AD #3005 – Hyundai Elantra Impressions; GM Plans to Ditch ICEs By 2035; VW Opens 1st EV Battery Recycling Plant
January 29th, 2021 at 11:56am
Listen to “AD #3005 – Hyundai Elantra Impressions; GM Plans to Ditch ICEs By 2035; VW Opens 1st EV Battery Recycling Plant” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 10:49
0:08 GM Plans to Ditch ICEs for Light Vehicles By 2035
0:57 Thursday’s Stock Market Results
1:55 Elon Musk Confirms Future Product Details
3:59 A Hack Proof Wiring System?
5:20 Hyundai Second Guesses Apple Partnership
6:04 Daimler’s Operating Profit Better Than Expected
7:03 Hyundai Elantra Impressions
8:28 Hyundai Partners Up to Build VTOL Hub
9:28 Volkswagen Opens First EV Battery Recycling Plantnt
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GM PLANS TO DITCH ICEs FOR LIGHT VEHICLES BY 2035
General Motors dropped a bombshell yesterday. It announced it will get rid of its diesel and gasoline engines for light vehicles by 2035. Remember, when we say light vehicles, that still includes its full-size pickups and SUVs. While that’s 14 years away, in automotive terms it’s only two design cycles away, which is right around the corner. GM wants to be completely carbon neutral in its global products and operations by 2040. That’s a very aggressive schedule. A few days ago, Nissan announced it wants to be carbon neutral by 2050, so GM would beat it by a decade. GM will have 30 different BEVs for sale around the world by 2025, and has committed $27 billion to get there.
THURSDAY’S STOCK MARKET RESULTS
The stock market liked what GM had to say, but it didn’t go wild. GM closed up 3.4%. But GM’s strong push into electrics may have caused investors to have second thoughts about EV startups. The entire sector fell, with Nikola plunging 19% and Fisker dropping 7%. Tesla started out Monday at a high of nearly $900 a share, but investors were disappointed with its latest financial numbers and it trended down all week. So investors turned their attention to the automotive supplier sector. Adient, the interior supplier, was up 5%. Aptiv, the software and electronics company, was up over 4%. Magna posted a 3.6% gain and Cooper Standard was up 3%. But the best automotive stock of them all was on the retail side. Carvana jumped 7%.
| STOCK MARKET RESULTS – January 28, 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $ Change | % Change | |
| General Motors | $51.04 | +$1.70 | +3.4% |
| Nikola | $23.18 | -$5.40 | -18.9% |
| Fisker | $15.46 | -$1.17 | -7% |
| Adiient | $32.91 | +$1.60 | +5.1% |
| Aptiv | $133.42 | +$5.46 | +4.3% |
| Magna | $72.09 | +$2.52 | +3.6% |
| Cooper Standard | $31.31 | +$0.93 | +3.1% |
| Carvana | $256.01 | +$16.70 | +7% |
ELON MUSK CONFIRMS FUTURE PRODUCT DETAILS
Tesla showed off the new versions of the Model S & X and during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call, Elon Musk revealed more details about future products. He confirmed that the Roadster won’t go into production until next year, about two years after it was originally supposed to hit the market. It was delayed in part to focus on the Cybertruck. And speaking of the Cybertruck, Musk says that Tesla will be “lucky” to deliver some this year. Volume production won’t begin until next year. Musk says that they’ve almost finished engineering the Cybertruck but they need to order new manufacturing equipment in order to build it. And speaking of trucks, Elon says they’re ready to start producing semi-trucks but need those 4680 cells to do so. And lastly, Musk said that Tesla plans to introduce an electric commercial van but it too won’t be available until the company can secure the proper battery cell supply for it.
A HACK PROOF WIRING SYSTEM?
We have a great Autoline After Hours posted on our website and YouTube channel. Our guest was Dan Greene from a company called Tueor that developed a hack-proof wiring system that could be used in cars, computers and just about everything else. To convince the Department of Defense how good it is, Tueor invited it to try and hack into one of its computers. Take a look.
“In fact we put out a challenge to the DoD to prove this could work in which we said, ‘Look, here’s a computer and here’s a file and here’s everything you need to know to get into it. We’re going to leave it up online 24-7 until further notice. And if you can get into it we will give you $50,000 and a case of single malt Scotch. One year later I’ve still got the money, but I’ve gone through the Scotch. We had over 490,000 hits from all around the world without a single successful intrusion. And we used that computer in the lab every day.”
