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Runtime: 12:14
0:00 GM Says EV Costs to Drop $25,000 By 2025
1:10 China’s IM LS6 Targets Tesla Plaid
2:20 CATL Skateboard Hits 5.9 Miles/kWh
3:15 Fisker Desperate to Save Cash
4:07 Hyundai Group U.S. Sales Up Strong
5:20 Cybertruck Debuts to Cheers & Boos
8:27 Nissan To Stop Building Leafs In U.S.
9:01 VW ID Sales in China Growing
10:05 Lithium Prices Plummet
10:45 Daimler Uses Its EV Trucks in Logistics
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
GM SAYS EV COSTS TO DROP $25,000 BY 2025
GM is struggling to ramp up production of its EVs, but it still expects to turn a profit on them in 2025. Chief Financial Officer, Paul Jacobson, said GM will hit an operating profit margin of about 5% including clean energy tax credits. He also said higher production volume will improve margins. Jacobson said that GM’s cost per EV unit will be about $20,000 lower in 2024 than they were this year and that will go down another $5,000 per vehicle in 2025. That’s GM’s costs. It doesn’t mean all EV prices will drop that much, but even so, it’s a stunning revelation. Part of the drop comes from falling battery material prices, which GM says will fall by $4,000 a vehicle next year. And more on that later in the show.
CHINA’S IM LS6 TARGETS TESLA PLAID
A Chinese automaker called Innovation In Motion, or IM, and is partly controlled by SAIC just launched a sedan called the LS6 that it says it wants to compete against Tesla’s Model S Plaid. It has some pretty impressive specs, but we think it still falls a bit short of the performance Tesla. It has a semi-900-volt architecture that allows peak charging of 396 kilowatts, which adds about 360 miles of range in just 15 minutes. The top of the line model comes with 787 horsepower and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers an hour in 3.5 seconds. An entry level version with a 500v architecture, 314 horsepower and a 71-kilowatt-hour battery pack starts at only $30,000. Inside the LS6 features giant screens and a steering yoke. We’ll probably hear more about IM because that’s the company that Audi is buying its new EV platform from.
CATL SKATEBOARD HITS 5.9 MILES/KWH
Speaking of EV developments in China, CATL, the largest battery maker in the world, came out with its own skateboard platform for electric vehicles. It boasts a 1,000-kilometer range, or about 620 miles. It has an efficiency rating of 10.5 kWh per 100 kilometers, which is an astounding 5.9 miles per kilowatt hour and has got to be the best in the world. It also charges pretty fast. 5 minutes of fast charging adds 186 miles of range. All the critical components, including batteries, motors, electronic controllers, suspension, steering and braking are integrated into the skateboard to come up with a lightweight, low cost design. That includes cell-to-chassis packaging for the battery.
FISKER DESPERATE TO SAVE CASH
EV startup Fisker desperately needs to save cash, so it’s slashing its production. It will build only 10,000 vehicles in 2023, down from the 13,000 to 17,000 it previously forecasted. At its prior rate of production, the company only had about 7 months of cash left, and with high interest rates and investor wariness of EV startups, it will be hard for the company to get more capital. Fisker says building fewer cars will help free up $300 million of working capital. Its shares rose 7% on the news but even so, the stock is down 78% this year. It’s trading at only $1.58 a share compared to $28 at its peak two years ago.
HYUNDAI GROUP U.S. SALES UP STRONG
Most automakers in the U.S. will report their November sales later today and on Monday. But the Hyundai Group beat them to the punch. And no wonder it wanted to. Hyundai, Kia and Genesis all set sales records. Hyundai was up 11% with sales of 70,000 vehicles. Kia was up 3% with more than 58,000 units. And Genesis jumped 20% to nearly 6,000 cars and SUVs. Once all automakers report their sales, analysts expect the industry total to be up 10% with a SAAR of about 15.4 million.
