AD #1862 – Nissan Takes Over Mitsubishi, GM Details New 10-Speed Transmission, Sales Could Top 20 Million in 2018
May 12th, 2016 at 11:51am
Runtime: 7:12
To watch this episode on YouTube click here.
- Analyst Predicts 20 Million SAAR in 2018
- Nissan Takes Majority Stake in Mitsubishi
- Make Vehicles Lighter by Trimming Off the Edges
- GM Details New 10-Speed Transmission
- Man Drives Toyota Tundra a Million Miles
- Who’s Number One?
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On today’s show… in a stunning move, Nissan announced its taking over Mitsubishi, GM introduces a new transmission that shifts faster than a Porsche PDK and car sales in the American market could set new records for several years to come. All that and more coming right up on Autoline Daily.
This is Autoline Daily for May 12th, 2016.
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!
Here’s a story that could turn the automotive industry on its head. New car sales in the American market have been growing for nearly 6 years. That’s the longest post-recession recovery in history. And that has Wall Street worrying that car sales are bound to start dropping sometime soon. But not everyone on Wall Street. John Murphy, the senior auto analyst at Merrill Lynch, has this prediction. (SOT: predicts car sales will hit 19 million vehicles in 2017 and says we could see a 20 million SAAR in 2018.) Speaking on an upcoming episode of Autoline This Week, Murphy says that the age of the fleet shows there is still considerable pent-up demand for new cars. The average car today is over 11 years old. If Murphy is right, that means automakers, suppliers and dealers can enjoy nearly three more years of record sales.
NISSAN SCOOPS UP MITSUBISHI
OK, now let’s move over to Japan. Nissan dropped a bombshell this morning, announcing it is taking over control of Mitsubishi. Nissan is spending just over $2 billion to buy 34% of Mitsubishi Motors. Under Japanese law, once a stockholder takes control of 33% of a company’s stock it gets effective control of the company. The move adds more than 2 million vehicles to the Renault-Nissan alliance, bringing the group’s total manufacturing scale to over 7 million vehicles.
We’ll be back in a moment with a story on how automakers can make cars lighter just by bending the steel differently.
HEMMING & HAWING
Automakers and suppliers face tough regulations to improve fuel efficiency and lower emissions. Making cars lighter can pay big dividends and every gram counts. Here’s a great example we just ran across. A research project from the Auto/Steel Partnership found a new way to hem the steel on doors, hoods and trunk lids. Hemming refers to crimping the edges of steel panels so they don’t have sharp edges. Nothing new there, they’ve been doing that for decades. The difference here is using advanced high strength steel, what they call AHSS, that can be used in very thin gauges. Researchers were able to successfully hem the thin gauge steel without any rips or tears, resulting in a 30% weight savings.
REMEMBER WHEN 10-SPEEDS WERE BIKES?
It doesn’t seem long ago that GM and Ford announced a partnership to develop 9- and 10-speed transmissions and now we’re starting to see the fruits of that labor. Ford recently announced a 10-speed automatic transmission will go in the new Raptor and select F-150 models and now it’s GM’s turn. The automaker will first use the trans in the Camaro ZL1, which it claims shifts faster than a Porsche PDK transmission. We think it’s also safe to say that the new 10-speed will make its way into GM’s trucks and SUVs as well. That will push GM and Ford ahead of the RAM pickup, which has had a fuel economy advantage thanks to its 8-speed.
THAT TUNDRA IS A MILLIONAIRE
I’ve heard plenty of stories about million mile vehicles, but one loyal Toyota owner just got there in pretty impressive fashion. Victor Sheppard recently reached that milestone in his 2007 Tundra and for those of you who don’t want to do the math, that’s a whopping average of 125,000 miles a year. Maybe even more impressive, Sheppard’s truck still has the original engine, transmission and paint job. Toyota was so impressed that it traded Sheppard for a brand-new Tundra just so it could study his old one.
Coming up next, John will be here with one of his Autoline Insights about who’s the biggest car company in the world.
WHO’S #1?