John McElroy: “So Dan, who from all over the world tried to hack into your computer?”
Dan Greene: “We had North Korea, China, France, England, a whole bunch of people from the West Coast and a whole bunch of people from the East Coast. We even had a guy from Iceland.”
HYUNDAI SECOND GUESSES APPLE PARTNERSHIP
While there’s been talk of the Hyundai Group partnering up with Apple to make EVs and batteries, it sounds like the automaker is wringing its hands over whether or not to become a contract manufacturer. Hyundai is fairly well vertically integrated, making many of its own components in-house. And Reuters reports a Hyundai executive as saying, “We are not a company which manufactures cars for others. It is not like working with Apple would always produce great results.” And there’s truth in that statement. While companies, like Magna, contract manufactures vehicles for others and make money at it, they also program management and logistics. There’s not a lot of money to be made by simply bolting a bunch of components together.
DAIMLER’S OPERATING PROFIT BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Despite a crazy 2020, Daimler reported a better-than-expected operating profit for the year, thanks to cost cutting measures and car sales picking back up. It’s earnings before interest and taxes or EBIT for 2020 came in at 6.6 billion euros or a little more than $8 billion, which is an increase of 52% compared to 2019. While that’s great news, when its full financial report comes out on February 18th, we expect Daimler’s net profit figure won’t be so sparkling. Daimler also warns that the continued chip shortage and disruptions related to the global pandemic will impact its first quarter results for this year.
HYUNDAI ELANTRA IMPRESSIONS
The 2021 Hyundai Elantra was named the North American Car of the Year. And it’s easy to see why the jury chose it over all the others. Hyundai has a knack for equipping its cars with the latest technology, and pricing them very attractively. We test drove an Elantra with the Limited trim level which comes with standard equipment you might expect on a luxury car. For example: adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance with pedestrian and bicyclist protection, and rear cross-traffic braking. It also had leather trimmed seats, an 8-speaker Bose sound system, and a wireless charging pad for your phone. All that for $26,600. Under the hood is a naturally aspirated 2-liter four with 147 horsepower and 132 pound feet of torque. That power is fed through a CVT which did not exactly deliver crisp shifts and tended to make the engine moan under light throttle. The Elantra rides firmly, but it also transmits every bump and road irregularity into the cabin. We found the new Nissan Sentra to be much better in that regard. Even so, when you consider the entire package, the Elantra is a compelling car to consider for anyone who’s looking for a 5-passenger sedan that delivers 35 miles to the gallon, is nicely equipped and won’t break the bank.
HYUNDAI PARTNERS UP TO BUILD VTOL HUB
We’ve seen a lot of activity involving vertical takeoff and landing aircraft recently but one big thing that’s holding that market back is a lack of infrastructure for VTOLs. That’s why Hyundai, the UK government and the city of Coventry, England have partnered with Urban Air Port, a company that develops infrastructure for future air mobility, to build a hub for VTOLs. The site, which will be located in Coventry, launches later this year and will be used to test and demonstrate the potential of VTOLs for passengers and cargo delivery. The hub is 60% smaller compared to a traditional heliport, can be completely run off the grid and can be installed in just a few days thanks to innovative construction techniques. Urban Air Port plans to install 200 of these sites worldwide over the next five years. Hyundai is supporting the initial hub as part of its goal to commercialize its VTOLs by 2028.
VOLKSWAGEN OPENS FIRST EV BATTERY RECYCLING PLANT
Volkswagen just opened its first facility to recycle electric vehicle batteries that can no longer be reused for other purposes. Initially, the site can recycle up to 3,600 vehicle batteries a year but in the future, it will be scaled up as it optimizes the process. In the long term, it says it will be able to recycle 90% of the battery. In addition to aluminum, copper and plastics, the process yields what’s called “black powder”, which contains valuable raw materials like lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt. Those materials are then separated by hydrometallurgical processes to be reused for VW’s battery cell production.
But that’s all we got for this week, thanks for watching and we’ll see you again on Monday.
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Comments (31)
January 29th, 2021 at 12:43 pm
For ships that need to charge and likely spend most of their time on the ground, that port seems to not have enough area to accommodate air vehicle traffic.
January 29th, 2021 at 1:00 pm
So we are rushing head strong into electric vehicles despite the fact there’s a lack of infrastructure, we don’t know how people who park on the street or are in isolated areas are going to charge, we can’t recycle the batteries in large numbers, the range is too small for many parts of the country let alone the world…
Yes this should go swimmingly.
