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Runtime: 10:50
0:00 Tesla Delays Launch of Low-Cost Model Y
1:49 Japan Could Ease Car Safety Regs For U.S. Trade Deal
2:34 Ford Stops Vehicle Shipments to China
3:00 Audi Considers U.S. Production to Avoid Tariffs
3:59 CATL Reveals 1,500-Km EV Battery
5:45 BYD & Aramco To Develop New Energy Vehicle Tech
6:33 Mercedes Teases Luxury Van for China
7:01 Autoline Aptera Poll Results
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
TESLA DELAYS LAUNCH OF LOW-COST MODEL Y
Tesla is going to miss its promise of launching more affordable models in the first half of this year, according to a report in Reuters. It says the lower-cost EVs, which are expected to be stripped down versions of the Model Y, will now come out sometime between the third quarter of this year or early next year. They’ll first be produced in the U.S. and by next year Tesla is aiming to make 250,000 units between its factories in Texas and California. But production is also expected to follow in China and Europe and Reuters reports that a similar stripped down version of the Model 3 is in the plans as well. It’s likely close to the decontented Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year, which has cloth seating instead of leather, no second-row screen or ambient lighting. Reuters says the reason for delaying the affordable model is unclear. It could be that Tesla is waiting to see how the new Model Y performs. First quarter Model Y sales in China were down 18.4%, but nearly 60% or over 48,000 units of those sales were in March when the new Y launched in China. Or it could be that Tesla is just worried that the affordable models will eat into sales of the current 3 and Y and it will be stuck with more expensive vehicles in inventory that nobody really wants. The company will report its Q1 results tomorrow, which should help clear things up, but those other reasons are why we think we’ll have to wait until the end of the second quarter to really see how Tesla’s 2025 is shaping out to be.
JAPAN COULD EASE CAR SAFETY REGS FOR U.S. TRADE DEAL
Japan sees vehicle safety as a bargaining chip to make a possible trade deal with the Trump administration. According to the Nikkei, Japan could ease up on some of its safety criteria, which has unique testing protocols and doesn’t accept U.S. crash standards as equal to its own. That makes it difficult for foreign automakers to get vehicle certification and is part of the reason the Japanese market is dominated by domestic brands. But now Japan has been slapped with a 24% tariff on all imports, which has temporarily been reduced to 10%, as well as a 25% import fee on cars, steel and aluminum. So, that’s why the country is considering options for a possible trade deal.
FORD STOPS VEHICLE SHIPMENTS TO CHINA
China’s reciprocal tariffs on U.S. made vehicles is forcing Ford to stop shipments to the country. The automaker said it has halted shipments of F-150s, Mustangs, Broncos and Lincoln Navigators that are made in the U.S., which now face tariffs as high as 150%. But Ford will continue to export engines and transmissions to China that are built in the U.S.
AUDI CONSIDERS U.S. PRODUCTION TO AVOID TARIFFS
And in other tariff news, Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume said that the company is currently in talks with the Trump Administration and is now considering building Audis in the U.S. Audi currently doesn’t build any vehicles in the U.S. They’re imported from Europe and Mexico. VW could possibly make the models at its plant in Tennessee or the facility it’s currently building in South Carolina for Scout Motors. But there’s one brand in the VW portfolio that won’t shift production to the U.S. Blume says it will continue to import Porsches because “Made in Germany plays an important role for U.S. customers.”
CATL REVEALS 1,500-KM EV BATTERY
Chinese EV battery maker CATL revealed three new battery technologies at its Tech Day earlier today. One was its “Freevoy Dual Power Battery” which has a maximum range of 1,500 kilometers or 932 miles. It achieved that by dividing the battery into two independent energy zones, a main energy area and a range extension area, which utilize different cell materials to maximize total range. You may remember this is the same idea that Our Next Energy or ONE came up with. While ONE never really got out of the testing phase, CATL has the advantage of being the biggest EV battery maker in the world. We think these packs could be popular with battery swappers along freeways since they’re likely to be driving longer distances. CATL also showed off its second-gen superfast charging battery, which is able to charge at a rate of 2.5 kilometers per second, meaning owners can add 520 kilometers or 323 miles of range in just five minutes. Even at -10 C or 14 F, it can charge from 5-80% in just 15 minutes. And lastly, the battery maker revealed its sodium-ion battery that will be sold under a new brand called Naxtra and will go into mass production in December. They have an energy density of 175 watt-hours per kilogram, which is nearly the same as an LFP battery. But sodium batteries aren’t as expensive because of the abundance of sodium and they don’t carry the fire risks of other battery chemistries.
BYD & ARAMCO TO DEVELOP NEW ENERGY VEHICLE TECH
Here’s a somewhat unexpected partnership. BYD and Saudi oil company Aramco announced plans to collaborate on the development of new energy vehicle technologies, which includes BEVs, PHEVs and EREVs. The companies didn’t provide specifics on the types of technology they’ll develop, but we wonder if Aramco could draw on Horse Powertrain, its ICE joint venture with Renault and Geely? Horse did after all just pull the wraps off a new hybrid concept that can be used in both plug-in and extended range setups. But either way this is still a shift for Aramco, whose executives have said they’re skeptical over the pace of the EV transition and whose investments up until now have focused on IC engines.
MERCEDES TEASES LUXURY VAN FOR CHINA
Mercedes is going to be showing off some fancy new vans at the Shanghai auto show, which starts kicking off tomorrow. It’s going to reveal the VLE and VLS that it says will range from flexible family vehicles and exclusive VIP shuttles to luxurious limousines with an enormous amount of space, which apparently even includes pillow-y seats and your own custom chess set.
