AD #2702 – Tokyo Auto Show Reveals, How to Convert WLTP to EPA, Analysts Expect Tesla to Lose Money in Q3

October 23rd, 2019 at 12:01pm

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Runtime: 10:12

0:07 Final UAW Contract Results Due Friday
0:20 UAW VP Pleads Guilty
0:47 Analysts Expect Tesla to Lose Money in Q3
1:11 Traffic Deaths Down in U.S.
2:32 FCA Invests Millions to Assemble Battery Packs
3:22 How to Convert WLTP to EPA
4:26 Honda Debuts New Fit/Jazz
5:17 Mazda Unveils MX-30 EV
6:16 Nissan Shows Off Ariya Concept
7:15 Subaru Unveils Levorg Wagon “Prototype”
7:45 Mitsubishi Reveals Two Concepts
8:27 Lexus Unveils LF-30 Concept

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59 Comments to “AD #2702 – Tokyo Auto Show Reveals, How to Convert WLTP to EPA, Analysts Expect Tesla to Lose Money in Q3”

  1. ChuckGrenci Says:

    I’ve/we’ve said it before on traffic deaths; a more accurate number could be had if used deaths/miles driven. Perhaps that is a unwielding number to derive (but I seem to remember that that number is published too). And it is a shame that we (all) have been somewhat callused that such a high number of lives lost still doesn’t get the attention it should.

  2. Buzzerd Says:

    Levorg??? Maybe naming cars with numbers isn’t so bad.

  3. Larry D. Says:

    “…No one really knows why they’re dropping. Safety advocates claim it’s because of better safety technology.

    That’s 100% correct, today’s cars are getting safer and safer and help bad and careless drivers more and more.

    “Police departments claim it’s because of better enforcement.”

    Nice try. Don’t buy it.

    ” And we say these numbers always vary from year to year. It’s better to look at the trend lines, not one year’s results. And the trend lines all point to fewer fatalities.”

    That’s absolutely true, but the question was “WHY”?

    I have one more explanation (could not resist), that the sloppy, terrible, absent-minded, driving and texting and eating and arguing with the passengers, and other types of bad driver, may have been gradually weeded out of the driver gene pool. Way to go Darwin! Natural Selection (or elimination).

  4. Larry D. Says:

    1.121? YOu got to be kidding, you don’t need that level of precision, most of it is ERROR. 1.1 is too low, I suggest even dividing by 1.2 will still give you a very optimistic range. But either way, get rid of the second and third decimal or you are wasting time and gaining NO more accuracy. A good Engineer would understand the above. An Accountant would not.

  5. Larry D. Says:

    1 fatalities /miles driven was ALWAYS been used. More precisely, fatalities per 100 million miles gives you a small useful ratio and most use that. But it so happens that cars have become so much better, even the absolute number of fatalities has fallen, despite a doubling of the number of drivers since the 60s.

  6. cwolf Says:

    Traffic deaths are in decline but pedestrian deaths are WAY UP. Maybe drivers put too much faith in auto technology…much that doesn’t work or not perfected.

  7. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.wardsauto.com/10-best-ux/2019-wards-10-best-ux-winner-video-vw-arteon?NL=WAW-04&Issue=WAW-04_20191023_WAW-04_427&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_5&utm_rid=CPENT000009061197&utm_campaign=22832&utm_medium=email&elq2=77926765998c419f9fa2a516c70c7ef9&utm_source=27131

    Ward’s likes the new Arteon. Just saw the 2 min video. $10k more than the Passat which has more room but a lousy interior.

  8. Larry D. Says:

    6 I BET you have ZERO Data to support that, and the reason you think is true, is the STUPID Local news on TV and their “if it bleeds it leads” style.

  9. Brett Cammack Says:

    2
    Could not agree more.

    re: Fatalities.

    Considering there are half again more people in the USA than there were 50 years ago, and more being added every year, it is remarkable the job accomplished in keeping the rates down.

  10. Lambo2015 Says:

    John; Just curious if you suspect any long term affects from the UAW scandal or will it just result in a house cleaning?

    Traffic fatalities are down. I would speculate that it will continue to trend down for various reasons like fewer drunk drivers because of apps like Uber. Even the poorest of people are now driving cars equipped with airbags as the older unsafe vehicles get retired. Also the newer cars with auto braking features. Plus improvements in highway safety like large shoulders and construction crews using cement wall dividers instead of orange cones. Plus I suppose the traffic cameras prevent some running of red lights.

    Is it just me or does the new Honda fit look like older generation Prius? Not the exact lines but the overall shape.

  11. Phred Says:

    The low fatality numbers in he US might correspond to the increase in traffic and the slower speeds for the “slow gridlock” on the freeways.And no influence from AVs.