January 29th, 2021 at 1:25 pm
A lot of words in that GM announcement. Reading between the lines though, I forecast that there will be a mix of BEVs and Plug-In Hybrid vehicles by 2035 from GM. Otherwise there would be no reason to continue investing in: “Stop/Start, aerodynamic efficiency enhancements, downsized boosted engines, more efficient transmissions and other vehicle improvements, including mass reduction and lower rolling resistance tires.”
That would also align with their strategy plan in that announcement. By mid-decade their announcement shows that they will not be 100% BEV by 2050. Therefore they have to be Plug-In Hybrid which they could then claim as “zero emission”. This would make sense for the trucks. A Plug-In Hybrid truck would allow someone to drive mostly electric on their daily commute, but have the ICE as a back up when they need to tow things long distance.
That is how I saw it at least.
January 29th, 2021 at 1:44 pm
Mary Barra will be long gone and forgotten by 2035. I place about as much credence in this latest “bombshell” as I do in the 12 – 24 month weather forecast.
January 29th, 2021 at 1:45 pm
3 Good aerodynamic efficiency, low rolling resistance tires, and weight reduction are useful for EVs, as they are for gas vehicles. Transmissions and piston engines may be about as advanced as they will get. Do you really need more than 10 speeds for an automatic transmission?
From the linked news release, “an aspiration to eliminate tailpipe emissions from new light-duty vehicles by 2035.” That sounds like pure EVs, if they are going to “eliminate tailpipe emissions.” Of course, it’s an “aspiration,” which could be subject to change, as reality sets in.
January 29th, 2021 at 3:40 pm
thanks for another great week of automotive news
January 29th, 2021 at 3:42 pm
It seems like particulate polution will be gaining more attention when more EV’s hit the roads. The extra weight of the EV is harder on tires than ICE cars.
On a different topic: If there is a chip shortage, why not offer basic cars that don’t have all these new devices that I, for one, am not crazy about. Doing so would also reduce the weight of these EVs and make them more affordable.
January 29th, 2021 at 3:44 pm
Just added this to counter the electric hysteria:
Roughly 30% of the cost of an electric car is the battery; depending on the manufacturer the battery must be replaced every 3 to 5 years. Work those numbers and tell me how Joe 6-pack is ever convinced to buy an electric car. (You have to bring back those $100,000 a year jobs on the Keystone pipeline so he can afford the electric car you want him to buy.)
Over the life cycle of an electric – that life cycle as in production of the battery to deliver to a junk yard for recycling – any of the current models of electric car have a larger carbon footprint than the average SUV or my F-150. Let that sink in for 1 moment. Now remind me why we on this jihad to convert to electric cars.
Most of the minerals needed for the manufacturing of the batteries come from China. Let that sink in for just 2 moments and consider the potential ramifications of more dependency on the CCP.
January 29th, 2021 at 4:24 pm
8 – We are on this road to EV Land for several reasons. First, a majority of scientists have been sounding alarms about climate change…. of which fossil fuels and bovine farts are huge contributors.
Second, too much of the world’s source of oil comes from regions of the world that hate us. Why make them richer? (I know we have become more self reliant, but it’s not an infinite supply).
Third, EVs are simpler to maintain with fewer parts to go wrong… offering the potential for higher customer satisfaction… i.e., once you buy one, you may not buy many other ICEs. I recognize this may not apply to many people for quite some time (apartment/condo dwellers and residents of many sparsely populated “fly-over” states.
Fourth, the instantaneous torques of EVs is intoxicating.
Having said all this, the knocks against EVs are charger access, charging times, dubious supply of battery guts, a time bomb of battery disposal, and (to a less extent) driving range. If and when solid state batteries are perfected and affordable, nearly all the resistance to EVs will go away. No pun intended.
January 29th, 2021 at 5:02 pm
9 Charger access is the main deterrent to my considering an EV as one of my cars. Those other things are significant, with probably some unknowns about how good battery recyclability will become, when a lot of batteries are at the end of life.
8 Batteries last a lot longer than 3-5 years, normally at least 10, but there are too few older EVs on the road to really know what “average” battery lifetime will be.
January 29th, 2021 at 5:12 pm
7 There would be more particulates from tires if there were a lot of EVs, but fewer of those unhealthy to breath very small particulates from GDI turbo engines.
Does anyone know what actual chips there are shortages of? Is it microprocessors, small power devices for window motors, or ?. I have no idea, but am curious, if anyone here knows.
