AD #2980 – Lynk & Co Begins Zero EV Prototype Tests; VW Not Giving Up on Diesels; GM Creates 3D Printing Hub
December 16th, 2020 at 12:03pm
Listen to “AD #2980 – Lynk and Co Begins Zero EV Prototype Tests; VW Not Giving Up on Diesels; GM Creates 3D Printing Hub” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 10:04
0:39 Biden Taps Buttigieg For Transportation Secretary
1:04 Hyundai Motor Appoints New Co-CEO
1:14 Bentley, Lamborghini & Ducati To Remain Part of VW Group
1:43 VW Not Giving Up on Diesels
2:13 Hottest Automotive Stocks
3:13 GM Creates 3D Printing Hub
4:33 Lynk & Co Begins Zero EV Prototype Tests
5:15 Chevy Teases Bolt EUV Lighting
5:42 EVs Will Be as Affordable as ICE Vehicles In A Few Years
6:53 Toyota Mirai U.S. Details
7:21 Bosch’s Vehicle Computer Sales Surge
8:02 Volvo V60 Impressions
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BIDEN TAPS BUTTIGIEG FOR TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY
Here’s a couple of names in the news. President-elect Joe Biden is busy filling out his cabinet and yesterday he announced he’s nominating former South Bend mayor and Democratic presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg to head the Department of Transportation. Biden has pledged to spend billions of dollars updating the nation’s infrastructure, including building more EV charging stations and other green projects.
HYUNDAI MOTOR APPOINTS NEW CO-CEO
And the other name in the news is Jaehoon Chang, who was named as the new co-CEO of Hyundai Motor. He had been the global head of the Genesis brand.
BENTLEY, LAMBORGHINI & DUCATI TO REMAIN PART OF VW GROUP
The Volkswagen Group’s massive investments in EVs and AVs led it to slash costs in other areas. But as of right now, that will not include selling off Bentley, Lamborghini or Ducati. There’s been plenty of speculation that they would go on the chopping block to raise capital, and it sure is possible that VW shopped the brands. But this week the board agreed to keep them. It also announced that Bentley will be merged into Audi.
VW NOT GIVING UP ON DIESELS
In other VW news, it may have darn near killed off diesel engines, but it’s still sticking with them. It recently upgraded its 2.0L diesel engine, which is used by many of the Group’s brands, to surpass Euro 6 emission standards. To reach that goal of no more than 80 grams of NOx per kilometer, VW slapped a second catalyst reduction system further down the exhaust. It’s particularly effective under high engine loads.
HOTTEST AUTOMOTIVE STOCKS
The hottest automotive stocks yesterday included the startup QuantumScape, which is working on solid state EV batteries. It was up $6.10 a share, or 10.9%. And Lydall, a company which makes thermal and acoustical materials, was up $16.09 or 10.9%. You may have never heard of Lydall before, but it’s been around since 1869.
GM CREATES 3D PRINTING HUB
General Motors is getting really bullish on 3D printing, so it established what it calls the Additive Industrialization Center to put all its 3D efforts into one organization. The AIC is evaluating different methods and materials that can be used in additive manufacturing. GM has been testing 3D parts on its Corvette race cars, and will put some parts into production on the Cadillac CT4 and CT5-V, including HVAC ducts, a wire harness bracket and the shift knob for the manual gearbox. The biggest advantage of using 3D printing is that engineers can try out different design iterations quickly and cheaply, since there is no tooling that needs to be made. For example, the brake ducts on the Corvette C8.R went through 4 different design changes and the final design was 64% cheaper, took only one week to make instead of 10 weeks, and suffered zero failures. The Hummer EV battery pack was developed with some 3D parts that took 50% less time to make and were 58% cheaper. GM is also using 3D printing to make production tools at its assembly plants. While most of its efforts so far involved plastic parts, it’s also developing new metal alloys to print even more kinds of parts.
LYNK & CO BEGINS ZERO EV PROTOTYPE TESTS
Geely’s Chinese brand Lynk & Co showed off its first EV back in September and less than 3 months later has already started pre-production prototype testing. The Zero EV, as it’s now called, rides on the Group’s new Sustainable Experience Architecture, which will also be used by Volvo and Polestar. The batteries, mounted in the floor, are said to return a 700-kilometer driving range. But that’s based on the NEDC test. It would likely have an EPA range of 300 miles. As you can see, it still looks similar to the concept with short front and rear overhangs and an SUV-like rear end.