  12. Larry D. Says:

    11 AVs do not exist yet, let alone filling our roads.

    10 It is 100% just you. This looks sleeker than the old Fit, and NOTHING like any prius.

  13. Lambo2015 Says:

    It would be interesting to see how difficult it is to get into the back seat of that Mazda MX-30. The rear door doesn’t look very big but without the B-pillar it has to make it much easier. I always have trouble getting my feet out of most sedans as the space between the bottom of the seat and the B-pillar is often less than a foot and it requires you to turn your foot sideways to fit thru.

  14. Lambo2015 Says:

    12 Oh you speak for everyone now. Doesn’t surprise me.

  15. Brett Cammack Says:

    8

    WaPo too small-town Hicksville for you?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/us-highway-deaths-fall-in-2018-for-second-straight-year/2019/10/22/fb07f926-f51a-11e9-b2d2-1f37c9d82dbb_story.html

  16. cwolf Says:

    The formula to convert WLTP to EPA measures looks too complicated and hard to do in your head quickly.
    It is much simpler to deduct 10% WLTP to approximate the EPA equivalent. That’s easy!
    Better yet; to convert WLTP (kilometers) to EPA (miles) just take 55% of the WLTP value.

  17. Larry D. Says:

    Around here, most pedestrians are college students who never seem to pay attention where they are going, as their faces are buried in their STUPID (not smart!) phones. It is a miracle they are not dying like Flies, or at least getting serious injuries from falls (no cars involved). Actually, our town has DRACONIAN Laws against drivers who do not stop for these idiots at any one of many, many crossings, they installed blinking lights when they do etc, all in the last two years.

  18. Larry D. Says:

    14 it’s still you. And Cwolf, tops.

  19. cwolf Says:

    Larry, pedestrian death data was taken from the NHTSA report.
    I try to be accurate and not have to always prove myself to any single person who only believes in ones own imagination.
    I would like to think to have a relatively good “trust value” with everyone….do you?

  20. Lambo2015 Says:

    18 I’ll be sure next time to clarify the question to everyone but you. But thanks for your input this time around all knowing one.
    So does your house have double front doors to get that ego inside?

  21. MJB Says:

    I can’t imagine an electric Maserati GranTurismo having many sales. One of the main reasons to buy a Maserati (outside of the exotic nameplate) is its aggressive exhaust note. Which would be completely castrated once it goes electric.

  22. Lambo2015 Says:

    19 Doesn’t matter if you have facts with actual data if it doesn’t align with the his thoughts. In his mind, that’s all that matters as we have seen time and time again. Anyone who watches AD regularly would remember that John reported that pedestrian accident were up just like a month ago. I knew you were correct.

  23. Larry D. Says:

    21 Another reason to buy a Maserati is if you are a masochist, as they are utter lemons (I know people who returned their Quattroportes and got new ones under the MI Lemon Law.

  24. MJB Says:

    23. Yes, the Quattroportes are incredibly unreliable and problem laden machines.

  25. ChuckGrenci Says:

    23,24 Wholeheartedly agree, yet, when someone asks what you drive, and the people that own them say with pride, ‘oh, I drive a Maserati’; the name still has a lot of cache for those unaware.

  26. John McElroy Says:

    #1. You’re right of course. Here’s the info you’re asking for: “The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled also decreased by 3.4 percent, going to 1.13 in 2018 from 1.17 in 2017 — the lowest fatality rate since 2014, according to NHTSA.”

  27. John McElroy Says:

    #10. I do expect long-term ramifications for the UAW over this corruption scandal. There will be a house cleaning, as you note. But there will be structural changes w/in the union. I also suspect the D3 have chopped out a lot of training money since this was the root of the corruption scandal. Also, don’t rule out a Justice Department take-over of the UAW, which is what happened with the Teamsters union when it was riddled with corruption.

  28. Kit Gerhart Says:

    6,8,15
    From Brett’s linked article:
    “pedestrian fatalities have risen about 53% since 2009.”

    That 2009 starting date more-or-less coincides with the steep climb in “smart phone” addiction.

  29. Kit Gerhart Says:

    1,26 The fatalities/distance data is very useful for comparing relative safety by country. This data is sortable, for the countries that report such data.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

  30. Bob Wilson Says:

    This looks interesting, “MX-30 electric vehicle” but the initial press release doesn’t have a lot of technical specs. A BMW i3-REx owner, this looks like a supersized BMW i3 with a few omissions. For example, no front trunk. But since it is for the EU market, we won’t see it for awhile … darn it.

  31. Kit Gerhart Says:

    30. MX-30? Does that mean it is 6 Miatas? C & D says it has a 35.5 kWh battery, so it won’t have a lot of range.

    https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a29555758/mazda-mx-30-concept-photos-info/

  32. Larry D. Says:

    31 Most likely it means they got it right after 29 failed attempts. I still would not want to sit in that back seat, its back looks like an ironing board, and it probably has no leg room to speak of.

