This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
SENATORS URGE BIDEN TO PICK DATE TO BAN ICE SALES
Banning internal combustion engines is becoming quite the thing to do. Last year, California announced an ICE ban by 2035. And now the state’s two senators, Diane Feinstein and Alex Padilla, sent a letter to President Biden urging him “to follow California’s lead.” They also asked Biden to restore California’s ability to set its own emission standards, which was revoked under the Trump Administration. Shortly after Biden was inaugurated in January, his administration ordered U.S. agencies to revisit fuel economy targets in July and it announced plans to electrify the government’s fleet of vehicles. During his election campaign however, Biden declined to endorse a specific date to ban new ICE vehicle sales.
ANALYST PREDICTS TESLA MARKET CAP TO EXPLODE
Tesla has a market cap of $628 billion, more than any automaker. But that’s nothing. How about a $4 trillion market cap by 2025? That’s what Cathie Wood, from Ark Investment, is predicting. And so far, her predictions for Tesla have pretty much been on the money. She says Tesla will generate $327 billion in revenue a year thanks to Full Self-Driving. And somewhere between $234 billion and $376 billion a year by selling cars. It’s enough to make your head spin. But that’s actually something of a downgrade for Cathie Wood. Last year she predicted Tesla stock would hit $7,000 a share by 2024.
MUSK DENIES TESLA’S USED FOR SPYING
Meanwhile you probably heard that China is banning Tesla’s from military and government properties. That includes banning military people and government employees from driving them anywhere. It’s all got to do with all those cameras on the cars. China is afraid they’ll be used for spying. Elon Musk denied his cars are used for spying and that Tesla would be shut down if it did. But it also looks like Tesla could get caught in the crosshairs as the U.S. and China ramp up their war of words.
Last week on Autoline After Hours we took you on a deep dive into the new Chevrolet Bolt EUV. This week we’re taking you on a deep dive into the Volkswagen ID.4. Our guest will be Hein Schafer, the Senior Vice President for Product Marketing and Strategy at Volkswagen of America. If you’ve got questions you’d like us to ask him, send it to viewermail@autoline.tv or tweet it to @Autoline. Then join John and Gary for some of the best insights into what’s going on in the automotive industry.
LEXUS EQUIPS CUSTOM IS WITH RECORD PLAYER
There’s a history of mixing record players and automobiles and it’s like trying to mix oil with water. Bumps in the road make records skip and don’t even get me started on the distracted driving aspect of it. But Lexus teamed up to make a custom version of the IS, called the Wax, with a record player mounted in the glove box. And get this, it says it won’t skip, even going over bumps. Parts of the player were 3D printed and modified with carbon fiber to make it fit into the glove box. And impressively it still fits a 12-inch record.
JEEP SHOWS OFF ELECTRIC WRANGLER CONCEPT
Easter is coming up, which means Jeep is sending a number of custom machines to Moab. We’re going to focus on the Magneto, a two-door Wrangler Rubicon that’s been converted to run on electric power only. A single electric motor, which was tuned to put out the same power as the 3.6L V6 it replaces, is still mated to the vehicle’s manual transmission. In the lowest possible gear setting, Jeep said it clocked the Magneto at a true snail’s pace of 5-feet per minute. Remember there’s no need to feather the clutch in an EV with a manual. The electric motor is fed by 4 battery packs, one mounted in the front, two in the middle and one in the rear, that combine for a total capacity of 70 kWh. It’s capable of doing 0-60 in 6.8 seconds and still driving through up to 30-inches of water. Jeep didn’t reveal range, but did confirm it weighs 5,750 pounds, which is about 1,500 pounds more than a standard 2-door Wrangler Rubicon. But this is not a production vehicle. It plans to bring it to Moab for the next 3 years to learn more and says, if it ever produces a Wrangler EV, it would have a different powertrain layout.