CHEVY TEASES BOLT EUV LIGHTING
Chevy is once again teasing the upcoming Bolt EUV. This time it’s the electric vehicle’s signature lighting, which features a sequential front turn signal and LED daytime running light. As you can see, it’s much sleeker than the current Bolt’s headlights and has a bit of a hockey stick look. No word yet if the regular Bolt will adopt this but it wouldn’t surprise us. The Bolt EUV goes into production in the summer of 2021.
EVs WILL BE AS AFFORDABLE AS ICE VEHICLES IN A FEW YEARS
And here’s some good news for EVs. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that shrinking battery prices will make EVs as affordable as ICE vehicles in just 3 or 4 years. Battery prices have gone down nearly 90% in the last 10 years and the average pack for a vehicle now sits at $126 per kWh. By 2023, that will reach $100 per kWh, which Bloomberg sees as the tipping point. And even if prices for raw materials go back up, it will only delay that timeline by a few years because solid-state batteries are expected to start coming into the market. They’re also expected to drag battery prices down, which could be as low as $58 per kWh by 2030.
TOYOTA MIRAI U.S. DETAILS
We’ve already reported on the new Toyota Mirai, but here’s a few specs for the U.S. market that we didn’t have before. The EPA-estimated range comes in at 402 miles, which is a 30% improvement over the last car. It will carry a starting price of a little under $50-grand, more than $9,000 less than before. And every one sold or leased, will come with up to $15,000 in free hydrogen.
BOSCH’S VEHICLE COMPUTER SALES SURGE
Cars are becoming more and more sophisticated and are being equipped with more computers to help run all those systems. And this growth is helping to boost the supplier Bosch’s bottom line. Since last year, the company has won orders for vehicle computers worth more than $3 billion. To help meet demand, it created a new unit that starts operations next month, which will combine its hardware and software engineering for vehicle computers, sensors and control units. And this business won’t slow anytime soon, according to McKinsey, software’s share in the value of a vehicle will rise from 10% today to 30% in the future.
VOLVO V60 IMPRESSIONS
Every automaker in the U.S. has seen sales drop this year, with one exception…Volvo. While its sales are barely up compared to last year, in November they surged 36% on a daily selling rate basis, according to Wards Intelligence. And after the V60 wagon rolled through the Autoline Garage, it’s easy to see why the company has kept its head above water during the pandemic. While the styling isn’t flashy, it’s tastefully done and features a nice premium look. The interior is minimalist with very few buttons in the center stack, most functions are controlled through the 9-inch touchscreen, steering wheel controls or voice command. The V60 we drove is powered by a 2.0L turbocharged four-cylinder engine, an 8-speed automatic and all-wheel-drive. That setup is good for an EPA rated 25 MPG combined and it provides very good, get up and go when you need it. The V60 carries a starting price just over $45,000 but it comes with plenty of options and the one we test drove had a $57,290 price tag. It’s a good option for someone who needs a bit more room than a sedan but not interested in a crossover.
He teamed up with a guy named Darryl Hall. And he wrote smash hits like “I Can’t Go For That” and “Sarah Smile” and a whole bunch of others. John Oates is one of the best-known names in the music industry. He’s also a hard-core car nut, and he’s our guest on Autoline After Hours this Thursday. So join us for what promises to be a great show that mixes cars and music.
But that wraps up today’s show, thanks for watching and we’ll see you back here again tomorrow.
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Comments (31)
December 16th, 2020 at 12:13 pm
Brand new Chevrolet Bolt’s are in $19,000′s right now!
December 16th, 2020 at 12:25 pm
VW keeping the diesel 2.0L in production with some new technology seems to elude the ICE isn’t dead yet. Supposedly no new ICE engines are in development but really why would they need to develop a new engine. Slight upgrades like what VW has done can keep existing engines around for some time into the future
December 16th, 2020 at 12:44 pm
I an effort to save cost, I don’t see why Lamborghini does come under the control of Porche. Now that Audi is managing Bentley, it would seem that this would be a natural fit Porche to take our the Italian supercar brand. Out side of the Urus and Cayenne, none of their other vehicles over lap or compete one to the other, yet it seems they would have a lot of synergies. Lambo at one point, wanted to save cost by having the previous flagship and their entry level supercars share their platform. Audi put and end to that, because the entry level vehicle had to share its bones with the R8! This would not be an issue with Porsche leadership and Lamborghini could still have the freedom it plug into its Italian heritage, while benefiting from the management of one of the world’s greatest automotive engineering organizations.
