This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
MUSK SAYS 12 MORE GIGAFACTORIES ON THE WAY
Elon Musk says the Model Y will become the best-selling vehicle in the world next year. And he says it’s already #1 when it’s measured by the revenue it generates. At the company’s annual meeting yesterday he told shareholders that Tesla is already at a 1.5 million vehicles a year run-rate and will end the year at 2 million. And then he dropped a couple of bombshells. Musk says the company might announce a new assembly plant by the end of the year, and could end up with 10 to 12 more plants that will make 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles a year. That puts Tesla right on track to reach Musk’s stated goal of selling 20 million vehicles a year, which would make Tesla as big as Toyota and Volkswagen put together.
TESLA USES SUNSHINE TO OFFSET ALL ENERGY USE
Elon also dropped this interesting factoid. All the solar panels that Tesla has sold have captured more energy than it took to manufacture and charge all the Teslas that have ever been built. And that includes home charging.
BORGWARNER DOUBLES EV REVENUE
Can legacy suppliers make the transition to an electric future? Sure looks that way. BorgWarner is best known for making ICE components, but it expects its EV related revenue to hit $850 million this year, which is more than double what it was in 2021. And by 2025, its EV revenue is estimated to jump to $3.7 billion. It also acquired EV charging company Rhombus Energy Solutions for $130 million. Borg will supply high-voltage coolant heaters to two automakers, one a global OEM starting in 2023 and the other a Chinese startup in 2024. Borg didn’t reveal the companies. And it will make a battery system for a European commercial vehicle maker beginning in 2024. And again, it didn’t name the automaker.
7 CHINESE OEMs ON FORTUNE 500 LIST
Chinese automakers are becoming more and more established. There are now seven Chinese OEMs on the Fortune 500 list. BYD is the newest entrant, the other companies include Geely, Dongfeng, SAIC, FAW, Beijing Automotive and Guangzhou Automobile. In total, there are 23 automakers on the list with Volkswagen, Toyota and Stellantis being the top three.
BP & CATL BUILD EV CHARGING STATIONS IN CHINA
Here’s something unexpected. Two of Europe’s biggest oil companies are investing in EV charging stations in China. BP just formed a partnership with Avatr to build a fast charging network in the country. Avatr is an EV joint venture between automaker Changan and battery maker CATL. The first stations will open this year in China’s major cities and by next year it will expand to 100 charging sites in 19 cities. The stations will have 480 kW of power, which is enough to provide 200 kilometers or 124 miles of range in 10 minutes. BP also partnered with ride-hailing company DiDi Chuxing back in 2019 to open an EV charging network.
NIO & SHELL BUILD EV BATTERY SWAPPING STATIONS IN CHINA
But it’s not just BP. Earlier this week, Shell and NIO also opened their first supercharging and battery swapping station in China. The site is equipped with two 180 kW charging piles and a battery swap unit. NIO and Shell plan to open 100 swapping stations in China by 2025. And they’ll jointly operate swapping stations in Europe starting later in the year.
ARRIVAL IS NEXT STARTUP TO DELAY PRODUCTION
Commercial EV startup Arrival is running into some problems. It has an interesting strategy where it wants to convert unused warehouses in the areas it plans to sell into little factories to build its vehicles. But it looks like it’s trying to expand too fast for today’s automotive environment. It eventually plans to have three vehicles in its lineup, but it’s delaying its bus and car projects, so it can save money and put more resources into its van, which is scheduled to start production in the third quarter. Investor uncertainty has caused Arrival’s stock price in the U.S. to slide 75% so far this year.
NIKOLA BEATS WALL STREET ESTIMATES
But it’s not all bad news for EV startups. Nikola said it delivered 48 Tre battery electric trucks to customers in a three-month period, which was behind targets, but each one sold on average $55,000 above what the company was expecting. That helped it post a positive net income for the second quarter, which beat Wall Street estimates. Nikola also revealed it will start trials with its Tre battery electric and fuel cell trucks with Walmart this month and next. And things are looking a little more positive for Lordstown as well. It announced it was able to cut costs and deliveries of its Endurance pickup are still scheduled to start in the 4th quarter of this year.
