AD #3575 – Sulfur Batteries the Next Big Thing?; 2024 F-150 Has 2,500 Fewer Parts; Great Wall & BYD Fight in Public
May 25th, 2023 at 11:56am
Listen to “AD #3575 – Sulfur Batteries the Next Big Thing?; 2024 F-150 Has 2,500 Fewer Parts; Great Wall and BYD Fight in Public” on Spreaker.
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Runtime: 9:54
0:00 Is This the Battery Breakthrough We’ve Been Waiting For?
1:31 California Sets the Stage to Ban ICEs in 2035
2:41 Great Wall Accuses BYD of Exceeding Emissions
3:43 2024 F-150 Has 2,500 Fewer Parts
5:22 Iconic Caterham Going Electric
6:35 Lordstown’s Hail-Mary Stock Split
7:28 Yep, We Sure Do Like That Car
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IS THIS THE BATTERY BREAKTHROUGH WE’VE BEEN WAITING FOR?
Lyten, a Silicon Valley startup that is developing lithium sulfur batteries, scored a big win. Stellantis is investing in the company and wants to start using its batteries in the second half of this decade. Lithium sulfur could be that battery breakthrough that everyone has been hoping for. Lyten says it has twice the energy density of lithium ion batteries. It has a 60% lower carbon footprint and it doesn’t use any nickel, manganese or cobalt. Sulfur is a waste product from manufacturing processes such as petroleum refining and food and paper production, so it’s cheap and plentiful. Today, it’s largely dumped in landfills. Sulfur batteries are not a new idea, but they don’t last very long. Lyten’s breakthrough idea is to use graphene to get the longevity it needs. But neither Lyten nor Stellantis will say what kind of life cycle they’re getting out of the batteries at this stage of development. Another issue could be recycling. Since sulfur is so cheap and plentiful, there isn’t much value in recycling it. Even so, these batteries could be made in existing battery plants with only 10-15% changes on the line.
CALIFORNIA SETS THE STAGE TO BAN ICE IN 2035
The battle over stricter vehicle emissions in the US is getting more intense. Earlier this week, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives urged the EPA to roll back stricter vehicle emission rules that go into effect in 2027. On the other side of the fight, California wants the EPA to approve its proposal to ban sales of new ICE-only powered vehicles in 2035. It wants the EPA to approve a waiver so it can enact emission rules that get tighter every year starting in 2026. That year 35% of new car sales must be PHEVs, BEVs or hydrogen powered cars. It jumps to 68% in 2030 and in 2035 all new vehicle sales must be zero-emission. California says the rules will cost more than $200 billion but result in $300 billion in total benefits. And seven other states have already adopted Califoronia’s EV rules.
GREAT WALL ACCUSES BYD OF EXCEEDING EMISSIONS
China’s auto industry is brutally competitive, and now Great Wall Motor is publicly attacking BYD, saying its best selling PHEVs don’t meet emission standards. We’ve never seen anything like this in the industry before. Usually, when one automaker thinks another isn’t meeting regulated standards, it quietly approaches the regulatory agency through backdoor channels. But Great Wall is doing this out in public and BYD says it could end up suing Great Wall. It’s all about evaporative emissions. Great Wall says BYD does not use pressurized gas tanks in its PHEVs, which means it has higher evaporative emissions. BYD says it welcomes an official review of the Qin, which is its best selling sedan, and the Song, which is its best selling SUV. Both companies saw their stock prices take a hit on the news.
2024 F-150 HAS 2,500 FEWER PARTS
Ford says it has a $7 billion cost gap versus its competitors and is searching for all kinds of ways to cut costs as fast as possible. One way is reducing product complexity. For example, the Explorer now has 1,900 different build combinations. That will be slashed to only 23. The Expedition has 800 build combinations that will get cut to only 32. Once that’s done it will free up 85,000 square feet of assembly plant floor space, which will allow more work to be in-sourced. The 500 different wiring harnesses the company uses across its entire lineup will get cut to only 14. That alone will save half a billion dollars a year. Kumar Gaholtra, the head of Ford Blue, says when the new F-150 comes out later this year it will have 2,500 fewer parts than the outgoing model, simply through better design.
ICONIC CATERHAM GOES ELECTRIC
Caterham, which is known for its lightweight, open-top touring cars, is dipping its toes into EV waters. It’s showing off a prototype EV Seven that it will use as a development concept. It features a 240 horsepower eAxle supplied by a company called Swindon Powertrain and a battery pack with 40 kWh of usable space. That setup is about 70 kilograms or 154 pounds, but it provides a 0-60 time of 4-seconds, which is about the same as the ICE version. The company doesn’t give a range estimate, but said the car should be able to drive on track for 20 minutes, charge for 15 minutes and then be able to drive another 20 minutes. To be able to handle that kind of cycle it uses an immersion-cooled pack that’s capable of charging speeds of 152 kW. And it’s not stopping with one EV, Caterham will show another fully electric sports car concept in “the coming months.”
