AD #2194 – Qualcomm’s Intriguing V2V Chipset, Nikola Teams Up With Bosch, Who’s Getting Ready for a Drop in Sales?
September 20th, 2017 at 12:02pm
Runtime: 9:00
To watch this episode on YouTube click here.
- Nikola Teams Up With Bosch for Fuel Cell Semi
- More from the Ford Mobility Company
- Sliding Doors on Cars Could Become Common
- Qualcomm’s Intriguing V2V Chipset
- Meet Auria Solutions
- Who’s Getting Ready for a Big Drop in Sales?
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On today’s show…Nikola teams up with Bosch to develop its fuel-cell semi…Qualcomm develops an intriguing chipset for V2V communication…and car sales in the American market could be ready to fall off a cliff. All that and more coming right up on Autoline Daily.
This is Autoline Daily the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
NIKOLA TEAMS UP WITH BOSCH FOR FUEL CELL SEMI
Last year, start-up company Nikola Motors, unveiled a fuel-cell powered Class 8 semi-truck. And now the company has partnered up with the giant German supplier Bosch, to help bring it to market by 2021. Bosch’s eAxle technology, which is a scalable, modular platform with the motor, power electronics and transmission in one unit, will be combined with the fuel-cell system. The overall vehicle controls will also be based on Bosch’s vehicle control software and hardware. The companies say these technologies will help the truck achieve more than 1,000 horsepower and 2,000 pound feet of torque. The cost of the truck was not revealed but Nikola says the total cost of ownership will be competitive with diesels.
MORE FROM THE FORD MOBILITY COMPANY
In another move to transition from the Ford Motor Company to the Ford Mobility Company, the automaker just signed a global licensing agreement with an electric scooter company called OjO Electric. The scooters, which go on sale in January, will feature design elements from Ford’s vehicles and will be branded with the Blue Oval. Back in June, Ford partnered with a company called Motivate to launch a bike sharing program in the San Francisco Bay area, also branded with the Ford logo. And it’s moves like these that shows Ford wants people to associate the Blue Oval with mobility and not just cars and trucks.
There’s a raging debate amongst automakers over the best technology for V2V communication, and that’s coming up next.
SLIDING DOORS ON CARS COULD BECOME COMMON
Outside of concept vehicles, the only time you usually see a sliding door is on a van. But that could change in the future. While giving us a walkaround of the new ID Crozz Concept at the Frankfurt auto show, Volkswagen told us sliding doors could start to become more popular on cars, especially autonomous ones.
(The Frankfurt coverage can only be viewed in the video version of today’s show.)
You can watch the rest of that interview and the rest of our Frankfurt coverage at our website, Autoline.tv or you can find them on our YouTube channel.
QUALCOMM’S INTRIGUING V2V CHIPSET
When it comes to V2V, or vehicle to vehicle communication, there’s a raging debate on which technology to use: DSRC or 5G LTE? DSRC stands for Dedicated Short Range Communication and uses part of the 5.9 GHz band, essentially part of the Wi-Fi spectrum. 5G LTE is the upcoming standard that will be used for mobile phones. In the United States, the Department of Transportation is working on a V2V mandate using DSRC that could go into effect around 2020. In fact, Cadillac already made it standard equipment on the 2017 CTS. That’s the advantage of DSRC, it’s pretty much ready to go right now. But some in the tech world, and China in particular, argue that 5G LTE is a better way to develop V2V. But 5G LTE is not yet ready and is some years away from being ready. So the tech company Qualcomm developed a chip set that can accommodate either technology. And it’s earning kudos from Audi, Ford, PSA and SAIC for doing so. Qualcomm calls it Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything or C-V2X. And it’s developments like this that’s going to accelerate the development of V2V.
Coming up next, are car sales in the American market about to fall off a cliff, and if so, who’s getting ready for it?
MEET AURIA SOLUTIONS
There are so many automotive suppliers it can be hard to keep track of them all. And now there’s a new one to add to the list. Auria Solutions is a brand new global supplier of soft trim and acoustical products. It’s actually a joint venture between the Chinese company Shanghai Shenda, and the supplier called International Automotive Components or IAC, which is based in Luxemburg. Auria will be incorporated in the UK, but will have regional headquarters in Southfield, Michigan, and Dusseldorf, Germany. It will operate 21 manufacturing facilities and four technical centers in 10 countries and will employ approximately 7,000 people. Shenda has 70% of the joint venture, while IAC has the rest.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR A BIG DROP IN SALES?