VW COMES OUT WITH CHEAPER ID.4
Volkswagen ID.4 sales are down significantly this year in the U.S., but help may be on the way. The new base version of the EV, which has a much smaller battery pack – 62 kWh vs. 82 kWh – also has a much smaller price tag. It starts at a little under $39,000, including destination charges, but before the federal tax credit. That’s about $5,000 less than models with the bigger battery. And the first examples are expected to start hitting dealer lots this fall.
SCAN TOOL LETS INDEPENDENT REPAIR SHOPS WORK ON EVs
Will independent repair shops be able to work on EVs? You bet they will, thanks to a scan tool developed by MAHLE that can perform diagnostics on EV batteries. They call it MAHLE TechPRO and it connects to the EV’s charging plug, then downloads data to the cloud for the diagnostics. It can even analyze the coolant that’s used with batteries and predict when it needs to be replaced. It also generates what Mahle calls an E-Health report that forecasts the remaining expected life of the vehicle. And this enables independent workshops to go after business beyond the internal combustion engine.
BMW GETS LITHIUM FROM AUSTRALIA
BMW is locking up the raw materials it needs for its future EVs. It signed a deal with an Australian mining company to supply it with lithium hydroxide, which will be used to make batteries in Europe. Those batteries are likely to be used in BMW’s next generation of EVs, which it calls Neue Klasse. According to CEO Oliver Zipse, the first model will be a 3 Series-sized sedan and the second will be a sporty SUV. But that Neue Klasse won’t be coming until 2025. BMW has relied heavily on converting old ICE platforms to make its EVs, so its been a bit behind on launching dedicated BEVs.
HOW THE COPS CAN PULL OVER AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
A lot of people have wondered how the cops will ever be able to pull over autonomous cars? Well an autonomous startup called Embark claims it just did the first public demonstration of a police cruiser pulling over a semi truck. Embark has programmed its AV system to recognize the flashing lights of an emergency vehicle, as well as some other clues that it did not identify. Once the AV pulls over to the side of the road and stops, the police can get the vehicle’s documents from a lockbox. The cops just have to call Embark and get a code to open the lockbox. Embark tested the system for three months with the Travis County Sheriff’s department in Texas before it did this public demo.
But that’s the end of today’s show and this week. Have a great weekend.
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Comments (16)
August 5th, 2022 at 12:31 pm
Autonomous trucking; Interesting point Sean. So drug, gun, people smugglers can use an autonomous truck so that way no one risks getting arrested. They would just loose a very expensive truck.
August 5th, 2022 at 12:37 pm
Tesla seems to be on its way to continue its path toward automotive dominance. Well at least a serious contender to take a good share from the big boys. I think Elon will need a few more models than the current ones and cybertruck to get there but I’m sure they have some things in the works. It will be interesting to see how Tesla handles model refreshes. Will they throw a new front and rear fascia on the Model 3 and S and call it good or will it be more extensive?
August 5th, 2022 at 12:56 pm
#2 Tesla is making changes constantly, the Insides and Software are more important to the ompanies cars than SHEET METAL Exteriors , if you havent noticed.
Bloomberg said yesterday Tesla is getting rid of it Junk Bond status and another analyst said it will soon join the Blue Chip club, meanwhile other startups are struggling with ” Production Hell”
Whats that hated Tesla fan name again?
August 5th, 2022 at 12:59 pm
If Tesla is to “take over the world,” they will need to make cars a lot less pricey than the “fairly expensive to very expensive” lineup they have now. Also, Cybertruck, if it ever makes it to production, will sell in miniscule numbers outside of North America.
Wasn’t Elon talking about a Golf-size hatchback for the European market a while back? I haven’t heard anything about it lately, but it, and something even smaller will be needed if Tesla’s grand plan to sell 20M a year is to happen.