December 16th, 2020 at 12:45 pm
Buckminster Fuller would say if battery costs declined by 90% over past 10 years why not a decline of 90% over next 10 years. Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries are already significantly cheaper and already in some EV’s today Some pundits are saying EV’s will be cheaper than ICE in 2024
December 16th, 2020 at 12:53 pm
4 Question is will EVs be cheaper because of the cost coming down or just that ICE cars keep rising to ridiculous prices to offset the carbon credit and EV development costs.
December 16th, 2020 at 1:13 pm
#2) I hear what your saying, but even though they’ve made this massive BEV investment, they have to keep up with the other OEM’s too. With a lot of major markets flirting with the idea or putting in place zone emission zones and restricting the sale of ICE’s by a specific date, VW Group’s EV’s will be readily for that. Yet, what if the political mood changes and those dates are pushed back, or the regime changes? While other OEM’s have not made the same EV investment as VW, they may be in a better position on newer, more efficient ICE’s then Volkswagen if they do nothing! If at some point in the next ten years there is not the same level of political pressure as there is now, BEV’s ay still sell slower then VW hoped would. Then, they could be far behind other OEM’s who continue to invest in newer internal combustion engines. BEV’s maybe the future, but they are still a very small market and automakers have to balance what IS selling, with what the future MAY bring. Nobody wants to be betamax when VHS came out. No one wants to be VHS, when CD’s came out. No one wants to be compact discs when Blu-ray came out. No one wants to be Blu-Ray now that streaming is all the rage! But in all those examples, during that transition, how do you know how much to invest in one old thing, just as the new thing takes off? You don’t want to stick too long with the old thing, but you don’t want to move too quickly on the new thing. These are definitely exciting and stressful times to be an automotive business!
December 16th, 2020 at 1:20 pm
EVs are less expensive to make and have fewer parts. Even when the ICE is no longer made, I doubt they will ever become cheaper than them.
I think once the ICE is gone, EV manufacturers will follow the practice of gas stations; Their prices are always the same and can change simultaneously.
December 16th, 2020 at 1:23 pm
Hey Sean, how many units is a 36% increase in Volvo sales? To me it appears that you often give % sales increases for Volvo is that because the numbers are embarrassingly low. I mean if they sold 100 cars on October then an amazing 136 cars in November is a 36% increase but a lousy selling rate in anybody’s book. Give us the numbers…
December 16th, 2020 at 1:36 pm
The 30% increase in the 2021 Toyota Mirai range comes mostly from the increase in fuel tanks size and partial from increase efficiency in the new fuel cell design.
December 16th, 2020 at 1:37 pm
6 No doubt your absolutely right as far as supporting existing tech while developing EVs but much like your analogy you don’t want to be Beta max while VHS becomes mainstream. Sad part about all that was Beta was a superior product, but for whatever reason Beta became surpassed by VHS. invest too much into EVs to have fuel cells become the answer or visa-versa.
Everyone is still pretty sceptical on fuel cells and seems to think EVs are the answer but I believe we are early enough into this tech that something better could come along and make batteries the Beta of automotive propulsion.
December 16th, 2020 at 1:46 pm
The simplistic way to extrapolate battery costs in the future is a straight line… but the most probable extrapolation would be based on the changing rate of improvement over the last 10 years. If improvement is leveling off, then future improvements may be small. If improvements are increasing, the future looks very bright. Sean, do you have data on the battery cost CURVE over the last 10 years?
December 16th, 2020 at 2:02 pm
@Kevin – Thanks for asking. I just added the link for that story in the transcript, but here it is too: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/electric-cars-are-about-to-be-as-cheap-as-gas-powered-models
There’s a graph that shows battery prices over the last 10 years.
December 16th, 2020 at 2:05 pm
followup to yesterday: Wim, yes you can ‘crack’ diesel and process it into a variety of other hydrocarbons. Also, as you probably know, neither diesel or gasoline is a single structure. Both are mixes of different things. For examples, diesel consists mainly of paraffins, aromatics and naphthenes (C12 to C20) My main point however was that you don’t ‘reduce carbon’ by getting rid of one crude oil fraction. You still get just as much diesel, but you now have to find a way to process it into something else. If the something else is a different fuel, like kerosene, then just as much carbon ends up in the air.
