AD #3459 – Honda, Toyota Lose Most Customers to Tesla; BYD Outsells VW in China; BYD Moves Into Mexico
December 1st, 2022 at 11:51am
Listen to “AD #3459 – Honda, Toyota Lose Most Customers to Tesla; BYD Outsells VW in China; BYD Moves Into Mexico” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 8:58
0:00 Tesla Semi Rolls Out on the Red Carpet
0:34 GM Plays Long Game with AVs
1:13 Honda, Toyota Lose Most Customers to Tesla
2:41 BYD Moves Into Mexico
3:22 BYD Outsells VW in China
3:59 Canada Becoming EV Raw Material Powerhouse
4:36 BMW Invests in U.S. Copper
5:53 Honda Puts ADAS on Steroids
6:39 OEMs Need to Commonize EV Components
7:33 BYD Launches the Corvette 07
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TESLA SEMI ROLLS OUT ON THE RED CARPET
After multiple delays, Tesla is finally unveiling its Semi truck today at its Gigafactory in Nevada. Last week, Elon Musk tweeted that they completed a 500-mile drive with a fully loaded truck weighing 81,000 pounds. There’s no word on official pricing yet but back in 2017, the company said it will cost $180,000. But we’ll learn more about the Semi later today.
GM PLAYS LONG GAME WITH AVs
Ford and Volkswagen threw in the towel. They’re pretty much giving up on autonomous vehicles for now. But General Motors is playing the long game. GM Cruise’s COO Gil West tells Reuters they’ll expand into a “large number of markets” with “thousands of vehicles” next year. Some of those AVs should be the Cruise Origin shuttle that will help lower costs. We’ve got to hand it to GM CEO Mary Barra for her long term approach. She says GM will continue investing $2 billion a year in Cruise because she expects it to generate $50 billion a year in revenue by 2030.
TOYOTA, HONDA LOSE MOST CUSTOMERS TO TESLA
Tesla is losing market share as more EVs hit the market. It’s basic math. All market share has to add up to 100%. And as more EVs enter the market, the pie gets sliced thinner. S&P Global Mobility reports that new EV models are eating into Tesla’s share. For the first nine months of the year it had 65% of the EV segment in the U.S. But that’s down from nearly 80% in 2020. Specifically, it’s losing share to EVs priced below $50,000, where it really doesn’t compete right now. But it still dominates the luxury segment with 86% market share. Tesla doesn’t need to worry about losing market share as long as its sales keep growing. And right now, S&P Global says Toyota and Honda are losing the most buyers to Tesla.
BYD MOVES INTO MEXICO
Earlier in the week, we reported that Chinese EV maker NIO plans to get into the U.S. and now another Chinese automaker says it will jump into the North American market. BYD will start selling EVs in Mexico next year, launching with its Tang SUV and Han sedan models. They’ll initially be sold through eight dealers, which will jump to 30 by 2024. By that time, BYD is aiming to sell up to 30,000 vehicles with a long-term goal to hit 10% market share. We think BYD is just dipping its toe in the Mexican market with the idea of moving north of the border sometime in the future. (PICTURED: BYD Tang – Top; BYD Han – Bottom)
BYD OUTSELLS VW IN CHINA
And speaking of BYD, it’s on a tear in China. According to data from China Merchants Bank International, the automaker was the number one brand in sales in November. It sold nearly 153,000 vehicles, up 83% compared to a year ago and it’s the first time it topped the sales charts. That was ahead of the VW brand, which sold more than 143,000 vehicles but if you include Audi, the Group outsold BYD. Even still, this has to be alarming to VW and even GM, which used to dominate sales in China.
CANADA BECOMING EV RAW MATERIAL POWERHOUSE
Canada is poised to become a major source of raw materials for electric cars, like copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. It also wants to become a major processing center for those materials, especially in Quebec which runs mainly on hydroelectric power. For automakers in North America that would greatly slash their carbon footprint for manufacturing electric vehicles. And that’s a key reason why Volkswagen is looking for a site to make battery cells in Canada. Keep your ears open, you’re going to start hearing a lot more about EV production in the Great White North.
