under a Tighter Schedule
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
BEV SALES UP STRONG IN U.S.
Electric cars had an impressive first quarter in the U.S. market. Automakers sold over 77,000 BEVs, up 38% compared to a year ago. They now account for nearly 2% of all new car sales. Almost every EV posted substantial gains, including the Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf and BMW i3. The Porsche Taycan, Audi eTron, and Hyundai Ioniq and Kona all saw massive gains. And new entries such as the Mustang Mach-E, Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 Recharge added to the total.
| U.S. EV SALES, Q1 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sales | Change | % Change |
| 77,000 | +21,200 | +38% |
| Source: Wards Intelligence | ||
TESLA U.S. MARKET SHARE DOWN
As the traditional automakers posted EV gains in the first quarter, Tesla lost market share. Wards Intelligence reports that while sales of the Model Y are soaring, sales of the Model S, X and 3 are dropping. In fact, sales of the Model 3 fell 54% as it was cannibalized by the Model Y. A year ago, Tesla had 78% of the EV market in the U.S. Now, it’s at 61%. That’s still a dominant position. But as more entrants come into the market, Tesla will lose more market share. That’s just a fact. All market share has to add up to 100%. And as more entrants come into the market, everyone ends up with a thinner slice of the pie.
| TESLA U.S. SALES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sales | Market Share | |
| Q1, 2020 | 43,400 | 78% |
| Q2, 2021 | 47,480 | 61% |
| Source: Wards Intelligence | ||
CADILLAC TESTING LYRIQ PROTOTYPES
Speaking of electrics, Cadillac posted on Linkedin that it’s testing prototypes of the Lyriq, the electric SUV. The post was light on details, but we know the Lyriq will have 300 miles of range, 150 kw fast charging and a starting price below $60,000. It goes into production in the first quarter of 2022 at GM’s plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee. GM will build electric SUVs at that plant for Chevrolet and GMC and even one for Honda.
BATTERY DISPUTE CAUSES SUPPLY CHAIN CONCERNS
The dispute between LG Energy Solutions and SK Innovation has some analysts worried that it could harm the U.S.’s battery supply chain. LG accused SK of stealing trade secrets, and the U.S. International Trade Commission agreed, ruling that SK can make batteries at a plant in Georgia it’s currently constructing, for four years before it essentially has to shut down. Ford and VW plan to use those batteries in its EVs. But SK threatened to pull its operations out of the U.S. if President Biden doesn’t overturn the ITC’s ruling. He has until April 11th to make a decision. Here’s our Autoline insight. We don’t think it matters that much because someone else can come in and buy the plant. So there’s no need to worry about whether or not Biden’s decision will harm battery supplies.
NEW TOYOTA 86 & SUBARU BRZ UNVEILED
Sports car sales are hard to come by these days, but the Toyota 86 and Subaru BRZ twins are living on for another generation. The all-new versions, which are scheduled to launch before the year is out, feature fresh styling with the Subaru having a slightly happier face and the Toyota with front air curtains that flow over the edge of the bumper. In fact, we think those air curtains along with the integrated rear spoiler are styling cues picked up from the Supra. As for the interior, it’s still pretty basic, but features cockpit-like styling and a 7-inch display screen. The cars are practically identical in size to the outgoing models, but thanks to the use of aluminum and lightweighting efforts in the seat and exhaust, they’re lighter than before. They’re also more powerful too. A 2.4L engine replaces the old 2.0L unit and makes roughly 230 horsepower. It’s paired exclusively with rear-wheel drive and either a 6-speed manual or automatic. Acceleration from 0-100 km/h is down by over a full second to 6.3 seconds. These were already fun cars to toss around on the road, but with a 50% improvement on torsional rigidity, along with the other upgrades, we can’t wait to get in and drive them.
MERCEDES SHARES EQS BATTERY & RANGE DETAILS
Mercedes’ flagship electric vehicle, the EQS launches soon in August, so more details are trickling in. It rides on a RWD-based platform, but also has the option for AWD, which places an extra electric motor on the front axle. The more powerful setup combines for a total system output of 385 kW. Two battery sizes are available; 90 kWh or 107.8 kWh, which come with either pouch or hard case cells. The larger pack is said to return 770 kilometers of range on the WLTP test cycle, which is about 478 miles. If the smaller pack is equally as efficient, it should return somewhere in the range of 640 kilometers or about 400 miles. The electrical system is based on a 400-volt architecture, which allows the EQS to add up to 300 kilometers or 186 miles of range in 15 minutes.
