AD #3107 – Oshkosh To Build Postal Vehicle In 2023; Analysts at Odds Over BEV Sales; Honda Changes Its Mind on BEVs

June 23rd, 2021 at 11:58am

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Listen to “AD #3107 – Oshkosh To Build Postal Vehicle In 2023; Analysts at Odds Over BEV Sales; Honda Changes Its Mind on BEVs” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 10:07

0:08 Analysts at Odds Over BEV Sales
1:04 Oshkosh To Build Next-Gen Postal Vehicle In 2023
1:53 Some Used Trucks Selling for More Than Original MSRP
3:44 Toyota & May Mobility Offer Autonomous Rides in Indianapolis
4:21 VW Says AV Tech Will Transform Vehicles More Than EVs
4:51 Mobility Provider Rejects VW Offer
5:28 Honda Changes Its Mind on BEVs
6:46 New Geely SUV To Use Intelligent Cockpit System
7:17 Ocean Floor Rocks Contain Metals Needed for EV Batteries

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28 Comments to “AD #3107 – Oshkosh To Build Postal Vehicle In 2023; Analysts at Odds Over BEV Sales; Honda Changes Its Mind on BEVs”

  1. MJB Says:

    Another good show today.

    Is it just me, or does that new mail truck front end look like a canine? I know the low hood and front engine is both practical and functional (maintenance and driver visibility), but MAN is that front end ugly!

    Great find on the ocean floor EV battery metals. That looks very promising.

  2. Lambo2015 Says:

    We are going to be pushed dragged and forced into EV adoption because there are a couple good reasons keeping the general public from voluntarily buying EVs. I mean its June. which means the 2022′s are a month away. That leave 8 years for EVs to absorb another 22% of sales. That’s almost 3% increase each year and its taken almost 10 years to get to 3%.
    Yeah yeah! there are a lot more choices coming and players in the EV market but I will be surprised if EVs make up 20% of the market by 2030. That global cause I bet in the US EVs will only be 15% by 2030. IMO

  3. JR Says:

    So are we really going to mine valuable minerals from the ocean floor this time, or did some country loose a submarine again?

  4. dave Says:

    or another CIA coverup sounds very close to when I was scammed by popular science in the 60s

  5. Lex Says:

    Why does the US Postal Service need a purpose built Postal Vehicle? Why isn’t the US Postal Service using basic light trucks like the Ford Transit and Voyager Minivan with simple retro fitting or customization to aid in the mail carriers delivery needs? It seems like a huge waste of taxpayer money IMHO.

  6. Lambo2015 Says:

    Another obstacle getting EV adoption to 25% is that 20% of EV owners in California switch back to ICE after owning an EV.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-owners-switching-gas-charging-a-hassle-study-2021-4#:~:text=1%20in%205%20electric%20vehicle,is%20a%20hassle%2C%20research%20shows&text=Roughly%2020%25%20of%20electric%20vehicle,was%20the%20inconvenience%20of%20charging.

  7. Lex Says:

    These guys are going to mine the ocean bottoms and kill off the vegetation that lives there in the process.

    This mining process will kill off this vital vegetation which produces the bulk of the oxygen needed to keep the oceans alive and thriving. This is a BAD IDEA!

  8. ChuckGrenci Says:

    Those ‘rocks’ are almost three mile down, and I may be a little skeptical that they are in the abundance that the illustration shows. We’re not talking easy-peasy, though if they can be mined economically, it just might prove to be win/win.

    The percentages that are being predicted, for the electric revolution, would be a whole lot more believable if BEV’s could compete better on value; still disproportionally more expensive for what you get. They still are ‘statement’ vehicles; even for the newer offerings. Make them so buyers want them, not pushed to.

  9. ChuckGrenci Says:

    @7, Lex; not light/no vegetation at the depths mentioned in the article.

  10. Alex Borenstein Says:

    a 2019 Toyota Tacoma SR for $33,000

  11. MJB Says:

    7. Not everything man does on the planet produces harm to some other life. I think we’ve all seen enough Jacques Cousteau to know there’s no significant vegetation at the bottom of the abyssal zone.

    In fact, here’s a brief quote from the Encyclopedia Britannica on the matter: “Abyssal life is concentrated at the seafloor, however, and the water nearest the floor may be essentially depleted in oxygen.”

  12. MJB Says:

    11 cont. the lack of oxygen is evidence that there can be very little plant life, if any at all. Certainly not enough to contribute to oxygen production for the planet.

  13. Sean Wagner Says:

    Some perspective: EVs are now at 1% of all cars on the road globally.

    Quote: Just over 44% of all the EVs are in China, and about 35% are in Europe. North America is a distant third at around 17%; the rest are spread out in other markets, including South Korea and Japan. Unquote, source Bloomberg BNEF (June 9, 2021).

    Did anyone predict that 10 years ago? Certainly not I! By the way, Elon Musk has been saying for a while now that by usage, Ni is the most important metal for batteries.