BMW INVESTS IN U.S. COPPER
Speaking of critical materials for EVs, BMW is securing the supplies of copper it needs and is doing it in a more sustainable way. The automaker is taking a stake in the U.S.-based company, Jetti Resources, which has come up with a way of extracting copper from previously unused ore. It uses what it calls a catalytic leaching technology to pull the copper out of material that used to sit in dumps and was considered waste. It says around 70% of the world’s copper resources are stored in this type of ore. And Jetti Resources method cuts CO2 emissions from the extraction process by 40% and water usage by 50%.
HONDA PUTS ADAS ON STEROIDS
Honda is rolling out the next-gen versions of its advanced driver assistance systems, called Honda Sensing 360. It’s adding hands-off highway driving, technology to detect the driver’s level of alertness and an emergency support system if the driver is unresponsive. The tech was launched in China earlier this year and will be available in other markets in the second half of the decade. By 2030 it will be standard on all Honda and Acura models in the U.S. After that it will launch a more advanced system, called Honda Sensing 360 Elite, that offers hands-off driving in traffic jams on surface streets, merging onto and exiting the highway and automatic parking in a home garage.
OEMs NEED TO COMMONIZE EV COMPONENTS
There are only 6 automatic transmissions for rear drive pickups and SUVs in the world. And it took 50 years for the industry to get that down to only 6. Even though those transmissions are made by different companies, they use a number of common components. And that gives the suppliers who make those components high economies of scale and low cost. Imagine if automakers would do the same thing with EVs. That’s another thing that was discussed at the SAE’s recent North American International Propulsion Conference. If automakers would use common components in motors, inverters, battery packs and gear reduction units they could get much higher economies of scale. Not all the components would have to be the same. And this could be another strategy for automakers to cut the costs of their electric cars.
BYD LAUNCHES THE CORVETTE 07
Have you heard about the newest Corvette? The Corvette 07 from BYD in China? It’s an ICE-powered 4-door crossover that’s priced between $30,000 and $40,000. So how the heck can BYD get away with calling it a Corvette? That’s because its Chinese name can be interpreted as either frigate or corvette, which is a type of warship designed to escort bigger ships and convoys. Since it uses a Chinese name it probably doesn’t pose any trademark infringement on the classic American sports car. But it sure sounded weird to us to hear about the BYD Corvette.
How is Jeep going to respond to attacks from Ford with the Bronco and from VW with the Scout? That’s one of the things we’re going to ask Jim Morrison this afternoon on Autoline After Hours. He’s the head of Jeep in North America. Roman Mica who runs the TFL channel on YouTube will also be on the show, so join John and Gary when they go live at 3 pm this afternoon right here on Autoline.
But that’s a wrap for today’s show. Thanks for joining us.
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Comments (17)
December 1st, 2022 at 12:54 pm
Seeing how Toyota and Honda don’t make a BEV (No, don’t bring-up the BZ4X!) it isn’t any surprise Tesla is taking customers from them. Come back in 5 – 10 years and see how high flying Tesla is then. The OEMs are in the early days of releasing electric vehicles, and those that truly believe in this technology will gain market share pretty quickly when their line-ups get filled with them.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:05 pm
BYD should have sprung for an additional 0 and made it the Corvette 007 as long as they are stealing names! And who knows, maybe the future Corvette SUV will end up looking like this one anyway.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:35 pm
Not only will EV components become commodity items, but the replacement of ICErs with EVs will result in huge unemployment numbers some places, like my original home town of Kokomo, Indiana. There are thousands of Chrysler employees now making 8-speed longitudinal transmissions and 9-speed transaxles. Soon, they will be building 4 cylinder engines there. Even if they make the gear reduction units for EVs in Kokomo, it won’t take nearly as many people as making the current complex automatic transmissions.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:38 pm
Don’t the Chevy Bolt, Kia Niro EV, and Hyundai Kona EV already share a lot of components?
December 1st, 2022 at 2:10 pm
If the US government is serious about protecting US jobs and companies they need to do everything they can to keep out Chinese vehicles . they will flood the market with cheap vehicles Just like the Japanese did in the 60s and 70s and the Koreans in the 80s and 90s. Ask a Australian about their auto industry or better yet lack of it, because of cheap cars flooding in from South East Asia . Ford , Holden and even Toyota folded up shop because they couldn’t compete financially with vehicles being made penny on the dollar vs, local made ones. What little industry there is left will be gone.