CYBERTRUCK DEBUTS TO CHEERS & BOOS
It’s two years later than intended, but Tesla made its first deliveries of the Cybertruck to retail customers yesterday. Public reaction ranged from cheers to boos. Some people loved it, while most can’t get past the radical styling. Like Ford’s Lightning and Chevy’s Sliverado EV, pricing for the Cybertruck is coming in significantly higher than initial announcements from the company. The base RWD version will have a starting price of just under $61,000 before destination charges and any incentives. But that truck won’t be available until 2025. The first versions to launch next year are the AWD model that starts at roughly $80-grand and the Cyberbeast, which comes in just shy of $100,000. No word on battery sizes just yet, but the RWD model has an estimated 250 miles of range, will do 0-60 in 6.5 seconds and have the ability to tow up to 7,500 pounds. AWD bumps range up to 340 miles and towing to 11,000 pounds and drops 0-60 to 4.1 seconds. The 845-horsepower tri-motor Cyberbeast has 320 miles of range, will do 0-60 in 2.6 seconds and also has 11,000 pounds of towing capacity. When Tesla first announced the Cybertruck, it said it would have over 500 miles of range. But in order to get close to that figure, it’s also offering a range extender, which is an additional battery pack that takes up about ⅓ of the Cybertruck’s bed. It’s estimated to boost the range of the AWD model to over 470 miles and the Cyberbeast to over 440 miles. Elon Musk says this is intended for long trips or when towing. One of the most important aspects of the Cybertruck that I think too many people are glossing over is that Tesla switched to a 48-volt system for its power electronics, meaning things like headlights and interior components. A system like this allows you to send a lot more power to those electronics without raising the current, which means you can use much thinner and lighter wiring. It’s estimated that Tesla could cut the amount of wiring in the Cybertruck by 70%. Another first for the company is bidirectional charging. This includes the ability to send power to your home or another EV, which can also be done through a set of plugs in the bed that put out up to 9.6 kW of power. Rounding out the highlights of the Cybertruck are a new steer-by-wire system and 4WS as well. But with models finally hitting customer hands, I’m sure it won’t be long before we’re learning even more.
NISSAN TO STOP BUILDING LEAFS IN U.S.
Nissan will not build the next-generation Leaf in the U.S. Automotive News reports that US production of the current gen will end in 2025 and the next gen will be built in England. That makes a lot of sense to us. Putting all that production in one plant will slash manufacturing costs. And even though Leafs made in the UK won’t be eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit for retail customers, it can still be applied to cars that are leased.
VW ID SALES IN CHINA GROWING
Looks like Volkswagen might be starting to turn the corner selling electric cars in China. Last month it sold 15,000 of its ID family of EVs, with the ID.3 accounting for 12,000 of the total. That’s VWs best EV sales month ever in China and it COULD be close to making a profit on them. Remember, Tesla did not start posting a net profit until it began selling roughly 17,000 Model 3s a month. However, sales of the ID.3 in China languished until VW slashed the price to under $18,000. So VW probably needs a lot more sales to make a profit on that car. A new
ID.3 is about to hit the market, along with the upscale ID.Next. And VW desperately needs to sell a lot more EVs in China. It used to be the biggest car company in the country but is losing market share every month.
LITHIUM PRICES PLUMMET
The price of lithium in China isn’t just tumbling, it’s falling off a cliff and the rest of the world tends to follow China. Prices are already down nearly 80% this year to a little over $16,000 per metric ton and analysts predict they could fall by 30% or more next year. The problem is too much supply. Companies expanded manufacturing to keep up with demand, but now that demand is slowing down, including in the energy storage sector. And an increase in recycling and new battery chemistries could also have an impact on lithium demand.
DAIMLER USES ITS EV TRUCKS IN LOGISTICS
Daimler Truck North America announced it is integrating electric trucks into its own logistic operations. It will initially deploy four Freightliner eCascadia trucks that will pick up parts from various supplier locations in the Pacific Northwest and deliver them to Daimler Truck’s consolidation center in Portland, Oregon. The parts will then be shipped to its manufacturing and aftermarket parts distribution centers across the U.S. and Canada.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day and I hope you have a great weekend.
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48 volt for Cybertruck 48 volt for everybody yahoo it’s about time should have been here 20 years ago. Seems at the turn of the century it was just around the corner???
