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Runtime: 10:07
0:08 Analysts at Odds Over BEV Sales
1:04 Oshkosh To Build Next-Gen Postal Vehicle In 2023
1:53 Some Used Trucks Selling for More Than Original MSRP
3:44 Toyota & May Mobility Offer Autonomous Rides in Indianapolis
4:21 VW Says AV Tech Will Transform Vehicles More Than EVs
4:51 Mobility Provider Rejects VW Offer
5:28 Honda Changes Its Mind on BEVs
6:46 New Geely SUV To Use Intelligent Cockpit System
7:17 Ocean Floor Rocks Contain Metals Needed for EV Batteries
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ANALYSTS AT ODDS OVER BEV SALES
There’s no doubt battery electric vehicles will eventually top the sales charts. But experts are still at odds over when EVs will surpass ICE vehicles. Wards Intelligence/LMC Automotive and Alixpartners, forecast that global BEV sales will hit roughly 25% market share by 2030, which is behind the industry’s target of 35%. That’s partly because they see low demand and BEVs not reaching cost parity with ICEs by that time. However, according to a new study from Ernst & Young, global BEV sales will outpace ICEs by 2033, five years earlier than it previously forecasted. That’s due to proposed ICE bans and incentives to purchase EVs. Who knows who will end up being right but it’s interesting to see such different conclusions from the analysts.
OSHKOSH TO BUILD NEXT-GEN POSTAL VEHICLE IN 2023
More information is coming in about the next-gen mail trucks for the U.S. Postal Service. Oshkosh Defense announced it will build the vehicles at a repurposed warehouse in Spartanburg, South Carolina. It will need to hire over 1,000 workers and production is expected to kick off in the summer of 2023. Oshkosh’s contract is to deliver between 50,000 and 165,000 vehicles over a 10-year period. Ford revealed it will provide parts for both battery electric and ICE versions, including engines, transmissions and suspension components. As you may know, BMW manufactures its SUVs in Spartanburg, so there’s already a good supplier base and people with automotive manufacturing experience.
SOME USED TRUCKS SELLING FOR MORE THAN ORIGINAL MSRP
Used car prices in the U.S. are soaring, so much so that some used models, mostly trucks and SUVs, are being sold for more than their original sticker price. According to Black Book, a company that tracks car and truck data, 73 models that are 1 to 3 years old, sold for more than their original MSRP at auction. For example, a 2019 Toyota Tacoma SR originally cost $29,000, but dealers are paying $1,000 more to purchase used ones. And it’s being sold to consumers for more than $33,000. Black Book says the average price of used cars has increased 30% in the past year. And according to Edmunds, the average price of used cars is nearly $26,500. Inventory levels of new vehicles are low, due to automakers cutting production during COVID lockdowns last year and the chip shortage. And that’s forcing more consumers into the used market. But this isn’t the first time used cars are selling more than their original sticker price. We saw this happen around 2006 and 2007 and it also affected trucks.
TOYOTA & MAY MOBILITY OFFER AUTONOMOUS RIDES IN INDIANAPOLIS
Toyota is teaming up with AV startup May Mobility to provide autonomous shuttle rides in Central Indiana. There’s nine different stops where riders can hop on and the vehicles arrive every 10-15 minutes. It’s free for anyone to use and operates Monday-Friday from 7 AM to 7 PM. The fleet consists of 5 Lexus RXs equipped with May Mobility’s autonomous technology and one wheelchair accessible Polaris GEM shuttle. The service runs through November 19th of this year at which time May Mobility will start operating another AV shuttle service in Indiana.
VW SAYS AV TECH WILL TRANSFORM VEHICLES MORE THAN EVs
In other AV news, despite investing more money into EVs than any other automaker, Bloomberg reports that VW CEO Herbert Diess says autonomous technology will transform the auto industry more than electric vehicles will. Volkswagen is currently spending about $3 billion a year to grow its software capabilities and has deals with Ford and Argo AI and has partnered with tech companies in China. But it clearly wants to expand.
MOBILITY PROVIDER REJECTS VW OFFER
European mobility provider Europcar rejected a $2.6 billion buyout offer from Volkswagen. While it’s more than 10% premium, it felt like the offer was too low. VW wanted access to Europcar’s infrastructure and technology, which includes ride-hailing, car rental, autonomy, shared electric scooters and aerial mobility. With its CEO’s comments about autonomous technology and its interest in Europcar, it suggests to us that VW wants to get into the robotaxi business.
HONDA CHANGES ITS MIND ON BEVs
Up until very recently Honda believed that hybrids were the way to go, not BEVs. But it looks like somebody changed their mind. Now Honda says it will phase out all ICEs by 2040. It’s going to launch 10 EVs in China over the next 5 years, and presumably those cars will also be sold in other markets. It will also come out with 3 electric scooters, and is working with Yamaha and Piaggio to come up with standards for battery swapping. Critics say that Honda is just trying to placate investors and environmentalists. But Bloomberg reports the company had to try to do something different from Toyota, which is still heavily invested in hybrids.
NEW GEELY SUV TO USE INTELLIGENT COCKPIT SYSTEM
Geely’s Xingyue L SUV, which debuted at this year’s Shanghai Auto Show, will be the first production vehicle to use an intelligent cockpit system co-developed by the supplier Visteon, Qualcomm and ECARX, a Chinese automotive technology company. The intelligent cockpit offers features like AI-based voice control, a premium intelligent center-console monitor and immersive driving info and entertainment options for passengers.
OCEAN FLOOR ROCKS CONTAIN METALS NEEDED FOR EV BATTERIES
Ever hear of polymetallic nodules before? Me neither. In plain English, polymetallic nodules are rocks that have different types of metal in them. And it turns out there are tons of these rocks sitting on the ocean floor. So a startup called The Metals Company wants to pick up these rocks which are made of cobalt, nickel, copper and manganese. Those are the key metals that are needed to make batteries and motors for electric cars. We had the CEO of The Metals Company on Autoline This Week and here’s what he told us.
“A lot of people don’t realize that the oceans are full of metals and they come in several forms. There are sulfides and seafloor crafts which we have no interest in. Our interest is focused around these polymetallic nodules. And it just so happens that they form in great abundance in the abyssal zone, which is around 4,000 meters below sea level. It’s an area of the ocean where there is limited life. In fact, if we measure life in the form of biomass there is up to fifteen hundred times less compared to where we’re getting our nickel from in markets like Indonesia at the moment. And everything in here is basically what we need to build an electric vehicle battery cathode, so nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese. So we’re currently going through the permitting process, we’re completing our environmental studies to show the impact. And we saw that the Biden 100-day review, the strategic review, came out to say that nickel is now on the critical mineral supply list, because people have started to realize that, like so many of these other battery metals, China dominates the supply.”
There is a ton of great info in that show about the raw materials needed for EVs. You can watch it on our website or YouTube channel. We also have two experts on lithium and rare earth minerals. It’s a real eye opener, and it shows that the United States has a long way to go to become self-sufficient in these materials.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show, thanks for watching.
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Seamus and Sean McElroy cover the latest news in the automotive industry for Autoline Daily.