  33. Kit Gerhart Says:

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/10/23/tech/tesla-earnings-profit-sales/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

  34. cwolf Says:

    Congrats to Tesla for their reported earnings. What a surprise! Regardless of their saw-toothed market reputation, they have a chance to continue growth in line with expenditures.
    They really need to keep this trend on a positive note.

  35. cwolf Says:

    27) I agree with John about the Justice Department over-seeing the reconstruction of the UAW and it will be for the better.
    The scandal is greater than what the UAW members can control. I anticipate the contract will be ratified regardless of the negativity of many members who face plant closures. I think Spring Hill workers have a separate beef which I am unfamiliar with. I also believe there are at least 2 or 3 more contracts in the UAW’s future to prepare themselves for EV’s become more dominate. I then foresee more energy to unionize suppliers, more retraining of existing workers towards anything EV related, but most of all a dire attempt to keep manufacturing/assembly within the U.S.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if the UAW didn’t come back stronger than ever in the future. It is vital to the U.S. to keep a middle class alive and the workers inherited rights of fair representation, fair wage, and a reasonable work week become a standard world wide. And without a doubt, temp workers can no longer be treated like dispensable slaves without representation just to control costs. One would think we have bettered ourselves since the civil war.

  36. Kit Gerhart Says:

    35 I don’t know what Spring Hill employees would be upset about. They have products that will stay around, Cadillac and GMC CUVs.

  37. cwolof Says:

    Kit, I used to have a workmate who transferred there, but he retired. I believe the issue is too many temps. I also don’t think there is a good relationship between trades and supervisors. I’m sure you have experienced this before where trades reason why something should be done one way but management wants it done another (often an applied patch to maintain production schedules ). I think their problems are close to what I tried to describe.
    I do know workers at this plant take great pride in making vet’s!

  38. Bob Wilson Says:

    Managed to adjust my PUT price on some of my TSLA before the market opens. Hope I guessed right … $420/share.

  39. Larry D. Says:

    34 You place way too much importance to insignificant short term trends. Musk would be just another average guy if he thought like that.

    I have not even bothered to look at these earnings, if any, yet. They are UTTERLY unimportant for a company like Tesla at THIS stage of its Stellar Growth.

    The ONLY truly successful, high-achieving, American auto company.

  40. Larry D. Says:

    35 you could not be more wrong. I will be HUGELY surprised if the UAW reverses the constant, long term trend of going down the tubes, mainly because of its GREED, but also due to the Corruption of its so called Leadership.

    AND semi-skilled workers that assemble, not even make, cars, are NOT Middle Class, they are WORKING Class, and if you expect them to retain the very top wages and benefits they ever achieved, into the future, you are delusional.

  41. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.autoblog.com/2019/10/23/tesla-third-quarter-earnings-deliveries/

    Just checked them. Not only a profit, (still have not seen how much it was, and neither do I care) BUT, Much more important, RECORD DELIVERIES again!

  42. Larry D. Says:

    Analysts were expecting a loss of 42 cents per share.

    Instead, Tesla posted a profit of $1.86 per share.

    Too bad the stock skyrocketed before Cwolf had a chance to buy some (I still would not, as I would also not buy the stock of any INDIVIDUAL company but only a good mutual fund of an industry I would care to invest in)

  43. Larry D. Says:

    41 Shares of the company shot up 21% to over $307 in extended trading after Tesla also confirmed that it was producing vehicles on a trial basis at its Gigafactory in Shanghai.

    21% is a HUGE rise.

  44. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/ford-q3-earnings-fall-57-amid-restructuring-2019-guidance-lowered?utm_source=breaking-news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20191023&utm_content=hero-image

    as I was saying in 39

    “The ONLY truly successful, high-achieving, American auto company.”

    And it’s sure not Ford, GM, or even FCA.

  45. Kit Gerhart Says:

    37. We had some less-than-stellar relationships between trades and supervision too, but nothing too bad, at least in my experience.

  46. Lambo2015 Says:

    44 Talk about delusional. You couldn’t be more wrong! The ONLY successful American auto company laughable. GM made like 14 Billion over the last 12 months. What has Tesla made? Oh that’s right cars. Seems GM is about 14 Billion higher achieving than Tesla right now. I prefer my horse to lead that race not consider it successful just because it finishes the race. Go run your cheerleading campaign on a Tesla blog site.

  47. Ed Says:

    Tesla door handles on model S. Did they contribute to the death of its driver Dr Awan. https://www.autonews.com/regulation-safety/teslas-futuristic-door-handles-blamed-death-fiery-wreck

  48. Larry D. Says:

    My neigbor bought a new Passat, great looking in white, big, very spacious rear seat, but the cheap TN Interior.