Dave – This is another example of legacy systems already in place that hold automakers back. It’s a big headache to change over tooling, production and components to 48 volt, so no one has gone all-in until now. If Tesla’s returns on a 48-volt system are as significant as its gigacastings, I think we’re going to see more automakers follow again.
Large commercial trucks have or still use 48volt systems but they use 2 12 volt batteries, does the cyber mess use two batteries – more weight or a special 48volt battery- more cost or a different system?
Buzzard Large trucks are still 12V Their two batteries are either 6V wired in Series or two 12v wired in parallel.
When I had a Diesel pusher motorhome I had 4-6V batteries. So a combination of parallel and series wiring. I dont believe any large trucks are 48V but the last one I drove was a 2002 model.
We should soon learn more, but I’m guessing that Tesla will regulate the ~400 volts from the big battery down to 48 volts, and then regulate the 48 volts down to the 12 volts and lower needed for a lot of the electronics. I’m assuming they won’t use any incandescent light bulbs, so they won’t need to custom make 48 volt bulbs, or use power regulated down for 12 volt bulbs.
If they do run everything off of the big battery, they will need to have a system to remove all load when the battery charge gets below a certain level, if the vehicle is parked for an extended time.
Update: This article says they will use a lithium ion 48 volt auxilary battery.
https://insideevs.com/news/656775/tesla-switch-48v-voltage-system/
I was thinking Tesla might regulate the ~400 volts from the big battery down to 48 volts, and then regulate that down to the 12 volts and lower that much of the electronics will need. I’m assuming there won’t be any incandescent light bulbs.
Anyway, I just found that this article says they will use a 48 volt lithium ion auxiliary battery, rather than regulating down from the traction battery. Either way, they will need to remove all load from any lithium battery when the charge gets below a certain level, as if the vehicle is parked for an extended time, or the battery will be destroyed.
https://insideevs.com/news/656775/tesla-switch-48v-voltage-system/
In todays report, it showed to different EV assembly lines, one for Fisker and one, I believe was either Tesla or VW. The Fisker line seemed to be so far behind in their use of people and equipment, where as the Tesla/VW line had a lot more tooling to not only make the assembly faster, but be much easier on the human part of the build process! Not having as many robotic/machinery assisting with the vehicle construction may bring down initial costs, in the end, though, the assembly will take longer and they may have more issues employees suffering repetitive motion, injuries, as many of the legacy automakers experience many years ago! It was many of those healthcare costs, that negatively impacted those OEMs and added some so much to the cost of the vehicles they made. While that may be something that is not on the radar of many upstart automakers today, especially those as cash strapped as Fisker is today. Yet, it might be something that catches up with them sooner that they may be expecting!
The IM LS6 has an interesting look to it. I can’t say that i like it, but it’s not entirely unappealing to my eye! While they may bill it a sedan in the vein of the Model S, it seems to be more SUV/CUV/four door coupe, to me. I don’t think the color is doing it any favors in the visual department.
The CATL skateboard platform sound impressive and the concept car that was seen in the still photo, looked like it was ready for prime time! The question is, how much would a vehicle riding on that architecture cost in the real world? Is it scalable?
I just read that Williams F1 is keeping Logan Sargeant. I was a little surprised, given how consistently he was beaten by his team mate. Maybe Liam Lawson, who did great as a sub for Ricciardo in a few races, isn’t available. Also, maybe there is a “Daddy’s Rich” component in Logan’s keeping the drive. Anyway, I hope next season has real competition at the front, unlike this year.
Fisker is assembled by Magna, a specialty lower volume manufacturer. The need for flexibility is the major factor in their assembly. I think when the volume is over the 50,000 per year mark, then production tooling would get a lot more automated and sophisticated.
