AD #3234 – Mexico Ramps Up Fight with U.S.; EV Sales Outperform Total Market; Volkswagen ID BUZZ Reveal Coming Soon

January 7th, 2022 at 11:59am

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Listen to “AD #3234 – Mexico Ramps Up Fight with U.S.; EV Sales Outperform Total Market; Volkswagen ID BUZZ Reveal Coming Soon” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 8:37

0:07 Mexico Ramps Up Fight With the U.S.
0:57 EV Sales Outperform Total Market
1:47 ID BUZZ Reveal Coming in March
2:29 Volvo Readies Highway Assist System
3:20 BMW Aims to Improve In-Vehicle Entertainment
4:00 Hyundai Teams to Develop Virtual Manufacturing Plant
5:35 Magna Helps Electrify Pickups & LCVs
6:19 You Said It!

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32 Comments to “AD #3234 – Mexico Ramps Up Fight with U.S.; EV Sales Outperform Total Market; Volkswagen ID BUZZ Reveal Coming Soon”

  1. Rey Says:

    Did GMs EVs outperform its ICE sales? Maybe in US President Joe Bidens eyes and GMs Mary Barras ears.

  2. Lambo2015 Says:

    Although an 84% increase in electrified vehicles sounds impressive I would prefer to see the change in percent of US sales. If last year was 5% and now its 9.4% that increase of 4.4% puts it in better perspective. Still impressive but 84% can be misleading when your talking about such a small percent of total sales.

  3. Kit Gerhart Says:

    It’s not surprising that sales of “electrified” vehicle are increasing a lot, with Toyota now having hybrid versions of most of their mainstream vehicles, including RAV4, Highlander, Camry, and Corolla. All Sienna vans are hybrid, starting with the 2021 model year.

  4. XA351GT Says:

    Lambo, I agree with you. % are very deceptive. Ask yourself which you would rather have selling 1000 when the previous you sold 900 or selling 20 after selling 10 the previous year, Because one is a 10% gain while the other 100% gain but you sold very much less in units. That is why I’d rather people use units to measure performance over %.

  5. Lambo2015 Says:

    The VW ID is fresh take at the all too common SUV look. Which is impressive considering it has retro heritage. Too bad it wont be a people car and will likely be in the 50K price range.
    Really wish a manufacturer would offer a good reliable EV without all the frills.

    I cant see the BMW screen ever being a reality. If for any reason a driver needs to take over the retracting of that screen would have to be pretty fast.

  6. Doug Says:

    Mobility pod comment – I remember trying to stand while riding in a bus when I was a kid. Starting, stopping, dips in the pavement, and turning corners required hanging on, or you’d fall. I think pods will be the same. People need to be seated while the vehicle is in motion. This will impact how a pod is laid out.

  7. Kevin A Says:

    Sean, A lot of companies are working on E-delivery vans but what about E-school buses? Because a lot of buses are government subsidized, wouldn’t that be an attractive market since it is steady inpoor economic times? Is the Brightdrop van large enough to be a base for a school bus or is it likely that existing bus companies (Lion, New Flyer, Thomas, Bluebird) will dominate that business. Thomas is already part of Daimler, but the others seem to be independent so far.

  8. Kit Gerhart Says:

    7 Yeah, I’d think school buses would be a great EV application. They are generally only used during the morning and afternoon, and could charge overnight, and even charge during the “school day” if range was marginal. Also, it’s not that great for kids to get a big whiff of diesel smoke at the bus stop.

  9. WineGeek Says:

    Gee, I don’t remember Mexico complaining when they got all the jobs from Detroit. Now with the shoe partially on the other foot they are complaining. I don’t feel bad about this dispute, I hope that the US doesn’t give in.

  10. Kit Gerhart Says:

    9 The whole thing is moot, because the incentive for union-made vehicles has zero chance of passing in the senate.

  11. Kit Gerhart Says:

    7,8 It looks like Thomas, for one, is making electric school buses. We don’t hear much about it, though.

  12. Dave Says:

    What about electric school buses that’s a done deal lots of competition Lion especially makes 3 different models of electric school buses?? that’s a big snore Yes I hear crickets

  13. DanaPointJohn Says:

    #3: Add-in the Venza, which is only offered as a hybrid. A Supra EV? The performance possibilities are intriguing!

