AD #3384 – Munro Says 4680 Cheaper Than Expected; Experts: ICE Still Dominates In 2030; New Way To Make Lithium Batteries Last Longer

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

AUDI, PORSCHE, KIA MAD AT U.S. EV TAX CREDITS
Audi, Porsche and Kia are hopping mad about the new US tax credits for electric vehicles. That’s because none of their vehicles qualify to get them. To qualify, EVs need to be assembled in the U.S. They also have to cost under $55,000 for cars and under $80,000 for trucks and SUVs. That eliminates BEVs from Audi and Porsche. And there are income caps that probably disqualify most Porsche owners. Unless the U.S. Congress allows for some kind of loopholes, look for the European Union, South Korea and Japan to challenge the U.S. in court because they say the new rules violate the rules and regulations of the World Trade Organization.

FISKER LOOKING FOR MORE U.S. ASSEMBLY CAPACITY
Henrik Fisker isn’t sitting around, waiting to see what will happen. He’s looking for more assembly capacity in the U.S. Fisker’s first EV, the Ocean, will be assembled by Magna in Austria starting later this year. His second EV, the Pear, will be assembled in Ohio by Foxconn in 2023. So this latest announcement suggests that Fisker is looking for a third assembly plant. And that makes us wonder if Magna or Foxconn are looking to add another plant in the U.S.

EXPERTS: ICE STILL DOMINATES IN 2030
Even though automakers will be pumping out dozens of new electric vehicles over the next few years, powertrain experts still say ICE vehicles will be number one by the end of the decade. Automotive Futures surveyed fifty powertrain experts, including 9 automakers and 18 suppliers, about their BEV and ICE forecasts. By 2030 they say BEVs will account for 25% of the global passenger vehicle market, while hybrids will account for 33% with ICE vehicles just ahead of that at 38%. Automakers keep making fuel economy improvements to their IC engines, but none of them are close to reaching the new, stricter federally mandated targets. The experts believe the only way the OEMs will meet the CAFE targets is with the credits they’ll get from selling EVs.

NEW WAY TO MAKE LITHIUM BATTERIES LAST LONGER
Researchers in South Korea say they’ve come up with a way to make lithium batteries last a lot longer. As you know, repeated charge and discharge cycles can break down a battery’s anode and that reduces battery life. So researchers at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, or GIST, encapsulated nanoparticles in the anode with an elastic web-like structure. That prevents the anode from starting to crack and break down. And it doesn’t matter what kind of materials are used in the anode or how it is manufactured. So it can be used on any kind of lithium battery. If you’re really into batteries and want to learn more about this, check out the link that we have in today’s transcript. As many of you know, we always cite the sources of where we get our information and you can always find more details if you want them.

AUTO INDUSTRY LOSES DSRC
A decade ago, the auto industry was fighting to get a piece of the Wi-Fi spectrum for vehicle to vehicle communication. They called it Dedicated Short-Range Communications or DSRC. It was all about safety. Cars that communicate with each other can avoid crashing together. But communications companies sued to keep that spectrum available for themselves, and they just won that argument. An appeals court upheld the Federal Communication Commission’s decision to allocate that spectrum for others to use. But new technology could save the day. Automakers are turning to 5G Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything or C-V2X. And that will replace DSRC.

BRIDGESTONE DEVELOPING SUSTAINABLE TIRES
Bridgestone and Firestone are working on new ways to make tires more sustainably. And its using motor racing as the ultimate test bed. At last week’s IndyCar race in Nashville, Firestone used tires made from guayule, which is a sustainable rubber. Guayule is a drought-resistant shrub that grows in the American Southwest, and Bridgestone grows it at a research center in Arizona. The tires were made at the company’s factory in Akron, Ohio and it plans to test it in more IndyCar races next year. And the goal is to use guayule to make tires for regular cars and trucks by 2030.

AMAZON DOES 430,000 DELIVERIES W/RIVIAN VANS
Rivian is off to a slow start delivering its electric vans to Amazon. But they’re already making an impact. Amazon delivered 430,000 packages using those electric vans in a pilot program that began in 2021. They are now operating in nine cities across the U.S. and by the end of the year it will grow to more than 100 cities.

AUTOMATED SPEED ENFORCEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION ZONES
Drivers are supposed to slow down when they come across construction sites on highways and roads. But a lot of drivers speed right through them. In the U.S. more than 850 people are killed every year in construction zones. So the state of Michigan is working on legislation that will set up automated speed enforcement in construction zones. In Michigan there are over 4,000 crashes in construction zones and 11 fatalities every year. And automated speed enforcement, with radar and cameras, is something that will likely spread all over the country.

MUNRO SAYS 4680 CHEAPER THAN EXPECTED
We had a great Autoline After Hours last week with Sandy Munro. One of the things he talked about is how Tesla’s 4680 battery is a whole lot better than he originally thought. Here’s what he had to say.

“This is less expensive, a lot less expensive than we thought. It’s got a lot more power than we thought.”

Sandy said the battery canisters are thinner than he thought, and that helps energy density. His battery experts are doing their detailed analysis on the 4680 and we can’t wait to hear how much they think it actually costs.

And join us this Thursday when Mike Ramsey, the VP of research at Gartner will be on the show.

And that wraps up today’s report, thanks for watching.