I find it interesting that Fisker’s solution to save cash is to make fewer cars. Imagine how much cash they could have saved by (a) having the idea, (b) raising investment and (c) doing nothing. Kind of like paying farmers to not grow a crop.
wmb – Fisker doesn’t build any vehicles. It contracts manufacturing out to other companies as a way to help keep spending down. In the case of its only EV, the Ocean, it’s made by the supplier Magna in Austria. And its planned next model, the Pear, is supposed to be built by Foxconn in Ohio where the Lordstown Endurance was made. Fisker’s approach is called “asset light” and we consider it one of the better ways for a startup to get off the ground. However, in my opinion, Fisker is making the mistake of pouring the assets it does have into future programs before getting production and sales figured out with the model it actually does have on the market. At this point I would be surprised if the Pear makes it into showrooms.
It’s probably time to move to 48 volts. With all the added electrical loads on a modern car, including the evil start-stop, 12 volts is well past its prime. The internal printed circuit boards on almost all electronics is not run on 12 volts (usually 5 volts) so it’s not a big deal for manufacturers to make the switch IMHO.
Replacing the traditional lead-acid battery in vehicles, regardless of voltage, will create problems. We were told when looking at a hybrid Tucson that its 12v battery was lithium ion and you had to start the car every 3 weeks to prevent it cratering. No trickle charging. We go away for several months so we got an Outback instead and use a Battery Tender. No problem.
Albemarle, Toyota hybrids use a lead-acid 12 volt battery. It is charged from the big battery, but only when the car is turned on. It would run down in a few weeks if the car wasn’t driven. I disconnect it when the car is parked for a few months, and it still has charge when I reconnect it, sometimes 7 months later. I turn off the power to my garage when gone for an extended time, so don’t use a tender. I suspect if the 12v lithium battery of the Hyundai hybrid is disconnected, it would be ok for several months, but I don’t know how convenient it would be to disconnect.
I don’t mind the way the evil stop-start works in my Mini and Cayman, but I usually switch it off, because the starter and ring gear have a finite life, and using them many times as often doesn’t sound good for their life expectancy. The engine frequently starts and stops in my Toyota hybrid, but the motor that starts the engine is permanently geared to the engine. No pinion/ring gear engagement involved.
I made two similar posts speculating about Testa’s 48 volt system, because the first one disappeared when I edited it. It reappeared later.
Sean/Albemarle — Thinks for the reminder, I had forgotten that Fisker was using contractors to build their vehicles. It seems that the second assembly line was able to work some much faster, having all the equipment they needed on hand and readily available, being a benefit for the process! Finding the proper balance between development costs, production costs and the cost of the end product, can be a tough nut to crack! Who knew that building cars was so hard?! LOL
I wish Fisker luck. Even if their new products are ok, they might have a hard time washing away memories of the pretty awful Karma that was heavy, expensive, noisy with the engine running, thirsty when running on gas, and which had little room inside, even though it was big, about the size of Tesla S, and almost as big as a Mercedes S-Class.
Looks like legislation that was introduced afew months ago will be voted on this week (the CARS act). Which will strike down pending federal regulations targeting gas-powered vehicles and prohibit any future electric vehicle (EV) mandate. The CARS act (Choice in Automobile Retail Sales Act) would block the EPA regulations, which are part of the Biden administration’s broader effort to expand EV adoption in the U.S. and fight global warming by curbing carbon emissions.
The Act was proposed after the EPA proposed its most aggressive tailpipe emissions ever. If the rule is finalized, a staggering 67% of new sedan, crossover, SUV and light truck; up to 50% of bus and garbage truck; 35% of short-haul freight tractor; and 25% of long-haul freight tractor purchases could be electric by 2032, the White House projected. Pricing many Americans out of the market and cede leadership of this industry to China.
Sounds like reality is starting to set in when it comes to EVs.
Lambo,
Sounds fine to me. Mandates to me stifle innovation. Why innovate when you can just mandate the things nobody wants. Just like insurance. Why bother innovating and making insurance better for everyone when you are mandated to have it no matter how terrible the product and company behind it are.
That “CARs” act is not serious. It will not get the needed 60 votes to pass in the senate, and Biden wouldn’t sign it. It’s safe to assume, though, that there will be major back tracking at the EPA when it is obvious that the proposals are not realistic.