New car sales in the American market are slowing down and Merrill Lynch predicts that they could start to plummet over the next 4 years. It says sales will drop to 16 million units next year before bottoming out at only 13 million in the year 2021. Merrill Lynch does expect sales to rebound after that and climb back to 17.5 million units in 2025. It blames a tidal wave of off-lease cars flooding the market, causing used car prices to drop, which hurts trade-in values, which increases monthly payments, which causes sales to drop. Over the next four years there will be 5 million off-lease vehicles hitting the market every year. So far, automakers seem to be ignoring this warning. Only General Motors has publicly stated that it can remain profitable even if the U.S. market drops down to 13 million new car sales a year. In fact, GM says it could earn a net profit of $4 to $6 billion a year at that level. Who knows if Merrill Lynch’s forecast will come true, but it would certainly behoove other automakers to explain to Wall Street how they plan to cope with this down turn in case it does happen.
| MERRILL LYNCH SAAR FORECAST | |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 17.0 Million |
| 2018 | 16.1 |
| 2019 | 14.9 |
| 2020 | 13.4 |
| 2021 | 13.1 |
| 2022 | 14.1 |
| 2023 | 15.1 |
| 2024 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 17.5 |
Be sure to join us Thursday afternoon for Autoline After Hours. We’ll have Rick Spina, the Executive Chief Engineer for Crossovers at General Motors in the studio. Also joining us will be Henry Payne, the car critic from The Detroit News; and Stephanie Brinley, an analyst with IHS Markit. That’s tomorrow afternoon starting at 3 pm eastern time, when we go live.
And with that we wrap up today’s report, thanks for watching.
Thanks to our partner for embedding Autoline Daily on its website: WardsAuto.com
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Comments (19)
September 20th, 2017 at 12:23 pm
I like the idea of the sliding door as it looks like entry and exit of the rear seats of the car looks sooo much easier. Here’s the part I don’t get though- so many small and mid sized cars have huge B pillars that make it difficult to navigate your food around yet cars with sliding doors have nothing. So would a middle ground not be to simply make the B pillar smaller?
Oh and while we are at it, get rid of the stupid door pockets that take up the other big chunk of room.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:27 pm
I don’t understand ML reasoning. Wouldn’t a influx of vehicles coming off lease drive more new car sales? Sure a few will buy out their lease but its not like they will turn in their lease and buy a used car.
What it should affect would be those 10 to 15 year old cars being retired for a newer off lease or low price used car if the prices drop as expected. But then again I don’t follow their reasoning.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:33 pm
If Qualcomm’s V2V Chipset works, wow, that would eliminate the Betamax to VHS boondoggle of years ago; while two separate technologies can create competition, it could also create chaos.
I think a big drop in sales could occur, however, predictions to 2025; I don’t see much accuracy in even trying to place a number (on sales) that far in the future.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:35 pm
Love the sliding door. Easier egress especially with really tight parking spots and no door dings. They need to expand like one concept I saw where the front doors slid forward.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:43 pm
As the average new vehicle price increases above the present day average of $33-$35K many will be looking to CPO vehicles as a cost cutting measure. This shift will delay the timeline for the phase-in of autonomous vehicles. I predict the average age of the vehicle fleet will increase from 11.5 years
currently to 15 years and beyond.
Autonomous Vehicle Technology (AVT) will cause many consumers to hold onto their vehicles for longer lengths of time because of the trepidation and concerns related to safety and cost. Collector cars will see a boom in prices in the 10 to 30 years as people who love to drive purchase them for the pure pleasure of driving. Resto Mods will also see increases in demand from this same demographic.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:50 pm
@4 I agree with you Lambo2015 about sliding doors. I like to see them slide half way back for front passengers to egress and full back for rear passengers to egress the vehicle.
Depending on the body style of the vehicle this would be and attractive selling point.
Tesla needs to jettison the “Falcon Wing Doors” on the Model X and replace them with sliders.
This will reduce cost and eliminate snow from entering the vehicle.
September 20th, 2017 at 12:53 pm
Those sliding doors are a great idea. I really like them on my 1989 Caravan.
September 20th, 2017 at 1:31 pm
John I am so confused by ML estimates of a pending sales drop. First, their reasoning doesn’t make sense in reference to new car sales as I mentioned above but beyond that if they want to attribute it to leases ending and dropping even used car prices.. Isn’t the 17M number total car sales which includes new and used? Seems if prices drop for used cars, sales will increase also.
