AD #3395 – Can Tesla Sell 20 Million EVs?; Charging Stations Need This Design Change; Volocopter Eyes 2024 Paris Olympics

August 30th, 2022 at 12:02pm

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Runtime: 10:45

0:07 IIHS Wants AEB to Work at Night
1:30 Skoda Finds Wiring Sources Outside of Ukraine
2:00 Can Tesla Really Sell 20 Million EVs?
3:02 Tesla Sues Louisiana Over Retail Rules
4:35 Volocopter Eyes 2024 Paris Olympics
5:13 Honda Launches Wild New Ad Campaign
5:54 Bridgestone Scales Up Guayule Production
7:26 EV Charging Stations Need This Simple Design Change
8:21 Toyota Smashes, Bashes & Crashes Vehicles

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33 Comments to “AD #3395 – Can Tesla Sell 20 Million EVs?; Charging Stations Need This Design Change; Volocopter Eyes 2024 Paris Olympics”

  1. ChuckGrenci Says:

    The simplest design change for EV charging is to make the chargers mimic the current fuel based refueling stations and have the same setup as drive throughs. I really don’t know why they failed to use the system that’s been working for decades.

  2. Lambo2015 Says:

    The IIHS wants EAB to work at night.. Well Hell yeah as a consumer or pedestrian I would hope it works at night too. That’s like providing wiper blades that only work in dry weather. There is a lot more traffic and pedestrians during the day which I’m sure is when most accidents happen but I would think its most useful at night.

  3. Lambo2015 Says:

    Sean maybe Elon’s goal is an indication he may be considering a JV or partnership with another EV company? Maybe one of these Chinese brands. It would make achieving his goal of 20 million EVs a lot more realistic.

  4. Marshy Says:

    1 I think a lot of EV charge installs are retrofits to existing parking so don’t take this into account. But you are right.

  5. Marshy Says:

    3 how many of these systems are visual only? Radar works fine at night.

  6. Marshy Says:

    70 crashes seems a little high? I can’t see smaller volume sellers smashing 70 Lambos… would be interested if someone here has direct experience or if the Toyota piece is marketing fluff out of context.

  7. Wim van Acker Says:

    @3 TESLA producing 20 million EVs in 2030 would be 20% of global vehicle production by then. If TESLA would produce 100% of all vehicles in the world they would need five times the $600 billion of investment.

    And if they would produce 200 million vehicles per year the world could build up inventory and after ten years all TESLA employees could take ten years of vacation. Oh, so many options to choose from :-)

  8. Norm T Says:

    Or laser like old Volvo and Infiniti’s use that does work well in preceptation.

    The radar adaptive cruise control works well in my Cadillac CT6 and thr night vision FLiR can pickup people and animals even in the fog, highlight their silhouette and vibrate my seat!

  9. Drew Says:

    Shame on IIHS. We told them 10 years ago that camera-based systems don’t work reliably at night. But they desperately wanted to put Subaru’s EyeSight system (stereo camera-only back then) up on a pedestal.

    And I hope Tesla drivers are ever more diligent at night since Elon dropped the radar sensor from Tesla’s system.

  10. Bob Wilson Says:

    Tesla appears to grow at 50% per year:
    2021 – 1 m
    2022 – 1.5 m

    2028 – 17.1 m
    2029 – 25.7 m

    I would not bet against Tesla and Elon.

  11. Lambo2015 Says:

    10 I wouldn’t bet against Tesla either if they remained the only serious contender in the market. But with all the new entries and I honestly feel EV sales are going to plateau before 2030 so the growth may not continue at a steady pace.

  12. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Do the Mach-E and Pathfinder use radar? I know the Toyotas do. Maybe most, or all of the others do not, and just use cameras.

  13. Kit Gerhart Says:

    If Tesla is to have 20% of the global market, they will need a lot more than just 4 models, all of them at least fairly expensive.

    3 Yeah, maybe Elon’s plan is to buy some of the Chinese companies, so he could cover more of the market. Still, I don’t see Tesla, or anyone else having 20% of the global market. It’s not like when the Model T dominated globally. The T cost about a third as much as the competition. I don’t see that with Telsa.

