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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
CATL RE-THINKS NORTH AMERICAN BATTERY PLANTS
Ever since the passage of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, there’s been a wave of foreign automakers making EV and battery production investments in the U.S., in order to qualify for EV tax incentives. But here’s a case of the opposite happening. Reuters reports that Chinese battery maker CATL is slowing its plans to open battery factories in the U.S. and Mexico because of concerns that the requirements for the sourcing battery materials will drive costs higher. The bill requires that 50% of the minerals used in EV batteries must be sourced in North America or other approved regions, which then rises to 80% by the end of 2026. As a result, CATL has slowed the vetting process for sites to open plants in North America and its decision is now in limbo.
AUTOMAKERS TO SPEND MORE THAN $1 TRILLION ON EVs
Automakers are making huge investments into EVs. Volkswagen is spending $100 billion by 2030. Toyota is spending $70 billion. But what would the figure be if you added it all together? According to Reuters, if you group up the top automakers, they’re going to spend a collective $1.2 trillion through the end of the decade. That includes sourcing the raw materials, making batteries and building the vehicles. The investment represents plans to build around 54 million BEVs by 2030, which would be about 50% of total vehicle production. But here’s the crazy part. Reuters did a similar analysis a year ago and this $1.2 trillion figure is more than double what it came up with in 2021. There’s been a lot more EVs announced since then and cost of materials has gone up exponentially.
FEDERAL AGENCIES BOOST EV PURCHASES
The Biden Administration is making good on its promise to increase the number of electrified vehicles in the federal government’s fleet. The White House revealed that 12% of light-duty vehicles that federal agencies purchased, or more than 3,500 total, in the 2022 budget year were BEVs or plug-in hybrids. If it weren’t for supply chain issues, the White House says it would have been 20% of purchases. If you go back, in 2021, agencies bought 33,000 vehicles but only 257 were BEVs or PHEVs, or just 1% of the total. The Biden Administration wants to end government purchases of ICE vehicles by 2035. But the Government Accountability Office or GAO says federal agencies need to significantly increase the number of chargers they own to reach that goal. As of March, the agencies own and operate 4,000 chargers but the GAO estimates it needs to increase that to 100,000.
1ST EDITION GMC SIERRA EV CARRIES HEFTY PRICE TAG
GMC revealed the all-electric version of the Sierra. In terms of technology, it’s not surprisingly different from the Chevy Silverado EV, but it is more so in the looks department, especially compared to the similarity of the ICE versions. We think that’s highlighted in three main areas. The front end of the Sierra EV is much busier than the electric Siverado, the GMC doesn’t have the same bed flare as the Silverado EV, which is reminiscent of the Chevy Avalanche and the interior layout is much different. It has a large, floating center display screen mounted in portrait mode that extends down to the center console, while there’s a single digital display for the driver embedded in the dash. The Denali Edition 1, which will be the first version of the truck to launch early in 2024, is the top-of-the-line and will have the most power. It’s going to have an estimated 754 horsepower, which means it will almost certainly have a 3-motor setup, will do 0-60 in an estimated 4.5 seconds and be able to tow up to 9,500 pounds. With an expected driving range of around 400 miles or 640 kilometers the Edition 1 will have the larger battery pack, which consists of 20 modules and around 205 kWh of space. The Edition 1 will carry a price tag of over $108,500, which includes destination but before any incentives. That’s a lot of money, but there will be other versions of the truck coming in 2025 with the base model starting around $51,000.
TESLA AIMS TO BUILD 50,000 SEMI TRUCKS ANNUALLY
Tesla could soon be one of the largest manufacturers of Class 8 semi-trucks in North America. Elon Musk said that it will take about a year to ramp up production, which has already started, but that it’s “tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.” He added that the Semi would be offered outside North America as well. The truck has an estimated 500 miles of range and uses Tesla’s older 2170 battery cells, presumably keeping the newer 4680 cells available for its passenger models.
