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Runtime: 10:23
0:00 U.S. Autos Boost MPG, Slash CO2
1:04 Tesla Hitting Battery Production Hell
1:52 Can Tesla Sell 250,000 Cybertrucks a Year?
2:49 Chinese EVs Command 2X Pricing in Europe
3:30 VW ID.7 Falls Flat in China
4:52 Waymo Says Its AVs 6X Safer Than Humans
5:40 Chevy Colorado Bison Kind of Pricey
6:14 Hyundai Closes 2 Forging Plants
6:46 Suppliers Wary of Bidding on EV Programs
7:46 Haima’s Futuristic Looking EX-00 Minivan
8:42 Chevy ChatBot Recommends Ford F-150
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
U.S. AUTOS BOOST MPGs, SLASH CO2
The U.S. auto industry is setting records for improving fuel economy and slashing emissions, mostly because of more electrified vehicles. The EPA says light vehicles set a record high in 2022 for fuel economy at an average of 26 MPG. It said BEVs and PHEVs alone improved the average by 1.2 MPG. That’s a big deal. Previously, boosting fuel efficiency over the whole fleet by even just a few tenths was good news. The average fuel economy is expected to jump to 26.9 MPG when the next report comes out. Better still, emissions fell to record low. CO2 emissions dropped by 10 grams per mile to 337 grams per mile on average. That’s a 27% drop since 2004.
CYBERTRUCK HITS BATTERY PRODUCTION HELL
Looks like the Cybertruck launch is getting off to a slower start than expected. Reuters reports that Tesla is struggling to produce 4680 batteries with its new dry-coating technology. Right now it can only make enough batteries for 24,000 CTs a year, far short of the 200,000 – 250,000 annual sales target that Elon Musk has talked about. Nine different sources told Reuters that Tesla can’t hit mass production levels with the dry coating of the cathode. Even so, Tesla runs two 4680 production lines right now in Austin and it’s about to add 8 more over the next two years. So once it gets through production hell, it should have plenty of capacity.
CAN TESLA SELL 250,000 CTs A YEAR?
Now the question is, does it need that much capacity? Can Tesla really sell a quarter of a million Cybertrucks a year? That’s going to be one of the topics on Autoline After Hours later today. We’ll have Sandy Munro on the show along with Tu Le from Sino Auto Insights and Joe White from Reuters. The truck’s styling sure is controversial. Most people can’t stand it. But yet, two of the auto industry’s greatest designers heaped praise on it. The late Syd Mead, futurist and designer extraordinaire, said the Cybertruck changed the form language of pickup trucks forever. And Giorgetto Giugiaro, the famous Italian designer, calls the Cybertruck a masterpiece. He says it’s the Picasso of automobiles. So tune in later today to hear what our guests have to say about the styling on Autoline After Hours.
CHINESE EVs COMMAND 2X PRICING IN EUROPE
Chinese EVs are pouring into Europe for one really big reason. They can charge twice as much for their vehicles. For example, the BYD Dolphin costs $15,500 in China but it’s $39,000 in Europe. Tesla’s China-made Model 3 sells for 13,000 euros more in Europe than it does in China. Even though Chinese automakers double the price, they’re still selling EVs cheaper than what European automakers charge. Aside from shipping costs and a 10% import tariff, those higher prices are pure profit. And that’s why Chinese EVs are flooding into Europe.
VW ID.7 FALLS FLAT IN CHINA
Meanwhile Volkswagen is in deep trouble in China. Its ID family of electric vehicles just aren’t resonating with Chinese consumers. The ID.7 sedan launched last week and only received 300 orders in three days. That’s even though it costs nearly half as much in China than it does in Europe. Meanwhile, the BYD Song L, which launched on the same day as the ID.7, received more than 8,000 orders in three days. Car News China reports that VW is having trouble selling the ID.7 because it’s offering configurations that customers don’t want, so they’re waiting until the one they want is available. So, VW may have to cut the price, like it had to do with the ID.3 because of poor sales.