PHEV WRANGLER ELECTRIC RANGE FALLS SHORT OF ESTIMATES
In other electrified Jeep news, the plug-in hybrid version of the Wrangler, called 4xe, is officially rated by the EPA as having 21 miles of electric-only range. But that’s a bit disappointing. Jeep initially estimated that its 17.3 kWh battery pack would return 25 miles of range.
CHIP SHORTAGE LIKELY TO GET WORSE
The global chip shortage continues to go from bad to worse. Supplies are likely to become even more crunched after a fire broke out at one of Japanese chip maker Renesas’s plants in Japan. The company, which controls 30% of the automotive semiconductor market, said it will take at least a month to get production of its 300 millimeter or 12-inch chips restarted. Toyota, Honda and Nissan are meeting to discuss the impact the incident will have on their operations. But with Renesas controlling such a big chunk of the automotive chip market, it will likely affect companies outside of Japan as well.
GEELY PLANS TO CREATE PREMIUM EV BRAND
Chinese automaker Geely is adding another brand to its portfolio. It currently owns Volvo, Polestar, Lotus, Proton and Lynk & Co and now Reuters reports it will create a premium EV brand called Zeekr. Its vehicles will be built on an open-source EV chassis Geely revealed last year called the Sustainable Experience Architecture. The new brand will have showrooms or “hubs” instead of dealerships and will sell cars at a fixed price. And to form a deeper connection with customers, it will open lifestyle lines for clothing and accessories and launch a car owner’s club, which is something Chinese EV maker Nio has done. The goal of Zeekr is to compete in the high-end EV segment with companies like Tesla, Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto.
That brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for watching and you’ll find us right here again tomorrow.
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Comments (48)
March 22nd, 2021 at 11:57 am
You can take the electric vehicles and shove them up where the sun don’t shine.
ICE forever!
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:09 pm
I remember seeing a 1956 DeSoto with a record player. They called it “highway hi fi,” and it used 16 2/3 rpm records, I think 7 inch. The option didn’t go over very well, and there were probably few records available in the correct format.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:10 pm
That HEADLINE just made my day Cwolf ,Kit G.,Lambo and all those ICE lovers heads must be exploding, I sure would like John McElroy to invite Montana Skeptic to be a guest again, he could give his 2 cents, and while he is there invite Sandy Munro, he could comment on Teslas gaps and Paint finish and tell his opine on Teslas Mega casting machines, maybe these Dinosaurs should view ALL OF Sandys Vloggs in Youtube , his “Munro Live” vloggs are very entertaining and informative.
Tesla is for sure not perfect and they have a lot to learn , but for sure Legacy Auto has taken notice , and and their kees are KNOCKING , Ford engineer one of the latest commenting about Teslas FSD , saying it is “Vaporware”, when they have nothing close to it, even GM SuperCruise pales in comparison as it is GEOFENCED, no driver assist program is continually updated OTA like Tesla autopilot and FSD, it would do John McElroy to find somebody with a Tesla with the FSD update and take a ride with him for a whole day and give us his opinion.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:12 pm
Sounds like Cathie Wood has been drinking WAAAYY too much Tesla Kool-aid!
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:13 pm
#1 Ken , burying ones head in the sand like an OSTRICH does not make the problem disappear, but there’s always a Nokia and Kodak moment.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:14 pm
go away Larry
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:14 pm
4 That’s LarRey.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:24 pm
Great show, AutoLine team! Very informative.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:25 pm
Rey – I am surprised an EV revolutionary like you would mention Kodak… given the disruption that smart phones caused to the film market. If you and LD can use your ears/eyes and mouth in proper proportion, you’ll remember that the people you dis’d in “3” are consistently noting EV market sales growth will be limited by home charging infrastructure… particularly the lack of overnight fast charging at the millions of apartments and condos, not to mention the shaky state of affairs in our electric grid (capacity and remaining reliance on dirty sources). They are not anti-EV.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:26 pm
3 So did you have anything of value to add to the comment section or just another Tesla cheerleader that loves to spout about the stock value. You obviously love Tesla and the Chinese cars yet haven’t gone as far as to buy one. Kind of sends a mixed signal. lol
Just another youngin with lots to learn.