September 20th, 2017 at 1:51 pm
8 I’m not John, but the 17M referred to is new, not new plus used.
As far as cars coming off-lease, I’d think most of them would be replaced with new cars. The off-lease ones would take sales from new, though, further increasing tbe average age of the vehicle fleet.
September 20th, 2017 at 2:23 pm
@1 – it is not easy to shrink or eliminate the B Pillar in a conventional body side. Vehicles with sliding doors still have a B Pillar, plus B Pillar-like structure in the leading edge of the sliding door. If you can peak inside the cavity of a super cab pickup’s rear hinged rear access door, you will see B Pillar- like structure in its forward sheet metal and that it latches to both the roof and floor.
September 20th, 2017 at 2:31 pm
And that B Pillar structure plays a critical role in side impact crash protection (FMVSS 214).
September 20th, 2017 at 2:34 pm
I think the 13 million estimate is wildly negative. You need more than too many used cars to drop 4 million new car sales a year! That’s enormous. Where’s the predicted recession? Sounds like they assume everyone would prefer to buy used but can’t find a car so settle for new?
September 20th, 2017 at 2:40 pm
I’m with ya Kit.I love my sliding doors on my mini ram wonder van.And I have barn doors in the back.Best of both worlds imho.
September 20th, 2017 at 2:45 pm
12 Maybe they are predicting that car nut “baby boomers,” like myself, will downsize our fleets, putting well-maintained, well treated, low mileage cars on the market. Those would steal new car sales.
Now, I’m not too serious. There aren’t THAT many of us.
September 20th, 2017 at 5:51 pm
Did ML take into account all the hurricane flooded vehicles that will have to be replaced? I read one place that it is estimated there will be over a million vehicles that will need to be acquired for those vehicles that are written off, I’m sure some of them will be new purchases.
September 20th, 2017 at 11:49 pm
Unit sales of new car sales because pricing is ridiculous. Preowned off lease vehicles will ship overseas so new car sales in the USA should be stronger than ML prediction.
China sales will remain strong while europes financial crisis could have a negative impact on unit sales.
As electric car sales begin to gather momentum I believe ownership will extend further unless leasing continues as a main method for most consumers…the perpetual leasing consumer will continue but will hunt value subsidized lease deals even more so in the near future.
Companies like GM that are preparing for short term lease deals to consumers and then have a secondary leasing consumer like lyft drivers is an ingenious plan.
Great topic of discussions and I imagine the cuv craze is consumers planning and preparing to own their vehicles longer than ever before.
What makes me suggest this? Cuv s tend to age or become styling dated products much slower than their passenger car counterparts…
Sedan sales are slowing….much like sport coupe sales slowed down and never recovered years back. Why? Because although styling hits as they release. Their appeal and attractiveness fades more quickly …
Sports coupes< sedans< cuv s with regards to how long they remain contemporary from a styling standpoint. As vehicle ownership or vehicles remain capable of use, the slower consumers want them To date stylistically.
Who the hell knows if what I'm saying is true or not…it's really just my opinion.
Some would say it's the space utilization and that's a contributor as well.
Meanwhile cuv s sales rage on. EV cuv s that are stylish will prevail. Chevy s bolt is less than appealing in its current styling iteration in America. Hopefully a GMC cuv version will appeal to the professional grade consumer …unless as has been rumored Buick GEts its bolt derivative…
Just my two cents…great show as always and I look forward to the autoline after hours coming back after a two week hiatus.
September 21st, 2017 at 10:22 am
16 Are many off-lease cars from the U.S. sold overseas? I wouldn’t think there would be much market for mostly expensive U.S. spec used cars other places. I could be wrong, though. John or Sean?
September 21st, 2017 at 10:27 am
When will the CUV craze end? Minivans lost favor, because of the “mommymobile” image. CUV’s would seem to have that, on steroids.
September 21st, 2017 at 12:23 pm
I didn’t understand why VW says the electrics have more room underneath for the large sliding door mechanisms. Isn’t there a large battery array there as opposed to a FWD ICE car having virtually no need to put anything there? I realize the ICE usually puts a fuel tank somewhere around there, but that could be higher, more central, or rearward whereas the battery pack usually takes advantage of the low center of gravity with a low, wide pack.