  14. Kit Gerhart Says:

    13 Yeah, Venza, and there are several Lexus hybrids.

  15. Bob Wilson Says:

    Seeing Tesla has a significant backlog. Traditional makers discovered demand for EVs is very high. Finding EV drivetrains can be ‘catalog’ ordered. … small wonder EV sales have ballooned to their manufacturing limit.

    Bob Lutz once claimed GM had a ‘moat’ in their ICE vehicles. They could just add a couple of hundred dollars to each ICE pickup to sustain EV manufacturing. Then GM released the fire-hazard ‘Prius’ of EVs while Tesla continued to leave GM products at each light. Who knew the GM ‘moat’ was in front of them.

  16. wmb Says:

    #9 & 10.) If Mexico wants to argue the details of the trade deal (percentages of content, etc. [even with that, unless it changed after they agreed on the deal, they should have checked on this before the sided the agreement]), that is one thing. But if a sovereign country wants to add incentives to things built in their nation, what right does another country have to complain? They can do the same in their country. The problem is, what they build they, for the most part export to the US! So, if the US incentivize home ground product, the US buying public will look to purchase those products. OEMs will want to build vehicles where people will buy them. Th is means they may move investment back to the US. But that US a BUSINESS decisions! If a business decides that it’s better to build locally and not abroad, for whatever reason, that is their decision. It has NO impact on any political deal better to countries, period! It would like the state of Michigan suing the state of Atlanta, because they are giving incentives to its residents to purchase locally produced ginger ale and one of the Michigan’s greatest exports to and Altanta is Vernor’s ginger ale! Even if the two states have an agreement on trade, this does not keep Atlanta from encouraging the purchase of Locally purchase items.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 Tesla does not have a big backlog, at least for some models, according to their web site. They show delivery for ordered Model 3s as March, 2022.

  18. Kit Gerhart Says:

    16 I don’t know all of the details of NAFTA 2.0, but I suspect it is in violation of the agreement for the US to incentivize purchase of vehicles made in the US with union labor. The details of the “regional content” dispute could get very complicated.

  19. Sean Wagner Says:

    16 Wouldn’t that run afoul of the Commerce Clause*? One foundational part of EU trade is that such locally preferential treatment is forbidden, and the relevant courts do enforce it.

    People still choose local beers.

    18 And that’s why a FTA includes provisions for arbitration panels to rule on inevitably arising disputes.

    If rules about various domestic content and incentives were written into the contract as they sensibly might, Mexico is perfectly within its rights to ask for resolution from such a panel.

    One presumes the contracting parties had some idea of what they co-signed. There’s always the (provided for) option to anul the treaty.

    *See the “Dormant Commerce Clause”

    17 Kit – Tesla of course has practically no inventory, as in two days’ worth or close to none at the end of a quarter.

    There’s nothing [0] currently available here. And I’m astonished at the used ones’ hefty prices.

    Though I bet the inventory of Full Self-Driving software is piling up now that the price goes to $12K. Where to put all those bits and bytes? /s

  20. Sean Wagner Says:

    Tesla wait times for Model 3s in Switzerland stretch to May/June.

  21. Kit Gerhart Says:

    20 The British Tesla site I linked in #17, shows estimated delivery of March for all Models 3. The US site shows February 2022 for the Model 3 Performance, and later for the base and long range.

    I don’t know that I believe any of it, but don’t plan to order one to find out. What you see in Switzerland sounds more likely.

  22. Lambo2015 Says:

    15,21 Hey the reality is EVs are seeing some demand and it appears to exceed production capability at least for Tesla for the time being. The real question is where will it peek? I think we all know that new car buyers are not 100% looking for EVs. So maybe 10-15% of buyers actually want an EV and until production can support that demand there will be a backlog.
    My concern would be everyone launching new EVs and adding capability and find out in a few years that demand flattens out 20% and they prepared for 60%. For now Tesla seems to be preparing to meet demand and cut wait times down to weeks rather than months but when the scale tips and they have way more production than they need is when things will get interesting.
    Lets not forget that 20% of California EV buyers went back to an ICE.

  23. Kit Gerhart Says:

    22 According to Tesla’s US web site, the wait time for a Model 3 Performance is only a month. The wait time for my Corvette was 13 months.