December 1st, 2022 at 2:57 pm
5 The total Australian car market is only a little over a million, so unless they had an export market, making cars in the country would be a losing proposition. Except for low volume “specialty” stuff, there is no way they could compete. They have some business converting American pickup trucks to RHD.
December 1st, 2022 at 5:20 pm
@Autoline Team: what a great Live show with Jeep leader Jim Morrison. Very interesting!
December 1st, 2022 at 6:10 pm
@5 & 6.) I have a hard time seeing Chinese vehicles flood a market with lower priced BEV vehicles, when the EVs they sell in their home market cost just as much as those in the markets they want to break into. While the cost may eventually come do, EV tech today is expensive where ever you are! IMHO, the greater risk is them coming to market with more high quality EVs and more individual choices, before the local OEMs do. Sean has said in a number of shows, that their are hundreds of EV startups in China and I would would imagine there are varying levels of quality in between the different companies. If one of the high end companies like Geely or BYD (while not necessarily startups), where to bring some of the high quality products to the North America, Europe and other parts of the world, with the many different products that they have, I believe they will find buyers even if they have to pay a little bit of a premium for them! While cheap labor/products may have been hallmarks for Vietnamese,Taiwan and Chinese products in years past, such is not the case for electronic, digital and EV. They are just as expensive coming from those regions of the world, as they are from anyplace else! And since they know that buyers will pay top dollar for what build, I don’t see the rationale that they would expect anything less from a business perspective.
The funny thing with the US IRA, it’s amazing how other countries are doing things to make themselves more competitive and how quickly they are doing so! I applaud Canada’s efforts to make themselves more valuable in the EV race. As you can see, it’s not demanding that another country stop an incentive to their citizens, it’s making their country and what they produce/export more attractive and there increases their negotiating power for the products/services/rare earth materials that they have. Way to level the playing field on your own terms Canada!
December 1st, 2022 at 6:38 pm
8 Canada will probably run into some NIMBY issues with the nastiness of mining and processing minerals, but, hopefully, can work things out. The world needs sources for these materials other than China, and operations in Africa controlled by China.
December 1st, 2022 at 10:37 pm
7 The show was interesting, but the Jeep guy seemed to be putting out some BS, like saying that, what, 30-some percent of Wrangler owners drove them off-road. To wit:
“Mark Allen, head of design at Jeep, told ABC News in September 2019 that 10% to 15% of customers take their Wranglers off-road.”
Even that seems high, given that none of the 5 Wrangler owners I know drive them off-road. They just bought them for the “image,” and because it’s fun to take the doors off in the summer.
I wish there had been some discussion about the powertrains, especially how the new “hurricane” turbo six performs, compared to the 5.7 V8. We’ll be hearing more about that, as a lot of the sixes are on the road after the “hemi” is discontinued.
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:50 am
@9 & 10.) I would like to hope that after all this time mining underground, there would have been some breakthroughs and improvements in the process. One that is not so dangerous to the environment and the workers doing the job.
We have a Jeep in our household now and had a Liberty in the past. I don’t even think we have ever parked either of them on the grass, let alone gone farther off road! They are/were my wife’s vehicle and she likes the image too (also she doesn’t want grass or dirt in the vehicles tires and thrown up of the body of the vehicle)! My wife’s she has leased several Jeeps and never taken them off road. Matter of fact, as I think about it, over the past 40 plus years of my life, of all the Jeep owners of my life none have EVER taken full advantage of all the things that Jeeps are capable of, like going off road! The closest thing to it, was a co-work who had a Wrangler two door, which had the big wheels on it and loved to take the top down of sunny days, no matter how hot it was outside. He said that he loved his vehicle, especially with the top down, because it made him LOOK like he could go rock crawling, even though he never would (he was a city boy like me)! They own person I know of, but near met, that took took full advantage of their vehicles capabilities, was another co-worker, years later, who would come to work with the vehicle covered in mud and dirt! She would say that it was because her husband would go off reading on the weekend, but never wash the truck when he was done! They drove a Nissan Xterra, though!