HUMMER EV SUV REVEALED
Speaking of EVs, the SUV version of the Hummer EV debuted this weekend. We’ve only got a few things to talk about since it’s pretty much identical to the truck. But one of the biggest differences is the wheelbase. The SUV is nearly 9-inches shorter than the truck. That also greatly reduces its turning radius. Almost a full foot and a half less than the truck. And the SUVs pricing is about the same as the truck.
KRAFCIK STEPS DOWN AS CEO OF WAYMO
When it comes to the world of autonomous cars, it looks like Argo is taking a step forward, while Waymo is taking a step back. Argo is reportedly going to go public this year, either through an IPO or a SPAC. The company is already valued at $7 billion thanks to investments from Ford, Volkswagen and others. Meanwhile, Waymo’s CEO John Krafcik told employees in a company blog, that he decided to step down and let others run the company. Those others are Dmitri Dolgov and Tekedra Mawakana who will be co-CEOs of Waymo. With Krafcik, the company commercialized autonomous ride hailing in Phoenix, and raised over $3 billion from outside investors. Krafcik will continue as an advisor to Waymo.
DESIGNERS NEED TO BE UNDER A TIGHTER SCHEDULE
It takes about three years to develop a new car. One of the reasons it takes that long is that automakers actually schedule it to take that long. On Autoline After Hours, Karl Ludvigsen and Jim Hall talked about the benefits of putting designers under a tight schedule.
Karl Ludvigsen: “The Golf came a little latish, but it came just barely in time. And it was quite a successful car of course, in its way, and we still have Golfs. They managed to keep that franchise alive ever since Giugiaro’s first effort. He says in my book, I had three months to do the Gof, the Scirocco and one other car.”
Jim Hall: “It was the Passat, wasn’t it?
Karl Ludvigsen: “The Passat, exactly. And so they launched this whole group of cars. He said ‘I had three months to do it.’ And this just shows how valuable it can be to not have very much time to do something, because it’s not messed about. They’re clear, sharp cars.”
Jim Hall: “One of the problems in design is, there’s a point at which you’re supposed to lift the pen and walk away. And instead, they keep sketching. It’s being optimized, but it’s being overdone. It’s my contention that it’s now the common way cars are designed and I would suggest it’s because of the design tools that designers are using. It’s digital.”
There’s a lot of great information about design in that show. And this coming Thursday, our guest on Autoline After Hours is Matt Brueggeman, the CEO of Flux Mopeds. Those things are electric and he wants to blow the market for micro mobility wide open. Join John and Gary to find out how he wants to do that.
But that wraps up today’s show. Thanks for watching.
Thanks to our partner for embedding Autoline Daily on its website: WardsAuto.com
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Comments (31)
April 5th, 2021 at 12:21 pm
Sure you can shorten the development time to launch a vehicle but how many changes came in after production start of those VWs? All vehicles find flaws or weaknesses in design through their Mule builds and if time allows changes are made. If not they become running changes and its why people say not to buy a first year model car.
Tesla starting to feel the pinch of other BEVs coming to market. Still a demanding lead but should be a warning shot of things to come.
April 5th, 2021 at 12:50 pm
As good as the Mercedes EQS’ interior looks incredible and the range they are suggesting is very impressive. The question becomes, with the EQE intended to ride on the same platform, but be a smaller vehicle, will it have the same range? Like with the Hummer truck and SUV, with the wheel base being shorter, this is going to affect the vehicles power or range. With ICE vehicles, while they may have different mpg, many can go at least 400+ miles on a full tank of gas. With BEV’s that share architectures with sister vehicles of different sizes, where will the trade off be? Will be less power so as to keep the range, or max power with less range? Would Lucid build a compact or midsize vehicle from the bones of the Air, with an average 0-to-60 time of 4.5 to 6 seconds, in an effort to give it 400+ miles of range with RWD and/or AWD? Based on what they’ve suggested, the standard EQS will have about 400 miles of range with the RWD. With the EQE, how much range will it have With its shorter wheel base?
