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Runtime: 12:06
0:00 Poll Shows Elon Musk Very Polarizing in America
1:29 Ford’s 2024 Earnings Mediocre
3:15 Jim Farley Bullish on EREVs
4:04 Volvo’s 2024 Earnings Strong, But Predicts Weaker 2025
5:16 Dealers Won’t Like Nissan’s New Incentive Plan
6:16 Nissan Looking For a New Partner
7:03 Rivian Thinks It Can Catch Up Fast with AVs
7:53 VW Developing New Family of Small EVs
9:08 Jeep Launches New Wagoneer S Trim
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TRUCK DRIVERS LIKE ELON MORE THAN EV OWNERS
Tesla’s sales are taking a nose dive in Europe and now we’ve got the latest numbers from Germany, which are pretty bad. The KBA, the Federal Motor Transport Authority, said 60% fewer new Teslas were registered last month in Germany compared to a year ago. That’s a huge drop, likely for a number of reasons. Tesla’s sales are typically weak in the first quarter, some customers may be waiting for the redesigned Model Y and a lot of people believe that Europeans are turned off by Elon Musk interjecting himself into European politics. And it’s not just Europeans. A fascinating poll of Americans that was conducted right after last November’s presidential election shows that Elon Musk has a highly unfavorable rating amongst people who buy PHEVs and EVs. Most women don’t seem to like him either. But conversely, amongst ICE and pickup drivers and men, Elon is rated quite favorably. However, it also shows that people who are interested in buying an EV this year are far more likely to shop Ford, GM and Toyota than Tesla. And remember, this poll was conducted last November. Elon is almost certainly more polarizing now then he was back then.
FORD’S 2024 EARNINGS MEDIOCRE
OK, now over to Ford, which posted its year end earnings. While there’s some glimmer of hope in the numbers, overall it was a pretty mediocre performance. Ford sold 4.4 million vehicles worldwide, up 1%. Revenue hit an all time record of nearly $185 billion. But expenses were almost $10 billion higher than the year before, so its operating profit fell 4.4% to $5.2 billion. Ford’s net profit of $5.8 billion was 36% higher. But remember, last year it took a $1.7 billion writeoff for changes to its pension obligations, so that big percentage gain really isn’t as good as it seems. One thing’s for sure, Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle unit, is what’s powering the company’s finances. Sales, revenues and profits were up strong. It posted an EBIT profit of $9 billion. The EV unit, called Model e, did just as it expected and lost $5 billion, even though it cut expenses by $1.4 billion. Ford Credit, the finance arm, beat Wall Street guidance, and posted a $1.7 billion EBIT. Surprisingly, it was Ford’s ICE unit, what they call Ford Blue, that fell far below guidance, posting a $5.2 billion EBIT, but that was $2 billion lower than Ford expected. Overall, Ford doesn’t see things getting a lot better this year. Wall Street was disappointed to hear that and the stock fell 7% in after-hours trading.
FARLEY BULLISH ON EREVs
But we did get some interesting tidbits from Ford’s earnings call with Wall Street analysts. CEO Jim Farley said it doesn’t see a market for full-size electric trucks and SUVs. He said the batteries are so big that “the economics are unresolvable.” However, Farley is quite bullish on small and medium electric trucks and SUVs. Remember, yesterday we reported that Ford is coming out with an electric version of the Maverick pickup. But Farley is even more bullish on extended range EVs, or EREVS, which he claims will be priced very similar to their ICE counterparts because there’s no transmission, no driveline, and no axles. And also added the incremental investment of adding a combustion engine is minimal for the customer.
VOLVO’S 2024 EARNINGS STRONG, BUT PREDICTS WEAKER 2025
But Ford isn’t the only automaker saying 2025 could be a rough year for the industry. So is Volvo Cars. It sold more than 763,000 passenger vehicles globally last year, which is an all-time sales record for the company and up 8% from the year before. That brought in $36 billion in revenue, which is also a record but only up slightly. The automaker’s operating profit shot up 12% to just over $2 billion and its net profit of $1.5 billion was up 13% compared to the year before. Yet, despite the good results, Volvo CEO Jim Rowan says that demand started to slow in the second half of last year and he expects 2025 to be more challenging due to increased competition and political uncertainty.
DEALERS WON’T LIKE NISSAN’S NEW INCENTIVE PLAN
In an effort to boost its retail sales in the U.S., Nissan is going to offer dealers cash for hitting monthly sales targets. The program, which is called a stair-step incentive plan, pays $250 per vehicle sold by dealerships that meet 90% of their sales goals. It goes up to $500 per vehicle for hitting the target and it increases to $1,000 if dealers go over by 10% or more. The sales goals vary by dealership and are based on past performance. The automaker sold just 64,000 vehicles in the U.S. last month, of which retail sales were up just 1%, but its fleet sales were up 15%. So, that’s why it’s offering the incentives. And while this should help Nissan move the metal, dealers don’t like stair-step programs because they feel pressure to hit the next level and will sell vehicles below cost to hit the targets and collect the bonus.
