AD #4419 – 1.5 Million Humanoids By 2035; BYD, Geely Want F1 Team; Cybertruck Gets 2 Month Reprieve

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

1.5 MILLION HUMANOIDS BY 2035
This might sound a little crazy to say, but it won’t be long before it becomes commonplace for all of us to see humanoid robots walking around in our daily lives. J.P. Morgan says there will be 300-400,000 humanoids in the U.S. by 2030 and 1.5 million by 2035. They’ll be largely used to make up for labor shortages in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, as manufacturing costs for humanoids get close to parity with labor costs. It says that one robot working two shifts could save $100,000 a year compared to hiring two workers. But our sources say that at today’s low production rates, humanoids actually cost anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000. BMW is using some humanoids from Figure AI at its plant in South Carolina, but it’s leasing them at a subsidized rate that’s close to labor rates. Figure says the biggest market will be in health care and in the home. It plans to lease humanoids that will do all your cooking and cleaning for about the same cost as a monthly car payment.

MERCEDES SAYS ICE GOOD FOR 15 MORE YEARS
The EU wanted to ban the internal combustion engine in 2035 in its CO2 battle with climate change. But now it’s going to ease up on its CO2 restrictions, and that prompted Mercedes Benz CEO Ola Kallenius to say the IC engine will be around for another 10 to 15 years. He says there’s plenty of customer demand for them and that they’ll continue to build them as long as there is sufficient demand. We think the IC engine will be around a lot longer than that. Maybe not in Europe, but in many markets around the world, we think the piston engine could last well into the middle of the century, and maybe even longer if low carbon fuels become available.

JLR HAS TO DESTROY CONFISCATED BYD FILES
As we reported earlier this week, BYD offices in the Netherlands were raided by court appointed officers who were looking for evidence that BYD stole intellectual property about the Land Rover Defender to develop the Ti7 SUV, which is supposed to go on sale in the UK early next year. But now a Dutch court has ordered Jaguar Land Rover to destroy the files that were seized during that raid. It must provide BYD with independent confirmation that the files have been destroyed within 24 hours of their destruction or face fines up to $550,000. The court ruled that JLR doesn’t need the files to support its claim. While this is good news for BYD, it still faces the claim that it infringed on JLR’s intellectual property.

BYD, GEELY WANT F1 TEAM
Speaking of BYD, FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem revealed that it has held talks with BYD and Geely about joining Formula 1. While the FIA says if it does expand to a 12th team, it wants a Chinese manufacturer, though it isn’t actively seeking another team and it will only consider a proposal under the existing FIA rules. Ben Sulayem said he also discussed having BYD take over another team. However, BYD says it’s only interested in starting and operating its own team.

CYBERTRUCK GETS 2 MONTH REPRIEVE
Well lookie here. The Cybertruck will live on a little longer than expected. Last week, Elon Musk said Tesla will stop producing the truck “around the middle of next year.” But after backlash from upset fans, Elon Musk posted on X yesterday that “production will be extended through the end of summer 2027” to “work through more of the Cybertruck order backlog.” Translation: the Cybertruck gets a two-month reprieve before it gets the axe. Here’s where it gets interesting. Tesla tuner Unplugged Performance is offering to take over the existing production line. It says it will give first priority to the Cybercab, which is built at the same plant, and would run Cybertruck production “at no cost to Tesla’s floor space, headcount, or focus.” In exchange, Tesla would earn a license fee plus FSD and robotaxi network revenue for every vehicle built. And Unplugged isn’t just interested in the Cybertruck, it says it would also build a three-row CyberSUV and an unmanned CyberCargo hauler. As of now, Elon Musk and Tesla haven’t responded to the offer.

MAGNA LAYS OUT GROWTH STRATEGY TO 2030
As we’ve talked about on this show and on Autoline After Hours, car sales in the global auto industry stopped growing around 2017. The industry sold more cars a decade ago than it does today. So how do you grow your company if the industry isn’t growing? Magna, the giant Canadian supplier, laid out its strategy to the investment community yesterday. The company says it has a history of growing faster than the market and will continue to do so through innovation, more content per vehicle, by attracting new customers and getting into new markets. A key part of that strategy involves designing modular systems that integrate parts together. Magna says it can reduce part count on a car by 10,000 parts. That approach also provides a 50% improvement in manufacturing efficiency, 35% less build time, and a 40% reduction in floor space. Magna says it will grow sales 2-4% on a compound annual growth rate through 2030.

AI CAMERAS CATCH WELD DEFECTS
We love reporting on new manufacturing techniques and this one from a company called Skillreal caught our eye. It’s using AI powered cameras to inspect MIG weld points on car bodies. The cameras look at the welds real time and compare that to the original CAD drawings to make sure they match perfectly. It can catch defects like porosity or burn through in the welds, as well as excess welding. Skillreal, which is based in Israel, says in one application it freed up 42 operators from doing any inspection, and boosted daily output 24%. It’s working with Siemens to integrate its cameras into welding lines.

HELLA CEO AMERICAS ON AAH
Before we go let me remind you to join us this afternoon for Autoline After Hours. Our guest will be Jeorg Weisgerber, CEO Americas for Hella, and we’ll be talking about what he sees happening in the industry from a supplier’s point of view. Joe White from High Speed Rodeo will also be on the show and helping us put the news of the week into perspective. So join John and Gary when the show goes live at 3 pm eastern time on our YouTube channel and the Autoline website.