WAYMO SAYS AVs 6X SAFER THAN HUMANS
Even though GM Cruise is under attack in San Francisco for being a safety hazard, Waymo says autonomous vehicles are far safer than human beings. It released new research that shows its vehicles had 0.41 incidents that resulted in an injury for every 1 million miles driven, compared to 2.78 incidents for human drivers. That’s over 6 times safer. Waymo only compared its data to accident information from the areas where its vehicles operate, so it’s attempting to give a more apples-to-apples comparison. It says there would have been about 17 more accidents resulting in injury if a human had driven the same amount of miles as its vehicles.
CHEVY COLORADO BISON COSTS MORE THAN SILVERADO BISON
Chevy posted the price of the new top off-road trim line of the Colorado ZR2 Bison, and it’s kind of pricey. The package, which includes unique suspension, steel bumpers, skid plates and wheels and tires, costs an additional $12,000 on top of the ZR2, bringing the total price to just over $60,500, including destination charges. Surprisingly, that’s also about $3,500 more than the Bison package costs for the bigger Silverado pickup.
HYUNDAI CLOSES 2 FORGING PLANTS
Slowly but surely we’re seeing the impact of the transition to electric vehicles. Hyundai says it’s going to close two forging factories in South Korea, which is something we expected to see. About four years ago on Autoline After Hours consultant Paul Eichenberg predicted that forging operations were under the most threat from EVs because the average ICE vehicle has about 112 forgings, while the average EV only has about 5.
SUPPLIERS WARY OF BIDDING ON EV PROGRAMS
Just a year ago the transition to EVs looked like it was going to happen quickly. Today, sales of electrics in the US have slowed considerably, and that’s making automotive suppliers very wary of committing to EV programs. For example, suppliers invested heavily to make GM’s electric pickups only to see most of that program delayed for over a year. Suppliers don’t get paid until they ship parts, so that investment is a real drag on their finances. Ford convinced suppliers to triple their component production for the F-150 Lightning only to see sales stumble. Now Ford is cutting production in half, and most suppliers aren’t getting any price adjustments for the lower volume. This should be a warning sign to the industry. If suppliers drag their feet on bidding on new EV programs, that’s going to make the transition to EVs go even slower and cost more.
HAIMA’S FUTURISTIC LOOKING EX-00 MINIVAN
As we said earlier in the show, VW is struggling in China, but there’s hope that the ID.Buzz’s more retro design will be a hit with Chinese consumers. Even so, that model looks like it will be facing some competition. A company called Haima, which used to count Mazda as a partner, is coming out with an all-electric van in China next year, called the EX-00, that has a similar shape and style to the ID.Buzz. It’s actually a little bit shorter than the VW van and will offer an estimated 480 kilometers or just under 300 miles of range. The interior looks a bit cheap to me and the layout is a little wonky, especially the two different style seats in the third row. So, it might seem like the success of the EX-00 will come down to pricing, but unfortunately we don’t have that yet. (Image Credit: AutoHomeCar)
CHEVY CHATBOT RECOMMENDS FORD F-150
Generative AI, like ChatGPT, is the next big thing. But we still have a learning curve on how to use it. A Chevrolet dealership in California, Chevrolet of Watsonville, started using a chat bot for its customer service on its website. So someone asked the bot to write a recipe for the best pickup truck in the world, and the bot spit out a bunch of features that a truck needs to have. Then the person asked the bot to provide a list of trucks that met that list, and it spit out the Chevrolet Silverado, GMC Sierra, Ram and Toyota Tundra. Then the person asked the bot which truck it would buy and it recommended the Ford F-150 as a top choice. The Detroit Free Press broke this story and reached out to the dealership for a comment, but nobody is saying nothing.
Remember, this is Autoline’s last day of the year. We’ll be back on January 3rd and until then we wish you all Happy Holidays and a Fantastic New Year.
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Is Mary Barra a mole?
The missed EV sales targets will certainly make bidding a challenge. You think about any Cybertruck suppliers that bought equipment expecting to sell 200K parts a year and now trickling out 24k a year. Thats a lot of floor space and equipment that will be way underutilized.
What is the point of having AI if it’s not going to be truthful and provide a derived answer and not just the answer you want it to give? Could make competition a win or lose proposition.
