AD #3318 – BEVs Hit 10% Market Share in the EU; Using Hydrogen in Diesel Engines; U.S. Inventory Still Falling

May 5th, 2022 at 12:08pm

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Listen to “AD #3318 – BEVs Hit 10% Market Share in the EU; Using Hydrogen in Diesel Engines; U.S. Inventory Still Falling” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 9:29

0:08 BEVs Hit 10% Market Share in the EU
0:45 BMW Reports Strong Earnings
1:45 STLA Sales Down, Revenue Up
2:14 U.S. Inventory Still Falling
3:50 Toyota Says 800v Only for Big Vehicles
4:35 Fisker Teases Ronin EV
5:25 Electrify America Sees Huge Growth
6:45 Bosch Develops Tech for Green Hydrogen
7:27 Using Hydrogen in Diesel Engines

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26 Comments to “AD #3318 – BEVs Hit 10% Market Share in the EU; Using Hydrogen in Diesel Engines; U.S. Inventory Still Falling”

  1. Lambo2015 Says:

    John; is that 40% that “hates” EVs a worldwide or national percentage?
    I personally don’t see myself buying an EV anytime soon but I wouldn’t say I fall into the “hates” them category. I just haven’t been presented with a vehicle that makes sense for me. I’m not willing to pay more to get less. When that pendulum evens out I will consider buying one.

  2. Roger Says:

    I’m paying 23.6 cents pew KW in upstate New York. I will not buy a BEV, no battery car for me!

  3. Kit Gerhart Says:

    My thought on EVs is that they can be great, as one car for multi-vehicle households with home charging available. They can work well for one vehicle households, where the car is rarely driven on round trips beyond the car’s range. Those people can rent a vehicle for the occasional long trip, or the occasional need for a vehicle with more space or other capability.

  4. Kit Gerhart Says:

    1 I sometimes “pay more to get less,” as with a certain car that carries only two people and not much stuff, and which cost about $70K. A lot of people who buy EVs buy them because they like the way they work. Even though EVs tend to be pricey, the long term cost of ownership may be lower than for most ICE vehicles, as long as you don’t need to buy a new battery. If you charge at home, the direct operating cost of EVs is low, they don’t need oil changes, and the brakes last about forever.

  5. Sean Wagner Says:

    AAH is a fount of automotive wisdom packaged in the form of civilized-to-ribald conversation (cough), but I’ll be the one to point out the obvious (the way I understand it) that we’re very far removed from the time EVs make up 60% of sales in the US.

    I confidently predict: things will be different by then.

  6. ChuckGrenci Says:

    Good thing auto makers are making a profit even with reduced sales, as they are bleeding EV development costs, and they need that funding to continue operations.

    It might take a year or two (or three), but I’m still bucking the idea that automakers will continue to run at tight inventories to keep profits high; still thinking that inventories will return to the way they were before the downturn and rebates will rule the roost once more.

  7. Kit Gerhart Says:

    4 Will the world have the capacity to produce the equivalent of about 50 billion smart phone batteries a year any time soon? That’s what it would take for 60% of the US market to be BEVs. Then, there are the tens of millions of cars for the rest of the world.

  8. Albemarle Says:

    It’s worth thinking about the gas station owners. I believe they make little money on fuel sales now. When their gas business starts drying up, so will their convenience store and food business. When that happens, the number of gas stations will drop and ICE drivers will be in the same position as EV owners were just a few years ago – where can I go to get a fill up? Maybe manufacturers will provide ICE software so users can program their trip route to reach a gas station as needed. I just don’t see the two technologies living side by side for a long time.

  9. John McElroy Says:

    #1. Lambo, that’s in the US, where EVs have become highly politicized. It doesn’t seem to be a problem in the rest of the world.

  10. Roger T Says:

    Interesting piece on Diesel engines running on hydrogen. It would be very interesting to see how running costs would be considering the DoE’s aspirational goal of having green hydrogen (from electrolyzers and renewable energy) cost $1/kg. Wonder how far would a truck go with a Kg of H2 vs a quart of diesel.

  11. Kit Gerhart Says:

    7 If all of the gas station/convenience stores close, where will people buy lottery tickets? For my part, I never go in the places, and pay for gas at the pump with a card.

  12. Lambo2015 Says:

    7 Unless the gas stations start putting in charging stations and then people have to hang around for 20-30 minutes to charge up. Then their minimart side of the business will likely do better. However those smaller stations on the corner will likely not do well. The flying J or truck stop stations are the only ones that have the room to fill multiple EVs.
    I still have an old salamander type kerosene heater for my garage but realized this past winter that there are only about two stations left that sell kerosene. So you could be right.

  13. Kit Gerhart Says:

    9 Hydrogen has very high energy density by mass, but not by volume, even with liquified hydrogen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_reactions_(oxidation)

    Will diesel engines run on straight hydrogen, or do they need a little kerosene to get the compression ignition? I’ve read that to be the case with running diesels on methane.

  14. Kit Gerhart Says:

    11 Will the salamander work with diesel fuel, or maybe jet fuel, if you can get it?

  15. Wim van Acker Says:

    @1, 2, 3, 8: 40% do not like EVs. That does not mean that 60% will buy an EV: the EV is only a solution for a part of the drivers. If it would be a solution for 1/3 of the 60%, that amounts to 20% market share. And then there will be a percentage of the 40% which does not like EVs now, in this survey, who will end up buying an EV.

    As much as some of us believe that with an EV they would pay more for less, I suggest to make a complete comparison, including $2,160 of energy savings per year (@12,000 miles/yr and saving $0.18/mile)and $200 of savings on maintenance. All under the condition which Kit pointed out, that you do not need a need a new battery pack. To me it seems that an EV owner has to choose wisely when it is time to sell the EV and buy a new one.