April 5th, 2021 at 12:57 pm
BEV manufacturers I hope will agree on some sort of standard way of publishing EV range and charging. Anyone can look at an ICE window sticker and know city/Hwy and combined fuel economy numbers mean but many people will be confused by EV jargon.
Seems all they advertise is range, how about efficiency like miles per KW and charging times 120 vs 220 or quick charge times.
Also range at 70 deg vs range at 20 deg. Seems there is a lot more to consider on an EV and seems it could be important when picking out an EV.
April 5th, 2021 at 12:57 pm
A good example of over designing was the rear of the previous generation Ford Escape. Too many lines and shapes.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:02 pm
Tesla will obviously lose EV market share, a lot of EV market share, as more EVs hit the market, but should continue to increase overall market share for some time to come, as additional factories come on-line.
2 There isn’t really much performance vs. range tradeoff with EVs. The tradeoff is performance vs. manufacturing cost, if you have the same size battery.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=42274&id=42275&id=42279
I’m pretty sure the three Tesla Model 3 versions shown have the same size battery, with minimal difference in range, but large difference in performance, at least in straight line acceleration.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:04 pm
2 Yeah, the shorter vehicles are likely to have less space to package batteries, and less range due to smaller batteries.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:08 pm
Sean,
On the Volvo V90 story on Friday, the main reason you don’t see more of them being sold is that when it was launched last year Volvo told the US dealers that they did not want them to stock any wagons, just the S90 sedan. Customers that wanted a V90 would need to order one. So, the plan was that all US V90 sales would be sold orders. I thought it was kind of an odd approach and a bit of a self-fulfilling sales prophecy in this market. If people can’t see and drive one, you are definitely handicapping your sales efforts.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:09 pm
3 There is a standard way of publishing EV range, and efficiency.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=42274&id=43663&id=41413&id=43499
April 5th, 2021 at 1:14 pm
7 Yep, no wonder they don’t sell any. I learned that the only V90s dealers ever get is sold orders, when I went to a dealer to try to see what the car looked like “in person.” Not a lot of people are going to want to order a car that will take 3 months to get, without even seeing one. It’s clear that their intent is justify dropping the wagon in the US market because “nobody buys them.”
April 5th, 2021 at 1:22 pm
3,8 The EPA site shows charge times only with typical 240v home charging. For public fast charging, you’d need to look elsewhere. All EVs get about 4 miles/hour of charging, plus or minus a little, from a standard 120v outlet.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:26 pm
Tesla delivered 184,000 BEVs in 2021 Q1, up ~9% over 2020 Q1. A Tesla stockholder, actual deliveries are more important than bragging about ‘market share.’ Deliveries are revenue.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:28 pm
@ 47, Elons dream is to have as much as many ICE of our roads as possible, so more Legacy and new automakers is his dream, he realizes Tesla cannot do it alone,but Tesla will always be leading the “charge”, pun intended, the price of the stock is just a reflection of what investors think of the company, and its future, the price of legacy auto stock reflects on what their investors think where that company is headed, the latest example is VW April fool announcement of it changing its name to ” VoltsWagen” , its stock went up after that joke.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:29 pm
8 Yea that gives the full range (probably at optimum temp) the city and Hwy miles per KW and how many KW it takes to go 100 miles to give an idea of efficiency. But doesn’t provide anything for loss of range or efficiency at below freezing temps and it doesn’t address charging times. I would think recharge times would be as important as efficiency.
9 Maybe they figured like Tesla buyers that order without a test driving they could sell the wagon for those that wanted one, just based off the sedan.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:45 pm
A pretty nice comparo of the GMC Hummer, SUV versus Pickup truck. Yeah, it’s big, but if you want a link to TFL and the comparison: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afLJtfzBhpc
April 5th, 2021 at 1:47 pm
10 Yeah Bob! But last year everything was shut down so its not surprising sales are up 9% from last year. Yea they’re moving metal and making money but when comparing manufacturers to all the others, dealing with the same economic constraints and fluctuations from outside sources. Market share shows who is really excelling and who isn’t even when those numbers have been so up and down.