NISSAN LOOKING FOR NEW PARTNER
And speaking of Nissan, the automaker is looking for a new partner now that its merger with Honda fell through. Bloomberg reports that Nissan prefers to team up with a technology company and one that’s based in the U.S., since North America is Nissan’s most important market. That news sent Nissan’s shares up as much as 8.7% on the Tokyo stock exchange earlier today. But the report also says that Taiwan’s Foxconn is interested in partnering with the automaker. It approached Nissan about a tie-up in December but backed off after the automaker started negotiations with Honda. However, it didn’t give up completely and Foxconn is still interested in reaching a deal with Nissan.
RIVIAN THINKS IT CAN CATCH UP FAST WITH AVs
Rivian lags behind other automaker’s autonomous capabilities, but it thinks it can catch up fast. This year Rivian will start offering a hands-free highway driving system, but it will continue to build on its second-gen vehicle architecture as well, which it’s improving with software, AI and more powerful processors from NVIDIA. Rivian is also using more sensors. Its second-gen system features 11 cameras and 5 radars. With improvements, the company expects to launch Level 3 autonomous capabilities sometime next year. And Rivian hinted that it’s willing to use lidar to get to full autonomy. CEO RJ Scaringe says that’s one of the areas where it’s different from Tesla and a way for it to catch up to Autopilot and FSD.
VW DEVELOPING NEW FAMILY OF SMALL EVs
Volkswagen is coming out with a new family of small electric cars. The first is a production version of the ID.2all concept, which will hit dealerships sometime next year with a starting price under 25,000 euro. The model is based on a new front-wheel drive version of the MEB platform and will have about 220 horsepower and up to 450 kilometers or roughly 280 miles of range. Following the ID.2 comes an all-new, unnamed EV that will start at roughly 20,000 euro. We’ll see the concept in about a month, while the production version will be shown off in 2027. The model will debut VW’s all-new SSP platform, which it calls fully digitized and highly scalable. In fact, the automaker confirmed that new electric versions of the Golf and T-Roc will also use the platform. And previously, VW said SSP would be used by Audi and Porsche and would cover models with less than 200 horsepower up to those with over 1,700 horsepower. In all, the VW Group will introduce 9 new models over the next two years.
JEEP LAUNCHES CHEAPER WAGONEER S TRIM
Speaking of new EVs, Jeep debuted the Wagoneer S Limited at the Chicago Auto Show. It comes with less content than the Launch Edition, but the starting price is about $5,000 less. The Wagoneer S Limited has a suggested retail price of just under $67,000, including destination charges. It also qualifies for the full federal EV tax credit at purchase or lease, at least for now. It looks like that is going to get phased out over time under the Trump administration.
Is the transition to EVs inevitable? Sales are much weaker than expected, most automakers are losing billions on them, and President Trump might yank all the subsidies. But Mike Colias from the Wall Street Journal just wrote a book called Inevitable. And he predicts the market will still go all-electric. That’s why he’s our guest on Autoline After Hours today. We’re going to take a hard look at the new reality of what EVs face, as well as dive into the stories behind this week’s news. So join John and Gary when the action starts at 3pm eastern time.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. And I hope to see you later today.
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I recall a big announcement from VW 6-7 years ago where they said that all of their future vehicles would use the same platform. It could be stretched as needed for larger vehicles, but otherwise would be the same. This one platform approach was going to save the company tens of billions of dollars. From the graphic in today’s story, it looks like they did not realize that dream, but are going to take another shot at it. Best of luck to them.
GM Vet, actually VW pretty much did go to one platform with MQB and its EV derivative MEB. MLB is used for longitudinally mounted engines (mostly Audi), which then was modified and renamed PPC. But the massive savings either never materialized or the legacy costs at the company just swamped them.
Ford has been bragging for decades about how the F-series has been the best selling vehicle in the US for, what, 50 years now. Does anyone know how many of those years F-series outsold Chevy + GMC, which are essentially the same thing? GM big pickups outsold Ford by about 24 thousand in 2024.
Elon’s Musk and his role with ‘The Dictator”:is not going to end well. His car business is starting to feel the affects of it now in Europe as well as here in the U.S. It’s so unfortunate that so many people involved in a government job have been terminated. The new administration has been in place for only a couple weeks and has created a lot of havoc. Chaos is in high gear.
I had a 2000 Passat wagon which had a longitudinally mounted engine. VW and Audi must have shared more at that time, than more recently. I’m pretty sure it was very closely related to an A4, and maybe A6.
Still hoping vw will bring back the 2 door gti
Merv, sadly, the 2 door GTI and Golf seem to be gone in all markets. I think they still have 2 door Polos in many markets, but not north America.
The only chaos and havoc being created is the exposure of the high levels of government mismanagement of our tax dollars. Many of us have long suspected this but until now it has never been brought to light in such a dramatic way. Many feel that Elon Musk is a hero to this nation, not only for making electric vehicles mainstream (and profitable), creating the best charging infrastructure and now taking time out of his life to help the country. He could have just said ‘no thanks’ and retire to a yacht like so many other wealthy individuals. As far as electric vehicles being 100% ‘inevitable’ I would like to see Autoline report on the actual sales numbers for the new EV Charger. I hear they have an 1,100 day supply and have sold less than 100 total.