LORDSTOWN’S HAIL-MARY STOCK SPLIT
Lordstown Motors wants to kill two birds with one stone. It’s doing a reverse stock split. For every 15 shares of its stock you own, now you get one. That will boost the price of each share to more than a dollar. The EV startup was threatened to get delisted on the Nasdaq exchange because its shares fell below the minimum $1 requirement. If it got delisted, Foxconn, which builds Lordstown’s trucks, said Lordstown would breach its $170 million investment deal. And if Foxconn didn’t fulfill the rest of the deal, Lordstown would have to file for bankruptcy. Maybe the stock split will save the deal, but Foxconn hasn’t commented on whether or not it’s satisfied.
YEP, WE SURE DO LIKE THAT CAR
Baojun, which is part of the GM-SAIC-Wuling joint venture, is launching an updated logo in China and will first be featured on the all-electric Yep, which just went on sale. That’s its boxy, little baby SUV that ranges in price from a little over $11,000 to almost $13,000. The car even comes with a screen on the back tailgate that can display messages and it looks like you can get upgraded versions with unique wheels and white-wall tires. Yes, white walls! But does anyone else think those look like Chrysler wheels from the 90’s or is that just me?
SUPPLIERS FACE EV DARWINISM
The EV revolution isn’t just a threat to legacy automakers. Suppliers face an uphill battle, too. Automakers want to become more vertically integrated and bring more work in-house. And they want to do most of the coding for their software defined vehicles. That could shut suppliers out of a lot of future business. So what kind of strategy will suppliers need to develop going forward? That’s going to be the topic on Autoline After Hours later today. Michael Robinet from S&P Global Mobility, and Keith Naughton from Bloomberg will be on the show. So we invite you to join John and Gary when the show goes live at 3 pm eastern time.
And that’s the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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Comments (31)
May 25th, 2023 at 12:18 pm
Does anyone else see the irony in a sulfur-based battery that would get its sulfur as a by-product of oil refining? I mean I know we will not get away from using oil completely but I just found it somewhat ironic.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:34 pm
Reducing build combinations to save money, be more efficient in production and improve quality is something GM did in the late 80′s. That is when option packages really came into vogue. Before that, I recall them saying that there were over a million ways you could build a Cutlass Supreme, even though they were only selling about 100,000 a year at that time. Most customers will be fine with the change and it should save Ford a ton of money. Very surprising that they had not already done this!
May 25th, 2023 at 12:35 pm
The 2,500 parts headline is a shocker. That is a lot of items to take out while still delivering a vehicle with the same look and utility as before. Pretty impressive effort at Ford!
May 25th, 2023 at 12:36 pm
@1, yes, that was the exact same first thought I had!
May 25th, 2023 at 12:38 pm
I just have to say, the change in the Baojun logo is not a step forward. The old one looks much more refined and interesting. I am sure it cost more to produce, but the new one looks like a highway sign logo.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:39 pm
California legislators are really dumb. Do they really think automakers are going to tweak their ICE engines each year to achieve a moving emissions target that changes each year? No they know an engine will be used; say 6 years they will target the most stringent requirement at the end of the 6 years. Which will add much more cost to vehicles now. Typical models have a 4 year span they should be changing emissions requirements at a minimum of 4-year increments.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:40 pm
@1, there are plenty of other sources of sulfur. That is just the most interesting and ironic one for this particular application.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:46 pm
6 I meant maximum of 4 years
Ford has always operated in a inefficient manner when it came to design. They operated the passenger car and truck divisions like two separate companies and often times Truck would design a component that was already being used in the pass car group but with 1-dimension different. Creating a whole new part and tooling. Reducing the complexity of their vehicles is only half the battle but should save them a bunch.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
That Caterham looks like an awful lot of fun to drive! The 20 minutes of driving isn’t wonderful, but since it was “on the track” maybe they weren’t telling us the speeds remained over 100+ mph. I’d be okay with that.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
The Number of Build Combinations, Complexity and Parts is just mind boggling! There should only be three trim levels per any vehicle, Base, Premium and Limited. No Wonder the OEM’s are having such issues down sizing and streamlining manufacturing.
If a customer or dealership wants a specific or custom built version of a vehicle(s) it should be done as a “Special Order” through the factory.
I believe the majority of automotive buyers could be very satisfied with one of the three trim levels which I mentioned above. This would reduce build complexity, improve build quality and reduce manufacturing cost.
