AD #3266 – Look for Massive EV Exports from China; Could VW Spin Off Porsche?; Tech Details on Ford’s Ranger Raptor

February 22nd, 2022 at 11:52am

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Listen to “AD #3266 – Look for Massive EV Exports from China; Could VW Spin Off Porsche?; Tech Details on Ford's Ranger Raptor” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 10:39

0:07 Rumor Mill Says VW Will Spin Off Porsche
0:37 Is Porsche a Safer Bet Than VW?
1:22 GM Stumbles on Way to the App Store
2:09 U.S. Readies Raw Materials Strategy
3:14 Mercedes’ Strategy to Transition to EVs
4:16 More Details on Ford’s Ranger Raptor
5:43 Opel Launches R&D Effort Into Lighting
7:01 Look for Massive EV Exports from China
8:20 Hyundai’s Sales Collapse in China
9:00 Faraday Future Finally Getting Ready to Make EVs

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25 Comments to “AD #3266 – Look for Massive EV Exports from China; Could VW Spin Off Porsche?; Tech Details on Ford’s Ranger Raptor”

  1. Lambo2015 Says:

    Todays show highlights the importance of balancing ICE and EV models with demand. As more and more manufacturers release new EVs faster than demand increases they will struggle to be profitable as that slice of the pie gets split up over more models than is needed.

    MB is doing the right thing and changing over existing plants as demand requires. No need for a new plant to build an EV.

  2. Lambo2015 Says:

    As the US continues to play Chess (and Lose) to the Chinese hopefully they are looking beyond just EV batteries. Once we have created enough material independence for batteries it will be something else. They (the Chinese) have been very good at strategically investing in products they can monopolize. Yet when they throw big money around we stupidly sell and wonder how this happens time and time again.

  3. Norm T Says:

    What do you think GM is doing with Detroit-Hamtramac? Orion?

  4. wmb Says:

    While the announcement of mining here may sound like welcome news, the problem comes with the cost of labor. If the cost is cheaper to do business in China, then the business will still go to Asia!

  5. BobK Says:

    @4, You are correct in your high cost outcome, but the real cost is not just the cost of labor, it also the significant cost and time delay of permitting in the US.

  6. ChuckGrenci Says:

    Isn’t Canada a big player in nickel mining; is that part of our solution?

  7. Drew Says:

    Please accept my apologies for now posting comments related to yesterday’s program, which were related to Wall Street speculation from Friday… Ford EV vs. ICE operations. Much of yesterday’s discussion focused on Farley’s comments about the difference between EV and ICE operations… the work involved, the speed of change, etc. At the risk of being viewed as the preverbal stick-in-the-mud, the debate is misguided. Tesla, most EV start-ups, and Wall Street want vehicle development and production to be more like Silicon Valley. But Silicon Valley’s “speed of thought” also entails launching bug-prone products. Bugs are begrudgingly tolerated on our lap tops, tablets, and cell phones. But their error states do not yield life and death results.

    So, I’ll submit the main distinction is not EV vs. ICE, but is the haste of Silicon Valley processes versus the prudence of safety-related processes (developed over 70 years). That prudence still occasionally experiences safety/quality issues, but those issues are resolved with restoration of full function. The Silicon Valley solution singularly relies on software updates OR turning off functions. Some functions cannot be turned off because they are regulated.

    Also, much has been reported about Silicon Valley efficiency with respect to module integrations. But some integrations can expose an OEM to greater regulatory compliance issues. As an example, the windshield defogger is a regulated function. Tesla (and other OEMs) integrated its function into their mega touch screen. When the screen has a fault and can’t display, it triggers not only a customer frustration, but also a regulatory non-compliance.

    Bottom line, I hope safety and quality are not ignored in the haste to emulate Silicon Valley’s speed of thought. Wall Street is a 2-headed dragon. They will reward haste, and punish waste. Both haste and waste stimulate stock buys and sells. Either way, Wall Street firms make commissions on the transactions. If customers are left cold or companies crumble, Wall Street really doesn’t care. (let the arrows fly)

  8. Albemarle Says:

    7. Good points. Tesla has a history of fixing things on the fly which certainly hurts the government’s wish to fix safety problems, not just change them. They also have a history of letting a group of teenagers make decisions on interfaces, like playing games while driving on the centre screen and rolling through stop signs on Autopilot. No wonder the government agencies don’t trust them. It’s one thing to be quick and smart, it’s another to be trustworthy.

  9. Albemarle Says:

    China is not necessarily the source of these materials. They are running all around the world with big pots of government cash buying up mines and locking production up everywhere, including the U.S. and Canada. Many of these commodities have sufficient value they can be profitably mined in any country. Control remains with China.

  10. Rey Says:

    the future in automobiles in China is BEVS and Tesla will be very successful there, the Japanese and as Koreans are toast, China BEVs will be a major force all over the World , Toyota will shrink as they have focused on Hybrids and FOOLCELLS aka FCV,GM? That Co. is lead by a bumbling fool and lier who thinks GM is the leader in BEVs and cowtows to the US President.

  11. Rey Says:

    the future in automobiles in China is BEVS and Tesla will be very successful there, the Japanese and as Koreans are toast, China BEVs will be a major force all over the World , Toyota will shrink as they have focused on Hybrids and FOOLCELLS aka FCV,GM? That Co. is lead by a bumbling fool and lier who thinks GM is the leader in BEVs and cowtows to the US President.

  12. Wim van Acker Says:

    @China BEV sales: BYD sales in January 2022 add up to almost 80,000, which is huge.

  13. Lambo2015 Says:

    Drew; Great perspective. I was thinking in just terms of public perception and shaking off their persona of always being viewed as a ICE builder. No doubt trying to operate like a silicon valley company would be ideal from a Wall Street perspective. I agree that OTA updates doesn’t just resolve the release of half baked software in an automobile.

