AD #3484 – BYD Could Outsell Tesla; Wyoming Wants to Ban EVs; Americans Don’t Plug In Their PHEVs Enough
January 16th, 2023 at 11:56am
Listen to “AD #3484 – BYD Could Outsell Tesla; Wyoming Wants to Ban EVs; Americans Don’t Plug In Their PHEVs Enough” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 9:21
0:08 BYD Could Outsell Tesla In 2023
0:56 EV Demand Caught Lithium Miners by Surprise
1:41 Wyoming Wants to Ban EVs
2:49 MG Outsells Mitsu & Hyundai In Australia
3:31 MG Cyberster Concept
4:13 Volvo To Make a Minivan?
5:28 Americans Don’t Plug in Their PHEVs Enough
6:32 Opel Astra PHEV Rated At 213 MPG
7:30 Beware the Ides of March
8:20 Win $100,000 From Chevrolet
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BYD COULD OUTSELL TESLA IN 2023
Chinese automaker BYD is on a tear. It sold a record 1.8 million vehicles in 2022, more than triple from the previous year. 911,000 of those were fully-electric vehicles. And if it’s able to continue to boost sales like this, BloombergNEF says that BYD could overtake Tesla in global BEV sales this year. Tesla delivered 1.3 million vehicles last year and Bloomberg expects its sales to grow another 30% to 40% this year. The Model Y will also be the top-selling EV globally in 2023. But BYD will be hot on Tesla’s heels throughout the year and the race will depend heavily on pricing strategy.
EV DEMAND CAUGHT LITHIUM MINERS BY SURPRISE
Sales of EVs are growing far faster than a lot of experts expected. Especially the companies that mine lithium. Consumption doubled in just the last two years and caught lithium miners flat footed, which is sending prices soaring. The total value of lithium sold hit $35 billion in 2022, up from just $3 billion in 2020. Now there’s a global rush to open new lithium mines. So prices are expected to fall about 8% this year because production should increase anywhere from 22% to 42%. But if the miners can’t mine it fast enough, the analysts warn that prices will continue to rise.
WYOMING WANTS TO BAN EVs
But maybe this will slow down lithium demand a bit. While many countries, states and cities want to ban the sales of new ICE vehicles, Wyoming wants to ban the sale of EVs. In fact, it wants to ban them by 2035. The sponsors of the legislation say the oil and gas industry has created countless jobs and generated revenue for the state. And they say that Wyoming doesn’t have enough of a charging infrastructure. Wyoming is the 8th largest oil producer in the U.S.
MG OUTSELLS MITSU & HYUNDAI IN AUSTRALIA
Holy moly. MG, the classic, iconic British brand, which is now owned by SAIC, outsold both Hyundai and Mitsubishi in December in Australia. It was only a narrow margin, but it’s the first time a Chinese brand has ever done that. It came in at #5 overall on the monthly sales charts. However, that was only for one month. Hyundai and Mitsubishi outsold MG by roughly 25,000 units each for the full year. Even so, this is a sign of things to come. And maybe this is too. Kia outsold Hyundai for the full year in Australia, and that was an industry first.
MG CYBERSTER CONCEPT
But moving back to MG. In 2021, it showed off this wild looking, quad-motor EV concept, called the Cyberster. However, like so many concepts, the production version is much more toned down. Renderings show a much more modern design. We see a little Jaguar F-Type mixed with some Mazda Miata and Fiat 124. We even see a little nod to its British heritage in the taillights. Like some MINIs, they look a bit like the Union Jack flag when put together, which again was more pronounced in the Concept car. The production Cyberster is expected to launch sometime in 2024.
VOLVO TO MAKE A MINIVAN?
Volvo is going to make a minivan? It sounds weird to say, but a slide showing Volvo’s electrification plans for China has an MPV entering its lineup. It will be based on the wild-looking but luxurious Zeekr 009. And for those that don’t know, both Volvo and Zeekr are owned by Geely. The 009 is made on Geely’s SEA platform for electric vehicles and features a 100-kWh battery and either rear- or all-wheel drive with up to 544 horsepower. It’s said the Volvo version will get its own design and should launch by the end of the year.