December 16th, 2020 at 4:43 pm
8 Volvo sold 11591 vehicles in the US in November 2020.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/volvo-us-sales-figures/
December 16th, 2020 at 4:44 pm
I would most likely be a buyer of a BEV if they actually get to price parity. As that is a few years away, I suspect they will have better range and faster charging times also. Fast charging is a particular concern for me given the multiple trips I take where I would fully utilize an EVs current range in a single trip.
December 16th, 2020 at 4:51 pm
At some point, the curve of battery cost decrease will flatten out. Some of that may already be happening, though there are “ups and downs” in the year-to-year decrease.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robday/2019/12/03/low-cost-batteries-are-about-to-transform-multiple-industries/?sh=30e5f4a91054
December 16th, 2020 at 4:57 pm
I still question our capacity to charge all these vehicles when we reach full scale. There are currently 280 million vehicles on the road in the USA. It generally goes up by 2% every year. That is a whole lot of daily electricity demand if full scale is reached. That will require power plants literally everywhere just to charge vehicles. I don’t think our future will be 100% BEV as a result of that. As always, the right choice will be a mix of technologies.
December 16th, 2020 at 6:03 pm
17 A “typical” EV uses about 30 kWh per 100 miles. That would be 3600 kWh per 12,000 miles. If there were 100 million of these cars driving 12K miles/year, they would use 1.2 trillion kWh of power in a year. The US now uses about 3.9 trillion kWh of power a year, so if there were 100 million EVs driven 12K miles a year, there would be a ~30% increase in electricity usage. No guarantees on my quick calculations, but they should be right, and the source of info close.
December 16th, 2020 at 6:11 pm
18 Correction. The cars would use only 360 billion kWh, which would be less than 10% of current usage.
December 17th, 2020 at 8:37 am
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: Much evidence of voter fraud that appears to show Trump actually won. The swing states all stopped their vote counting around 10:30 or 11 PM which has never happened and then votes switched and added for Biden in only Democrat controlled areas and they blocked Republicans from inspecting the ballots. Many court cases in process and various hearings. The evidence of election fraud is overwhelming from dead people voting to printed ballots to switching votes to software algorithms and much more. Swing state GOP legislatures submitted electors for Trump as Dems submitted their electors for Biden in the contested election. Avoid the main stream FAKE NEWS and try watching more FACT/TRUTH based news like Newsmax, Epoch Times, One American News Network, and read Citizen Free Press dot com. Main stream news acting like Biden won and ignoring election fraud evidence and China CCP links to politicians and Dominion voting systems. Stay tuned…many treasonous people to be indicted.
EV’s: Battery pack cost reduction addresses only 1 of many issues with EV’s – high vehicle price. Low range, long charge time, and lack of charging infrastructure are just 3 other large issues that EV’s struggle to address. Only 1.6% of USA sales are EV’s and consumers simply do not want them. Those that do sell are luxury performance high tech EV’s (75% from Tesla) that are purchased primarily by wealthy people and the volumes are niche. Interesting that Communist China is pushing EV’s by forced mandate as are the one political party that have strong links to China. I wonder why? Follow the $$$$. Freedom and free markets is much better way.
December 17th, 2020 at 9:17 am
17-19 Its not just the manufacturing of Electricity but the transference. Think about all the homes, parking garages apartment buildings that would need a major upgrade to be able to charge a single EV at home or multiple EVs at a complex.
I know just in my town there are thousands of homes that only have 60/100 amp services to the home. The lead to the home isn’t even in conduit its old school 3 wire wrap clamped to the side of the home. You start an electric stove, dryer hot water heater and charge a car and you could see the potential for house fires. Many many homes need electrical panel and feeds to the home upgraded. Should be a good time to be an electrical contractor.
December 17th, 2020 at 9:26 am
17-20 Another concern is charging during peak hours. A few states thought their grid could keep up for the foreseeable future and suggested it is possible to program (home) charging stations to delay the time of charging until off hours. This delay could become a real issue when EVs become ones major source of transportation.