Sean-Another great year of shows and wishing you, John, Gary and staff a great holiday break. Look forward to next years episodes.
Are they taking into account the coal and natural gas burned to fuel EVs when stating “CO2 emissions dropped by 10 grams per mile to 337 grams per mile on average,” or are they counting EVs as have zero emissions?
How does the Colorado Bison compare to the Gladiator, the Ranger Raptor and the new off-road Tacoma regarding content and capability? Once you do that, I think you might find that the Bison price may not be as far off the mark as it may seems.
Enjoy your vacation Autoline team!
Yes,Happy Holidays to the Autoline TV Team! Great shows this year!
Enjoy your time off, Autoline staff.
I’m looking forward to today’s AAH. It should be a good one.
Doesn’t just the “Bison” package for the Colorado cost more than the package for the Silverado? Could that mean that the ZR2 package for the big one adds more than for the Colorado, so the Bison package for the Colorado has more content?
Thanks for the year of content, Autoline (you are my everyday look at the automotive industry); wishing the whole gang a wonderful holiday season and time off; well deserved. See you next year.
“Cybertruck changed the form language of pickup trucks forever. And Giorgetto Giugiaro, the famous Italian designer, calls the Cybertruck a masterpiece. He says it’s the Picasso of automobiles.”
Yah? Well I’ll stick with museums for my Picassos. And changing the form language isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. I’ll take the subtle shape of my 1997 GMC Sierra any day. Just because they are “designers” doesn’t mean they’re right.
IMHO, if the CT had a more conventional styling (more RST, then say Ram or other standard mid or full-size pickups, but not Ridgeline), it would appeal to a wider audience, be easier with aftermarket outfitters (bed caps and the like) and things of that nature. I really don’t see buyers doing the serious kind of work that the CT is capable of doing. It’s more Hummer SUT, the Lightning Pro, and Silverado EV W/T or REV W/T. It is a show stopper, but would an owner be really interested in picking up mulch and pallets for his neighbor, with it, like full-size EV trucks coming from the Detroit Three?! I mean the CT has both shatter, resistant and is claimed to be bullet proof, but will probably look to dodge more rain drops, flying pebbles from passing semis, bird droppings, black walnuts and mulberries from the neighborhood trees! Yet, like that beautiful girl or boy next door, may spend more time looking good then working hard! What I wouldn’t give for I nice set of cheek bones! LOL!
Something seems off about the Chevy Chatbot story. Why wasn’t the F-150 on the list but got picked as the top choice? Seems like that chatbot has a way to go to make it creditable as a tool for choosing good pickup trucks.
Kate- I’m with you if I want art I’ll go to a museum. I think the CT is just as much a masterpiece as some abstract art. Certainly in the eye of the beholder. But I’m pretty sure I saw the same design visiting a 3rd grade class.
Thanks for another year of autoline, Happy Holidays,see you in 24,cheers
Merry Christmas Sean, John, Gary, et.al. You will be missed these next 2 weeks plus.
If Cybertruck is as “strong” as people let on, it will be a bigger hazard to other motorists than anything on the road, short of trains and 18 wheelers. It might not be that good for its own occupants, if it hits something hard and heavy.
BTW, the bullet proofness is for relatively low energy .45 rounds, not .223 or similar rounds commonly used with AR-15 type rifles.
Those people who consider Cybertruck a “work for art” seem to have rather strange ideas of aesthetics, at least to me. Maybe they also consider a Pontiac Aztec beautiful.
Kit- I met a guy camping with an Aztec and I got the chance to check the vehicle out. They were actually designed with functionality in mind foremost and had some really cool features. Similar to the CT they were designed with a camping tent specific to the vehicle that when attached and the seats folded down provided adequate sleeping for two. Lots of other neat features but too like built in air compressor and stuff that was ahead of its time back then, too bad the body design was so ugly. Speaking with the owner he said he only bought it because of its utilitarian features and since they weren’t selling, he got an amazing price on it. He admitted he knew it was an ugly car but really liked it other than that.