December 2nd, 2022 at 7:32 am
10-11 Off-roading is a risky activity with a $45,000 vehicle that may not be covered by insurance if used on a closed course. I would bet to get anywhere near 30% he was including all Wranglers still on the road. Cause when you go to those places like sand dunes, hill climbs, rock trails most are older heavily modified Wranglers. Yeah the average new Wrangler buyer with a loan and warranty I doubt many take off-road. You always have the few real wealthy folks that take a brand new Jeep dump another 20K in mods and do crazy stuff but I’m sure thats the exception. So yeah Jeep should be concerned with brands like the Bronco and Scout because as far as off-road capability doesnt seem it makes a difference to 80%+ of the buyers. So the image and ability to drop the top and remove the doors seems to be the draw. Actually GM could get in on the action and revise the Blazer with those same features without quite the off-road capabilities and provide a better ride and handling with those same features of a convertible and removeable doors. I wonder if buyers would care that it cant rock climb but gives a better ride and handling as the Wrangers are nothing special in that dept.
December 2nd, 2022 at 8:30 am
My sister leased two Grand Cherokees early in their existence, and then had a first generation Liberty for about 10 years. She now has a MINI Countryman. None of them have gone off-road, at least while she had them.
Most of the Broncos I see are Bronco Sport, which is basically a restyled Escape, with added “character.”
Roman Mica’s description of the allure of “quiet” off-roading of electric EVs on AAH was interesting. I suspect a lot of hard core off-roaders like noise, and remove the mufflers from their vehicles, so the people liking the quiet might be out of luck much of the time at the off-roading parks.
December 2nd, 2022 at 8:42 am
11) Here is a list of all BYD electric vehicles and their pricing. They have a full line up and every single one is very cheap compared to anything produced in the USA.
https://evcompare.io/cars/byd/
If you note though, these vehicles have very slow acceleration times comparable with cars from the 80s. This means that they are using small motors which uses less power and thusly does not need a huge battery for a given range. That makes it cheap. They are designed for city driving with limited top speeds which also reduces power consumption and therefore does not need a large expensive battery. The USA market is not a city driving type of country. Everyone is convinced that their SUV needs to do 0-60 in a nano second and have a top speed of 200MPH. So BYD would have to make these cars with larger motors and correlating larger battery for the USA market. They would probably still be cheaper than traditional US OEMS as they have a lot of headroom in the price, but maybe not appreciably so.
December 2nd, 2022 at 9:44 am
14 I also have no doubt that the Chinese can bring EVs to the US at a cheaper price than Domestics. For One, they have done a good job of preparing for EVs and bought mineral mines and strategically positioned themselves to have access to raw materials. Secondly, they have a lower labor cost and thirdly, they dont have the costs associated with such things as OSHA, workman’s comp, Social security, employee Healthcare, unemployment etc. Lastly I would be willing to bet whatever they bring will not be break the upper half of the list of safest cars to drive.
To your point I dont see many “city only” type cars doing well in the states. Those small boxes that make for great inner city commuting will never be much more than Uber or taxi type vehicles. When people buy in the states they need the capability to get on the hwy and have a safe 75mph vehicle. Not going to happen in those enclosed golf carts. But the BYD Corvette on todays show shows they can do it.
December 2nd, 2022 at 10:26 am
14 Interesting list of BYD cars. It look like many of them would have adequate performance for the U.S., but some would not. A number of “compact SUVs” got 10+ second 0-60 times in CR’s tests.
15 Chinese car companies wouldn’t be paying for health care, because the country has universal health care like nearly every “wealthy” country except the U.S., but yeah, they would be much more lax in employee health and safety requirements.
December 2nd, 2022 at 4:52 pm
#14-16.) My apologies for I am just seeing these posts and you have no doubt moved on to today’s story of AD. I looked at the link of the BYD EVs, yet the prices of the vehicles shown were new from 2018-to-2019. In that amount of time, both Tesla, Ford and Rivian, have all increased prices due to the increase of raw materials, up to as much as $12K in some cases. When you add that increase to those vehicles, even the least expensive model three to four years places it at a point may raise eyebrows! Imagine a vehicle the size of the EcoSport or Traxx, price competitive to the Escape, Equinox, Edge or Blazer! In the EU or UK, that might not be an issue, but in the US, that might give customers pause! My point was, why would a Chinese automaker reduce the price of their vehicles, to sell them in other market, when people know the tech is expensive AND buyers have have not problem paying? When I say this I really mean early adopters. Mainstream buyers may not be so quick, to spend big money on a vehicle to small to fit their needs.