I dislike the fact that Tesla only offers Black or White seat coverings in their vehicles. This is probably one reason their profit margins are higher than the automotive industry average.
May 25th, 2023 at 12:56 pm
“Automakers want to become more vertically integrated and bring more work in-house.” For software it makes a lot of sense to do it internally, it gives you complete control, but you need employees with that job skill. In the IT world there is this constant battle of do it internal and staff up or farm it out for what executives and high racking managers think/believe will save money. In my experience its bad news to farm it out. You lose some control and the product is inferior to what can be done internally. Your internal employees know more about what is need, they care more about the product, and they have more skin in the game.
For hardware isn’t it going to be more problematic for GM, Ford, and Stellantis? Since they are union shops, the more work they bring in house, means more union labor, which is more expensive.
May 25th, 2023 at 1:02 pm
10 I agree that the complexity is much easier to cut as so many options are standard features anymore. You expect to get power windows locks and AC, automatic and a touch screen radio with blue-tooth on even the most basic of vehicles anymore. Offer a medium trim with your heated power seats some sensors and cameras better speakers and then your high trim with moon roofs, cooled seats, driving or parking assist etc.. Then maybe one more platinum addition where you get all and maybe some exclusive options like trim specific interior colors or materials. Special wheels that kind of stuff.
But like you stated some options can be installed at the dealership and they should reduce those choices from the factory and make them dealer add-ons.
May 25th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
Sulfur should not be going to landfill. It is easily converted into fertilizer for agriculture.
May 25th, 2023 at 1:14 pm
I expect that corporate culture is different in China. Much younger, it probably doesn’t have the ‘play nice’ public culture that exists in western countries between competitors. Remember the shock when Chevrolet went directly after Ford with a metal toolbox thrown into their aluminum bed?
Also, we don’t know if they had already informed the Chinese government and were told to myob as BYD is such a Chinese icon.
May 25th, 2023 at 1:17 pm
On the topic of reducing the number of build combinations to save money. You can go too far and shoot yourself in the foot. I will use the Honda Ridgeline as example. Everyone now is all wheel drive and 3 of the 4 trim levels force you to have a sunroof. All wheel drive and the sunroof add $3,000 to cost of the vehicle. I can go any of the Ridgeline competitors and buy a fairly loaded truck without being forced to buy things I don’t need and save lot of money. This is one of the reason the Ridgeline doesn’t sell very well.
May 25th, 2023 at 1:27 pm
Huge piles of sulfur at the Port of Vancouver for export I believe for fertilizer, a lot comes from sour gas plants takes sulfur out to make it “sweet” natural gas, small quantities uneconomic to handle hence landfilled?
May 25th, 2023 at 1:35 pm
OH Great, you will have the same interior color as 50,000 other GM pickup trucks, all seats will be the same and the packages will include options that are most profitable to the manufacturers and not everyone will want like in the 80’s the GM luggage rack on the trunk lid that could only hold about 50 pounds.
May 25th, 2023 at 2:14 pm
Anyone want to bet that cutting out all those parts won’t drop the price at all ? You’ll just be paying more to get less. #8 That goes for Ford cars as well. model to model there would be little that transferred from one to another. example is bell housings each Ford engine back in the day had a different pattern . So if you wanted to swap a trans especially a AT you’d have to find the right one . Meanwhile Chevy made every bell housing from a straight 6 to a 454 V8 the same MT or AT . It drove me nuts to get parts . The reason why hot rodding Chevys was much cheaper than a Ford
May 25th, 2023 at 2:24 pm
Regarding Great Wall public badgering their competitor – I wonder if they already tried the back door approach you mention Sean, with no interest. Perhaps appealing to public dismay is the way to go instead of criticizing the Chinese government, that’s what I’d choose to do too.
#6 – the annual reduction is the target average, i.e. gradual changes for every new model, and launch or increase sales of low emission vehicles or EVs.
May 25th, 2023 at 2:56 pm
2,10,17 etc.
Car companies dealt with millions of build combinations, back when technology we now have barely existed, to make keeping track of things easier. Why is a few hundred combinations now too many?
In the mid ’60s, you had a choice of about 20 paint colors, 8 interior colors, 6 or 7 engines, a few rear axle ratios, with or without door edge guards, and much more, both mechanical and cosmetic. Already, you have to get options packages with stuff you don’t want, and a choice of either grey or grey for the interior of many vehicles. Ordering a car in the ’50s to ’70s was great fun, going through the choices. Now, there’s little to choose from, except black, white, or which shade of grey paint.
May 25th, 2023 at 3:04 pm
15 I recently read about the upcoming new Chevy Colorado, and 4wd will be mandatory with 3 of 5 trim levels. The 4WD adds to the price and hurts mpg, and few need it. Also, the extended cab will be gone. Toyota will be the only choice for those wanting a “mid-size” pickup with a box longer than 4-5 feet.