I knew someone who bought an orange Aztec, also knowing it was really ugly, but it was functional, and a good value. Even at MSRP, they were a good value, if you didn’t mind the appearance. The Buick version looked more like a regular minivan, but with hinged back doors.
What a person tells AI to create a data base is what it’ll spit out. If the programmer puts an opinion in, AI will take it as fact. Simple! AI can be influence like a person.
CT is art. Art, like a Picasso painting, just kind of sits around collecting dust as it is incapable of function. That is exactly what the CT is. It will sit around looking like a Picasso while everyone else is actually working.
wmb,
The Bison is meant to be a trail rider/mountain climber. The Raptor and TRX are meant to be desert pre-runners thus why they are fast with the crazy fox shock controlled soft suspensions. You do not want, nor can you be, fast when rock crawling. The Raptor/TRX are not really that good trail riding or rock crawling and that is where Chevrolet feels that they have a market differentiator. It may work for Chevrolet once the overlanding crowd sees the capabilities. For those who buy Raptors/TRX though, these are rarely used for desert pre-running and more for showing off to their friends. Ford and Ram have tapped into the racer boy crowd, not the overlanding crowd, with a hugely expensive and profitable truck. Time will tell if the overland crowd buys the Bison in big numbers to compete well with the Raptor/TRX sales.
Since almost no one uses pickup trucks for either off-road racing or overlanding, I’d think fast would be more appealing to buyers than rock crawling capability. Maybe Chevy should put the supercharged 6.2 V8 in the Colorado for a “special edition.”
Another ‘diesel-gate’, this time for Cummins (and RAM HD trucks). YouTube, if interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0lpqRVAldk
Happy Holidays to all of the Autoline crew and your families. Enjoy your time with your loved ones and we will look forward to 2024 with you. I hope your archives are working on this new platform; it was stocked full of great old shows, and the week between the holidays is usually when we dredge them up and enjoy the nostalgia!
Merry Christmas to all our regular commenters, too!
I don’t care what a Chapbox says, Chevy Silverado, overall, is a better truck. Ford brags so much about the F-150 that after a while, if it’s mention enough, people believe it!
Ram is the best big pickup for what most people use them for, commuting, soccer mom duty, grocery shopping, etc. It’s coil rear suspension makes it ride well, and have low road noise.
Joe — You are right, whatever pickup truck a buyer Loves is the best truck! Be it Silverado, Ram, R1T, F-150, Tundra, Titan, Ridgeline or Cybertruck! The best thing about all these trucks, is that the competition between them makes the next pickup out the gate better for the customer. This wa the point when the ModelS was introduced, for its competitors were not other EVs, but ICE vehicles. It had to carry its own weight as a compelling, Vehicle, and not look at a place doing it. It had to be a BEV that was as good as an internal combustion sedan! To me, this is what the CT has walked away from. The model S, 3, X and Y are revolutionary vehicles, yet they haven’t colored too far outside the lines compared to mass market vehicle styling. Whereas, and I mean no offense, the cyber truck seems to take itself a little too seriously, for what it is. It’s intent is to be a pick up truck, why does it have to look so much different from other pick up trucks? Is the model S a work of art? Whether we believe it is or isn’t, it’s still one of the greatest electric vehicles on the planet, hands-down! While I do take issue with the model X and it’s gullwing doors, but it’s still great at what it does. A pickup truck, as a work truck, is a tool and one of the bigger tools in the tool box! Does one need a work of art, to drive nails into wood?! The CT as it is, like the current Hummer HUT, is a show piece to be enjoyed as a feast for the eyes. Taken in that context, that chatbot, may soon be naming a different vehicle ‘best pickup truck”!
