AD #3352 – EV Raw Material Costs = 2X ICE; $4,500 Union EV Incentive Officially Dead; Ford’s 2,000 HP Transit Van
June 23rd, 2022 at 11:59am
Listen to “AD #3352 – EV Raw Material Costs = 2X ICE; $4,500 Union EV Incentive Officially Dead; Ford’s 2,000 HP Transit Van” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 11:09
0:08 Tesla Loses Billions on New Plants, Of Course
0:50 Musk Says Tesla May Start Advertising
1:36 Raw Material Costs for EV = 2X ICE
2:51 $4,500 Union EV Incentive Officially Dead
4:17 IndyCar Eats Up 25,000 Firestones A Year
5:08 Ford’s 2,000 HP Transit Van
6:01 Cadillac Celestiq Interior Teaser
7:37 Infiniti Starts Free Maintenance Program
8:24 Honda CR-V Interior Teasers
8:58 CATL Qilin Battery Boasts Fast Charge Time
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TESLA LOSES BILLION$ ON NEW PLANTS, OF COURSE
Elon Musk says Tesla is losing billions of dollars on its new assembly plants in Austin and Berlin. But as anyone in the auto industry knows, that’s true of every single new assembly plant. They don’t start making money until they get up to full line speed and really start cranking out vehicles. And Tesla’s newest assembly plants probably won’t get up to full line speed until sometime next year. There’s a general rule of thumb in the industry that assembly plants don’t start to make money until they hit 80% of capacity utilization. But once they do hit that point, they become money machines.
MUSK SAYS TESLA MAY START ADVERTISING
In an interview with the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley club, Elon Musk also said that Tesla is considering running ads to counteract a bias that he sees in the media against him and Tesla. Up to now Musk has famously bragged that Tesla will never spend money on advertising. But Tesla got rid of its Public Relations office several years ago and rarely responds to requests from the media for comments or clarifications. And that leaves a void in the media’s reporting. So when you don’t tell the media your side of the story, it inevitably leads to reporting that will appear to be one-sided. And that’s true whether you’re talking about business, politics or the entertainment industry.
RAW MATERIAL COSTS FOR EV = 2X ICE
Some interesting data from AlixPartners about the transition to electric vehicles. EVs accounted for less than 8% of global sales last year but that will ramp up to 33% by 2028 and 54% by 2035. To help meet that demand, automakers will invest $526 billion on EVs and batteries between now and 2026. AlixPartners says the industry faces a big challenge transitioning from ICEs to EVs. As of May, raw material costs for EVs is $8,225 per vehicle. That’s twice as much as ICE vehicles at $3,662. And it will cost OEMs and suppliers $70 billion to make the ICE to EV switch. As for overall vehicle sales, it’s still going to be a couple of years before they recover from parts shortages. AlixPartners estimates global sales will reach 79 million this year before rebounding to 95 million in 2024.
$4,500 UNION EV INCENTIVE OFFICIALLY DEAD
That extra $4,500 tax credit for electric vehicles made by union workers? It’s officially dead. In an interview with Bloomberg, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin said that union incentive is off the table. It was going to be part of the climate package being negotiated with other Democrats. The policy would have given EV buyers the extra incentive on top of the $7,500 tax credit currently available. It also would lift the 200,000 sales cap for OEMs and at the moment that portion is still on the table. It’s not too surprising the extra incentive is dead, Tesla and the transplant automakers have publicly criticized the proposal and so did Canada and Mexico, which were worried it would harm their auto industries.
INDYCAR EATS UP 25,000 FIRESTONES A YEAR
Take a moment, pause the video if you have to, and think about the number of tires you’ve gone through in your life. No matter how high the number, I bet, it pales in comparison to how many racecar drivers go through. As the sole supplier for IndyCar, Firestone produces more than 25,000 tires every year for the racing series. That’s for 17 races, including testing and qualifying, but still a lot of tires. It will also become sole provider for the Indy Lights Series next year, so parent company Bridgestone expanded its tire plant in Akron, Ohio. The $21 million investment will allow it to make all of its race tires and small batches of specialty tires for both racing and on-road vehicles.
