3 Comments to “AAH #621 – Why Toyota Is Doing A U-Turn With Its EV Strategy”

1. George Ricci Says:
   October 27th, 2022 at 5:38 pm

   The topic of where all the electricity is coming from for EV’s came up briefly. What always gets left out is when you get an EV there is need/want/desire/interest in getting solar panels installed on your house.

   AV and EV go together, and the large electric draw of AV will reduce the range of the EV. Yes, but with the advancement of higher performance processors there has been increase in computational power per watt. Also, batteries are increasing in power density. As improvements are made over time, this will be a non-issue. All of GM’s Cruise vehicles are EV’s, so they have to make it work.

   Tesla loyalty – Part of Tesla’s high loyalty rate is because of Elon Musk. With the loss of Steve Jobs, Elon is seen as the visionary who is driving future innovation.

2. Carlos Martín Says:
   October 27th, 2022 at 7:18 pm

   in order to expand on the topics you adressed on this panel, all very important forward looking, here a few statistics:

   - the current share of renewables on the US grid is 25% and the yearly replacement rate of fossil fuels is currnetly about 2%/a, what will accelerate with IRA (not dare to forecast by how much). In Europe the ratio is a lot higher and the replacement rate is now quicker out of necessity. China is currently about 22% but the investment in solar and wind is 1.5 times higher than the rest of the world combined. In short we can no longer see the grids as a static situation, it has its own dynamic and it has to be taken into consideration on any forcast.

   - Electricity consumption by EV’s is dictated by the fleet, not the monthly or yearly sales, e.g. Norway: this is the second year where sales are about 80% of the total market, yet the reduction of gasoline/diesel is about 5.5%/a so far.

   - Tesla dominance imho is not only due to brand preference but also due their efforts in turning all their ernings into capex for manufacturing expansion and improvement. It is not necessarly the case that the other automotive groups don’t have something to compete, they haven’t truly committed to invest and secure the supply chain to support their aspirations. e.g. GM: they now delayed EV prodution target due to insufficient batteries, hence they did not truly committed with the supply bases. The true stasis of the competition is therefore not clear as ony BYD is growing capacity at a similar rate as Tesla, yet sacrificing EBIT greatly.

   I think we may gain a more clear picture by the end of 2023, once the announced investments are at least partially up and running, because right now is EV’s vs. ICE’s, not EV’s vs. EV’s

3. Carlos Martín Says:
   October 27th, 2022 at 7:18 pm

   in order to expand on the topics you adressed on this panel, all very important forward looking, here a few statistics:

   - the current share of renewables on the US grid is 25% and the yearly replacement rate of fossil fuels is currnetly about 2%/a, what will accelerate with IRA (not dare to forecast by how much). In Europe the ratio is a lot higher and the replacement rate is now quicker out of necessity. China is currently about 22% but the investment in solar and wind is 1.5 times higher than the rest of the world combined. In short we can no longer see the grids as a static situation, it has its own dynamic and it has to be taken into consideration on any forcast.

   - Electricity consumption by EV’s is dictated by the fleet, not the monthly or yearly sales, e.g. Norway: this is the second year where sales are about 80% of the total market, yet the reduction of gasoline/diesel is about 5.5%/a so far.

   - Tesla dominance imho is not only due to brand preference but also due their efforts in turning all their ernings into capex for manufacturing expansion and improvement. It is not necessarly the case that the other automotive groups don’t have something to compete, they haven’t truly committed to invest and secure the supply chain to support their aspirations. e.g. GM: they now delayed EV prodution target due to insufficient batteries, hence they did not truly committed with the supply bases. The true stasis of the competition is therefore not clear as ony BYD is growing capacity at a similar rate as Tesla, yet sacrificing EBIT greatly.

   I think we may gain a more clear picture by the end of 2023, once the announced investments are at least partially up and running, because right now is EV’s vs. ICE’s, not EV’s vs. EV’s