    About that Model S Plaid… and getting a feeling for the car before going gangbusters:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/o6271y/model_s_plaid_randy_pobsts_morning_commute_at/

  14. Alex Carazan Says:

    BEV SALES: USA sales of BEV’s were only 1.6% in 2020. Current selling rate is 2.0%. Despite EV’s available in market for over a decade now. EV’s like Leaf and Bolt have horrible sales. Tesla is niche luxury performance high tech brand which owns 75% of EV share in USA. The reason why EV’s have not and will not grow in USA is simple…they are higher cost, lower range, long charge time, little charge infrastructure, low segment availability, and they force users to deal now with a charge cord almost daily! Sorry family no long family trips in our new $75,000 EV!! The ONLY reason EV’s are taking off in EU and China is by forced government mandates, NOT because the people want EV’s. For many years now industry “experts” keep saying EV’s are going to take off in USA. No they are not. They have not. It is business 101. Learn customer/consumer needs and work to satisfy them. EV’s do not satisfy 98% of consumers. The idea of OEM’s and “analysts” pushing for government mandates and taxpayer subsidies of EV’s is contrary to free market economics of USA and American values. Communist controlled China and Socialists in EU gladly control their populations. Do American consumers want technology forced or pushed onto them?

  15. Lambo2015 Says:

    Annual vehicle sales globally is something like 70 Million. To achieve 25% by 2030 would mean they need to sell 17.5 Million EVs per year.
    Can we even make that many batteries per year?

  16. Danny Turnpaugh Says:

    That makes truck reminds me a little of a freight liner school bus the grill area and big windshield

  17. Sean Wagner Says:

    15 Lambo – I don’t know. It’s certainly the right question to ask. New mines usually take 5-7 years to develop their full production potential, according to the experts at benchmarkminerals.

  18. Scott-in-Cleveland Says:

    5 Lex – USPS is currently using Mercedes Metris vans for delivery purposes, I saw one in Garfield Hts., a suburb of Cleveland, OH. They even replaced the MB star on the grill with the USPS eagle logo. Not to mention the RAM Promaster vans they use.

  19. Kit Gerhart Says:

    When “at home” charging is available for apartment and condo dwellers, BEVs will be much more attractive to tens of millions of people in the U.S.

  20. Kit Gerhart Says:

    18 Do they use RHD vans, normally sold in other markets?

  21. Kit Gerhart Says:

    13 There’s a lot of lithium in sea water, but at 0.2 PPM concentration, it might not be cost effective to extract any time soon.

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-06/kauo-ech060321.php#:~:text=KAUST%20researchers%20have%20now%20developed,parts%20per%20million%20(ppm).

  22. Kit Gerhart Says:

    There’s nickel in sea water too, but only 0.5-2 ppb, so that would be really hard to extract commercially any time soon.

  23. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    5) I assume that the commercially available products have too high maintenance costs. I know that the amazon delivery vans usually can’t make it past 1 year without being replaced. That is why they always look new.

    My neighbor runs a fleet of amazon vans and they are scrapped due to maintenance issues every year despite the relatively low mileage. Failed engines/transmissions are very common in his amazon fleet regardless of manufacturer. The drivers of these types of vehicles are not gentle on the throttle with every stop and go cycle. It is like they are perpetually on a drag strip for the entire vehicle life.

    USPS vans must last for over 20 years of 100s of daily wide open throttle launches just like the old LLVs lasted under those conditions. I do not know of any commercial offering that can do this for that length of time. Thusly you have this vehicle which is purpose built for this type of use. All the other features these USPS vans have are added benefit but of secondary importance to the reliability concern.

  24. Lambo2015 Says:

    23 With electronic throttle and electronically controlled transmissions it seems that controlling the acceleration and driving habits could be somewhat restricted for the sake of longevity. If I were in charge of the Amazon fleet I would be looking to a manufacturer to provide some special ECM programming that could help save the engines and transmissions of my fleets. They can restrict the acceleration without reducing power. Need to take advantage of all these electronics.

  25. Kit Gerhart Says:

    The main part of the Grumman mail trucks that is “long life” is the bodies. Some of them have GM “iron duke” engines, which were not good at all. Later LLVs have GM 2.2 fours which are pretty good, at least from my experience, but after 30 years, a lot of powertrain parts would have been replaced.

  26. SparkeyN Says:

    For the uninitiated, JR and dave are referring to a brilliant disinformation campaign conducted by the U.S. during the cold war. Howard Hughes was enlisted to “float” a cover story about a huge project to mine manganese nodules from the ocean floor. Who would suspect anything “fishy” about the reclusive Hughes restricting access to the project. The U.S. was actually constructing a recovery vessel to to grab a sunken USSR nuclear sub and the accompanying goldmine of intelligence data. Darn near pulled it off, too! The story is much better told by Bill Whittle in his excellent and slickly-produced podcast series “The Cold War: What We Saw” https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cold-war-what-we-saw/id1471188269

  27. Kit Gerhart Says:

    23 It looks like Amazon needs to fire a lot of drivers, if they destroy Sprinter and Transit vans in a year.

  28. Earl Says:

    That postal van is front end ugly….almost as ugly as front end ugly of my friends Lexus RX350. But he says it’s growing on him.