So what happens when you take the electric Wrangler into 31″ deep water?
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:34 pm
There has never been any reason to ban ICE. If EVs get good enough, ICE will go away on it’s own, like steam cars did. Part of that of course will include raising the price of gasoline to reflect CO2 cleanup costs if CO2 cleanup ever starts. Also, where is the road tax going to come from when there are not ICEs. Is there going to be a tax on home electricity when that is where you charge your car? Asking for a friend.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:42 pm
You know, you really have to love politicians. They want to make a splashy announcement, so they pull a date out of their rear end and put it into law. Where is the detail plan on how to get there by that date? There isn’t one. Where is the money? Well since there is no plan, no one knows if it is even feasible to get there by the date, no one knows how much it will cost, and so there is no money. Prices keep going up much faster than inflation. More and more people get priced out and can not pay, so we setup a program to subsides them. So you know who pays, its you and me and our children.
California has a long history of making unrealistic EV sales requirements and then having to walk them back because they could not be met. Diane Feinstein and Alex Padilla should drink Kool-aid.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:43 pm
2%, still 2%; it’s going to be a while. BEV’s are now available (multiple manufacturers) but still not the beginning of any exponential growth. Whatever comes will come, but how does that saying go: something about “molasses in January”. In the end it will be market driven.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:45 pm
11 Several US states already have an EV “surcharge” which, in a number of cases, amounts to more than the average ICE user would pay in state gas tax. I would hope that, when there are more EVs on the road, systems will be enacted to measure the number of miles driven. There would be a number of ways to do that, but they wouldn’t be completely “cheat proof.”
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:46 pm
With Geely looking to start an up market EV brand (isn’t Volvo and Polstar up market?), I wonder if they would consider buying Jaguar? Jaguar is going all EV all the time and they wouldn’t have the work of starting an all new brand, there saving a great deal of money. With the market turning to SUV’s and CUV’s, doing more Jaguar crossovers at JLR, could/would eventually have them butting heads with Land Rover. At Geely, however, they woukd be free to embrace that type of vehicle without restriction. With the latest announcements from Jaguar, it looks like they will be a much smaller brand with fewer products and, IMHO, it seems that they are just preparing the marque to be sold, with all of the mix messaging they have been sending.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:55 pm
Oh good lord. The TESLA bots are at it again. Time to mute ALD for a while until this is sorted.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:55 pm
12 Without California’s leadership, cars might still have tubes venting crankcase smoke from the underside of cars.
I agree, though, that they have made some unrealistic rules they’ve had to back down on, banning ICE sales in 2035 might be another one, but they’ve also forced some much need changes that have been adopted nationally, and globally, like serious emission controls.
March 22nd, 2021 at 12:56 pm
#9 drew, batteries are improving as we speak, today we use technology and super computers to do R&D and do virtual forecasting on their lifespan and other things, it might take a few years to get there , but rest assured that improvements come, just a few yrs ago we thought we’d never see a $6000 battery pack as the Tesla mod S packs cost around $15,000-$20,000, in my neighborhood and new Apartments and Condos now have Chargepoints, many Walmarts and Whole Foods have chargers too, Hydrogen is DOA asthe infrastructure, will never scale and be funded, Toyota can’t even sell their FOOLCELLS and lowered the lease by $20,000,So that leaves us with BEVs and many are fine with that, Hybrids and PHEVs are a stepping stone to BEVs but will soon die , notice GM killed the Volt , which was not a bad car, but had the wrong body, but GM it looks like will go BEV en eventually, I think they realize that having two powertrains are DUMB. Getting to BEV from ICE is going to be a long road for Detroit, VW might have a better chance, Dealers are often going to be the stumbling block, maybe that is one reason Starups like Lucid and Rivian are sometimes more valued than GM and Ford
OH Sean has to correct his statement Cathy was right and dead on about TSLA the price was correct because the if you take into account for Presp,it the price is dead on, Today TSLA is trying @ $ 680-$ 690, the stock will be $1000-$1200 in one year, please clip this, PASTE IN YOUR MIRROR, and we will revisit next year, OK?