Who’s the Number One car company in the world? There’s big bragging rights that go with selling more vehicles than anyone else. To get it all sorted out I combed through the most recent annual reports of Toyota, Volkswagen and General Motors. That’s where they have to declare their official sales. And at first glance it looks pretty simple. Toyota says it sold 10.1 million vehicles, VW says it sold 10 million and GM says it sold 9.8 million. But now it gets a little more complicated. Toyota and Volkswagen sell big semi trucks while GM doesn’t sell any. So if you you want more of an apples to apples comparison and take big trucks out of the total, then Toyota sold 9.1 million vehicles, VW sold 9.3 million, and GM sold 9.8 million. But wait, we still need to make another adjustment. Toyota’s total doesn’t include the minicars that it sells in Japan. If you add them in, then Toyota sold 9.833 million, just behind General Motors at 9.840 million. So as you can see this can get pretty complicated. So the next time one of these car companies brags that it’s number one in the world, we need to ask them, “How are you counting those sales?”
| Top 3 Global OEMs | |
|---|---|
| 1. Toyota | 10.1 Million |
| 2. VW AG | 10.0 Million |
| 3. GM | 9.8 Million |
| Not Counting Semi Trucks | |
|---|---|
| 1. GM | 9.8 Million |
| 2. VW AG | 9.3 Million |
| 3. Toyota | 9.1 Million |
| Counting Mini Cars | |
|---|---|
| 1. GM | 9.840 Million |
| 2. Toyota | 9.833 Million |
| 3. VW AG | 9.374 Million |
Before we go I invite you to tune in to Autoline After Hours later this afternoon at 3PM eastern time. We’re going to have a deep dive into the new Honda Ridgeline truck. There’s a lot to learn about how Honda completely revamped that truck and there’s a lot of those details in that show. So join me and Gary Vasilash for some of the best insights as to what’s going on in the automotive industry.
And with that we wrap up today’s show, thanks for watching and join us again tomorrow.
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Comments (26)
May 12th, 2016 at 12:07 pm
The million mile Tundra was mostly all highway miles, my 400k is mostly all city and a few jaunts on the local congested freeways, I have taken a lot more punishment than that fellow. Besides we all know V8′s have a longer life than others, since the motor has less stress than a small displacement one.
May 12th, 2016 at 12:13 pm
The whole number one thing has me puzzled, with all the joint ownership of many brands. Even though GM and VW sometimes only own 10-20% of some of their Chinese partners, they claim every unit from these partners as their total. When GM & Toyota had the NUMMI joint venture, did GM claim all the Corollas as well as the Nova/Prizm/Vibes?
May 12th, 2016 at 12:16 pm
Sure could use the GM, Toyota, and VW metrics as a table.
May 12th, 2016 at 12:35 pm
@Bob Wilson – The GM, Toyota and VW sales charts have been added to the script.
May 12th, 2016 at 12:53 pm
It looks like my 2016 Corvette will soon be obsolete, with only an 8-speed transmission.
May 12th, 2016 at 12:53 pm
I love the 24 hour news cycle. Yesterday you were telling us how sales were softening and production was being curtailed at suppliers and sales would probably drop. Today you have a stock tout from Wall Street telling us production will hit 20 million units in the next couple of years. Which is it? Does anyone really know, probably not.
Will that new 10 speed transmission make it into the Corvette with that fast shifting?
May 12th, 2016 at 12:55 pm
John,
On the new 10 speed transmissions for the GM trucks and SUV’s, do you think there will be an extra change for them? Any thought on how much mileage improvement will be realized?
May 12th, 2016 at 1:01 pm
What about other metrics of leadership – revenue, margin, ROI, capacity utilization, and labor efficiency? There are more metrics. The sales metric has some flaws and can be manipulated at the expense of the other metrics.
May 12th, 2016 at 1:31 pm
Now that 10 speed transmissions are staring to come out of the Ford/GM joint venture and appear in pick ups how soon will it be before the 9 speed fwd come out ?
I’m thinking of an Escape or Equinox in the fall of 2017. Have a 2013 Escape with 2.0L and would like a little better gas mileage.
May 12th, 2016 at 1:32 pm
What advantages does a 9 or 10 gear transmission have over a CVT transmission? Which has more Torque? Which delivers better fuel economy?
May 12th, 2016 at 1:42 pm
10 So far, there don’t seem to be CVT’s that handle the torque and power of large engines. Some ~300 hp V-6′s seem to be the largest engines using CVT’s.
May 12th, 2016 at 1:45 pm
I’ve checked a few places, and it looks like Corvette may not be part of the “first wave” for the 10-speed with GM. That kind of makes sense, because of the need to build the transmission into a transaxle for Corvette, as the only application.