December 17th, 2020 at 9:27 am
18/19) The calculation looks correct. The problem is that they don’t break it down into vehicle types. So you have a mix of personal transport all the way up to 80,000 pound commercial trucks. Obviously there is a significant power requirement difference between a 5000 pound car travelling 12,000 miles per year and an 80,000 pound commercial truck travelling 150,000 miles per year. I wish they would break it down better so we could understand total power requirements. I am not expecting that to be a “small” increase mainly because of commercial truck/bus/RV.
December 17th, 2020 at 9:34 am
21) My neighbor has 2 TESLA vehicles. One for him and one for his wife. They cannot be charged at the same time because it draws too much power. The power company stated that they cannot increase the power to his home because it is a residence and not a commercial building. There are legislative limits on how much power can be supplied to his home because of the safety concerns with residential buildings(too many DIY types with zero electrical qualifications). He has worked out the charge schedule now but the dream of charging off peak doesn’t happen for him because at least one of them is being charged on peak on any given day.
December 17th, 2020 at 10:00 am
20, 23 Lambo you described the electrical service to my house to a T. I have 30amps going to the garage so I could never come close to charging 2 EVs. I think most 2 car families will need at least one ICE vehicle with maybe an EV for a local city car.
December 17th, 2020 at 10:26 am
20 There is no place to charge cars at my Florida condo, period, but my ~90 year old Indiana house fits your description. It has 100 amp service, with an electric range, water heater, clothes drier, and two window air conditioners. Slow charging a car with a 120v, 20 amp outlet would be ok, but if I had a 240v, 30 amp charger, I’d need to watch what other stuff was on at the same time.
December 17th, 2020 at 10:32 am
22 Yeah, if there come to be large numbers of large electric vehicles, generating capacity would become a bigger factor. For now, the problem is a place to charge EVs, especially for apartment and condo dwellers.
December 17th, 2020 at 11:48 am
27) That is a huge problem as well. Most of the apartment complexes around me seemingly don’t have the funds to fill potholes in their parking lots. I can’t imagine too many ripping up the parking lots and installing the cables and electric boxes for vehicle charging. At least not without a substantial rate increase for their residents who are all on the lower end of the economic classes here.
Then there are the people in the city that park on the street. I have no clue who will be installing and paying for chargers on the street. Maybe the city will do it? It is going to be a messy transition because I don’t see anyone trying to sort this out and being prepared.
I guess we will figure out the messy and non-sexy details as they happen. That will be the most expensive way to do it, but here we are.
December 18th, 2020 at 2:04 pm
It makes sense for Biden to pick Bootiecall for Transportation , He is well experienced in traveling up dirt roads and the old Hershey highway.
December 20th, 2020 at 6:43 pm
Electrical demand on homes is already rising what with bigger entertainment demand, working from home,more air-con. Id suspect many home owners are already having peak-fusebox issues and so an rewiring will be needed (or subscribe to a car-sharing pool/buy an electric bike).
Massive amounts of wind power is turned off at present at night as demand is too low. Even nuclear has to run at minimal output so there is plenty of unused capacity to charge at night. Daytime solar is so high in California, the price is near negligible. The person with the 2 teslas could install a battery storage filled at the cheapest rate and then used to power the 2nd tesla at a speed far higher than his current home charger. No need for solar he only needs a battery that can recharge his tesla from say 5 to 80%.
As for Apartment/condo owners then like at present they will use “gas stations” ie commercial superchargers with storage to avail of cheap rate zero carbon power. The same EVs will come in handy as large UPS when the power lines burn/blow/flood cuts you off and could be offered even more deals as a group peaker plant ie use your car battery as part of a virtual power plant when wind-solar is low but demand is high (superbowl night).
December 20th, 2020 at 9:49 pm
As to China’s interest in EVs. Its never going to compete with Mercedes or any very advanced ICE engine maker so why bother. Its focused on offering the best battery factories, the biggest home EV demand and access to the raw materials and investing in a massive renewable power (and building worldclass wind turbines and solar panels). Its also got a chronic air pollution issue and even the elite politicians and the superrich breath the same toxic air. EVs are the answer for the vast majority of road vehicles. If China can make the best electric powertrain and offer a massive car market for these next gen powertrains while the US, Europe and Japan are still catching up (bar Tesla) then where would you rather invest and bet on the next EV infrastructure. Apple may design the phone but the vast amount of jobs/capital investment and skillset in building everything to do with them is in China.