I saw AAH and found it very informative, but have to take issue with a statement made by Mr. Munro, which he has said a few times in the past. That being the collapse of the manufacturing company he was apart of, was due to the union and employees refusal to allow the company to bring robots into plant. His statement seems to rest all responsibility on the company going out of business, at the feet of the employees and does not hold the management responsible for any of it. Who is the saying that, even if other companies were successful by bringing them in, that particular company would’ve survived, with those leaders in place at saving the company?!. I’m not saying that the leaders of the company didn’t do their best to save the company, I’m just questioning whether or not, even if they had the robots, that that leadership personnel and those who were in charge, could’ve save the company? What we do know is that, the employees would’ve lost their job when they brought the robots in, just the same as when the company went under, when they didn’t! They would have lost either way! So the question becomes, should they just pack their bags and walk away, as the company kicks them to the curb and moves on without them? Or fight to hold on to the jobs they had job, to support his family and dedicated a large portion of your life to, for as long as he could?! One way or the another, with or without the robots, given time, those employees we’re going to lose! So you tell us Mr. Munro, witch is more important? The success of your company, or the men and women who have given so much of themselves to make your company a success?
What I think is different with the transition from ICE vehicles to EVs, is that (hopefully) with OEMs seeing the change coming, the reduction of personnel may come through attrition, with out the need to permanently or definitely layoff workers off. The argument has been that, with Evies, they will need fewer personnel to assemble all the various components and parts that going to a vehicle. With electric vehicles, having fewer moving parts and more compact motors, as opposed to big engines, more of the work be done on the software side as opposed to the hardware side. With ICE bands being moved back by several years, this will give Legacy and OEM’s more time to build up the software personnel side, as they ramp down on the assembly side. While Mr. Munro believes Tesla (and by extension Lucid) and the Chinese maybe 8-to-ten years ahead of legacy automakers, the legacy OEMs are years ahead of the buying public and has the bigger job of convincing then to “buy in” to the EV transition! For it would amount to a hill of beans if legacy automakers caught with Tesla today, if buyers were having separation anxiety with the ICE vehicles! It’s a balancing act for automakers. Catch up with Tesla and the Chinese, continue to build want people will buy AND convince future buyers to invest in the EV future.
I just saw an Ioniq6, probably for the first time, because it really stood out, with its dramatically sloping rear window, drooping trunk lid, etc. I don’t know how the rear seat room is, but the styling really stands out. It’s not for those who don’t want to be noticed.
wmb, I agree that the best pickup truck, or any other vehicle for a given person is what they “like.” Objectively, except for mpg, where the F-150 with the 2.7t does a little better, the Ram is probably best big pickup for how most people use them. Objectively, Ridgeline is clearly the best “mid-size” pickup for the way most people use them, unless you put Maverick in that class, and care about efficiency. In spite of that, the Tacoma is by far the best selling mid-size, even though, objectively, it is far from the best.
As far as Model S, it is a great EV, and is a hatchback, making it even better, but is not even close to an S-class, 7 series or A8 in actual luxury. Sit in them, look at them up close inside and out, and even drive them. Except for acceleration, which doesn’t matter once you are under 7-8 seconds 0-60, the S doesn’t drive particularly “better” than those others. We all buy what we want and like. I have a mix of practical vehicles, and not-so-practical sports cars. Many more people have big trucks they have no use for, but “like” them. It’s our money to spend as we want.
Kit — I am in agreement with everything you said above. Regarding the Model S, it may not be the best vehicle on the road, but, especially when it was originally introduced, it had to demonstrate that an EV can be a real alternative to and ICE vehicle. While Tesla’s are expensive, due to expensive tech, they are not luxury cars (premium at best). Though they are fast, they are not sports cars or CUV/SUV/Crossovers of any type. What I mean by them being the best, as Mr. Munro said, they are still the tip of the spear when it comes to the the vehicles built from! They are no means perfect and have issues of their own, especially perceived quality, fit in finish, and issues that legacy OEM’s have had sold for sometime. Then they go and give complicated gull wings to and SUV and an unusual shape/styling to their pickup and some of the technology used to bring the vehicle together, can be lost on some of the choices they made elsewhere. Can an automaker build a good, efficient and competitive EV and not be 8-to-10 years ahead of the pact like Tesla? I think so and they had better or they will not survive! Yet, if the industry can not move customers alone with them, it will not matter how far Tesla is ahead of them. Tesla’s future is also dependent on customer acceptance too! Yet, they are too small to motivate the general public to buy electric vehicles. So, they need other OEMs to help move customers, regardless of how they are ahead of the competition!