January 29th, 2021 at 5:55 pm
Do you know how to roll up your car windows, adjust your seats and mirrors, read roadway signs,look both ways at intersections and when backing up and nsmart enough not to tailgate?
Well… if you are a good driver you do… so noone NEEDS these lazy driver devises that require chips. It’s that simple. I bet the price of a vehicle could be reduced by $5K or more if manufactures offered basic transportation. Then I’ll become more interested in an EV; And since the floor in the EV is flat, lets bring back bench seats!
January 29th, 2021 at 6:15 pm
Anyone who advocates the electric hysteria has a naive understanding of systems, from lust to dusk. Where do you think all this electricity is coming from? We have no coal, we have no oil, we have no nuclear. And you naively believe that dolor will supply all of the world, let alone America? We already have rolling blackouts in California. Wait until it rolls over your are of the country. Picture a hot summer day when all the air conditioners are on and all the electric cars are charging in all the major cities. Oh, and at the end of your 10 year battery life span what are the land fills going to do with those batteries when they are filled up? 17 million SARR and all battery powered. Brilliant.
January 29th, 2021 at 6:47 pm
12 – I appreciate your plea for responsible drivers. But, we have a generation of distracted drivers with phone/texting addictions and a large aging population with declining reaction capabilities and degrading night vision. So, we need to accept the era of driver assist systems… automated emergency braking, lane keeping, auto headlamps and auto high beams.
January 29th, 2021 at 7:04 pm
12,13 The driver assist stuff must not cost too much to do, if you make a lot of it, because it is standard in a base Corolla.
January 29th, 2021 at 7:40 pm
14 – It’s about $500 of material cost, not counting the engineering development and tooling costs. So, an OEM needs to recovery about $1000 per unit of revenue to cover the fully accounted cost. My cost estimates reflect a long range radar, a forward-looking camera, two flanking medium range radar, wiring, processors, and displays. It adds up.
January 29th, 2021 at 7:43 pm
14). If these things add little cost, then there should be no problem to design these things so they can be turned off.
January 29th, 2021 at 7:57 pm
16 The annoying part on my Camry can be turned of, and stays off.
January 31st, 2021 at 12:54 pm
I’ve been reviewing financial reports sent to me about where they think investments are headed. They believe susstainable investments will increase 25% from current levels.
Besides trends we already know of, like hyb./el (even in short leg air planes), high speed rail, improved infrustructure, they predict hydrogen will be another big winner.
Due to rapid growth in technology, hydrogen production will continue to find it in more semi fuel tanks in the near future in a big way. Also, its use in medium and small aircraft will see benifits from its use.
Predictions that fuels derived from oil will dwindle in the next 5-10 years should be looked at realistically. we will still depend on oil for another 30+ years. We will still need all the various lubricants, like grease, and amazingly to make clothing materials, pharmaceuticals and even food stuffs. And the ICE will still be around in forms, including generators, cranes and other large equiptment.
You won’t get rich investing in sustainables and green hydrogen now but values could easily go beyond gains of 6-8% in the very near future.
January 31st, 2021 at 3:08 pm
One more try. Wake up and smell the gasoline. It’s the smell of horsepower. All, stop with the electric hysteria. Why are the lemmings running off the edge? Electric may have a place in compact cities, but it doesn’t in the long expanses of the American west or the outback. We are not all going to be driving electric, no matter what you wish. Ford said we would be driving AI by 2021. We’ll, here we are. And GM said we would be driving hydrogen. GM is going to be loosing big time on this electric folly. Leave these electric cars to the niche market. Just like at the turn of the 20th century electric was tried and abandoned for more energy rich gasoline. Nothing, did I mention nothing, has the BTUs of gasoline.
January 31st, 2021 at 3:35 pm
18 The investment I’m a little concerned about is bond funds. About 25% of my money is in them, and they could crash if interest rates start rising. I’d be inclined to sell some now, except where do you put the money?
January 31st, 2021 at 3:45 pm
19 Most driving is not in “long expanses of the American west or the outback.” Most trips are less than 20 miles. The big thing lacking for EVs in the US is basic charging infrastructure, especially for people living in high density housing in urban areas where EVs are so desirable.
I’m highly skeptical about GM sticking with their current plan to make everything electric by 2035, unless they consider BEVs, plug-in hybrids, and regular hybrids to all be “electric.”
Car companies, and oil companies will need to adapt to the future, or they will have a “Kodak Moment,” but they need to be able to adjust their plans in an ongoing basis, as realities are known.