May 12th, 2016 at 1:48 pm
Interesting that the article on the GM 10-speed brags about the “quickness” of the shifting. Any automatic transmission can be programmed to shift fast by slamming on the clutch rather than modulating it on gradually/smoothly, it just a matter of how harsh of a shift you want to endure. Also, the more speeds you have, the smaller the ratio step size, so torque managing the shift actually gets easier, allowing shorter slip times and quicker shifts.
The article also mentions using “ultra-low viscosity transmission fluid”. So is GM going to something beyond Dexron VI?
May 12th, 2016 at 1:50 pm
Who remembers the 2-Speed Ford O Matics and the 2 Speed Power Glides? And the Ford C4 then C6 and the GM Turbo 350 and 400?
May 12th, 2016 at 1:58 pm
14 I remember all of them, and the Chrysler PowerFlite, the company’s first real automatic. My parents’ 1955 Dodge had one.
May 12th, 2016 at 2:08 pm
I read that Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd will be changing its name to Subaru Corp. to improve it’s corporate image. Well, It is about time! Subaru is the cash cow when you look at Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd financials.
Too Bad, Subaru did not purchase a majority stake in Mitubishi ahead of Nissan. Nissan got a bargain and all that additional manufacturing capacity worldwide.
I also understand that Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd (AKA: Subaru Corp.) makes everything from industrial products to helicopters. I guest Honda and the Honda Jet might have to make room for the Subaru Helicopter in the near future at an airport near you. I wonder if Subaru has humanoid robot in it’s future?
May 12th, 2016 at 2:09 pm
The million mile Tundra still has two million to go before matching Irv Gordon’s three million mile 1966 Volvo P1800 with all original mechanicals. That’s a lot of seat time.
May 12th, 2016 at 2:12 pm
Well, since Toyota traded it with the guy they could tear it apart and see why it lasted so long, one million is all is gonna be able to do. They should put it back together and give it to somone else who will keep on truckin’ with it.
May 12th, 2016 at 2:14 pm
Merrill Lynch should not let this analyst talk to the press. Regardless of the factors he cites, with the cost of new vehicles and the financing being stretched to unheard of terms, we won’t see a SAAR north of 18 million. Sales will remain strong for the next several years, but I don’t see them growing past the point they are at now. Used Car sales will remain strong as well, since they provide a good value proposition for income-challenged Americans.
May 12th, 2016 at 2:15 pm
I must say I really like the look of the front grill and lower fascia of the new Honda Ridgeline. I must prefer the lower fascia of the Ridgeline to the lower fascia on the new Pilot. I hope Honda might consider adapting the lower fascia / black plastic bumper from the Ridgeline onto the Pilot with one exception. The Pilot would keep the round fog lights and not the square ones of the Ridgeline.
May 12th, 2016 at 2:30 pm
When is Subaru going to begin production of the Viziv? I thought that the Viziv would already have a production start date by now. Isn’t it the replacement for the Tribeca? My only suggestion to Subaru is that they make it big enough to compete toe to toe with the Honda Pilot and Toyota Highlander. They should also forget about the sliding doors that are shown on several of the Viziv concepts. The front and rear look great. Subaru can borrow a page out of the Hyundai playbook and make a Viziv and a smaller Viziv Sport similar to the Santa Fe and Santa Fe Sport.
May 12th, 2016 at 3:37 pm
21 The Viziv concept is smaller than a Forester. Wouldn’t it be more of a next generation Crosstrek, or something like that?
May 12th, 2016 at 4:08 pm
#14
Ah, but who can forget the magnificent Flash-O-Matic Shift Command on the Ramblers?
May 12th, 2016 at 4:36 pm
I remember Flash-O-Matic. I think it was the Borg Warner unit used by a number of car companies around the world.
May 12th, 2016 at 11:03 pm
With its unit body and Pilot roots, I’ll be very interested in seeing the crash test results on the Ridgeline vs the competition…
May 16th, 2016 at 9:06 am
#8 I’m with Drew. Largest manufacturer doesn’t mean much anyway. I mean Takata is probably the largest airbag manufacturer right now but they are probably building more for free than they are selling.
So who really cares if you sell 15 Million cars if you don’t turn a profit?