They call it Peak Auto. New car sales have hit their peak in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Despite strong population growth in the U.S., new car sales are the same as they were a quarter of a century ago. Here’s why.
Red Alert: New Car Sales Have Stopped Growing
Add to all that the fact that there are fewer and fewer desirable, affordable (read: ICE) vehicles for consumers to consider as the industry (at the behest of federal and state governments) tries to force-feed impractical, expensive EVs down our throats and you have a perfect storm of capital misallocation.
I was curious and searched for European statistics. What I found in this millenium was:
a peak of 19.6 million in 2007
a minimum of 12.4 million – in 2022 (latest @goodcarbadcar.net, ’23 numbers are probably out)
Interesting.
2007 was of course the year before the Global FInancial Crisis, precipitated by grossly underregulated lenders.
Your comment on used cars is a huge factor in this trend. I believe it is a bigger factor than you alluded to. Today’s vehicles are MUCH higher quality than in the 60s 70s & 80s. Back then, a car with 100,000 miles was ready for the scrap yard (and often repeatedly left the driver stranded in its final years). Today vehicles easily last twice as long with much higher reliability. The need for consumers to purchase a new car today is lower than in decades past because the quality of a 3 to 4 year old car is so good. I remember Bob Lutz said he even prefers to buy used cars (vs new) on your show a couple years ago. This is a huge success story for the consumers and a new environment for the auto companies. They need to figure out how to survive in this new environment (without goofy heated seat subscriptions).