    Walking to the office and crossing the parking lot at the end of the walk, saw my first Ioniq coupe up close, looking fine, smooth, no crazy flares like the Prius (which were also UNneccesary, as proven by the Ioniq getting just as good MPGs EPA as the Prius!), in some blueish color.

    Also saw a ton of domestics, probably popular with poor grad students who grab them used cheap, including several new Jeep Renegades, the poor man’s “Jeep” which is related (and made in the same plant as) that god-awful Fiat 500 Fat “crossover”. The Renegade looks bad, but Lambo will insist it looks better than VWs and Audis. Yeah, right.

  49. Lambo2015 Says:

    48 Again you couldn’t be more wrong. “Assuming” does prove… we all know the saying. The Renegade is some Fiat version of a Jeep and sad one at that. Guess you were never a poor grad student or poor ever. Too bad you might actually have learned what its like to be humble. Oh and your attempted slam at the domestics is hilarious considering cars like MB and BMW lose far more money in depreciation than a domestic. As even you have pointed out how you can pick up an over-priced MB that was 80K new and with a few years on it save 55K. Guess those poor grad students aren’t as dumb as the fools that loose thousands on those cars.

  50. Kit Gerhart Says:

    47 I posted that link, and we had some discussion about that a day or two ago. I’ll find it and post the day/#

  51. Kit Gerhart Says:

    47,50

    AD#2701, starting with post 38,40

  52. XA351GT Says:

    The Levorg looks very much like a Impreza wagon

  53. Larry D. Says:

    49 seriously, you don’t even know the diff between “Lose” and “Loose” and think VWs do not have excellent styling but a chrome laden (more cowbell!) Ram truck Or Jeep Renegade does, and you want me to take you seriously?

    I did not read your entire (as usual) lengthy diatribe, but people with half a brain DO buy bargains, whether they are a $10,000 Excellent (you cannot even dream how much better than your Chrysler 300 or worse, Chevy Impala) E class diesel, OR a used Camry or Accord, for those poor grad students. Where these poor souls made a mistake is byuing used Tauruses and Malibus instead. They barely saved a few hundreds in the purchase price (which is all fools look at, usually) but they will lose $1,000s in repairs.

  54. Larry D. Says:

    53 whether they are $10,000 E classes, or $100,000 Rolls Royce Phantoms or Bentley Mulsannes. (FYI those cost $500k and $1 mill new, with their options) You can always do better used, and the ‘new car smell’ is vastly overrated.

  55. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/10/ace-of-base-2019-hyundai-kona-electric-sel/

    Speaking of ugly styling, another run of the mill BEV with an ugly, stupid grille. Include the rest of the areas it is vastly inferior to the industry standard, and then wonder why, despite being a crossover, it will not be able to sell even 10% of what the Model 3 is selling.

  56. Kit Gerhart Says:

    48 The Ioniq “coupe,” actually a 4 door liftback, matches the mpg of a Prius, but with 6 gears and 2 clutches, while the Prius has one gear, and no clutches. The Accord has extra complexity, but to a much lesser extent than the Ioniq. All of today’s cars are very complex, but when you use such an extreme case of complexity for complexity’s sake as the Ioniq hybrid, I’ll pass, even though it looks better than the current Prius.

  57. Larry D. Says:

    The interesting questions in the BEV sector are

    1. Will the Model Y be as successful as the 3, or even more?

    2. How well will the Rivian EV Pickup (and its cousin the Rivian SUV) do? Will buyers mind its ugly front end? besides Tesla, and some BEV makers in China few know about, Rivian is probably the one BEV maker with the best chances to not end bankrupt.

    3. How soon will Tesla’s CHina Gigafactory 3 reach its full production volume of 500,000 Model 3s and model Ys PER YEAR? Currently, Tesla sells only a few Ss and Xs there, because they are way overpriced there vs the US, on top of being expensive to begin with.

  58. Kit Gerhart Says:

    57 Unless there are actual people who like the looks of the Rivian mock ups, I’d think the appearance might get changed substantially before they actually sell anything.

    I think the Model Y should sell great. It’s something I’d consider buying, even they will market it as an SUV.

  59. Lambo2015 Says:

    53 Regardless of any spelling errors, as if you never have any (cause you have your fair share). I’d rather YOU take me, exactly how I take your comments. With a grain of salt. Your opinion and lengthy posts about your walks to work and trips to the store the cars you see and your past friends in Boston that no one cares about are exhausting to put it best.
    As you can tell by the responses to 57 and Kit doesn’t count because he always responds to your nonsense 1) who cares. 2) Rivian is ugly and will fail because no one has asked for an EV pickup. 3)Probably never or they will hit max capacity in 2020 only to realize they have more capacity than demand.