The S is the only Tesla that appeals to me very much. It looks decent, and has closer to normal controls than 3 and Y, but is still pricey, $77K plus shipping and handling, if you want a color and other than black interior. As it stands now, if I were in the market for an EV, it would probably be a Bolt, or a Hyundai or Kia if I wanted to spend more. That could change, day by day, as new ones hit the market. So far, though, still, no home charging at my condo, so no EV of any brand for me.
The old Chevy Traverse will continue on for a while alongside the new one. It will be called “Traverse Limited.” I would have expected “Traverse Classic,” like Ram Classic.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46120993/2024-chevrolet-traverse-limited-confirmed/
Sad to say, it looks like the archived Autoline Daily shows are not viewable before 2018. Not too much difference in the past 5 years worth of shows. I always liked looking back at the end of the year to watch old “future models” and predictions, as well as the common automotive interests of the day. I remember some of the older shows used Flash, but it seems like someone could adapt/transfer them to a viewable format for historical purposes since, after all, you are the #1 automotive resource of our day. Those old shows deserve to be preserved and accessible.
You can still read some spotty transcripts from before 2018, as well as watch a short Hall vs Hall from March 2012 about the Saturn Sky/Pontiac Solstice/Daewoo G2x/Opal GT platform.
I liked when all the old shows were listed by year down the right side of the screen, but I understand getting rid of that easy access since I’m probably one of the few weirdos that liked watching the old re-runs.
Have a great New Year’s celebration and see you for CES.
Nio intro’d a new, luxury EV flagship that’s similar in overall form factor to the Lucid Gravity. That kind of higher-riding, fastback sedan design makes a lot of sense. It also features a super-modern, attractive interior. How’s the Lyriq doing in China, I wonder?
I suspect all of the delays in production of Lyriq have hurt it, both in China and North America. I guess it’s more available in China, but a lot of new products are coming on the market. It has to be a very tough market. Since all EVs are pretty much alike, powertrain-wise, it’s features, appearance, and brand or nationality loyalty that sells the vehicles.
The newest Lyriq (RWD) Standard Range Luxury goes for 45K USD (with SuperCruise) in China, according to gm.
The cheapest Lyriq in the US is about $60K MSRP, without SuperCruise. It looks like the US Lyriq has a higher capacity battery, though, than the Standard Range one in China.
I read two articles about EV efficiency in Motor Trend, one regarding the biggest drop off in range from their EPA rating and another about which vehicles came closest to their quoted EPA range. The second article covered EVs that had tested within the last year and at a 70 mph. The thing that struck me was the several legacy OEMs that were closest to their EPA range and how far many of the upstarts were a go ways off from their stated range.
My real concern with EV’s is the amount of dependency it creates on China. There is a lot of talk about energy independence, but with China being the largest owner and producer of Lithium, Colbalt, Manganese, and Graphite it puts them in position to benefit the most from EV’s. Meanwhile our government has huge restrictions on mining and even shut down a Lithium plant in Minnesota. It’s like we are concerned with the impact to the environment but okay with it as long as someone else is doing it. We turn a blind eye to the slave labor and child labor used in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. as long as it’s not actually us doing it.
The whole electric Semi thing is a complete joke. Those batteries weigh 8000lbs and they need two so 16,000 lbs. A diesel engine is about 2800lbs so you lose @13,000 lbs of hauling capacity and so you need more trucks to move the same amount of product. If a company tries to put in a charging network for say 30-50 trucks that requires the same power as a small city. Your talking 50-60 megawatt applications. Places in California have already denied these applications due to the amount of power being asked for.
The data is in, and in Q4 of 2023, BYD sold more pure electric vehicles than Tesla.
I checked the Motor Trend article mentioned by wmb, at: https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/evs-with-the-best-real-world-range/
Could Tesla and Lucid be doing what Hyundai and Kia did a few years ago with gas vehicles, doing their own testing and lying a lot about the range of their cars? The two upstarts underperform their published range by a much bigger percentage than the others, at least at highway speed.
ALD is releasing a show today right?
Tomorrow, the 3rd. That’s was said at the end of this show.