When and if Lordstown starts selling trucks and if they sell a modest 100 trucks this year and 500 next year. Stock owners can say sales are up 500% but its still not a big deal. Its still only 500 vehicles. So a 9% increase globally from a company that has 61% of US BEV sales that only account for a 2% slice total sales is not big news.
April 5th, 2021 at 1:51 pm
I think the big concern for EV drivers is less about range anxiety and more about public charging anxiety. If you were confident you could find a charger that was available and working every time you needed it, more people would be willing to try an EV. The current focus on battery range is the result of this worry. Tesla was totally correct to hit this head on. With charging confidence, (like everyone else has confidence they can find a gas station that is working and has gas), people would be willing to accept less range, a smaller battery, a lower cost vehicle, yet one that because it’s lighter is more efficient and charges faster. The key is reliable public charging. Who picks a gas car based on it’s tank size?
April 5th, 2021 at 1:59 pm
12 That’s all true, but the EPA ratings for gas cars don’t tell much about the loss of mpg in cold weather either. Yeah, there is more loss with an EV.
The EPA site gives charge times with a typical 240v home charging setup.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=42274&id=43663&id=41413&id=43499
Typical passenger EVs charge at about 4 miles per hour of charge with a regular 120v outlet.
MPGe can be converted to KWh/100 miles, or various other efficiency units. I don’t particularly like the MPGe units, but that is kind of a standard for EV efficiency in the US.
#9 Yeah, the wagon would drive similarly to the sedan, but it would be nice to see what it looks like, and how the cargo area can be configured, the floor length, etc.
April 5th, 2021 at 2:34 pm
I can’t speak for folks who live in major urban areas, but for those of us who live in rural areas it’s the combination of range and charging time that makes EVs less than appealing. I regularly take a 435 mile trip door-to-door, and using the shortest route, there are the grand total of 2 charging stations on it. With all but the longest range Tesla, I can’t make the second station, and the first station is 4.5KW unit (at a Ford dealership). To make a long story short, instead of the ~7 hour trip I now take, with an EV the time would grow to at least 11 hours and likely a bit more.
April 5th, 2021 at 3:17 pm
17 Yeah you can go find it on EPA website and do calculations but it would be nice if that information was presented like gas mileage is for ICEs. Lots of consumers out there that have no idea what a KW is let alone what it means in terms of range. Honestly most wont care if the car has a 100KW battery or a 500KW battery. They will want range and recharge times.
18 Perfect example why most EVs are just not that great for traveling. They can be perfect for around town and as a local commuter. Which is why I think you’ll see many families willing to get an EV, but will also retain an ICE for trips since most homes are two car homes anyway. Which again goes back to EV market share peaking at a 40% if that.
April 5th, 2021 at 3:56 pm
19 It seems that the EPA does present the information like for gas cars. That’s why they use MPGe for efficiency, rather than something like KWh/100 miles. The listing gets a little more complicated with a plug-in hybrid, like the Pacifica.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=42274&id=42016&id=43361&id=43497
In reality, I doubt if actual efficiency is a major factor with the EVs people buy. Range and charging availability are important, along with performance, which are a lot of why Tesla dominates EV sales. For EVs charged at home and used locally, is charging speed important? It wouldn’t be to me. If I had charging in a garage at my condo, one of my cars would probably be an EV, and I’d just plug it in, as needed, when I wasn’t driving it.
I agree completely that, for now, EVs are great for around town, if you can charge at home, but gas cars are much better for long trips.
April 5th, 2021 at 4:02 pm
20 cont. Looking more closely, they do give do give efficiency of EVs in KWh/100 miles in small print in the bottom of the “green box.”
April 5th, 2021 at 7:02 pm
Being uncertain about if an EV is right for me, I wonder if leasing one might be a good first step. But if I lease, do I have to pay for the cost of adding a charger or would these be included in the lease? If not, what is the sense of it all in the first place?
April 5th, 2021 at 7:59 pm
@ #22 When I looked into an EV that was one of my concerns, charging at home. The Chevy Volt and Bolt have 120 and 240 standard charging systems which you can simply plug into a home outlet The recharge times were 4-6 hours at 240V (240 is the equivalent of an electric dryer outlet) 8-12 at 120V standard outlet. A dedicated charger installed at home cost $800-1200 I was told at the time. In the Orlando area, Tesla has strategically placed superchargers around the Orlando area.