March 22nd, 2021 at 1:21 pm
@18 – VW’s head first dive into EVs is not purely the result of their vision for the future, but a survival agreement with all the government entities… that being agreements to spend $billions on EVs in lieu of $ billions on diesel emission cheating fines. Yes, some fines were paid monetarily, but much was negotiated as EV investment.
With regard to Tesla’s future stock value, please remember their profits are presently coming from selling emission credits. As more OEM build their own EVs, they won’t be knocking on Tesla’s door for credits.
Can FSD subscription pick up the gap? Time will tell. For me, I abhor Elon’s business practice of using his customers and the rest of society as his beta testers (guinea pigs)… in his zeal to bring immature technology to market. It is irresponsible.
March 22nd, 2021 at 1:25 pm
I worked in the environmental field for years. When it came to transportation we all felt that a transition away from ICE would occur naturally due to development and infrastructure. Banning is an artificial target that sets a bar, nothing more, nothing less. We’ll have mixed power sources for decades to come, but in any case, we’ll get to a cleaner future. As in the past, politics and practical inroads will each have their place. We have both ICE and BEV’s in our garage and each have their pluses and minuses.
March 22nd, 2021 at 1:31 pm
@20 – Well said.
March 22nd, 2021 at 1:32 pm
Rey. Is that you, LD? And I don’t mean Larry David.
March 22nd, 2021 at 1:38 pm
So here is my take on the transition to EVs at least in the US.
According to Google a new nuclear plant can take 5-15 years to build and a hydro-electric plant takes 4-7 years from project notification to the government to completion. So we need about 9 years to get a few more electrical plants built and another 10 years to upgrade the transmission lines and power grid. By that time charging stations should be more widely available and at least new homes will have at a minimum 200amp service. Yet millions of homes in America will still need upgrades and new electrical panels to handle charging a couple EVs. Because most every home has two or more cars so you cant just have capacity to charge a single EV. You will likely need to charge at least two cars and possibly at the same time.
So even if everyone today started to work towards electrifying America’s automobiles we are about 20-25 years away from being able to support that effort. so 2040 or 2045 at the earliest and not everyone is on-board now so it will push it out even further. IMO.
So companies can try and push EVs and governments can try and regulate and restrict ICEs out of existence but without a plan to support the technology it wont happen as rapidly as they think.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:00 pm
The revenue projections for Full Self Driving seem severely overinflated to me. Many people use their EVs for commuting. How many are going to want to pay a hefty monthly fee so the car can drive itself – while you monitor it. That isn’t full self-driving. The revenue projection for monthly subscriptions Sean mentioned were nearly the same as the revenue from new vehicle sales. That doesn’t really pencil when the cars are $45k and up.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:05 pm
22 – Good thinking Lambo. In addition, current vehicle production and sales are roughly 15-17 million per year in the US. At that rate, even if they all become EV sales, it will take 20 years plus to turn over the national fleet of vehicles which currently hangs around 300 million. During that transition timeframe we should be able to ramp up more power generating capacity, upgrade the grid to handle it, and upgrade home charging and public charging as needed.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:07 pm
All a ban on new ICE vehicles means is people will hold on to older dirtier vehicles longer. EV isn’t the be all end all for everyone. Unless they plan on putting charging stations on every street like parking meters . What do they expect people that live in apartments or only have on street parking to do for charging ?