AMERICANS DON’T PLUG IN THEIR PHEVS ENOUGH
Americans who drive PHEVs don’t plug them in as often as the EPA thought they would. That’s according to the ICCT, the International Council on Clean Transportation. It says PHEVs run on battery power anywhere from 26% to 56% less than the EPA expected. And gasoline consumption in those cars may be 42% to 67% higher. The ICCT got its data from Fuelly.com, where owners self-report their fuel economy, and from the California Bureau of Automotive Repair, which collects data from the OBD, or on-board diagnostics. The ICCT recommends that the EPA lower the benefits to automakers for having PHEVs in their fleets. And it wants the EPA to mandate a minimum electric driving range for PHEVs, just like California did. The ICCT also studied how PHEVs are used in Europe and found that the results there are even worse than in the U.S.
OPEL ASTRA PHEV RATED AT 213 MPG
Even so, Europe has one of the coolest PHEVs we’ve come across: the Opel Astra Sports Tourer 1.6L Turbo. Chris Thomas, who was on Autoline After Hours last week, got to drive it and provided us this report. The Astra Sports Tourer is about the size of a Ford Focus station wagon. It will do 0 to 100 kilometers an hour in 7.3 seconds. And it’s rated at a stunning 213 miles to the gallon based on the WLTP test. That’s only 1.1 liters of gasoline consumption for every 100 kilometers driven. And it only emits 25 grams per kilometer of CO2. Of course, all this assumes that it gets plugged in all the time. It’s priced at €40,000, which includes taxes, but does not include any subsidies.
BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH
Will used car prices start to go up again in March? That’s what a lot of industry experts think is going to happen. And here’s why. Most people lease a car for three years and then those cars go into the used car market. Millions of them, every year. Or at least that was the case until Covid hit. That’s when new car sales plummeted as automakers closed assembly plants and then got hit by the chip shortage. So that means there will be millions of fewer cars coming off lease and going into the used car market. And we’ll see the impact of this starting in March, which will be the 3-year anniversary of when the pandemic hit the US. So let’s keep our eyes open to see if this actually happens.
WIN $100,000 FROM CHEVROLET
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But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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Comments (37)
January 16th, 2023 at 12:10 pm
why is the opel astra phev not sold by gm in america?
January 16th, 2023 at 12:11 pm
1, GM no longer owns Opel.
January 16th, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Wyoming reminds me of Quebec Canada in the 1970’s when they were the largest supplier of asbestos in the world. When money and jobs are involved there’s no limit.
January 16th, 2023 at 12:12 pm
Not really sure how folks in the Lithium business got caught flat footed. Hey! heads up demand is going to keep growing from here on out.
Sean you never stated the all electric range if the Opel. Or does it use the ICE over a certain speed? Either way 213 MPG is impressive while still quick off the line.
January 16th, 2023 at 12:12 pm
@1.) Mainly because it’s not a GM product, but one from Stellantis!
January 16th, 2023 at 12:13 pm
2 Stellantis owns Opel, so if they ever sold an Opel in the US, they would probably badge it Jeep or Dodge.
January 16th, 2023 at 12:16 pm
why isnt opel astra phev sold in america as whatever gm brand they want to call it here? thought mary barra was this rockstar ceo.
January 16th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
Why isn’t the Buick Velite PHEV sold here? Cadillac XT5 hybrids? Nope!
January 16th, 2023 at 12:52 pm
since Lithium it the 5th most common element in the world there is no shortage of ore rather refining capacity and with many novel refining processes all coming to the forefront that will change in a few years plus with all those engineering minds[STEM] working on all the issues of BEVs many if not most issues will be solved
January 16th, 2023 at 1:03 pm
1. I also see quite a bit of the BMW Z4 in the bodyside of that MG concept.
2. I’m willing to bet (and I’m not a betting man) that PHEVs are being plugged in as often as possible, but their limited EV range results in more gas-powered driving than the east coast analysts can acknowledge as a real world reality (redundancy intended) in the fly-over states.
3. I agree there will be fewer off-lease vehicles, but the timing of the effect may be hard to pinpoint as OEMs initially deferred lease turn-ins… then many lessees bought-out their lease (taking advantage of the rising used car values and limited new car inventories).
January 16th, 2023 at 1:07 pm
MG’s dramatic sales growth down under will only continue. They have achieved dramatic sales increases with just 3 models. This year 2 more will join the line-up, including the new electric MG4 which is selling strongly in Europe.