LANE MARKINGS NEED IMPROVEMENT FOR AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
Interesting white paper we came across from VSI Labs. It did a deep dive into lane markings on roads and how they affect Lane Keep Assist and autonomous driving systems. It says lane markings are highly detectable by cameras, while radar does not get a return signal from them, and lidar can be iffy depending on the type of lidar being used. High def maps can be good but the licensing costs are high, and maintenance of the maps is challenging. Machine learning algorithms can accurately detect lane markings. But they can misinterpret them on ramps and blend areas as well as misinterpret expansion joints and cracks. That’s why it’s important to have the right kind of lane markings. VSI says lane marking should be at least 6” wide, and that there should be dotted line extensions along all entrance and exit ramps. It goes into a lot more detail about what’s needed and if you’d like to learn more, we’ve got a link to the white paper in the transcript or description box.
CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT PROMISING APPLICATION FOR EVs
We’ve reported on all kinds of electric vehicles, including cars, trucks, buses, and semis. But how about electric construction equipment? The AEM, which is the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, sent us an interesting report. It says compact construction equipment, like excavators smaller than 10 metric tons, are a promising application. Since they don’t have the high electric demand of cars or trucks, they can use much smaller battery packs. Unlike diesel powered excavators there’s no idling time, they only use power on demand. So, depending on the application, the electrics can provide up to 8 hours of work time. Doosan Bobcat even has a model that eliminates all the hydraulics and uses electric cylinders and drive motors instead, which is more efficient and requires less maintenance. Quite a few companies either have, or are coming out with electric construction equipment, like Volvo Construction Equipment, JCB, Doosan, which makes the Bobcat, as well as Green Machine, Moog Construction and WhisperDrive. We also have a link to that report in the transcript or description box if you’d like to learn more.
But that’s it for today, thanks for watching and have a great weekend.
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Comments (26)
October 21st, 2022 at 12:24 pm
Small construction equipment is an interesting application for EVs, and makes sense. There have been EV fork lifts for 60 years, that I know of, using “quick change” lead-acid batteries. If a small Bobcat could do a day’s work on one charge, and charge overnight for the next day, that would be a great application. I don’t know what an “electric cylinder” is, but the functions of a Bobcat could all be run by individual electric motors.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:28 pm
Not sure why Homeland Security bothered adding any EVs to their fleet. They’re not allowed to do their jobs as it is already.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:30 pm
No… My bad. That’s Border Patrol I’m thinking of. Not Homeland Security.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:48 pm
The CATL announcement is a negotiating ploy intended to get the new law changed, or amended. If they want their business to grow they will build those plants in the US. They know this and will capitulate.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:54 pm
Yea lots are building EV construction equipment like Dewalt that had their commercial mower catch fire at the Expo of all places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxhFbKqoGmU
October 21st, 2022 at 12:59 pm
Surprised about electric construction equipment? Why? I was first introduced to this over 40 years ago. Back then, it was primarily for indoor use in large warehouses and construction projects, but often was used outdoors too. Lots of development on this sort of equipment in the last couple decades. Never heard of an electric cylinder, though. That’s intriguing.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:08 pm
CATL may have the right plan as everything could change in two years. Just as everyone is setting up US manufacturing the EV incentives could go away. I’d like to see us remain independent of foreign supply chains but who knows what will happen.
As for the Government buying EVs I would bet money they will &$(*@ that up too. They will pass some silly mandate without any consideration for a charging structure and leave thousands of government vehicles sitting idle with no place to charge. Then rush to pass something and pay 4 times what it should cost to add the charging stations they needed before buying the vehicles. Seems about right.
The GMC looks to be a single body no parting line for the bed. So will it have a fold down rear seat and window like the old Avalanche? It was hard to tell in the quick video but it looks like it will.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:10 pm
An “electric cylinder”; wouldn’t that just be an electric motor driven ram via screw, through geared servo?