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:10 pm
The other reason Tesla will never reach that stock price prediction is . . . competition. Right now, there are few EV choices as good as Tesla. In two years, there will be many, and from a wide variety of established brands. When other good choices are available, Tesla sales will suffer. And the Semi and the CyberTruck won’t change those prospects. Be prepared for an emergency restyling of the CyberTruck and a name change to address the rapid falloff in sales after the rabid Tesla fans have snapped up the initial production.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:15 pm
Lexus is focusing on phonographs and Jeep brings us plug-in hybrids…
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:15 pm
# 22, lambo just read headline today , Iowa is closing it only nuclear plant and installing Solar Field in p,ace , looks like the damage in 2018 would cost too much to repair and it is old read it today in Electrek, the future is microgrids and virtual powerplants, Tesla powerwalls Megapacks as used in S Australia’s Hornsby Megapack installation, Google can help SCHOOL YOU, It is OK to hate, but the world is moving on slowly, sometimes in Elon time, sometimes with the “Speed of Thought”> Sandy Munro.call me a Fanboi , its
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:16 pm
# 22, lambo just read headline today , Iowa is closing it only nuclear plant and installing Solar Field in p,ace , looks like the damage in 2018 would cost too much to repair and it is old read it today in Electrek, the future is microgrids and virtual powerplants, Tesla powerwalls Megapacks as used in S Australia’s Hornsby Megapack installation, Google can help SCHOOL YOU, It is OK to hate, but the world is moving on slowly, sometimes in Elon time, sometimes with the “Speed of Thought”> Sandy Munro.call me a Fanboi , its
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:24 pm
17. Kit, you totally misunderstand my position. I believe in reducing emissions and climate change, but we need to do it at pace where we are not pushing people into poverty or homelessness. Lets face it, all the people making these decisions are not living pay check to check.
If we use California as an example of the future, you will find some of the highest income taxes in the nation, some of the highest sales taxes, the highest gas taxes, electricity costing twice as much as the rest of the country, some of the highest DMV fees, major companies are leaving, and more and more people becoming homeless.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:26 pm
22 The fastest growing electricity generating sector in the US is renewable, wind and solar. That’s great, but to be a true replacement for other sources, there needs to be storage. That could amount to a lot of gigawatt hours, or terawatt hours of batteries to make wind and solar power true replacements for other power sources.
As far as in-home charging, for the ~70-75% of Americans living in houses, it wouldn’t take much for a “commuter” car for most people. The average commute is about 30 miles total per day. If your car will be at home for 12 hours a day, likely for most people, you can get about 50 miles of charge with a plain old 120 volt outlet. That outlet is already there in most garages. Yeah, if your car is away from home most of the time, if you drive a lot, etc., you’d need a 240 volt outlet, or a high rate DC charger for extreme cases.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:28 pm
What happened to using periods in punctuation?
I think the future power system in our country will be more diversified than it is now and will produce power in a variety of ways best suited to geographical areas, including solar, wind, hydro, natural gas, nuclear and for a while yet, coal. No “one size fits all” solution.
I don’t think Elon has all of the answers. But there are consortiums working on this problem with representatives from all industries concerned, to make sure the solution will be viable and will provide for our needs for the next 100 years.
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:32 pm
31 I agree. We need a national approach to certain things, but that seems hard to come by. Yeah, California is hurting themselves in certain ways in going overboard in their efforts to “lead.”
March 22nd, 2021 at 2:48 pm
Stop the insanity. Make the bad man stop. Banning ICE? More liberal lunacy. There is no way the infrastructure will ever catch up. Nor can America afford it. What does it take to slap you EV huggers awake? And climate change? Another hoax foisted upon America alone. When will the rest of the world comply? Never.
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:16 pm
30 That doesn’t surprise me as regulations have just about killed nuclear power. The plants take 10 to 20 years to become profitable and typically only licenced for 30 years. They have become a bad investment.
Not sure why your so arrogant but that’s why people assume your LaRRey. He also capitalized words like you do and talked to everyone like they need schooled.. You’ll find many well versed folks here in a variety of subjects other than just Tesla that probably have forgotten more than you’ll ever know. I little humility can go a long way.
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:33 pm
28 Lexus is going after the nostalgia market with the phonograph, to be like a ’56 DeSoto. I think it was available, briefly, in all Chrysler cars, but was expensive, unreliable, and the only titles offered were Columbia, and not all of their stuff.
36 As a kid in the 1950s, I remember reading in Popular Science or similar magazines how nuclear power would become so cheap that they’d just run the wires to all of the houses and businesses, and wouldn’t bother to meter the power. It didn’t work out that way.