January 16th, 2023 at 1:09 pm
Wyoming: Where it is 1950 all the time.
January 16th, 2023 at 1:50 pm
Wyoming’s legislation to ban BEV’s must be somehow political as it seems awfully myopic; just ‘shutup’ and leave it to the people. They don’t have to endorse BEV’s, just leave it alone; seems Wyoming would pro freedom and let the individual choose.
January 16th, 2023 at 1:51 pm
12 And with a population about 1/68 that of California. More vehicles would be sold in a week in CA than a year in WY.
January 16th, 2023 at 1:57 pm
13 Yeah, it’s just a publicity stunt for the least populous state in the U.S. I doubt if many car companies are worried about the Wyoming market.
January 16th, 2023 at 2:06 pm
Seven of the 10 most popular “cars” in Wyoming are big pickup trucks.
https://tap.fremontmotors.com/top-10-most-popular-vehicles-in-wyoming/
January 16th, 2023 at 2:20 pm
Once the EV conversion is complete, there won’t be any OEMs that will keep a plant running just to build ICE vehicles for Wyoming. The citizens better get used to buying used cars.
I bet tourism is a major contributor to Wyoming’s economy and creates quite a few jobs. How will visitors charge their EVs when they go to Wyoming? Perhaps this short-sighted publicity stunt will be revisited and they will continue working on the buildout of their charging networks.
January 16th, 2023 at 2:25 pm
Volvo to sell a minivan in China? Hey, why not?
Buick sells a lot of them there, where many mid-level and higher executives are chauffer-driven and enjoy a very high degree of personalized comfort in the rear seat area, often working while they are in transit.
January 16th, 2023 at 2:28 pm
13 Yeah! I think Wyoming would be more on the side of freedom of choice and just not ban ICEs. Obviously, it was more about making a statement. But it highlights the fact that a nationwide decision to go electric may sound great on paper but isn’t exactly the solution for some of the country. California/NY thinks the whole rest of the country should do what they do.
January 16th, 2023 at 2:50 pm
18 Nearly every car company sells minivans everywhere, except the U.S. and Canada. They are often called “MPVs” and most are smaller than Pacifica/Sienna, etc. sold in the U.S.
January 16th, 2023 at 3:17 pm
From what I’ve read, in Europe there are tax advantages for companies to provide PHEVs as company cars which is the market most are sold. However, employees given the choice between filling with gas using a company fuel card or paying for the electricity to charge at home, unsurprisingly chose the former.
January 16th, 2023 at 3:46 pm
21 It looks like the companies should reimburse the employees by miles/km driven, and let them buy gas or electricity with their own money. Then, they’d have more incentive to plug in the PHEVs.
January 16th, 2023 at 4:44 pm
EV? ICE? How about we build both and let people buy what suits their own needs instead of trying to force “one-size-fits-all” and disrupt a whole lot of jobs/industries/citizens? The segment who can only afford cars that are 15-20 years old are the ones who will bear the brunt of replacement battery costs for older EVs and this could potentially take affordable transportation away from the poorest people in society.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:25 pm
PHEV – I drive a phev and it’s my second plug car. On my first (Volt), I drove 99% of the time in electric mode, I purchased gas once or twice per year. Currently I drive a phev Volvo, so I drive in electric mode everyday and drive on gas on trips primarily. Phev cars do things gas cars and electric cars can’t do, I find it amazing. Too bad stats show few people leverage this properly, I suspect most people don’t have easy access to L2 charger, or their garage is full of crap instead of available for parking. Hope regulators don’t punish people like me by making these vehicles inaccessible going forward.
IDES – I think used cars will not go up in price as inventory of new cars are high at the moment, if used cars get pricier people will just buy new. And cars that are more than 3 years old are available. I see reports that auctions inventory suggest used car prices are trending downwards not upwards.
January 16th, 2023 at 5:25 pm
PHEV – I drive a phev and it’s my second plug car. On my first (Volt), I drove 99% of the time in electric mode, I purchased gas once or twice per year. Currently I drive a phev Volvo, so I drive in electric mode everyday and drive on gas on trips primarily. Phev cars do things gas cars and electric cars can’t do, I find it amazing. Too bad stats show few people leverage this properly, I suspect most people don’t have easy access to L2 charger, or their garage is full of crap instead of available for parking. Hope regulators don’t punish people like me by making these vehicles inaccessible going forward.