October 21st, 2022 at 1:13 pm
@3 I wish you would keep your political nonsense off this board. Why nonsense? The number of apprehensions has gone up. That is a good development, or would you like to see the number of apprehensions down? How many illegals cross without being arrested nobody knows. The border is as open nowadays as it used to be. Only 53 miles of border wall have been built along a 2,000 miles long border between 2017 and 2021. Starting to get controls on private land straddling the U.S./Mexican border has never started. Not before 2017, not between 2017 and 2021 and not now.
Illegals entering the country has been going on for decades and no administration has taken any relevant action to reduce illegal crossings. Above and beyond that the estimates are that 80% of illegals arrive in the country through an airport. Which is obvious since you can buy a flight ticket from Central American cities to a U.S. airport for $400 and the coyote route costs thousands and is uncomfortable and risky. All somebody needs is to get a tourist visa for the U.S., which is easy. And the U.S. is the only country of the 58 I have travelled to which does not have an official passport control at airport exits. So once a foreigner enters the U.S. at an airport we do not know whether that person has left within the three months’ window or not.
The above has been going on for decades and no government has taken action. So again, please spare us your political bs and try to understand what has actually been going on.
Thank you in advance and have a great weekend.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:16 pm
Tesla should really consider a front bumper for their Semi. Elon should go walk a truck stop and he will quickly realize why.
Lane markings are really going to eat into the road commissions budgets. The emphasis needs to be there, but I doubt if their budgets reflect the new need. Which is also why autonomus driving is a long way from being level 5 in the Midwest and northern states. Any snow and the lines are gone. Even when there isnt snow the white chalky salt residue makes the white lines almost opaque.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:33 pm
9 I dont think he was spewing any political nonsense. Actual facts. No one gets as butt hurt as you about any comments related to this failing administration. To say that no administartion has taken any actions to reduce crossings tells me you were asleep the last 4 years. Maybe you should do some reading and see what’s really going on yourself. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/09/whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-7-charts/
Crossing in Yuma alone increased from 8804 in 2020 to 114,488 in 2021. So yea I would hope apprehensions are up. Cause they would need to be up 300% to stay in line with the increase in crossings.
October 21st, 2022 at 1:49 pm
1,8 Here are electric cylinders. I hadn’t heard of them, but they exist.
https://ph.parker.com/us/en/electric-cylinders
October 21st, 2022 at 2:05 pm
Electric cylinders are electro-mechanical actuators that replace hydraulic cylinders. Here’s a demo video of an all-electric Volvo excavator: https://youtu.be/kV1T5tEgZPA
October 21st, 2022 at 2:06 pm
7 NASA has been buying EVs for years, or decades. They have mainly been used to go short distances on NASA property, golf carts, but also some “golf cart plus” things that were popular at Celebration a few years ago. I suspect they will now get more serious EVs now for general use. Maybe Elon will give them a good deal on Teslas, since NASA does a lot of business with SpaceX. Charging will not be a problem. There is plenty of power available at KSC.
October 21st, 2022 at 2:17 pm
how much load can the tesla carry and what is its cost?
October 21st, 2022 at 2:49 pm
I am surprised to hear that the Semi uses the older variety of battery cells. I thought Elon previously said that the delay in launching the CyberTruck and the Semi was that they had to wait for volume production of the new cells, which were key to achieving their power and range targets for those vehicles.
In any case, his sales estimates for the Semi seem awfully pie in the sky. Commercial fleet customers won’t be as easy to win over as individual consumers. He may find more eager customers in Europe than here. The 500 mile range is still a no-go for long haul trucking. The lack of Megachargers is also a problem. So, short haul trucking with depot charging at night is the market for the Semi as it exists today.
October 21st, 2022 at 2:51 pm
Tesla bragging again. Most likely, like usual, not able to keep it’s prediction. Anyhow, it serve them a way to manipulate it’s stock like they do often.