Joe G, Chairman Xi is loving Elon, inviting the CCP to fill the space vacated by Trump/Elon in controlling disease in underdeveloped countries. China’s influence will increase hugely, and the US is becoming a rogue state. The USAID budget is less than what is spent on military procurements the services don’t even want.
The review of USAID is just the beginning. And a solid beginning it appears to be, as it has outlined the ridiculous spending that was generally unknown to most Americans until now. So many of the programs funded by this organization were frankly absurd & highly ineffective.
Hopefully we will have many additional reviews of so other many areas of the Deep State Federal Bureaucracy, such as at the Department of Education, which is a gigantic organization that continues to demand a considerable number of poor performing educational programs & DEI initiatives, resulting partly in our under-performing schoolchildren. Certainly we don’t want to throw out the baby with the bathwater, yet it has been less than 3 weeks since Trump took office and his actions so far have been solid and refreshing. Give him some time to advance his ideas. NPR/PBS/MSNBC/The NY Times/etc., give the America citizen warped, twisted Left leaning views as outlined by Uri Berliner at NPR, here:
https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust
The screaming Deep State advocates against Trump are trumpeted all over the mainstream media to spew wild eyed nonsense about Trump or Musk. Yes it is true that Trump often exaggerates & negotiates fiercely to get results (see Victor Davis Hanson on how Trump thinks), but what would be expected of a man who was harangued for three years by the Democratic Leadership & mainstream media over the claim that he was a Russian puppet, with help from the DOJ, illustrating a disgusting display of Deep State attempts to damage a candidate, and then an elected president with a flat out lie, as was revealed. And which of the Democrat leaders paid for this? Which? NONE! And why was this? –It was because the Federal Government itself & the media favors an unaccountable Swamp.
Trump is acting in a reasonable and righteous manner & may indeed have to root out the rot of the former administration which greatly supported the established Washington DC bureaucrats that now number millions and are willing to interfere against candidates that desire to clean up their mess whether that is through Kash Patel (new director of FBI), Elon Musk (at DOGE), or the other Trump appointees. The absurd wastefulness, arrogance, & intrusion of Washington DC against individual rights has been building for 60 years now. See Reagan speeches from the mid 60s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkVCppsIyrA&t=2s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtZNVZvhWV8
This goes on and on. Trump may yet fail, but considering the assault he put up with from the mainstream media, the Democratic Party, the US Federal Government Deep State, & so many University Professors across the US (& in Europe) in the past and present, why shouldn’t a man who was elected to office be allowed to show what he can do? The massive spending insanity under both Republican and Democrats has increased our national debt (now $36 Trillion) to the point where we pay huge amounts just to service the debt! This government Goliath needs a massive overhaul & a solid reduction in size & scope & soon –through both reduction in size and cost as well as solid growth of the economy.
Trumps negotiating tactics may sometimes appear rough, & sometimes are rough if that is what is called for, but the idea is to resolve serious issues in an effective manner.
Trump is acting in a reasonable and righteous manner & may indeed have to root out the rot of the former administration which greatly supported the established Washington DC bureaucrats that now number millions and are willing to interfere against candidates that desire to clean up their mess whether that is through Kash Patel (new director of FBI), Elon Musk (at DOGE), or the other Trump appointees. The absurd wastefulness, arrogance, & intrusion of Washington DC against individual rights has been building for 60 years now. See Reagan speeches from the mid 60s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkVCppsIyrA&t=2s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtZNVZvhWV8
This goes on and on. Trump may yet fail, but considering the assault he put up with from the mainstream media, the Democratic Party, the US Federal Government Deep State, & so many University Professors across the US (& in Europe) in the past and present, why shouldn’t a man who was elected to office be allowed to show what he can do? The massive spending insanity under both Republican and Democrats has increased our national debt (now $36 Trillion) to the point where we pay huge amounts just to service the debt! This government Goliath needs a massive overhaul & a solid reduction in size & scope & soon –through both reduction in size and cost as well as solid growth of the economy.
Trumps negotiating tactics may sometimes appear rough, & sometimes are rough if that is what is called for, but the idea is to resolve serious issues in an effective manner.
Joe G —
How do you praise Elon for EVs and then slam Dodge/Stellantis for the EV Charger???
OK, Gary Paul, we get it. You don’t think it is useful for a tiny portion of the budget to be used to save countless lives in poor parts of the world, and you don’t understand that “soft power” is useful in international relations. Also, you don’t seem to care that much of what Donald and Elon are doing is illegal and/or unconstitutional, but they realize that the law suits to reverse what they are doing will take so long, that the damage of their actions will, essentially be permanent. China, Russia, and Iran will have moved in to replace USAID before the law suits are resolved.
My intent was not to ‘slam’ the EV Charger. It is a fine looking vehicle with many features that are appealing. I just am pointing out that we need to report on the sales numbers to see if this is something that is selling, and if not, why. I feel it would make an interesting story, in light of the EV inevitability reporting.