    Typical vehicle launch takes 36 months most software is out of date in that time. So maybe they need to be thinking/launching of those systems separately.

  14. Merv Peters Says:

    Interesting how the VW family is owned/controlled.
    A very successful operation. And some really nice products.

  15. Merv Peters Says:

    More good news from Ford,some very interesting items either being delivered or soon to be.

  16. Kit Gerhart Says:

    8 Governments should mandate certain things in cars, like a stalk on the left side of the steering column for turn signals, some kind of physical control for wipers, and a steering wheel. When real autonomy exists, that would would obviously change, but for now, cars need real controls that are intuitive and immediately accessible for certain functions.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    10,11 Hybrids are a great interim technology for the millions of us without home charging for an EV. I’m with you on fuel cells, at least for now. Most hydrogen is made from methane, and there are very few places to even get it. When infinite quantities of free electricity exist to electrolyze water, hydrogen fuel cells would make more sense, but that will never happen.

    Still, I wouldn’t count out Toyota. They are starting to develop BEVs, and will have several on the market by the time that market is larger than the current ~3% in the US, and ~0.6% in Japan, Toyota’s biggest markets. Toyota is not a big presence in Europe, with only ~6% market share, so their lack of EVs, so far, is not a big thing in that EV intensive market.

  18. JWH Says:

    #16 – Have to laugh on suggestion to mandate turn signal lever on left side of steering column. Got a Backdraft Racing roadster last summer & the turn signal is on the right side of the column since there is not enough room between the column and body on the left side. I’ve adapted to it w/o any issues.

  19. Kit Gerhart Says:

    18 Yeah, a stalk on the right side is ok, and some RHD cars are that way. Having no turn signal stalk, like current Models S and X is the problem.

  20. Kit Gerhart Says:

    18,19 Maybe most RHD cars have it on the right side. I haven’t driven one in 40 years. Either side, a turn signal stalk is intuitive, and easy to find. Alternatives, not so much.

  21. Lambo2015 Says:

    3-6% market share tells me its too early to declare a winner, or who will be a leader in EVs. Lots can change before even getting to 25% market share. As everyone is well aware of the shortcomings of EVs mainly being recharging time and price. That means the company that develops a battery technology that resolves that, could easily shoot to into the lead. Flip side have a few battery fires like Bolt and you see what happens there too.
    The electric car makes sense its the batteries that are the hold up, and has been for over 100 years. So even someone not currently in the game, could come in and change everything. Figure out how to make current batteries for half the price and you’d dominate the EV market. Its anyone’s game.

  22. Sean Wagner Says:

    Good to see news out of China. The BYD Dolphin is that elusive $25K EV that Tesla decided not to pursue for now. I’m fairly certain that the moment it’s sold in Europe, it will fly off the lots.

    Howevever, the BYD Qin and Song are also available with an IC engine – it would be good to know what made it onto that list.

    I actually saw my first non-Tesla Chinese EV on the streets here in Switzerland recently, an Aiways U5. I find it hard to keep track of all these newcomers’ names.

  23. Lambo2015 Says:

    22 Don’t worry many of these start-ups are going to go belly up in the coming years. They need to come out of the gate with a hit or its going to bankrupt them. Its a huge expense to launch a vehicle and if its not a popular EV they likely wont have the money to recover with a second model.

  24. Kit Gerhart Says:

    The European car companies could all be in trouble, unless the countries institute protrctionism.

    https://youtu.be/fNeF2NWuGfg

    This Chinese car is not fantastic, but it would serve a lot of peoples’ purposes, and probably costs barely over half as much as the competition.

  25. S65AMG Says:

    Re Chinese BEVs list.

    I saw a ton of plug-ins when I was last in CHina (all of Nov 2019), and many of them BYDs, some were Lexus RX clones, as the one of the Dean that invites me there every year, very good interiors BTW. His assistant, whose husband also worked at that U, would drive me around in their Caddy Compact (by US standards) SUV, which also had a good interior. She seemed very proud of it and was extremely nice to me so I did not want to burst her bubble about Caddys not really being luxury cars today that can compare to flagship Mercs, BMWs and even Audis (although I like their 20-year old ‘art and science’ exterior design, it did not grow old yet). I did not see any Teslas yet at that time, BYD and other local makers had been at it for many years before Tesla started making cars in Shanghai, long after I left.

    Europe already has dirt-cheap brands that were regularly ridiculed (as they deserved) by the Top Gear 3 Clowns (the funny ones, not the current crop). Such as the Cheap Renault division, Dacia of Romania. In a top gear episode, the three clowns were cruising in Bentleys and ROllses and S 600s and were asking the poor locals in Albania or somewhere, about the Dacia Very Crappy, Very basic, Sandero SUV, as if they really gave a rat’s ass, and as if it was the new Ferrari or something.

    Having said that, I’d welcome the invasion of Chinese BEVs in Europe, maybe we can buy one there at a low price BUT without the ridiculously low range of the “Wu Ling” tiny toy. I would need a minimum of 100 miles EPA range so I could do both the commute from my summer home to the capital downtown and the around town shorter distances and have some margin of safety so I would not need to use the damned chargers, but only charge at home overnight. That commute is 50 miles RT, but I don’t go there if I don’t have to, and no more than 2-3 times a week.

    BTW Both Autoline and Kit gave me credit for nicknaming my 98 740iL “The Magnificent 7″. My own nickname for the car was “the Decathlete”. The other, much cuter one above, was the name of a website and email group of owners of these masterpieces. The main guy there was named Koch, from Buffalo, who had a fleet of V12 750iLs of the same vintage, and used them to tow stuff. Go figure.