3 Comments to “AAH #638 – The EV Transition: Reality or a Field of Dreams?”

1. Nc Says:
   March 9th, 2023 at 4:07 pm

   I am sad that these guys think that ICE cars will still be around in 5 to 10 years. How many incandescent bulbs can you buy? None.

2. Bryan Says:
   March 9th, 2023 at 6:44 pm

   Great discussion on the adoption of EV’s. One area, which might just be the 800 lb. gorilla in the room regards the fragility of the electrical grid in the US, from generation to distribution to the local plant. Of course much of this is a result of the same movement that has dictated the adoption of EV’s in the first place. In California where I live we are already getting regular flex alerts regarding consumption on hot summer days asking us to power down. EV’s in Calif currently are a low single digit share of our UIO, if we were even at 10% of UIO the grid in Calif would collapse. On hot summer days the backyard transformers across the Valley will be going off like popcorn. To address this complex shortfall will take hundreds billions just in Calif (restarting San Onofre will be expensive!) and will take decades to affect any meaningful change. This will not only destabilize the grid, EV’s will be seen as the culprit which old course isn’t fair. The real culprit will be a totally ineffective government strategy to address the problem.

3. Ukendoit Says:
   March 10th, 2023 at 8:06 am

   You can still get incandescent bulbs almost anywhere (Amazon, Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, Target…). They are supposed to be banned by the end of 2023 though, but you will still be able to buy them as “heat lamps”. They still sell candles, too (people used those for light long before those new fangled bulbs).
   I’m all for the electrics as the primary mode of transport due to the efficiencies, especially after they improve the technology a few more levels, but ICE will still be around for at least 1-2 generations. They may be small scale production or even kits, but most current enthusiasts will not give them up entirely. Look online at all the newly available (old technology) air cooled VW engines and accessories. That tech hasn’t been available from the manufacturer in the US for 50 years and still has a large following. That’s just one car brand, so extrapolate that to the interests of all the current car enthusiasts.
   Maybe 2-3 generations or 100 years after the ICEs are no longer available from the big companies, the enthusiasts will diminish to a small group, but to say they won’t be around in 5 to 10 years is ridiculous. There would still be a majority of ICE on the road in 5-10 years even if we stopped selling them right now.