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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
TESLA TOPS VW IN BEV SALES IN GERMANY
While Tesla lost the EV sales crown to BYD in China last month, the American EV maker is number one in BEV sales in Germany. According to Germany’s federal motor transport authority, nearly 38,500 Tesla’s have been registered in the first nine months of the year in the country, which is up 50% compared to a year ago. That’s ahead of the Volkswagen brand which registered 32,300 BEVs, down 40%. VW blames the drop on parts shortages along with rising inflation and energy costs. But even though VW slipped in Germany, last week the company said its BEV sales are up 25% so far this year globally.
SOUTH KOREA LOBBIES HARD AGAINST INFLATION REDUCTION ACT
And speaking of EV sales, South Korea and Hyundai are stepping up lobbying efforts to ease restrictions for EV tax credits in the U.S. The recent Inflation Reduction Act requires vehicles and batteries to be made in the U.S. or a qualifying country to be eligible for EV tax incentives. Bloomberg reports that the South Koreans want to delay the manufacturing requirement, since their EV plant in Georgia isn’t scheduled to start producing vehicles until 2025. They also say the subsidies should be in line with the two countries free trade agreement which treats batteries, critical materials, and cars built or assembled in South Korea the same as those made in the U.S. So, Korea is increasing pressure on the Biden Administration to make those changes. It’s unclear what will happen at this time but with Europe also lobbying against the IRA provisions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see them change.
LINCOLN DEALERS MUST PAY STEEP PRICE TO SELL EVs
Back in September, Lincoln revealed that unlike Ford it would not offer dealers options on if, or how quickly, they want to transition to selling EVs. But they’re still going to have to pony up if they want that new electric Lincoln in their showroom. The price for a Lincoln dealer to go electric is roughly $900,000, which includes installing chargers as well as for sales and service training. For comparison, Cadillac told its dealers they’d need to invest $200,000-$500,000 for EVs. But many Lincoln dealers also sell Fords, which says dealers will need to spend up to $1.2 million to make the transition to electric. We wonder if some of that investment would transfer from one brand to the other? But even at the lower amount, Cadillac said it expects to lose about 40% of its dealerships, so we wonder how many Ford could lose?
HYUNDAI REVEALS NEW GRANDEUR SEDAN
Hyundai revealed the design for the all-new version of the Grandeur, which is sold in other markets as the Azera. And as the flagship sedan in the brand’s lineup it has very stately proportions, including a coach-like rear end that looks like it took inspiration from other ultra-luxury sedans. The front end is very upright with a diamond mesh grille, while thin horizontal lighting that stretches the width of the car highlights the front and rear. Overall, we think the design follows closer to Hyundai’s EVs, but it doesn’t say what kind of propulsion system the Grandeur will have. We would be a little surprised if it’s electric, since it doesn’t follow Hyundai’s IONIQ naming structure. As for the interior, it’s highlighted by large screens that are combined into one display on the dash with a second display for HVAC controls mounted lower. And note how the gear selector was moved to the steering column to free up space in the center console. No word yet on when the new Grandeur will launch.
CAR DEALER INVENTORY PILING UP IN CHINA
As you know, chip shortages and other supply chain issues have crippled car inventory in the U.S. over the last year, leading to a lot of empty dealer lots. But over in China, the exact opposite is happening. According to the brokerage firm China Merchants Bank International, automakers have delivered more than 1 million vehicles to dealers in China in the first nine months of the year, which is a record. The problem is the economy is starting to slow which is hurting sales. Deliveries to dealers were up 33% last month but retail sales only rose 9% leading to more inventory on dealer lots. So now analysts are concerned the market will face a slowdown in 2023.
RENAULT CEO SAYS EV COST PARITY WITH ICE VEHICLES WAY OFF
Earlier this month, Sylvain Filippi, the head of Formula E team Envision Racing, said he sees EVs reaching cost parity with ICEs by 2025 or 2026. But it sounds like Renault CEO, Luca de Meo doesn’t agree with that. And it all has to do with rising material costs. Eight years ago, he expected battery prices to fall by $100 per kWh over a five year period, but he says we still haven’t seen that reduction. De Meo says, “I can come up with better battery chemistry and better power electronics, but these gains would be erased when the price of cobalt doubles in just six months” and adds about EVs and ICEs, “I do not see this parity getting close.” However, the CEO does not give a timetable for when he expects that change over to happen.
CHINA MADE VEHICLES ROCKET UP AUSTRALIAN SALES CHARTS
There was a time when most of the vehicles sold in Australia came from British or American car companies. Not anymore. Today, most of the vehicles come from Japan, Thailand and China, and in that order. Sales of Chinese vehicles are rocketing up the charts. As recently as 2018, Chinese-made vehicles ranked only 12th in Australia. Today, MG, which is owned by SAIC and Great Wall, is leading the way, along with a company called LDV, which sells utes and vans. But the rise in Chinese made vehicles also comes from Tesla, which is shipping Chinese-made Model 3s and Ys to Australia. And we want to thank our viewer Warwick Dundas in Australia for bringing this story to our attention.
FISKER SHOWS OFF ROTATING INFOTAINMENT SCREEN
A little over a year ago we showed you rotating screen technology from the supplier Mitsubishi Electric and now it looks like it’s making its way into production. Henrik Fisker showed a video of the user interface for the new Fisker Ocean on Twitter, which shows the user can flip the screen from landscape to portrait mode. We’re not 100% sure if Fisker is using Mitsubishi Electric’s system, but the supplier has a patented application on the technology, so Fisker most likely is.