IDES – I think used cars will not go up in price as inventory of new cars are high at the moment, if used cars get pricier people will just buy new. And cars that are more than 3 years old are available. I see reports that auctions inventory suggest used car prices are trending downwards not upwards.
January 16th, 2023 at 8:07 pm
24,25 Even though I’d have a place to plug one in less than half the year, I’d like the idea of plug-in hybrids, if they would match, or nearly match the mpg of non plug-in hybrids when running on gas. Most of them don’t even come close. For those who can do most of their driving on plug-in power, they make sense. For those of us who couldn’t plug them in regularly, they do not.
January 16th, 2023 at 8:12 pm
#10
I’d agree on your point 2. If I look at my driving, I make two or three 15 mile trips and two 180 mile trips a week, with an occasional 45 mile trip tossed in. At best I’d get about 90 miles of electric driving in.
January 16th, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Since I first picked up a Cadillac CT6 2.0E plug-in at the beginning of Covid in April 2020, I have averaged 36 gallons of gasoline usage annually. That is average almost 15,000 miles annually and about 40 miles per charge. The 2.0T engine regularly see almost 40 mpg too.
January 16th, 2023 at 8:18 pm
26. I’m averaging over 100 mpg for three years driving almost 15k annually. I have seen a few thankful close to 200 mpg on a tank of gas.
January 16th, 2023 at 8:49 pm
28,29 That’s pretty good. It sounds like you have a good place to plug in, probably at home. You have low operating cost, and with a very nice car. Do they still sell it in China? It seems that China gets all of the good stuff from GM, like Buick wagons and sedans, and maybe still the CT6.
January 16th, 2023 at 9:59 pm
26 – if you can’t plug it then it doesn’t make sense unless it’s an suv (drag). I got overall average 1,000 mpg on my volt, but when running on gas only I think I got 35. My Volvo suv gets about the same gas mpg vs mild hybrid, about 28 – 30 (Volvo xc60). Volvo doesn’t keep track of overall average like my volt did.
January 17th, 2023 at 8:16 am
My daily drive to work is about 28 miles so 56 round trip. Take into consideration cold weather and battery degradation. I would think an EV with 100 mile range would work for my daily commute and any other running I may have to do. However, that means the car would absolutely need to be plugged in every weeknight. Forget one night and I cant get to work in the morning. Or I might have enough to get there but would need to charge before I came home. My employer currently doesnt offer any charging and I dont know of any nearby. So for me an EV is not of any interest to me. I would absolutely consider a CT6 like Norm T. That sounds like a perfect solution for my driving needs and its sad that the bureaucrats are basically making the PHEVs go away with the ICEs’. So I will likely hold onto my ICE much longer than they would like (for the environment) because they think EVs just work for everyone.
January 17th, 2023 at 10:16 am
Time to ask your facility manager about using an outside outlet for your eight or so hours you’re at work, at the least. I have worked many 12-hour days and could easily charged my CT6 PHEV on 120v vs 240v. But it is nice parking under a solar canopy on hot days as the car is much cooler getting into vs one sitting in the sun.
January 17th, 2023 at 11:07 am
As much as I think ICE bans are silly, an EV ban is equally silly. Seems to me the right choice is to let everyone decide what works best for them.
January 17th, 2023 at 11:59 am
BYD’s on its way to outselling Tesla, but it has not yet gained the quality accolades that Tesla has. It will take awhile for the leader of that race to come into focus.
But there’s no question that BYD is winning the model diversity race.
January 17th, 2023 at 4:19 pm
35 BYD quite possibly has better build quality than Tesla, but Tesla leads everyone in EV powertrain efficiency, in some cases, by a wide margin.
January 17th, 2023 at 4:32 pm
34 Wyoming’s EV ban is a non-serious stunt. The state is a land of anarchy, and probably allows use of unlicensed APVs and electric golf carts everywhere. Will they ban golf carts along with Teslas? I doubt it. As far as ICE bans, they will be adjusted to reality as 2030-2035 draws near.