April 5th, 2021 at 8:08 pm
22 If you have a regular 120v outlet available, and if ~4 miles per hour of charge would work for you, you’d need nothing that didn’t come with the car. If you have an attached garage with your breaker box in the garage, it wouldn’t cost much to triple or quadruple that charge rate, if you have 40 amps of 240v capacity available for an outlet.
April 5th, 2021 at 9:06 pm
Test
April 5th, 2021 at 9:40 pm
As a general rule of thumb, exclusive and excessive use of percentages is a ‘red flag’ of a misleading report. So compare the first report that had units, excluding Tesla, and the second had percentages about ‘market share.’ How would an editor fix this?
“US EV Sales, 77,000″ becomes “US EV Sales, 77,000 and Tesla World Wide Sales 184,000.” In effect, Tesla is crushing US sales world wide. Of course this is somewhat comparing Apples and Oranges but begs the question of what were the Tesla EV Sales in the USA?
As for the Tesla “9%” increase 2020 vs 2021, bring the equivalent numbers for GM, Ford, or any other manufacturer for their equivalent Q1s. A Tesla stock owner, I remain happy.
April 5th, 2021 at 9:40 pm
5, 6, 16, 18) A Model 3 and S are both Tesla’s, but aren’t built from the same bones or platform. The 3′s wheel base is shorter and narrower the the S’s, but, if I’m not mistaken, the long range 3 gets 370 miles of range. I also believe that it has a very impressive 0-to-60 time as well. If that time was geared back to that of your average ICE vehicle (0-to-60 in about 5 or 6 seconds), could it achieve 400 miles of range? That’s might question with the EQS and the EQE. It is clead that the EQS will have all the bells and whistles. Yet, like most luxury brands, the midsize vehicle(s) are their bread and butter, where their money is made! With the EQS and EQE sharing a platform, will they be will the sacrifice range for power, especially with many potential customers having range anxiety. Even with a smaller wheel base, with battery packs that are denser, and therefore can store more power, they could theoretically keep 400 miles of range for the smaller EQE. I point out 400 miles because, IMHO, it seems that might be range point that many may feel that a BEV makes since, for the right price. If a EV can get 400 miles, that means if my five day drive to and from work is 60 miles a day round trip, that’s only 300 miles per week. That still gives me 100 miles of range to run errands on the weekend, or if bad weather or sunny days has me driving with the heat and A/C on. This allows me to only charge one day a week over night, regardless if it takes 20-40 minutes or 11 hours! I’m not saying that this is the vehicle you take on vacation or on long trips to the in-laws house. And it might not be the king of the Autobahn, or the vehicle that Mac takes on his 435 Mile trip (is that trip everyday, once or twice a week, month or year? Yikes!), but a vehicle the average person can live with worry of they are a family member being stuck on the side of the road with now fuel. And let’s be honest, all or most of us, at one time or low point in our lives, has found themselves on the side of the road, with an ICE vehicle and out of gas! We learned that lesson the hard way and have made the needed changes so that this will never happen again (well…most of us have). So to think that this will not happen to a driver of an EV at some point in time, may mean that we are overly optimistic. Fueling stations sell gas cans for a reason and I know someone who ran out of gas twice in one day! Maybe the next billion dollar invention is the portable battery pack that, like a gas can, will give a BEV just enough power to make it to the next charging station. Hmmmm!
April 6th, 2021 at 8:43 am
It’s been many years since I’ve run out of gas, but I ran out several times, back when I was driving cars only 225-250 mile range, like a 1966 Dodge with a ~16 gallon tank, that got only 14-15 mpg on the highway.
April 6th, 2021 at 10:12 am
Kit @ #5 It’s a good thing our Tesla cheerleader isn’t still here. He’d have his CAPS lock button fused and you’d be getting blasted with all things from his lord and savior Elon. LOL
April 6th, 2021 at 10:32 am
26 Kit, I’ve run out of gas exactly once in my life, in my 1973 Plymouth (first car) I managed to do it during rush hour, so I’m sure I annoyed a lot of drivers that day!
April 6th, 2021 at 11:32 am
I suspect it would not be good to run my Camry hybrid out of gas. It might keep trying to start the engine until the high voltage battery was run down, and it would take more than putting gas in the tank to get going.