AUTOLINE APTERA POLL RESULTS
Ok, it’s time to go over the results from our latest Autoline poll. We asked you what you think is going on at Aptera. It’s been promising a 3-wheel, solar-powered car for years but it still hasn’t delivered. 14% of our members said that launching a new company is hard, give it time. 57% said that Aptera can’t raise enough money to get into production. 14% said management is content to draw a salary, so there’s no rush. And the remainder said none of the above see my comments below.
And it looks like most of you are skeptical. Keith Mensing wrote “Too many startups in the EV [space] and not enough sunshine in much of the country for their niche to peak the publics’ interest.”
Jeffos said “I’d put this in the same category as the original Segway. Lots of hype … weak real world use case. If production ever does start, this will never be more than a toy.”
But there is some enthusiasm for Aptera. Roger Tochetto commented “Aptera product is awesome, I’m rooting for them and have invested a small amount. That said, current economic landscape is extremely challenging for EV startups given recent notable failures, this of course is very high risk but I’m fully vested in their mission. I hope I can actually buy one.”
And Kyle Robinson is also impressed. “They would be in production this year if they can raise the 60 million they need to get production tooling. No startup has gotten this far on so little capital!!”
We want to thank all of you that participated in the poll. Remember, our polls are open to viewers with Autoline memberships with YouTube or on Patreon. If you haven’t done so already, please consider joining, it only costs a few dollars a month. Look for a link to Patreon in our description box or you can click the “Join” button on our YouTube homepage.
But that’s it for today’s show, thanks for watching.
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Interesting that “shock & awe” (or “dazed and confused”) approach to tariffs is indeed getting countries and companies to consider negotiating what they never would have before. I hope this indeed works, because other than these few signs it’s been an all around disaster.
Japan’s downgrading safety standards could help BMW and M-B a little. They could probably sell a few US built SUVs in Japan. Does anyone else even built RHD vehicles in the US? Are there still RHD Mustangs.
The bottom line is that China needs the US market to sell all of their goods. EU and UK and any other countries combined cannot replace this golden goose. Especially since China already has those markets as well. There’s no new market to gain there because those countries already buy Chinese solar panels and drywall and the pantheon of cheap goods from China just like the US does. Chinese manufacturers lose a lot of business without the US market, probably more than they retain. Factories will close, layoffs, etc. So Mercedes may find China is not the great market for a premium upmarket van after all.
I believe, after a few weeks or months of playing hard to get, China’s leaders will act rationally and will not sacrifice the vast and so critical to their economy US market, and come to some agreement involving mutual tariff reduction. Other nations have acted irrationally in the past, but I don’t think the Chinese are that stupid. Even they blundered under Mao and have learned their lesson, even tho they keep Mao’s face on their money (the reason being Mao was only the second Chinese ever to unify China, the first was that nutty emperor who was buried with an underground army of terracotta soldiers in Xi’an, the ancient capital of China)
Markets always hate uncertainty, and will be very volatile until the above resolves. Markets were also very highly valued in terms of Price/Earnings ratio even before Trump took office, (the expectations!), they then went much higher, so it is not clear if they will have some huge rally even after an agreement is reached.
All this is one more reason for investors to only invest money they do not need, and to live well below their means, all the time, a wise advice that was not well received by some here last time I gave it. They can ignore it at their own peril.
In other news, I had my first swim along the coast here yesterday. I have never swam so early in the year, and expected the water to be quite cold, but it was not. A few others were in the water too. I try to start my season on the Monday after Easter Sunday. Next year ES will be April 12, 10 days earlier almost. There seems to be a noticeable rise in water temps here over 20 years ago, when I started my swims on May 14, 2007 (a Monday), right after a one-week trip to Poland, invited by the Warsaw U of Tech, and could not tolerate the water right after I arrived, but did the very next day.
The US accounted for ~14.7% of China’s exports in 2024. If those exports stopped, the Chinese economy would be hurt badly, but US consumers would be hurt even more.
Not even close. The Chinese economy will be hurt vastly more than K-mart and Walmart Shoppers. AND it will fall on it on top of its enormous recent problems, overbuilding by tens of millions of apartments that stay vacant and decaying for decades. They just cannot afford the shock. These are not Mao’s days. But as I said, the Chinese are not stupid, they are aware, and after their current theatrics are over, they will seriously negotiate and try to retain their access to the vast US market.
Oh and another thing, most Chinese goods are not even cheap any more, but they are just as crappy as they were when they were cheap. I am not talking about TVs but clothes and shoes and such. There is a chain store called “China Fashion” here which is much more convenient than serious department stores that are two hours drive away round trip, and they recently have doubled their prices (here, not in the US). I still buy their crap, because of the convenience, and it still is crap, if not worse with time, such as their flip-flops, which they used to sell for 3 Euro a pair, and now at 7 Euro they are more poorly made than when they cost 3 Euros.
In a lot of product categories, there are no options to stuff from China. Without Chinese goods, Walmart’s shelves would mostly be empty. Here is a chart of Chinese exports to US and non-US.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-dependence-on-u-s-trade/#google_vignette
I have Crocs flip flops, from Vietnam. They cost 20 USD, but never fail, and I retire them only when the tread is so worn that they are dangerously slippery in the wet. I have a Chinese tube stereo amplifier that is excellent quality, comparable to those from the US costing three times as much.