  16. Lambo2015 Says:

    13 Yeah it will work with kero just smells more.

    14 Something comparable in size to the Model 3 would get about 30MPG so 400 gallons a year @ $4 is $1600. But you wont charge your EV at home for free, so minus that cost, means its maybe a $1000 savings each year. However according to Mondays show to install a home charger from Ford its $3900 and likely another 1000 to 1500 for installation. So your fuel savings is offset for the first 5 years to pay for the home charger. So realistically in 5 years I’ll save the $200 in maint each year so a grand. There are many vehicles out there 10K less than a model 3 for the same size so to make up that 10K in need the first 5 years to equal out the charger and then 10 more years to justify the cost of the car. Then I have a 15 year old EV that I’ve broke even and have what? I’m guessing something that worth less than a 15 year old ICE. That’s my view on it.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15 A base Camry has at least the room and comfort of a Model 3, and costs barely over half as much, but doesn’t have the performance. For an extra ~$2000, a Camry hybrid will get about 45 mpg instead of 30 mpg, for an “average” mix of driving. The overall cost of ownership will be much lower with the Camry, but the Tesla is more fun. Even 120v charging would work for most of my driving, if plugged in most of the time I wasn’t driving.

  18. Kit Gerhart Says:

    15,16 A lot of actual cost of ownership depends on how much the car is worth if you sell it. If I sold my Corvette now, even the easy way to Carmax, it would have negative cost of ownership.

  19. WineGeek Says:

    John as the gas prices keep moving up and the price of EV goes down. The market will keep growing. I drive a lot of miles every year if they could find a way to get me a quick charger I’d buy an EV in a minute. My range anxiety is all that is holding me back.

    As far as charging I just looked at Amazon and a level 2 48 Amp Charger is $699 plus installation. I asked my electrician a couple of weeks ago how much it would cost to install a charger and he told me between $400 adn $1,000 depending on how far it was from the electric box.

    Thos numbers are much lower than 15 states. I think it will be the desirability of the vehicles that are introduced as EV. If they all were like the Chevy Bolt then we have a problem.

  20. Kit Gerhart Says:

    18 People who actually have Bolts like them, except for the recall thing. They are quick, compared to similar ICE city cars, and the small footprint is great for parking in tight places.

  21. Sean Wagner Says:

    Yesterday’s AAH was interesting. I’ll take away two things:

    Stephanie Brinley’s observation that both GM and Ford are each doing electrification in a way that suits their corporate character.
    Mike Jackson describing how suppliers can be revitalized across the company by developing new products that fit the electric revolution

    It’s a stroke of luck for the industry that the big names are making loads of money. By the time US adoption of EVs reaches one third of sales, everyone will know more and perceptions will have changed again.

    Watch CA and some countries ahead of the curve.

    Two more things that were mentioned, going to 100% battery electric (obviously) probably isn’t possible, and the coming $30K+ Chevrolet already casts a shadow. And worth repeating how many more EVs Tesla is building and planning to build than anyone else.

  22. Kit Gerhart Says:

    20 It will be interesting to see if Tesla continues to dominate the world EV market, after everyone else is there. Tesla will have an advantage in charging infrastructure for people using EVs for highway travel, but other than that, is there much reason to buy a Tesla over other vehicles out there, or soon to enter the market? Already, the Mach-E and Ioniq 5 compete well with the Model Y, with a starting price of ~$20K less. The Tesla is more efficient, according to the EPA numbers, but the others will catch up.

  23. Lambo2015 Says:

    When you think about Ford Mo Co. two iconic vehicles come to mind. The F-series truck and the Mustang. I think Ford made a good move to offer an ground up electrified version of those two vehicles. All while maintaining their ICE version. The Mach-E is more of a family sedan than the actual Mustang and closer to what is actually selling now with its higher stance. GM has somewhat followed suit with the Silverado and Hummer but just seems to struggle to get a good EV sedan. They know they know they need to get a premium price for an EV so they push the EV sedan to the Cadillac brand. Which I think it may protect margins it just limits sales. I truly could see them launching a BEV Corvette, Maybe calling it the grand sport, and maybe going the same route as Ford and making it a 4 door lifted sporty CUV. While maintaining the ICE 2 door version and changing the name to just Stingray. Will probably be as well accepted at the Mach-e name was that has seem to worked out. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens.

  24. Kit Gerhart Says:

    GM’s mildly lifted electric hatchback will be Lyric, which they made a Cadillac rather than a Chevy, with the hope that they can sell it at inflated Tesla prices. Lyric will be longer, wider, and heavier than Model Y and Mach-E, which have nearly identical dimensions. From what I’ve read, Lyric will be no roomier than a Model Y, so the extra size is for “style.”

    I’ve probably already bought my last Corvette, but if they call a lifted 4 door hatchback a Corvette, they will guarantee that I’ve bought my last one.

  25. Lambo2015 Says:

    23 If Gm would get as much interest in a lifted 4 door EV corvette, as Ford is getting with their Mach-e I doubt they will care if you buy another one. I would expect them to keep both just like Ford is with a ICE mustang and EV mach-e. GM would build a GS Vette EV and ICE stingray. So you may still be able to get one more version of a ICE model. I think it will be around for a good 8 more years barring any huge battery breakthroughs.

  26. Kit Gerhart Says:

    24 It’s too early to know how successful the Mach-E really is, given the low production numbers. We’ll know more when production ramps up to more than the current ~10% of Model Y production. Other currently sold EVs to watch are Ioniq 5 and EV6. Both are getting mostly good reviews.

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