May 25th, 2023 at 4:34 pm
Fall 1956. Our family showed up for church, in our new 57 Fairlane with white walls. Quite a big deal back then
May 25th, 2023 at 4:59 pm
22 We had whitewalls on a ’55 Dodge, but they didn’t stay white very long. You needed to scrub them constantly to keep them white.
May 25th, 2023 at 7:42 pm
I would be surprised if this “revelation” complexity, is as a result of the chip /material shortage and the build up of BEVs at Ford. Farley had already said that they were taking out a lot of complexity in the current generations of the Mach-E and Lightning. So it only makes since that they would apply this way of thinking on the next gen F-150 and it’s variations. Yet, I think a much of the complexity I a particularly model may have more to do with just trim. Vehicles built to operate in different markets in the US, for example, may have different packages that cater to that market. I remember purchasing a compact sedan, that came with a winter package, i.e., I live in Michigan! While my thought a the time was that it amounted to just floor mats and puddle lamps on the side mirrors. But, maybe it also meant a different calibration to the tracks or so other subsystem in the vehicle? The fact that Ford could pull that much out and offer essentially the same vehicle as they did with all that extra hard and software, is, as someone else said, mind blowing!
May 25th, 2023 at 8:32 pm
The car compananies will be helping the environment by removing all choice, so there will be no reason to buy a new one, if your current one still runs. Average lifetime willbe even longer.
May 26th, 2023 at 5:07 am
6 Lambo – Couldn’t it be that regulators propose to shift the vehicle mix towards less total emissions?
While I support limited incentives and sensible regulations for EVs and comparable vehicles, especially to support rapidly building critical mass, there is a thing as being too intrusive, never mind micromanagement.
We’re moving in the right direction, after all. And notably, for the first time ever, quote (source FT):
“Solar power was the ‘star of global energy investments’ with total spending expected to top $1bn a day, exceeding spending on oil production, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA “
May 26th, 2023 at 5:14 am
Kit, I don’t think fuel consumption matters enormously to most people, provided it remains in a competitive range, and doesn’t deviate too much from expectations.
It’s also one of the reasons I like the idea of useful hybrids (made possible by plummeting battery costs): electric power delivers a superior driving experience.
Never mind the present impossibility of completely replacing ‘fuels’.
May 26th, 2023 at 8:01 am
27 True, fuel consumption doesn’t seem to matter much to most Americans, given the vehicle mix on the road. As far as 4WD, I don’t want it because it adds to vehicle cost and complexity, even if it hurts fuel economy only a small amount.
I’m still impressed with how well the basic, scaled up Prius powertrain Toyota hybrids work. I just drove 1100 miles from Florida to Indiana, mostly ~80 mph in my FWD Highlander hybrid, and averaged 33+ mpg. It’s even better, probably getting twice the mpg of similar size non-hybrids, getting high 30s in a mix of short trip, and lower speed highway. If only they made a station wagon with the same powertrain, which would be less draggy and lighter, and getting even better mpg while driving better and being quicker.
May 26th, 2023 at 8:40 am
11) Most problematic with mechanical hardware vertical integration is cost. All the tooling, validation, and development cost have to be paid immediately if the OEM goes this way. If you have a supplier do certain products, then tooling and validation/development costs are paid for by the supplier and the OEM pays it back in the piece price of the part. That in effect gives the OEM an interest free loan of several billion dollars. Also, as you mention, if they cancel a certain product they don’t have to worry about what to do with any of the workers that support that product as it is the suppliers problem.
May 26th, 2023 at 9:55 am
Checking the build and price for the Toyota Sienna van, I find that there is no interior color choice at all for the lowest, LE trim level. It’s grey (cloth). For the next one up, XLE, there is of grey or “chateau,” which is beige. It’s vinyl. Should you need to buy a Bentley or Rolls-Royce to get what you could get in a Ford, Chevy, or Plymouth in 1965, real choice of paint and interior colors?
Even in 1989 you had color choice in mainstream vehicles. My ’89 Caravan has a blue interior, and I’m pretty sure red was available, along with black, grey, and beige.
May 26th, 2023 at 10:17 am
30) Grey and Beige and sometimes black seems to be the only “choice” people get these days. There are a few cars where white is an option and those cars stand out just because the interior color isn’t grey, beige, black. I miss the vibrant hues of yesteryear. People were just more open to different vibrant colors and patterns back then. They were just more fun back then. Could you believe GM once approved of the seat patterns in the 1993 Camaro Indy pace car? They would never even remotely think of approving such a seat pattern today.
https://camarofinders.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/1993-Camaro-Indy-Pace-Car03.jpg