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:40 pm
@23: that makes a lot of practical sense to me, well put.
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:49 pm
@35: “And climate change? Another hoax foisted upon America alone. When will the rest of the world comply? Never.” Upon America alone? Everybody but the U.S. is working on this under the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
A fundamental issue which has to be agreed upon is the developing world, among which the main players China and India. Since 80% of the cumulative CO2 emissions have been caused by the Western industrialized nations plus Japan, the developing countries’ argument is that we have to cut them some slack, along the lines of “you have built your wealth through 140 years of carbon emissions, and it would be unfair if we would be denied the opportunity to build a certain level of prosperity before we curb our CO2 emissions.”
A highly complex issue to be resolved, especially in light of the huge population sizes of China, India, Indonesia (270 MM), Pakistan (230 MM) and Nigeria (200 MM).
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:49 pm
32 should reference 23, not 22. The numbers changed while I was typing.
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:50 pm
@40: moving targets
March 22nd, 2021 at 4:06 pm
41 Yeah, they move sometimes.
39 Great post. Definitely a complex issue with China, India, and the other countries you mentioned with huge populations. China’s electricity usage about doubled between 2008 and 2019, with the growth in industry, increased use of air conditioning, etc., and for now, a lot of it is produced by burning coal.
March 22nd, 2021 at 4:19 pm
@42: exactly. They have had years of 6-8% annual GDP growth, so the doubling of electricity usage is in line with that. One of teh fundamental questions is how much economic development is fair? Measured in which dimension? In GDP growth achieved, in GDP per capita, in a number of years of runway, etc.? And how to determine these levels for China, India, Indonesia, etc., which have all different situations and levels of prosperity? As I mentioned earlier, these are hugely complex international issues with have to be resolved. We need highly qualified and knowledgeable negotiators on our behalf, and IMHO the current U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate is not that.
March 22nd, 2021 at 4:21 pm
@43 I will try once more without typos
@42: exactly. They have had years of 6-8% annual GDP growth, so the doubling of electricity usage is in line with that. One of the fundamental questions is how much economic development is fair? Measured in which dimension? In GDP growth achieved, in GDP per capita, in a number of years of runway, etc.? And how to determine these levels for China, India, Indonesia, etc., which have all different situations and levels of prosperity? As I mentioned earlier, these are hugely complex international issues which have to be resolved. We need highly qualified and knowledgeable negotiators on our behalf, and IMHO the current U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate is not that.
March 22nd, 2021 at 8:27 pm
37 Another not-so-accurate prediction by Popular Science regarding nuclear power.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/19322743838/in/photolist-oYsLJP-Eiumvc-6Z84ch-c4w1sE-7upxk3-7epBGd-7in4hV-9sjBAr-vru7xQ-7witeh-6XHVMu-7FpkLL-8GfAHb-pnMRzN-HVaqFY-6XDDEm-7ppGxZ-6XHVJY-7hdqQy-SdWrkw-8EMo7B-8VbKgP
March 22nd, 2021 at 10:10 pm
i remember my friends early 60s pontiac had a 45 rpm record player in the glovebox.
March 23rd, 2021 at 6:21 am
Test, test.
If there ever was a vehicle ideally suited to true hybrid propulsion, it would have to be the Wrangler. Magneto is a great name, but that drivetrain should remain a one-off.
March 23rd, 2021 at 9:23 am
There is little doubt the ICE will be around for years to come. I just can’t comprehend why manufacturers have given up on cars for over-loaded and costly trucks and suv’s. The argument that cars are unprofitable is nonsense because the Asians seem to be doing OK, just not as profitable, perhaps. Maybe just not as greedy as those in the truck market. I find it unfortunate the hefy truck profits are used to bankroll the move towards electrics when the market share stagnates at 2%. I think the Asians, like Toyota, have a more realistic view and as a result have offerings that are more affordable or aimed towards more simple transportation the customer asks for. Just my 2 cents.