6 Comments to “AAH #647 – The EV Transition: How Bad Will the Bloodbath Be?”

1. Albemarle Says:
   May 11th, 2023 at 5:23 pm

   I think there is an opportunity for traditional OEMs to move their EV learnings to their ICE divisions. Those divisions should be looking for the changes in structure as it will extend their lifespan.

   This will really supercharge the OEMs profit margins, giving them an advantage over EV only manufacturers until ICE is really dead. If they can transfer the new learnings from Tesla and others, even ICE vehicles production will benefit. Gigacastings lower costs regardless of powerplant.

2. Nc Says:
   May 12th, 2023 at 12:01 pm

   Once again, the fast pace of change is not understood the S curve is not a linear change.
   The world is now at 12% of global auto sales. If the truck sales are reduced by 10% what happens to the cost of production. Not do they fall this year and rise next year, but a permanent reduction.

3. Nc Says:
   May 12th, 2023 at 12:07 pm

   I understand your guest are employed by the auto industry and do not want to slam them.
   There are hundreds of new car companies under way right now. It only takes a few of them to succeed to have a huge impact on the current OEM’s. Who is forecasting a decline in ICE sales? The growth is EV means someone is selling less ICE cars.

4. Nc Says:
   May 12th, 2023 at 12:07 pm

   I understand your guest are employed by the auto industry and do not want to slam them.
   There are hundreds of new car companies under way right now. It only takes a few of them to succeed to have a huge impact on the current OEM’s. Who is forecasting a decline in ICE sales? The growth is EV means someone is selling less ICE cars.

5. Mike Finko Says:
   May 14th, 2023 at 11:06 am

   To understand why ‘Software Designed Vehicles’ are not meeting production deadlines you have to understand the IT developer world and their mindset – which is at odds with auto production.

   ‘Ship early and often’ and ‘Minimum Viable Product (MVP)’ are very common among successful software companies, shipping ‘something is always better then nothing’. As you can imagine it’s going to have issues, both big and small. You don’t have to be an IT expert to understand that this is in stark contrast to the typical 3-5 year development cycle for new model cars which focuses on delivering a VERY finished product because that’s the level customers demand today.

   Software development takes the old Jaguar approach to building cars in the 80′s – skip the super long design and testing process, the customers will provide the feedback. If you tell a CEO you will deliver a piece of software in 3 – 5 years they will laugh at you.

   One solution, of course, is open source unified software platforms (Automotive Grade Linux), but they also will take time to refine. And there will be resistance, as legacies typically have a hard time giving up control (AGL is really just Toyota, Mazda & Suzuki, with a bit of Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Mitsubishi)

   The other solution really is just ‘time’. As an example, the first Linux operating systems were clunky and difficult, only ‘hobbyists’ used them (excluding super early days, so starting about the year 2000), but over 5 – 10 years they are on par with Microsoft operating systems.

6. Mike Finko Says:
   May 14th, 2023 at 11:12 am

   Hey, how about this -
   Stellantis should make a modern ‘K-car’ for the masses, make it a cheap and simple BEV! Cut out all the ‘bells and whistles’, rough around the edges, but I bet it will ‘just work’ most of the time.