AD #3358 – Tesla Market Share About to Plummet; Lead In 12V Batteries 50-60 Years Old; Stellantis Converts Plant to EV Motors

July 1st, 2022 at 11:52am

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Listen to “AD #3358 – Tesla Market Share About to Plummet; Lead In 12V Batteries 50-60 Years Old; Stellantis Converts Plant to EV Motors” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 10:19

0:08 Tesla Market Share About to Plummet
1:35 Tesla Stock Follows Auto Sector
2:34 BMW Kills Off i3
3:59 GM Cruise Has Bugs to Work Out
4:21 Chevy Extends Price Cut to Older Bolt Owners
5:07 General Motors Provides EV 1st Responder Training
5:52 Stellantis Converts Diesel Plant to EV Motors
7:43 Lead In 12V Batteries 50-60 Years Old

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37 Comments to “AD #3358 – Tesla Market Share About to Plummet; Lead In 12V Batteries 50-60 Years Old; Stellantis Converts Plant to EV Motors”

  1. Dave Says:

    In as recently as November of 2020 expert opinion was predicting as slight increase in production of BEV vehicles by 2025 [they got that wrong already] with these so called experts saying that Tesla with all their automation technology and functional design expertise to create a fun vehicle [John stop smiling as you remember your Model S Plaid experience I saw it] to say that Tesla’s market share is going to drop precipitously? What can I say 3 years is not that long, we’ll soon see

  2. Lex Says:

    Tesla is producing quality versus quantity when it comes to EV market share. They are improving and refining their current models and have not had an incident like GM Cruise experienced in today’s episode. Legacy OEM’s are saddled with ICE plants and technology which is why Toyota is begging governments to extend the time to eliminate ICE vehicles. Tesla is more than Elon Musk. All the People at Tesla understand the mission and are working towards a less carbon intensive world in the future. You should be concerned for GM, Ford and Stellantis to a lesser degree once the Chinese’s OEM start setting up shop in the America’s and Europe. They will flood those markets with less expensive and high quality EV’s according to Sandy Munro of Munro and Associates. My money is on Tesla because it is more than a automotive OEM.

  3. GM Veteran Says:

    1 – Oh, Tesla’s market share will certainly drop significantly. Not necessarily their sales though. Tesla has 75% of the EV market. There is no way they can hang onto that with the flood of EV models coming from well-established automakers with large dealer bodies. Elon is well aware of this. However, Tesla will continue to sell many vehicles and launch new innovations while making a nice profit. Over time, their stock will come more into line with other automakers too.

  4. Lex Says:

    When are you guy’s going to have Ralph Giles back on AAH’s to discuss Jeep’s EV plans beyond the Wrangler? The pictures of that Compact Jeep BEV has been receiving quite alot of buzz. I and certainly many others would like to know more about Jeep’s future product line.

  5. GM Veteran Says:

    2 – Tesla does not have an autonomous ride service. They have a semi-autonomous drive feature that will not function without a human in the vehicle. The Cruise vehicles were truly autonomous and no human driver was aboard. And incidents like this is why their service is currently limited in scope and hours of the day. It still has some development work to do.

  6. GM Veteran Says:

    4 – That would be a very short discussion.

  7. DanaPointJohn Says:

    Sean, have a great holiday break. Hello to your dad from me.
    After a week, your new studio backdrop is okay, but too busy and too much going on. Simplify it with fewer patterns and
    tchotchkes. See you next week!

  8. Albemarle Says:

    I imagine that watching the Cruise ‘convention’ live would have been a very spooky experience.

  9. Lambo2015 Says:

    Lets face it market share in an emerging market means little. Tesla started strong and no doubt will continue to grow in sales. All good things even if market share plummets. They will be making money and likely continue to expand. I’m not sure it would have been a good idea for Tesla to grown much faster than it has. There are downfalls to growing too quickly and if anything they should have launched the truck already. Other than that I’m sure Tesla will do just fine.