FORD’S 2,000 HP TRANSIT VAN
Like the Mustang Mach-E 1400, Ford once again took its newest electric vehicle and made it the ultimate tire burner. But the Ford Pro Electric SuperVan, which is inspired by the E-Transit Custom, doesn’t have a paltry 1,400 HP. No, it has nearly 2,000. It all comes from 4 electric motors that provide a sub-2 second 0-100 km/h time. It also features race-spec suspension and brakes. I think it’s really interesting how the side panels, where the rear windows might be, are folded in and brought together, which creates like a little boattail, but must drastically improve aero as well. The SuperVan is on display now at the Goodwood Festival of Speed.
CADILLAC CELESTIQ INTERIOR TEASERS
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we might have to revise our price estimate for the new Cadillac Celestiq again. We originally thought it would be priced above $200,000, but now we think that estimate is too low. Just look at the detail in these new teaser shots. It’s especially true of the seats that look like they have a ton of adjustment as well as a unique V-shaped pattern with multiple materials and we’d guess that the brushed aluminum section below the headrest is a neck warmer and cooler. The center console is also styled in several different materials and also features a small display screen that likely controls the HVAC and/or infotainment. The Celestiq is scheduled to debut late next month. And we’re curious. What do you think it will cost?
INFINITI STARTS FREE MAINTENANCE PROGRAM
Infiniti is launching a maintenance program for new car buyers that’s included on all 2023 model year purchases sold in the U.S., including leases. Owners get 3-years of free inspections, oil changes, tire rotations, tire road hazard assistance and more. While this is great for customers, automakers only do deals like this to get on shopping lists. And it’s easy to see why Infiniti wants to do that, its sales are lagging far behind its competitors. Last year, it sold just about 58,500 vehicles in the U.S. That’s nearly 100,000 fewer cars than Acura. While BMW and Lexus sold more than 300,000 vehicles.
HONDA CR-V INTERIOR TEASER
Honda recently teased the front and rear end styling of the new CR-V and now it’s giving us a look at the interior. As you can see, the center display screen sits on top of the dash, instead of being integrated. And the dashboard itself is more streamlined and not curvy like before. The shift knob is now a bit off center with the buttons around the shifter placed near the driver. Honda hasn’t released any specifics about the new CR-V but we’ll learn more when it debuts on July 12.
CATL QILIN BATTERY BOASTS FAST CHARGE TIME
We’re getting more information about the latest battery design from CATL. As we’ve reported before, the new design is called Qilin and boosts the energy density to 255 watt hours per kilogram. That’s reportedly about the same as Tesla’s 2170 batteries, but below the 276 wh/kg of its latest 4680 batteries. CATL’s cell-to-pack design also achieves a volume utilization of 72%, which it claims is the best in the world. A real big benefit is that it says the battery pack will go from a 10% to 80% charge in only 10 minutes with a fast charger. One reason is that it uses liquid cooling passages between the battery cells, and not on the bottoms of the cells as it previously did. The Qilin packs will go into production next year.
AAH: ARE CLAY MODELS NECESSARY?
Do car designers really need to use clay models? That’s the topic on Autoline After Hours later today. When Lynk & Co unveiled its newest concept car, called The Next Day, it also revealed that it did not use a clay model to save development time. It was completely designed in the digital world. So is that the future for automotive design? To get to the bottom of that we’ve got Doug Grieg, the CEO of a company called Tarus that makes 5-axis milling machines for clay models. We’ve got the designer John Manoogian joining us as well. And you can sit in on the discussion on our website or YouTube channel.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Please like, comment or subscribe.