October 21st, 2022 at 2:57 pm
15 Its supposed to be able to carry 3500 lbs and be able to tow 14,000 lbs. They said starting price was going to be $39,999 but that was back in 2019. Tesla has hiked the price of its other models and would expect the same goes for Cybertruck and I’ll be surprised if you can ever buy one for less than $49,999 and thats a base model. Still half the price of the GMC but thats also the 1st Edition and if GMC bases start at $51 they’ll all be close in price.
October 21st, 2022 at 3:05 pm
I won’t use any names, but I see somebody getting upset at someone for writing “political nonsense” and yet that someone’s response is nothing but political. I find that funny.
October 21st, 2022 at 3:07 pm
16 Absolutely! Individual customers can buy with emotion where the commercial buyers will need to have an ROI and justify any purchase. I think an Electric semi has its place and will make sense for certain applications. But installing a charging infrastructure on top of the truck purchase will be the biggest hurdle. They should be sold as a package deal to make the comparison easy. Also on the commercial side hopefully those batteries have longevity as well as a large capacity for cycles. Rather than many vehicles that might only need charged up once or twice a week these will likely see daily use and charge every day. Will be interesting for sure.
October 21st, 2022 at 3:46 pm
15,18 I wasn’t sure if johno’s question was about the semi, or Cybertruck. The Cybertruck, and other BEV pickups will be able to tow a lot, but not very far on a charge. Then, unless they are set up to use two or more chargers at once, the charge time will be long. They will be great for local construction jobs, like to take a back hoe or Bobcat to and from a job site 30 miles away, but to tow an RV on a long trip, forget it.
October 21st, 2022 at 3:52 pm
16 I wondered the reason for the 2170 cells too. Maybe they are just more available. The 4680 cells have higher energy density, as installed, but with the truck, maybe they can have almost unlimited space for batteries, by stacking them higher, etc. Also, maybe there are “issues” with cooling the big cells in huge packs, that we aren’t being told about, so the the 2170s work better.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:14 am
I like the styling on the Silverado EV but I think I would give the nod to the GMC Sierra EV if I needed to make a choice. But in any case it would have to be after the Launch Edition, which I think they’re a little too proud of, price wise.
October 24th, 2022 at 8:52 am
21 Oh I suppose he could have meant the semi.It would pretty useless unless it can tow a GVW of 82,000lbs. I’m with you though that these EV trucks have to be marketed toward local trucking companies. Which is still a huge market but to think they can replace a OTR long distance truck I doubt it. For them time is money which is why truck stops have the ability to refill the trucks tanks on both sides at the same time. They dont want to be there any longer than they need to so a couple hours to recharge will be a deal breaker. But like you said there are plenty of applications they can be useful. The city of tomorrow could be much different without the noisy cars and trucks.
October 24th, 2022 at 10:56 am
23 I just saw an ad on twitter showing the Sierra EV towing what looked like a big Airstream trailer. No one should advertise this type of use for an EV pickup. People won’t want to stop an hour to charge every hundred miles, when pulling their big trailers.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:40 pm
25) I would be all in for trading my RAM 2500 for an EV truck if it weren’t for the towing fact you mentioned. 95% of my driving (with dismal gas mileage) is short trips within 10 miles from home. About once a month, I fill up for $70-$125, depending on the current price. Then there are those roughly 4x per year that I need to be able to tow my travel trailer, and even my low ICE mileage drops in half. I don’t enjoy those stops to fill up several times a trip, but worse would be waiting for an EV truck to charge multiple times. If my trailer had range-extender batteries between the frame rails, or even a range extending backup battery pack in the bed of the truck so I could reach my destination in one charge, I would be interested. I know the weight would be more to tow, and lifting a battery pack into the bed may be difficult, but once at the RV park, there are multiple 30A & 50A outlets I could plug into to recharge before going home. I’m sure these ideas are feasible, and probably in the works, but travel trailers are expensive enough, I’d hate to see the price tag on these battery accessories that I would need.