  10. Lambo2015 Says:

    Coming from an Engineering background I just would like to say that although pilot programs like Cruise open the company up for criticism. Its part of the process of trying to get a new technology to market. Yes bugs will happen and need to be worked out.
    What people should be taking away from this is, they had a glitch and stopped in place. They may have created some traffic congestion but mush better than a glitch allowing them to run over pedestrians, crash into firetrucks or cause injuries. I for one prefer this type of glitch over the many other options that could have happened. Seems they have code written that when it doubt don’t do anything and stop. Seems like the right thing to do.

  11. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Tesla cars have good points, mainly the best efficiency in the business, but they have bad points too, like no wiper switch, and a weird “yoke” for a steering wheel. I hope the emerging competition will result in Tesla rethinking some of their “features” where different is not necessarily good.

    It will be many years before Tesla’s market share is known is a world where most cars are EVs. If they stay with only a few models, they will be like VW was when they had only a few models, all of them air cooled. A proliferation of models in many market segments is what made VW one of the biggest car companies in the world. Does Tesla want to be as big as VW or Toyota are now? Probably no one knows, not even Elon Musk.

  12. Drew Says:

    @2 – If you want to compare GM Cruise to Tesla, one key difference stands out dramatically. When Cruise is confused, it stops and avoids an accident. Tesla, on the other hand, runs into things at a very high speed. This is consistent with a Speed Of Thought mentality… letting the customers be the beta testers… safety be damned.

  13. Ziggy Says:

    After viewing your new studio set up for a week I prefer the old set up, especially when it comes to viewing you, just head without glasses is easier to watch and less distracting, I even like the old background better too. Have a great week off!

  14. Kit Gerhart Says:

    I think a plain, beige background would be good. Less contoversial, or maybe grey would be better.

  15. MJB Says:

    I think Tesla (Musk) made a wise decision early on to focus on the few segments he did, instead of going whole-hog and introducing entrants for each vehicle segment. This is a choice any quickly growing business must make – and it’s got to be a well-informed one. Otherwise it can spell disaster because they either expanded too quickly or not quickly enough. And considering the market share Tesla has right now, it’s clear they’ve done a lot of things right.

    BUT, if they’re not careful and responsive to the market, they may eventually suffer sales loss by a thousand cuts – curtesy of Lucid Air, GM, Hyundai, Kia, VW, etc.

  16. MJB Says:

    13, 14 – I think I’d like to see them go full-on ESPN production set, but with some sort of automotive motif and, as you pointed out Ziggy, perhaps pulling the camera back in closer to Sean.
    Like this: https://static3.thesportsterimages.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/scott-4214.jpg

    Even if it’s not a high-dollar set like ESPN or the like, perhaps a full height and width digital screen to fill the entire shot behind Sean. It’d be clean, plus any imagery could be shown on it.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 Tesla has had the right products, it has turned, but who would have guessed. Their first high(er) volume product was a large hatchback, priced like an S-Class. Who would have guessed that would go over well, even though it looks good and drives well? Then, their first truly high volume product was a sedan with less cabin space and worse ride than a Camry or Accord, for twice the price, introduced at a time that sedan sales were crashing. How far can the cult following and good charge network take them? A long way, so far.

  18. Sean Wagner Says:

    Good comments (of course). Just to remind Tesla’s mission was never to dominate the industry, but speed up the transition to sustainable transportation.

    And I doubt they could have ramped up even faster. It’s not long ago that their building the Nevada Gigafactory was a source of merriment to many.

    But now Shanghai is on course for an output of 1 million pa., and Berlin/Brandenburg as well as Austin only coming online. Tesla usually pays close attention to cell supply.

    What bothers me is Elon Musk’s focus on Autopilot as the imminent be all and end all, while I think they will need a greater variety of vehicles when battery costs come down further.

    I do wish for a usable Wuling-style Tesla that hews to the original ethos. But margins would go poof… even though their total business would still be growing.

  19. Bob Wilson Says:

    In the January 2022 quarterly review, Elon was asked about model delays:

    “We will not be introducing new vehicle models this year,” Musk said. “It would not make any sense because we’ll still be parts constrained. We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling and whatnot to create those vehicles . . .”