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Comments (31)
June 23rd, 2022 at 12:17 pm
It is exciting to see Cadillac re-entering the ultra-luxury arena again. It is also exciting to see regular reveals to spur interest and provide continuity till launch. While this vehicle will be of a limited production, and quite pricey, it should be a fine representative of what Cadillac once was and where it is going again.
June 23rd, 2022 at 12:30 pm
-1. agreed. I will be very interested in seeing the Cadillac Celestiq from a styling standpoint when revealed.
June 23rd, 2022 at 12:35 pm
@Chuck & Alex – Not sure if you saw the Celestiq teasers we showed earlier this month. But one of the bolts for the door hinge was stamped with its old line “standard of the world.”
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:06 pm
Very interesting to hear the raw materials cost delta between EV and ICE vehicles is $5k, much less than I thought. I guess the complete analysis should consider labor costs considering plant and platform built for purpose, w/o scar tissue and no line sharing between EV and ICE. I suspect cost parity is already here for those who do EVs right.
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:16 pm
‘Clean Technica’ writers are unaware of decades of anti-Musk articles by TESLAQ and Tesla short sellers. Their recent Musk article (see web link) tries the same nonsense tried by others. Still, if you want to hate Musk, enjoy the mud.
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:28 pm
4 I’d think the biggest thing needed to reach cost parity would be efficiency in converting raw materials into batteries.
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:43 pm
5 Is anything in the linked article untrue?
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:54 pm
I feel sorry for the workers who could lose their jobs, but I don’t feel sorry for Elon Musk because of his lies and decdptions which helped Tesla grow. But the time of rekoning is around the corner. We will soon see the real leader of EV’s. Some may think who I say it will is a joke….like always. But, GM has always been in the forefront of EV tech and has kept quiet through the years. They just waited for better batteries and they now have them. Good luck Tesla.
June 23rd, 2022 at 1:58 pm
Its been a long time since anyone other than Cadillac called them Standard of the World. Perhaps they should concentrate on building their reputation and sales rather than nominating themselves the Standard of the World. When your brand sales rank 6th among luxury brands in your home country, this kind of self-nominating bravado speaks volumes about what has been wrong with Cadillac for decades.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:00 pm
5,7 And that doesn’t give Elon ‘carte-blanche’ either as some of the ‘Muskavites’ adhere to. Elon plays a lot of stuff both ways; I welcome all news and comment so I can decide for myself and not bow to his decrees.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:03 pm
I’ll posit that the Celestiq will be of no import whatsoever. The pricetag is simply a modern analog to the Allanté’s flight over the Atlantic. But we’ll see.
However, there are new pics of production Lyriqs floating around the web, and with the rear lights blacked out, the design looks far less of a jumble. It has actually been garnering a lot of praise.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:03 pm
This is not the old GM anymore. As an ex GM worker, you should know GM has the know how and now has the will to build the best. Wait and see.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:20 pm
That Transit van is a homage to the original British Transit Super Van that had a GT40 engine installed mid ship in the cargo bay . There is video on youtube from the 70s of it pulling the inside wheel off the ground during acceleration . Which to me looked pretty damn hairy to drive.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:21 pm
About CATL’s Qilin battery packs: in the vid, there’s a cooling plate on the bottom.
This is what Tesla envisioned on ‘battery day’ for the 4680 packs and made quite some noise about, together with new cell chemistries and the tabless design.
Actual Tesla production parts feature liquid cooling ducts between cells, just like what CATL is positing for their next generation according to the video.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:31 pm
Somehow, projects like Celestiq don’t interest me much. Building a few hundred very expensive cars probably doesn’t make money, even though they are very expensive, and it would seem that the money used to develop Celestiq could be better used elsewhere.