The Cadillac Escalade is probably the most profitable vehicle that General Motors sells. But did you know there was a big fight in the company over whether they should make it or not? A number of people in GM thought Cadillac customers would never buy a luxury SUV and they tried to prevent GM from building it. That’s what we’ll be talking about on Autoline After Hours tomorrow afternoon. John Smith, who ran Cadillac and fought hard to bring out the Escalade will be our guest. And we’ll also get his opinions on Cadillac’s goal to go all-electric by 2030.So join John and Gary for what will be an amazing look into the inner workings of a giant car company.
But that’s the end of today’s show. Thanks for joining us and we’ll be right back here again tomorrow.
October 19th, 2022 at 12:15 pm
I could see dealerships needing to spend 200-500k to prepare for BEVs with training, some charging stations and some new equipment specific to BEVs like the lifts required to remove a battery. But I think 1.2M seems a bit much. At that rate I too could see many dealerships throwing in the towel.
This is going to be great for companies like Carvana and Car Max. Unless those dealerships decide to just stay in the used car market which is where the money is anyway.
October 19th, 2022 at 12:18 pm
I think that the legislation for giving credits for EV’s be doled out recognizing all trade agreements that are already in place. But I also have a problem with credits in the first place. I don’t see how the ‘Inflation Production Act’ (no, not a typo) can supersede already in place agreements.
October 19th, 2022 at 12:59 pm
1 – I think you are right. Even the lower volume tier Lincoln dealers must agree to invest $500,000 to be certified to sell EVs. That is the top investment amount Cadillac is mandating for their biggest dealers. I don’t know how Lincoln can justify their numbers, but seeing as Lincoln sells roughly 2 vehicles for every 3 Cadillac does, it will be difficult for any Lincoln dealer to make the math work as a sensible investment.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:03 pm
Sean, I read the linked Reuters article on China sales and something seems to be missing. They have definitely sold way more than 1 million vehicles in China so far this year. They sell more than that every month. OEMs have certainly shipped many more than 1 million vehicles to dealers so far this year. Even if the article is only talking about Chinese manufacturers, it seems really low. Maybe they are talking about only EVs?
October 19th, 2022 at 1:08 pm
Maybe Ford just wants fewer Lincoln dealers, so the remaining ones might have higher volume. The Ford-Lincoln dealer where I am in Indiana dropped Lincoln years ago, maybe because they didn’t want to service Murcurs or LSs. I don’t remember the timing.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:13 pm
Ford trying to price out dealerships by requiring huge investments in EV technology, training and charging stations will cause Ford and Lincoln dealerships to up ship right into the waiting arms of the Chinese OEM’s.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:45 pm
In my opinion, Cadillac and Lincoln are making a mistake taking such a hard line with their dealers. Cadillac ended up losing twice as many dealers as they anticipated. Most of them were small dealers in rural areas. But, that includes many popular tourist destinations. Visitors and folks traveling through that need service on their vehicle are now out of luck. Their larger dealer bodies were one of the advantages those brands had over Lexus, Infiniti, Acura, BMW, M-B, etc.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:56 pm
I really have to wonder if most CEO’s are really that disconnected from reality or is Renault CEO, Luca de Meo just that smart? Did no one think that raw material costs would go up with increased demand? All these stories we been fed of battery prices dropping, assumed a reduction in price because of scale, but also assumed raw materials would stay the same. Everyday it seems any advantage provided by scale is offset by material cost. EV’s will struggle for a long time to undercut ICE’s.. My auto insight: when they realize they cant they’ll raise the price of ICEs until they can. Already started.
October 19th, 2022 at 2:21 pm
7 There are still, and will continue to be Cadillac and Lincoln dealers closer to my Florida home than the those of European and Asian “premium” brands.
I like having dealers nearby for convenience, both in buying, and especially for warranty work and recalls, if needed. Still, I have bought a number of cars over the years without local dealers, including VW, MINI, and Porsche.
Sean, could you give us a list of number of US dealers by car brand? I’ve tried to find such a list by googling, but without much luck, except for the top ten. There are no “luxury” brands in the top ten. Polaris Ace, whatever that is, is #10.
https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/10-largest-automobile-dealers-in-the-usa/
October 20th, 2022 at 4:26 am
8 Lambo2015 – The professionals over at Benchmark Minerals who analyse and forecast mining relevant to EV battery supplies have been saying for a while that “a new mine” needs at least 7 years (!) to get up to full speed.
October 20th, 2022 at 9:15 am
10 I wont pretend to know anything about mining but 7 years seems like an awful long time to dig a hole in the ground. I would assume there is surveys that need done, and maybe core samples drilled. Permits approved and equipment purchased.
But considering how much water it takes to mine for Lithium I would guess there are legal battles to overcome along the way. Maybe if our government spend as much money fast tracking chip production and mining as they have lost sending money to Ukraine these things would be solved.
October 20th, 2022 at 10:36 am
For COVID outbreaks, China shutdown parts of Tesla Shanghai factory and suppliers. Did BYD have COVID shutdowns?
Regardless, Tesla reports operational margin (I.e. profits) of over 16%. How are everyone else including BYD profits?
Tesla has about 350 Supercharger places with 8-16 stations each. If we round the cost up from $900,000 to $1 million, that would be $350 million dollars. In contrast the existing manufacturers ‘assumed’ someone else would magically make EV charging stations … they did and per JD Powers got unreliable poor performing charging stations for the non-Tesla EV owners.
October 20th, 2022 at 11:23 am
12. Yep, Tesla remains, by far, the best for those who use EVs for highway trips, and EV commuters not having home charging. For those who do all, or nearly all of their chgarging at home, there are now a number of good EV options.
October 20th, 2022 at 3:28 pm
LDV is an abbreviation of Leyland DAF Vehicles. It was a merger of the old Dutch DAF vehicle manufacturer and the van business remnant of the once mighty Leyland. The remnants were eventually sold to Chinese interests. The Chinese vans and utes are privately imported and are selling well.