    Unlike John Murphy of Bank America, Elon knows and manages the resources needed for products not just how many different models exist. In John’s defense, there are ~10 quarters between his market share of 67% projection down to 11% or ~5.5% per quarter. We’ll soon know if counting models defines market share.

    BTW, the single motor, Model 3 went through three variations between 2019 and 2022 with each being better than the previous year. Then there is there are the “plaid” variants that John does not count.

  20. Bob Wilson Says:

    About ‘luxury’ and Tesla products, Tesla has moved the boundary between ordinary and luxury cars. By taking market share from traditional luxury manufacturers like BMW, Tesla has moved the goal posts moving advanced technology down to ordinary cars.

  21. Bob Wilson Says:

    My 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range has +72,290 miles with ~7.9% battery degradation. I recently completed a solo drive with AutoPilot between Coffeyville KS and Huntsville AL: 794 miles; $59.64 Supercharger fees and;; ~48 mph.

    So $59.64 would buy ~11 gallons of regular or ~10 gallons of diesel. The car would have to get 72.19 MPG on gas or 79.4 MPG on diesel. Around town, the car gets ~3x more miles per kWh or ~216 MPG.

  22. Kit Gerhart Says:

    21 etc., Do Tesla charger costs vary by location? Is the cost for “supercharging” the same, regardless of year and car model, unless you got in on the “free charging for life” that I think once went with Models S?

  23. Bob Wilson Says:

    There are two charging systems: (1) per kWh, and; (2) time-based tiers. In Arkansas, $0.40/kWh and $0.34/kWh in Alabama. These prices are state-by-state.

    Some States forbid kWh pricing so Tesla has two time tiers based on the rate. So Tennessee has a time based charging depending upon the rate of charging: (1) $0.43/min tier 2, and (2) $0.23/min tier 1, the lower rate.

    The only per vehicle prices was an earlier promotion that if you referred a customer, both got a fixed amount of ‘free’ charging. Some legacy models have lifetime free charging.

  24. Bob Wilson Says:

    UPDATE: reviewing my charges on the trip out, Tennessee has three tiers: (1) tier 3 $073/minute; (2) tier 2 $0.43/minute, and; (3) tier 1 $0.23/minute.

  25. Bob Wilson Says:

    Before criticizing John Murphy’s report about Tesla market share, it makes sense to review his slide-deck, the web link. My earlier post was about Elon’s comment on adding additional model production.

  26. Bob Wilson Says:

    Opps, that was a 2021 slide deck. Still need the 2022 deck.

  27. Dave Foley Says:

    I don’t mind the new set, but it could use some ‘vibrance’. A bit monotone for my likes, but I’m far from the arbtrar of taste. ;)

    However I do have a suggestion on the lighting. Both lights on the talent need to be raised up, AND also diffused. The hard shadow made by Seans glasses on his face almost line up right in line with the ends of his eyes. It isn’t flattering at all. It makes his eyes look wider somehow. Glasses with wider temples can be lit around. But this one is …. rough. Former professional photographer here, and it’s …… weird.

    Tesla market share of “EV’S” specifically, will undoubtedly drop. But their brand market share seems to only be growing. LOEM EV cars will likely and largely only cannibalize LOEM ICE car sales. Maybe Tesla’s growth may slow, but their brand market share will undoubtedly grow, at least for a few years here. LOEM’s are still trying to figure out how to build one, and/or, how to build them profitably. That is a HUGE advantage for Telsa.

  28. Kit Gerhart Says:

    If Tesla wants to continue to expand in Europe and some parts of Asia, they will need new product, like a Polo/Fiesta type car at a decent price. It appears that they can still expand with what they have, though, in China and North America.

  29. Lambo2015 Says:

    28 Just saw a video of the Solo which looks like it may only be available in California or some select states. To me that’s the perfect EV. Actually I liked the design of the Elio because it allowed for a passenger. However the Solo would be a great go to work car. I wouldn’t use it for much else as its a single seater but a good little runabout. Lots of people whine about safety and that its so small but I ride a motorcycle and its bigger than that. If a few more companies would come out with something like this and keeping it around 15K I think I may get one.