From one of the articles mentioned above by wmb at: https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/evs-with-the-best-real-world-range/
It looks like Tesla and Lucid might be doing what Hyundai and Kia did a few years ago with gas vehicles, doing their own “testing” and overstating things.
Kit — What I thought was interesting and I will admit to, was that the upstarts/startups were out pacing the legacy OEMs on both power and range. Yet, MTs real world report would suggest other wise and that they are closer then i thought they were. While the upstarts may be 8 to 10 years ahead of the legacy automakers on tech, software and hardware, but where it matters most with consumers, there may not be much separation between them to the average buyer! Now, let’s be clear, these were MTs tests and a different organization may come away with different results and Lucid and Tesla can say that the EPA and similar government organizations around the world have agreed with their range numbers, but legacy OEMs may have an opportunity. Also the established automakers may not be as far off in vehicle development as the talking heads may suggest, at least not in the eyes of the public!
Motor Trend’s tests seem to say that Tesla and Lucid may not be much ahead at all, as far as powertrain. A while back, I read an article from, I think, a British publication that found Tesla’s range claims overstated more than most other EVs. I don’t know if they were using other government ratings other than EPA, or something else. I’ll see if I can find the article.
Here’s some highway range test results from Edmunds. I don’t know how carefully they did their tests, but the Germans seem to be the overachievers, and Teslas, as a brand, the underachievers.
https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html#chart
So, while Tesla may have the lead technologically (hardware, software, the components they use as outlined in the Autoline after hours recent with Mr. Monru), Mercedes, BMW and (if I’m not mistaken) Cadillac are closer to their stated range and Hyundai/Kia are matching Tesla with efficiency, according to MTs real world tests! If established OEMs can keep customers focused on the end product and use their years of assembly experience to champion a quality product, Tesla’s lead may not appear to be as great, especially as they work behind the scene to close the gap between them. I still think that styling and design will go a long way when it comes to buying BEVs, with price and range being just as important. Whether the vehicle uses ethernet wiring, or heavier cords may not matter much to the customer. Does the fact that the 2024 model year 7 Series is more technically advance then the newest Rolls Royce Phantom, make a bit of difference to the individual who is about to make a new Phantom purchase? I know that is an apples to oranges comparison, but my point is, to most buyers, what’s going on under the mental means nothing, if the end result meets the buyers expectations.
To me, Tesla doesn’t have a serious lead in anything, except charging infrastucture, and they are selling or giving that away. They have the very worst operator interface in their best selling Models 3 and Y. They still have a cult-like following, though.
Kit- I have to agree that the gap between manufacturers isn’t that great. Tesla taking on the 48-volt system is probably the biggest leap for the traditional OEMs. However, I would think that’s something they could adopt within a 2-year period. As for efficiency and battery technology that appears to me as anyone’s game. Tons of money is being spent on using various materials to lower costs and or improve range. Dry cell solid state and other options are still being developed. A start-up or OEM could lead the way in that arena as its just a matter of who stumbles across the best battery in the coming years. Maybe we will find out that its like the ICE and about as good as its going to get. But I think there are some promising things in development. I’ve said it many times; whomever develops the best battery is going to rule the market if they can get a patent and keep it under wraps. I don’t care if its VW, GM, Lucid, Tesla or some Chinese start up but if they can make a battery that’s 1/2 the weight or 1/2 the cost or double the range it would place them ahead of anyone else that day. They’ll rule the EV market at least for a while. My prediction is the battery breakthrough will come from a university or supplier and get bought for big bucks by an EV manufacturer. Unless its someone like Panasonic that will just build the batteries and sell them to all manufacturers making them a ton of cash.
Battery advances have generally come by accumulating small, 3-7% improvements over the years.
And there are a lot of parameters, though number one nowadays has to be cost / manufacturability.
Here are some 70 mpg test results from CR. A number of cars are not listed, but the general trend of what’s there is in line with what Edmunds found.
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/real-world-ev-range-tests-models-that-beat-epa-estimates-a1103288135/
Something that stood out in the Edmunds list was that the Porsche Taycan 4S beat its EPA rating by 59 %. Maybe that 2 speed transmission is of some benefit, other than its marginal performance benefit.