January 31st, 2021 at 5:02 pm
Kit, this is a time to trust in having a balanced portfolio. I continue to have the proper balance. Presently bonds in the US banking system have taken a slight hit, but other types have inclined. They tend to balance themselves out, but my advisor keeps abreast of the feds in regard to bank bonds. I believe we will reduce my bond holdings once 2 things occure. First, a market correction. Second, seeing what happens to the ecomony as the stimulus takes effect, job numbers and agressiveness of the buisiness sector. There are high expectations under this administration that there will be no drastic negatives during this half of the year. The stock market will remain robust, perhaps not the gains we had of 11-14%.
In preparation, I will be increasing the amount of my stock holdings by 20%.
You really need a finacial advisor if you do not have one. They will know how to handle your bond holdings and where to put them at the right time.
January 31st, 2021 at 5:11 pm
Many countries already are working with the oil companies to plan for the future in the EV world. Many have invested in charging networks and in hydrogen developemnt. Governments are depending on them to use their vast wealth to invest in these types of infrastructures siince govt tills are strained.
January 31st, 2021 at 9:50 pm
22 I have someone who is basically a financial advisor, but who also sells investments. I don’t think he has any incentive to sell one type investment over another, though, and I have done well, overall, with his recommendations over the last ~20 years. I’ll be talking to him in a few weeks.
February 1st, 2021 at 9:59 am
To me a balanced solution between Electric/Hybrid/ICE is the best right now based on current technology. Anyone who is on the extreme of anything (Like the all BEV or nothing crowd or the all ICE or nothing crowd) are in the wrong.
BEVs will work for some, BEVS will not work for others. That is how it will always be until there are some major technological breakthroughs in battery technology and cost parity. To me, the battery charge times are the biggest factor causing issues though.
You can give someone 600 miles of range and they would still have “range anxiety”. The reason why there are no range anxiety issues with ICE cars, such as the Pontiac Fiero that could only go 200 miles between fill ups, is because it literally takes less than 2 minutes to fill up a Pontiac Fiero and you are on your way again. It takes the Ford Mach-E 45 minutes to charge up for 200 miles. That drives anxiety.
The fact that you could be stuck somewhere with no charger access. Even if there was charger access, your still stuck there for a long time assuming you are first to the charger. If you are second or third to the charger and have to wait for everyone else to complete their 45 minute charge times; you will be stuck there for hours. Well beyond the “stretch your legs” time and straight into the “highly annoyed” time.
Right now BEV drivers don’t deal with that too often because so few are driving BEVs(<2% of the market). Soon enough they will be stuck for hours waiting for their superchargers. Getting mad at the persons who are charging while they are stuck in their BEV waiting and significantly delaying their trip plans. It has already happened in some locations on Holiday weekends. Everyone blows it off as a fluke, but it is simply a foreshadowing of things to come when BEVs get to scale with current battery technology.
Solve charge times though, and everyone could have a BEV in their driveway(assuming price parity).
February 1st, 2021 at 10:07 am
Tesla and their SuperChargers work great for long distance driving. The other EVs have challenges but progress is being made as they try to catch-up.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:19 am
For now, BEVs work great as commuter cars for those who can charge them at home. Teslas work well for longer trips, for people like Bob W. who don’t mind taking a 30-45 minute break every 2-3 hours. For me, EVs just wouldn’t work. I have no place to charge at home, and when taking long trips, usually traveling alone, I like going 400-450 miles between stops, and then continuing after a ~10 minute stop.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:42 am
#27 – It is a 15-20 minute stop every 2-2.5 hours. We charge just enough to reach the next SuperCharger to get the fastest charging rate. Think motorcycle style driving between short fuel stops.
February 1st, 2021 at 10:52 am
28 This is what the Tesla site shows for the trip I take twice a year:
https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=MS_2020_Performance&o=Cape%20Canaveral,%20FL%2032920,%20USA_Cape%20Canaveral%20Brevard%20County%20FL@28.3922182,-80.60771319999999&s=&d=Kokomo,%20IN,%20USA_Kokomo%20Center%20Township%20Howard%20County@40.486427,-86.13360329999999
Their time estimate is 4 hours and 49 minutes longer than google maps’ estimate for the same trip. Bob, if you see this, do you know what speed is used for Tesla’s estimates? I guess google uses the posted speed limit, but I’m not sure.
February 1st, 2021 at 11:02 am
29 It’s another ~1.5 hours for a Standard Range Plus.