  14. Albemarle Says:

    You wonder what’s the difference between Superior and Advanced. Does the car just wound the pedestrian on Advanced? Perhaps 3 misses out of 5 gets you a Basic rating? How about just Works and Doesn’t Work?

    This test should be easier with radar and camera, but two Subaru’s got an advanced rating and they don’t have radar. Perhaps the binocular camera system does have some advantages.

  15. joe Says:

    What I think really does not matter to the commentators here, because I rarely get anyone to respond. But, that’s okay because I know I’m not part of this clicque, but I will still say something now and then. Below, read the link about Elon Musk.

    https://nypost.com/2018/07/21/elon-musk-is-a-total-fraud/

  16. Wim van Acker Says:

    @15 I highly respect Elon Musk’s vision on different topics and what he has accomplished. The impact of his accomplishments makes him one of the most important people in the world. I am concerned that parts of his personal life, much of which probably still unknown right now, will make him less effective. He lost me lately when he declared under-population to be the world’s major problem.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 That article was published 4 years ago.

    Yes, Elon lies, misses deadlines, and tweets stupid stuff too often, but to say “He has yet to succeed at anything but somehow spins every failure into proof of imminent success.” as the article says? Get serious. SpaceX has revolutionized low earth orbit space launches with low cost, and excellent reliability. Tesla dominates the global EV market. I like the the way the cars drive, but don’t like the interfaces, but to say Tesla is not a success is to completely ignore reality.

    Time will tell how things are going ten years from now, but at this time, Elon Musk is very successful, both with cars and rockets.

  18. Kit Gerhart Says:

    16 Yeah, Elon says some crazy things, about the craziest being that under-population is a problem.

  19. Wim van Acker Says:

    @15,16 in other words if transforming global transportation into electrified mobility, leveraging the natural resources of Mars, boring tunnels to realize high speed underground trains, and the other important projects he is working on would be enough to keep this genius busy, I would love that.

    Fighting over a $44 billion Twitter take-over, making statements about under-population and some other stuff are deflections, IMHO.

  20. Lambo2015 Says:

    15 Joe I wouldn’t worry so much about what others think or if they respond to your posts. If you feel you have something worth sharing post away. Many here (myself included) will post thoughts and opinions and with a few exceptions have friendly debate and some great discussions.

  21. joe Says:

    There is no questions about his success. But what I question is how he got there. Being deceitful is not a virtue I would equate as being intelligent. That’s the part I don’t like about him. Some people don’t care how a person got to be successfull, but I do. It is it unfair if one can gets away with something where others can not.

  22. joe Says:

    There is no questions about his success. But what I question is how he got there. Being deceitful is not a virtue I would equate as being intelligent. That’s the part I don’t like about him. Some people don’t care how a person got to be successfull, but I do. It is it unfair if one can gets away with something where others can not.

  23. wmb Says:

    #21/22.) I Joe I get your pint and that type of thing is inexcusable! It should in no way be acceptable for any person and/or company. Yet, not trying to defend Elon or anyone else, if we are going to hold him to this standard, and we should, there are other people and companies where we must do the same! One could easily point the finger at the VW Groups recent transgressions with diesel gate and, stealing Jaguar Land Rover is intellectual property with regard to their off-road software! There is also what shameful conduct of the Vickers, the previous owners of Rolls Royce and Bentley! While they had told Volkswagen that they had won the bid and Royals Royce and Bentley to them, they only sold the Bentley and their manufacturing plants them. Yet, the most coveted naming rights to Rolls Royce and it’s iconic grill, they sold to BMW for Pennie’s on the dollar! Let’s not forget the questionable friendships and close ties that the Fords had with Hitler during World War 2. Then there is the numerous law suits against most of the major auto companies, where they may to large sums of money, but not have to admit any wrong doing, even though the facts speak for themselves! And the list goes on. I’m not defending Elon or any of the perpetrators of some of the horrible things mention, my only point is that he is by far not the only one. Yet, if we are going to kick down his door and drag him out into the street with pitchforks and torches, we have to hold these other CEO’s, board of directors, execs, managers, companies and politicians, to the same standard for the malfeasance and alternative truths that they spend!

  24. wmb Says:

    …what I’m saying is that I’m in agreement with you, but let’s not stop with him, but go after and call them ALL out!