August 5th, 2022 at 1:33 pm
Tesla has current success, but also they are expensive cars with no luxury, and have indifferent quality and old styling. Even now, new EVs coming on the market are being positively reviewed in comparison to Tesla. Often the biggest knock is the Tesla $$ and quality, which, as choices keep arriving, become more and more important.
Tesla doesn’t care right now as they can sell all they can make. However, reputation rebuilding takes time. A multi-year culture of not caring about build quality will come back to bite them.
August 5th, 2022 at 1:54 pm
5 The other issue Tesla will face in the coming years is it no longer being the fad. Tesla was essentially first and offered something no one else was offering. A very quick EV with decent Sedan styling. Meanwhile everyone else was launching econobox EVs. The S was expensive and received a cult like following. People got excited about Tesla and when the 3 and Y hit people wanted to be part of this club. However as the years pass and more and more manufacturers are getting EVs out there can Tesla maintain the excitement for its vehicles? Or will they become yesterdays news and like many fads become as unpopular to own as quickly as they once were popular to own? No doubt they will need to step up the quality and stay price competitive to continue growing. I just wonder how perception will fair over time. In ten more years Tesla could be the fanny pack of the EVs. Buyers are fickle and people like Rey think the current winning combination is enough to keep them on top. I think it will require a lot more than that.
August 5th, 2022 at 2:41 pm
Ya gotta love Elon’s optimism and ambition. But, I don’t really see the rest of the auto industry just laying down to let him take 20-25% share of the world auto market. Currently he has the momentum. But the next three years will change the market picture pretty dramatically and his 20-plant announcement may come to be viewed as boyish enthusiasm mixed with inexperience.
August 5th, 2022 at 2:52 pm
The Tesla stockholders meeting web link is to one of the better edited, summaries of the technical content. Ignore and dismiss Tesla at your peril.
Top Tesla technologies are the gigacastings, structural battery pack, and LiFeP cell chemistry. The Tesla of 2019 is not the Tesla of today nor likely tomorrow. The sheet metal is less important than the guts inside and improved manufacturing.
August 5th, 2022 at 3:10 pm
Musk has built a house of cards. The Model S was designed by Henry Fisker way back in 2006 and it sure looks the part. Model 3s and Ys are ubiquitous in my area just like Honda Civics were 20 to 30 years ago. The cool factor is deflating. The Taycan is the one to have and it looks sensational. Nobody buys the S in my city. Musk’s mean spirited behaviour is really starting to turn people off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfmAG4dk-rU&ab_channel=DriveTeslaCanada
August 5th, 2022 at 3:33 pm
8 I wasn’t dismissing Tesla. Just stating that it will take more than software updates to remain on top. As designs get long in the tooth and more and more manufacturers launch exciting new EVs Tesla will have to freshen the design and launch more vehicles to cover more segments. I also question the cult like following the company currently has. The company has a lot of support and excitement around it. But that doesn’t always equate to customers. For those that are a fan of Tesla but haven’t bought an EV yet. If they decide in 5 years will they still be as enamored with Tesla then or will they shop around to the many options that will be available?
It was not slam on Tesla and I hope they continue to do well but I don’t think its going to be as easy when consumers have lots more to choose from and prices get more competitive.