    I suspect most of the 20% of Californians who went back to ICE from EV live in apartments without charging, and weren’t prepared for the reality of having to depend on public charging. I’m just guessing, though. Does anyone have data on that?

  24. Sean Wagner Says:

    There’s really no danger of misjudging on the upside, given battery supply constraints.

    Back of the envelope, even ten very big cell-producing factories (@25GWh & 70kWh average pack, though VW is aiming for 40GWh eventually) could maybe supply a fifth of total US light vehicle demand.

    And that’s not happening tomorrow.

  25. Kit Gerhart Says:

    These EVs are using a lot of battery. One EV uses the equivalent of about 7,000 smart phone batteries.

  26. Lambo2015 Says:

    I found this article that states only 1 in 5 of owners that did switched back to ICEs did it over charging. Only 30% had access to a level 2 charger. Using a level 1 (120V) outlet charger only adds 3 miles per hour of charging to the Mach-e. So 12 hours only gets you 36 miles. That alone would scare me off.,or%20so%20many%20studies%20have%20found%20thus%20far.

  27. Lambo2015 Says:

    23 Found an article that stated that out of those 20% of EV buyers that went back to ICE only 1 in 5 did it over charging woes. Which I find hard to believe because in that same article 70% did not have access to a level 2 charger (240V) So not sure about Tesla but the Mach-e only adds 3 miles of range per hour using a level 1 (120V) outlet. So after charging my Ev for 12 hours and only getting 36 miles of range or = 1.5 gallons of gas I wouldn’t be happy.

  28. Bob Wilson Says:

    I appreciate the effort for the after hours program but it was weak. Let me suggest contacting InSideEV, PlugShare, and ChargePoint in the future for those living and working in the EV charging space.

    My strongest recommendation is require each dealer selling ‘n’ EVs to have a 24×7, fast DC charger. No charger, no allotment. Tie charger support to each EV sold. This becomes the cost-sharing supporting chargers for EV growth.

    Finally (for now) support EV charging at parking lot light poles! Just make NEMA outlets at the base of the power poles and let EV owners use their own EVSE. Similar rule for parking garages.

  29. Sean Wagner Says:

    Fun fact: presently, the yearly production of conventional lead-acid starter batteries is similar in total capacity to that of all EVs. Which is why CATL is building a gigantic new line for LiFe batteries.

    Also, and pertaining to the charging issue, I’ve been wondering where the masses of urban buyers of Chinese Wuling minicars plug in – it seems that garages that double as shelters are mandatory in apartment buildings, according to someone with first-hand knowledge.

    I’d welcome some further input and more details on the matter, though.

  30. Lambo2015 Says:

    23 I did some checking and it was surprising that of that 20% that went back to ICEs only 1 in 5 said they went back due to charging. However 70% did not have a level 2 at home charger so many were trying to charge using 120V. Which for vehicles like Mach-e you only get 3 miles of range per hour of level 1 charging. So 12 hours later you got 36 miles. That would prevent me from owning an EV.

  31. Kit Gerhart Says:

    30 Interesting. Level 1 charging would work for a commuter car for many, but I’m not surprised that 70% would go back to a gas car, if their EV was an only car, and they had only level 1 charging.

  32. Alex Carazan Says:

    EV Sales were only 2.89% of sales in 2021. Still under 3%. The market keeps pushing EV’s on consumers that do NOT want them. And for good reasons: 1) High price, 2) Lower range, 3) Low charge availability, 4) Long charge times, 5) Range reduction in hot and cold weather, 6) Dealing with charge cord, 7) High cost to charge on high speed chargers, 8) High cost of fast chargers, 9) Long trips not practical, 10) Battery fires, 11) Battery life and replacement costs, 12) Rare earth minerals are not sustainable and human rights abuses in mining, 13) Electricity generation is not green, 14) Battery life and replacement cost is huge, etc.

    Many EV nameplates announced in USA to launch in next 24 months. Does this mean they will get large sales? No! Let’s watch and see how rational the consumers are. In the USA there is no EV mandate and US consumers will not be forced to buy them.

    Tesla (luxury brand) enjoys about 70% market share today and they do not produce 1 internal combustion engine. Do we think GREEN luxury buyers who think EV’s are green will want to buy vehicles from auto makers that produce 97% ICE vehicles?

    Let’s see what happens. Enjoy the show!