AD #3347 – EV Profits Being Wiped Out by Material Costs; GM to Sell 400,000 EVs in 2023; Don’t Compare ADAS Accidents

June 16th, 2022 at 12:00pm

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Listen to “AD #3347 – EV Profits Being Wiped Out by Material Costs; GM to Sell 400,000 EVs in 2023; Don't Compare ADAS Accidents” on Spreaker.

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Runtime: 11:41

0:07 Tesla Raises Prices… Again
1:16 NHTSA Warns: Don’t Compare ADAS Accidents
2:30 Honda & Sony Officially Start New Company
3:04 Ford Launches C-V2X in China
4:30 Cadillac Celestiq Limited to 400 Units/Year
5:29 NIO Launches ES7 Electric SUV
6:33 Audi Files Lawsuit Against NIO
6:59 Honda Civic Type R Rips Up the Nurburgring
7:59 GM to Sell 400,000 EVs in 2023
9:15 Mach-E Profits Wiped Out by Raw Material Prices

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27 Comments to “AD #3347 – EV Profits Being Wiped Out by Material Costs; GM to Sell 400,000 EVs in 2023; Don’t Compare ADAS Accidents”

  1. matttheviewer Says:

    In future, if not already done, would be nice to see an Autoline episode discussing the impact that rapidly multiplying subscription fees will have on auto ownership (will Apple’s “Subscribe to Drive” become the standard ?).

  2. Scott from Asheville Says:

    $250,000 for the Celestiq? At least that much. GM wants to push Cadillac upmarket.

  3. Kit Gerhart Says:

    For years, cost of lithium batteries was rapidly decreasing. Was that entirely because of better manufacturing efficiencies, or were materials for batteries getting cheaper, until now?

  4. Kit Gerhart Says:

    I suspect Tesla raised prices because they can get by with it and still sell as many cars as they can build, for now. With more and better competition hitting the market, that could change.

  5. Albemarle Says:

    I would have predicted a Celestiq starting price in the $160k range, but if they are making only 400 a year, it makes me up my prediction to $190k. It may be vastly superior, but public perception will determine what price it can demand. ELR?

  6. Albemarle Says:

    It looks like a big Tesla advantage is they have production volume where others are waiting on chips. So they can get the price increases for now. When others get chips and production, they can always lower prices. In the meantime they laugh all the way to the bank.

  7. George Ricci Says:

    In California today it cost me $6.00 a gallon to put gas into my Honda Accord Hybrid. That works out to 13 cents per mile ($6/45mpg= 13.3). Electricity cost me 31.5 cents per kWh. If I had a Chevy Bolt which is one of the more efficient EV’s on the market, it would cost me 9 cents per mile (.31.5 x 28kWh per 100miles = $8.82/100=.0882 ~ .09). So, it is currently cheaper to drive an EV.

    But here is the problem. The cost of electricity is going up much faster than than inflation because of our aggressive move to renewable energy. There are several more rate increases already scheduled this year. I have seen projections that in a few years we will be at 50 cent a kWh. (.50 x 28kWh per 100miles = $14.00/100=.14). As we all know the price of gasoline goes up and down based on world events, so next year it should be back to 4 or 5 dollars. If I use $5 a gallon ($5/45mpg = 11.1) that works out to 11 cents per mile. It’s going to cost more to drive an EV on top of paying more to buy the EV. Try selling an EV to people who don’t want one, plus the argument that EV’s are cheaper to drive just fell apart.

  8. ChuckGrenci Says:

    5, I think that Cadillac should show a premium price but with the failure of the XLR (Corvette based sports car) and the ELR (Chevy Volt clone), unless they bring loads of innovation to the Celestiq (something not available anywhere else), I hope they learned a lesson and price the introduction; as premium but reasonable.

  9. Sean Wagner Says:

    @George

    CA in 2020 generated 48% of its electric power from natural gas, and 33% from renewables.

    The price of NatGas has nearly tripled (!) from a year ago.

    I’d like to link to my government sources, but autoline has always censored that. Not a critique, just a heads up.

  10. Sean Wagner Says:

    As for the Celestiq, I predict it won’t do a thing for Cadillac unless they manage to design a stunner inside out and place it in two top-grossing movies including China. Shades of the Allante, actually a nice car.

  11. George Ricci Says:

    9. Sean Wagner
    You left out the fact that California buys 1/3 of all its electricity from out of state. The majority of the power is from coal and natual gas.