  25. Kit Gerhart Says:

    I just saw a Nissan TV ad saying that you can order cars from them, like Chevy, Dodge, Porsche, and MINI, but not Toyota. I hope the ad gets Nissan a lot of business. Then, Toyota might see fit to allow customer orders. Does anyone out there know if Honda takes customer orders in the U.S.?

  26. Kit Gerhart Says:

    As far as charging station layouts, they are probably the way they are to save real estate. The Tesla station near me has about 8 “superchargers,” and they are in the back of the parking lot of a Meijer store. Drive through parking, especially it would allow trucks with trailers to get by each other, would take several times as much space.

  27. Kit Gerhart Says:

    25 Never mind my question. I found on the Edmunds site that Honda, like Toyota, doesn’t do customer orders.

  28. Sean Wagner Says:

    Kit & Wim, well said regarding Elon Musk. His technological visions sometimes run away with him, as we’ve been able to observe over several years now with regards to realistical, fully autonomous driving.

    But you don’t get that inspiration while being the perfect project manager. Gwynne Shotwell famously told Elon just about exactly how much (more) money it would take to launch SpaceX’s first rocket during her job interview – but she was the interviewee.

    Still someone who’s been essential to the enterprise and very much worth listening to!

  29. Lambo2015 Says:

    21-23 Not to sound as though I am defending Elon but I believe a very common trait of highly successful people is narcissism. The inability to take the blame for his failures and the desire to remain in the spotlight is pretty common. Combine that with his grandiose ideas which may or may-not be able to develop into reality. I believe much of his criticism about being a fraud, is him just having a higher expectation than what can actually be achievable. I believe he fully thinks some of his ideas or plans are within reach (and may tweet them out) without properly walking it through. Nothing wrong with having great ideas and wanting to make them a reality. The problem comes when you have a ton of money other expect all his comments to be more than just an idea. Unlike the article I don’t think he is a fraud and I think it was highly critical to say he hasn’t accomplished anything.

    One of the things I hate most about any job is doing something that makes little sense and when I question it to be told that its just the way its been done. So I liked the fresh approach that Elon had to building a car and he or at least Tesla has developed some ideas that are being adapted like castings. However he also learned that some things are done a certain way because of years of experience has shown you that the best way. His use of robots for assembly was a perfect example of that. But technology is always changing and sometimes what didn’t work yesterday works today so pushing the envelope can be a good thing. I give him credit for that and the benefit of doubt that he isn’t a snake oil salesman. But someone with lots of great ideas that often times finds out they are not as easy to bring to reality or in the timeframe he would like for reasons he may not have thought about. I’m guessing the release of the Cybertruck has not been delayed by Elon but outside factors that have delayed it. Whether that’s financial, sourcing, raw material or some other limitations they maybe don’t want public. But I’m sure if it was totally up to Elon the truck would be on the road today.

  30. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Maybe Cybertruck is being cancelled because of the high cost of all that nickel and chromium needed for the stainless steel body.

  31. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    I am sure GM is glad they decided to go with the Escalade. It filled the very large hole left from the departure of the full sized RWD Deville.

    I also feel that Cadillac going all electric is the correct direction for them also. Their customers have money and can fly to destinations far away rather than drive to them. They also typically have enough cash to own multiple vehicles so they always have a vehicle for trips where charge times may prove problematic.

  32. Kit Gerhart Says:

    31 I agree that GM is glad they did the Escalade, because there were people wanting a “blingy” Tahoe or Suburban with a nicer interior. As far as filling the hole left by the Deville, over the years it has been filled, sort of, by the big front drive DTS, and more recently by the CT6, but that hole is wide open now. I know people who have had rear drive Devilles, and none have replaced them with Escalades. That is a completely different market.

  33. joe Says:

    23.. I do agree there are other auto companies doing the same as Elon Musk, but how about those who don’t. GM and many others for example, could never have gotten away with all the lies that Elon has told.
    Elon has had great ideas, but has been accepting all the credit and I’ve never heard him say he has great engineers. His engineers deserve praise once in a while. No one person is that smart, but he’d like you to think so. Maybe I feel this waybecause of my backgroung working for GM over 30 years.