  30. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    29) Looks like a squashed Honda. I like the concept of a cheap daily driver as well. Of course I too liked the original Elio as a concept. It was to start at an even lower price point then the solo, at least originally. A shame they didn’t get it into production but that was going to happen as soon as they said they would make their own engine.

    Safety is of course a concern. The original Elio concept did not require a motorcycle endorsement as Elio was not bypassing safety requirements. Looks like the Solo will require a motorcycle endorsement though which limits the potential customer base.

  31. Lambo2015 Says:

    30 Yea the Elio’s attempt to launch came out just a bit too late. Gas prices were cheap and they struggled with funding that pushed their launch date out to where EVs were replacing any need for a high mileage ICE.
    Still wish one of these start ups would take their design and revise it to electric and launch it.
    The three wheel cars are the ideal use for an EV in my opinion. Selling an EV as a replacement for your ICE means the customer expects it to fully replace their ICE and EVs just are not great for traveling. So why not capitalize on what they are good at. Local commuting go to work and store and around town. So few people carpool and so you have all these vehicles going back and fourth to work with a single occupant. If your not using it to travel or transport the kids why would you need more than two seats. Plus with it being a three wheel you can cut weight and make the EV even more aerodynamic and lighter = efficient.
    But you need to keep the price down so that people can afford to use it as a go to work car and keep an ICE for trips and taking the family or towing.
    If they would stop designing them like a Fiesta and give it some attractive lines like an enclosed Slingshot or the Elio at least. I think being a convertible would be great too. It would be small enough it could be manual and not impact weight too much. Especially if they made it like a jeep removable top.

  32. Kit Gerhart Says:

    30 In many states, taking a two day class will get you a motorcycle endorsement. It’s a bit of a hassle, but you only need to do it once, at least where I’ve lived.

  33. Lambo2015 Says:

    When I got my cycle endorsement you just needed to pass the written exam and a driving course which would be tough to do with a 3 wheeled cycle. Some of the riding tests are obviously designed for motorcycles. slalom, starting a stopping in a strait line and making a U-turn in a single lane without placing your feet down. Not sure how they handle Trikes.

  34. Kit Gerhart Says:

    33 The classes I’m familiar with which a friend teaches, are on small motorcycles, which are provided. Taking the class gets you the endorsement, plus you get to experience riding a motorcycle, using a clutch, etc. if you’ve never done that before. I think only ~10% fail, and few fail twice. I’ll confirm that when I see the instructor friend in a few days. I think the classes are designed by MSF.

    I took a Spyder class a year ago, just for fun. They used part of the course used for two wheelers, including the swerve-to-avoid, but not the U-turn. I don’t know if any states would have specific tests to get a 3 wheeler endorsement, but I’m pretty sure you need a motorcycle endorsement in Indiana and Florida.

  35. Kit Gerhart Says:

    33,34 I just learned a little about Indiana laws. You need a motorcycle endorsement for a Spyder, or a trike made from a motorcycle, but not for a Slingshot, because Slingshot has a steering wheel. A Slingshot has a MC license plate in Indiana, though.

  36. Lambo2015 Says:

    35 So seems that most of these 3 wheeled EVs which are car like with steering wheels may fall into that grey area. It would be nice if they didn’t require a cycle endorsement. Yet also didn’t require three wheeled vehicles to comply with all the federal safety requirements. That way the vehicles could remain lightweight. Some people would avoid due to the lack of crash worthiness but if you know what your buying and the range and price is attractive enough I think they would still sell. I’ve never bought a car because of its safety features. Its like insurance, you don’t need it until you need it. Probably would feel different if transporting kids but for a go to work car I would certainly consider a three wheel EV.

  37. Kit Gerhart Says:

    36 It appears that there are no federal safety standards for three wheeled vehicles except lighting, at least for “open” vehicles like Slingshot. I suppose that could change if a lot of three wheelers hit the market promoted as practical commuters, rather than fun machines.