  12. Sean Wagner Says:

    9 George – I’m very cognizant of the facts. A lot of the imported electricity is from solar and wind – a very sound investment for land owners in the plains states.

    State Wind Electricity Generation (Terawatt hours) Wind’s Share of Net Electricity Generation
    Texas 92.9 TWh 20%
    Iowa 34.1 TWh 58%
    Oklahoma 29.6 TWh 35%
    Kansas 23.5 TWh 43%
    Illinois 17.1 TWh 10%
    California 13.6 TWh 7%
    North Dakota 13.2 TWh 31%
    Colorado 12.7 TWh 23%
    Minnesota 12.2 TWh 22%
    Nebraska 8.7 TWh 24%
    Data from Feb 2020-Feb 2021
    Source: EIA

  13. Kit Gerhart Says:

    7 Where I am in Indiana, the rates are much lower than yours, and they incentivize using more power. The rate is ~15 cents/kWh for the first 300 kWh, and then it goes down to ~11 cents/kWh. The utility is seeking rate hikes, but I don’t know how much.

  14. Bob Wilson Says:

    Thank you for adding the NHTSA correction. It is why I follow Autoline.TV.

  15. George Ricci Says:

    9. Sean Wagner
    California does not buy from most of the states you listed, just ones close by. So, it does no good to tell us how much wind each state produces.

    Here is what I paid for natual gas, January 2020: 1.61890 per Therm, June 2021: $1.41797 per Therm, January 2022 $2.09927 per Therm, June 2020: $2.02247 per Therm. So, I don’t see where you came up with natual gas tripling in price, but that is NOT what we are paying in California.

  16. George Ricci Says:

    13. Hopefully your state will not make all the mistakes that California has made by rushing the transition to renewables.

  17. GM Veteran Says:

    Is Mr Farley aware that his company is currently running ads featuring the Lightning? And I have seen several ads in the recent past featuring the Mach E. He needs to check with his team before going off in front of the mic.

  18. Sean Wagner Says:

    15 George – Thank you, I appreciate data. I’ll try to post a link to

    Natural gas Henry Hub spot prices:
    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52698

    So grab what you can. Here in Europe, Russia is up to a new round of shenanigans, and NatGas prices have surged again.

  19. GM Veteran Says:

    So, the infamous $35,000 Model 3 now starts at $58,000? Wow, Musk also needs to think before he opens his mouth.

    My theory is that Musk is attempting to pool some additional cash to help pay for Twitter.

  20. Wim van Acker Says:

    @15 it is irrelevant what you as a consumer pay for natural gas. What matters is the price a large scale utility companies which operate gas-fired power plants pay.

  21. Wim van Acker Says:

    @15 it is irrelevant what you as a consumer pay for natural gas. What matters is the price a large scale utility companies which operate gas-fired power plants pay.

  22. Wim van Acker Says:

    @21 “… the price large scale …” instead of “… the price a large scale …”

  23. GM Veteran Says:

    Let’s hope GM and Cadillac have learned from their many past missteps and the Celestiq will be a great car, with many unique features, a killer warranty and some unique and pampering owner benefits, and all at a price that makes the supercars and ultra high-end luxury cars look like price gougers.

    But, I am going to wait and see. And, hope that this latest moonshot attempt from Cadillac is not another mistaq!

  24. Sean Wagner Says:

    As for renewables, the percentages I referenced for California are correct and include imports (as per the original table). While in TX, renewables have kept the state chugging along during the recent surge in demand.

    There’s also ample investment lined up to continue the build-out of renewables across the US, as well as transmission where it’s not religiously obstructed. The cost delta only favors them more now.

  25. Kit Gerhart Says:

    19 For only ~$3K more, you can get a new Corvette, buy might have to wait a year or two.

  26. Sean Wagner Says:

    @George & Wim – Vastly differing transactions in volume & duration.

    CA is probably enacting quite a few measures that will drive up the price of electricity, at least temporarily. Two I can think of is investing a lot in battery storage, and (still) planning to shut down the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant (hope that will be pushed out).

    But modern wind and photovoltaic generation at utility scale drives prices down.

    Here in Europe, Russia now is slowly cutting of NatGas supply to France and Germany, after having already done so for smaller countries.

  27. Kit Gerhart Says:

    26 Where is Europe getting gas to replace what they were getting from Russia?

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