While hybrids have limited appeal, that is what I like for a “general use” vehicle, and Toyota is who makes the best hybrids. I think GM should make hybrid Equinox and/or Traverse, but it won’t happen. The last hybrid GM sold, the Malibu was not competitive with the Camry I bought. It got far lower mpg, and the trunk was partly lost to the battery, while Toyota puts it under the rear seat cushion. GM has a “specialty car,” namely Corvette that I like a lot, but none of the current GM mainstream products appeal to me much.
I’ll be curious about Lyriq, and could be interested, if and when I have home charging available.
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:32 pm
With all those geeks, nerds, engineers, scientists working on battery design surely there will be better faster bigger cheaper batteries coming to the forefront hence batteries that are a 10th the price of 10 years ago perhaps we can look forward to a repeat performance
June 23rd, 2022 at 2:36 pm
16 Current batteries are barely over a 10th the price of 10 years ago, but the price is now going up, because of the cost of raw materials. LiFeP, or whatever it is, should help with that, in using fewer really expensive materials.
June 23rd, 2022 at 3:26 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg6WdboK1nY
Transit Super Van 1971
June 23rd, 2022 at 3:50 pm
related to 12
Here is an example of GM making things better that drastically needed attention.
Yes, this is the new GM under the control of Mary Barra. You will start believing as time goes by.
https://www.autoblog.com/2022/06/23/2022-gmc-sierra-denali-ultimate-interior-review/
June 23rd, 2022 at 4:00 pm
I believe GM has hit a home run with the new Cadillac’s and are “in the hunt” to bypass others who have out gunned them the past number of years
June 23rd, 2022 at 4:04 pm
18 Kind of like a Barracuda “hemi under glass,” only a van. Pretty cool.
June 23rd, 2022 at 4:05 pm
21 continued—except Supervan was intended to turn, and not just go in a straight line.
June 23rd, 2022 at 6:19 pm
The van was good at lifting its inside front wheel in turns, but without rolling. I’m surprised it wasn’t quicker, though, 14.5 sec quarter mile. Some front drive cars are quicker.
June 24th, 2022 at 3:06 am
I needed to know more about the Qilin battery pack architecture. At 1:41, you can clearly see the cooling channels interleaved with the cells. Perfectly sensible, I’m not quite sure what’s really new here. It just works.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZN2EGa2zuA
June 24th, 2022 at 6:23 am
Yeah , it was shaped like a brick that didn’t help and geared for top speed rather than off the line acceleration.Still impressive for 1971.
June 24th, 2022 at 6:26 am
23 even the 1966 Ford GT that the engine came from only ran the 1/4 in 12.1 sec and only sat 40 inches off the ground and a lot slippery than the pill box on wheels.
June 24th, 2022 at 7:05 am
25,26 The tires of that time wouldn’t have helped either, especially if street tires.
June 24th, 2022 at 7:10 am
“5 Is anything in the linked article untrue?”
- “the emperor really is walking about while wearing no clothes”
- “the sole arbiter of what people could and could not say on social media”
- “a group of dissatisfied SpaceX employees” some are former employees
- ” the company is not living up to its oft-stated “No Asshole” policy and its zero-tolerance sexual harassment policy”
- “racketeering for touting Dogecoin and driving up its price”
- “neglected to tackle complaints about workplace discrimination and harassment”
- “In retaliation, he decided to move Tesla headquarters to Texas” a business friendly state.
- “entire ethnic minority to being virtual slaves” having nothing to do with Tesla in China
The article spews anti-Musk claims common in the TESLAQ and SeekingAlpha communities. Small wonder that Musk is changing the Tesla lawer team approach to react to such lies and mischaracterizations.
June 24th, 2022 at 10:09 am
28 Other than that, the author of the article is a big fan of Elon. Yeah, the article was kind of biased.
June 24th, 2022 at 10:23 am
Kit @ 27 very true and they looked to be 13 inch.
June 24th, 2022 at 11:13 am
XA351GT – Neat, that Supervan. With a bottomless frunk too! Fantastic sounds, augmented by some body shakes. Thank you for posting!