August 5th, 2022 at 4:04 pm
Price and quality concerns aside, Tesla makes incredible vehicles. I still feel that they are the tip of the spear. Others have created BEV that are amazing in their own right. I hear and understand those that say that, though the look of their vehicles have stayed mostly the same, it is the changes and updates underneath the ‘skin’ that matter. While that may be true, as someone else in this thread has mentioned, ‘humans and fickle’. There was a vehicle that turn the industry on its ear! The automaker could not build enough of them and for years, even though competitors rose to challenge it, still wore the sells crown for years to come! That vehicle is…the Dodge/Plymouth/Chrysler Mini vans and now most people won’t be could Dead in them! The main reason being, the generation raised using them, resent them and see them as the ‘mama-mobile’! That is my concern with Tesla products, with there look staying pretty much the same. People may see them as their parents vehicle, while they want something that’s up to date, despite all of the revolutionary new tech underneath! Essentially what will happen, Tesla will be coming the one thing it is hated all along and more then anything else, a Legacy auto maker! The thing is, that’s OK, especially when you have products that people buy as a result of their reputation. Toyota has enjoyed this for many years, the thing being that they had quality that lived up to that standard. Tesla, on the other hand, has constantly had quality issues. Tesla may always be the tip of the BEV spear. Yet, as others rise to the challenge, while not being as efficient, or have as much arrange, or power, etc., but offer nearly much as they do, with modern style and a more attractive price, not owning the spear’s tip doesn’t sound so bad! While the Detroit are making some of the best products in their history and according to many reports and auto journalists, their products are on par with the industry’s best! Yet, they are still dogged in the eyes of the buy public as having inferior products and the spector of poor reliability hangs over them. If Tesla doesn’t come to terms with this with these issues, as someone else has said, they could one day be lumped in with the other American OEMs.
August 5th, 2022 at 4:26 pm
VW did well in major markets for ~20 years with two minimally changed models, and much longer than that in some markets, like Brazil and Mexico. They needed a lot more models, though, covering a broad swath of the market to get where they are now. Tesla will need to cover much more of the market, if they are to sell even 10M cars a year, never mind the dream of 20M.
August 5th, 2022 at 4:47 pm
The real competition is ICE vs EV, not so much EV vs. EV. Every conquest of any EV over an ICE is success and Tesla doesn’t really care whose EV. For example, :August 3, Autoline Daily:
“(BMW) is down 13.4% compared to last year.”
“(BMW) sold nearly 76,000 BEVs, which is more than double compared to last year.”
Those BMW EVs likely cannibalized the BMW ICE cars. Elon also quipped how the Super Bowl EV adds by the honorable competition boosted Tesla sales.
August 5th, 2022 at 9:19 pm
13 The BMW EVs may be cannibalizing BMW ICErs, but also, BMW fans may be adding to their fleets with them. I see that, with Taycan drivers at Porsche club ‘cars and coffee’ cruise ins. People with spare money are buying Taycans to go along with their 911 and Cayenne.
August 7th, 2022 at 9:58 pm
I enjoy Online daily on my big screen TV and am a loyal follower. Please consider finding a way to date or serialize your program, as seen by me watching your programing on my LG smart TV.
Although I would love to watch the show ever day, as it is uploaded, my chaotic lifestyle leads me to trying to “catch up” after being away. The result is a disaster.
I watch the latest episode, then YouTube guides me to a 3 or for week episode, so I get frustrated and give up.
Please give it some thought as to how you make some small tweaks to help guide me through my catch-ups.
Thanks Brian Hatch
August 8th, 2022 at 8:28 am
13 There is no doubt that BEV sales will continue to grow. The real question is where is the actual cap and what does that growth actually look like? EV sales in the US are right around 5% of total sales. Its taken 10 years to get to here but it wont take 10 years to garner another 5%. So lets say it doubles in the next 5 years. Twice as much in half the time. Pretty aggressive growth but that’s still only 15% by 2027. Then lets say they double again in another 5 years and grab another 20%. That puts EV sales at 35% by 2032. Then lets say they take 40% in those next 5 years. That still only puts EV sales at 75% in 2037. That’s pretty aggressive and faster than I really think things will happen. Even if the government bans the sale of ICEs after 2030, people are keeping their vehicles 10-12 years. Meaning those that buy that last year of ICE wont be ready to buy an EV until potentially 2042. So ICEs will be around for many more years and I would really like to see the sales projections that support a 2030 deadline. The government may want to see it happen by then but I don’t see the buying public supporting that plan.