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Runtime: 9:47
0:00 Biden Admin Vague on ICE Emission Regs
1:17 2024 U.S. EV Sales Could Grow 43%
2:42 VW Teases ID.7 Station Wagon
4:20 China Price War Spreads to ICE Cars
5:22 Toyota Brings Back Land Cruiser to U.S.
6:30 U.S Vehicles Biggest Ever, Also Lowest CO2
7:35 Lincoln Offers In-Cabin Aromas
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
BIDEN ADMIN VAGUE ON ICE EMISSION REGS
Yesterday we reported that the Biden Administration is going to back off somewhat on the tough emission regulations for ICE cars. But we didn’t have any details. Well, today we know a little bit more about it. The EPA originally wanted emission regulations so strict that automakers could only meet them if EVs accounted for 60% of their new car sales by 2030 and 67% by 2032. Now, Reuters reports that with the new regs, EVs will account for less than 60% of sales by the end of the decade, but we don’t know how much less. It seems to us that the EPA and the Biden Administration are being deliberately vague about this. They don’t want to enrage environmentalists, or automakers, or car dealers or even the UAW. So they’re keeping it vague. The auto industry argues that EVs are still too expensive for most consumers and that more time is needed to develop the charging infrastructure.
2024 U.S. EV SALES COULD GROW 43%
And yet, while these rules are being delayed reportedly because of a dramatic slowdown in the sales of electric cars, that numbers are not as bad as everyone is making them out to be. Yes, it’s true that the growth of EV sales slowed dramatically in the U.S. last year, but they’re still growing. WP Browne Consulting, which does sales forecasting, predicts that EV market share will come in at 9.7% this year, up two percentage points from last year. It is also forecasting that EV sales will hit 1.57 million units, up from 1.1 million last year. That’s an impressive 42% EV growth rate. Browne forecasts that Tesla will sell 710,000 new vehicles in the U.S., while other automakers will sell 850,000–the first time that they sell more EVs than Tesla does. But the real story is, the EV segment is growing strong and far faster than any other part of the market.
This chart we put together shows EV sales numbers since 2020, and the % change from year to year. As you can see, the growth rate dropped off significantly last year. But if WP Browne Forecasting is right, then the growth rate is going to take a nice bounce upward this year.
| Year | EVs sold in U.S. | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 308,000 | |
| 2021 | 608,000 | 97% |
| 2022 | 918,500 | 51% |
| 2023 | 1,100,000 | 30% |
| 2024 (est.) | 1,570,000 | 43% |
VW TEASES ID.7 STATION WAGON
Speaking of electric cars, Volkswagen is teasing the latest addition to its EV lineup. Meet the ID.7 Tourer, a station wagon version of the fastback ID.7 sedan. VW describes this as one of the first estate cars in the upper mid-size class. Estate cars are what they call station wagons in Europe, and while wagons have pretty much disappeared in the U.S. market, they’re quite popular in Europe. VW released very few technical details about the car, but it is undoubtedly identical to the ID.7 sedan. What VW did say is that under ideal conditions the ID.7 Tourer will have a 685-kilometer range. That’s 425 miles. We estimate that under EPA testing in the U.S. that would translate to about 331 miles. But we’ll probably never know for sure, because we think it’s unlikely that Volkswagen will sell this car in the American market, even though other media outlets speculate it could be sold in the U.S. The car will come standard with an augmented reality head-up display, and seat massagers are available, and in Europe the base price is about $61,000.
CHINA PRICE WAR SPREADS TO ICE CARS
That price war in China shows no signs of slowing down, in fact, now it’s spreading to cars with IC engines. BYD recently launched updated versions of two plug-in hybrid models with a starting price of $11,000, which is lower than some of its ICE competitors. BYD is also gearing up to launch a new version of its Dolphin all-electric crossover that’s expected to have an even lower starting price. The model currently costs $14,500 in China and we’ll find out how much the new one costs when it debuts this Friday. The Dolphin is currently available with a 45-kWh battery that provides 420 kilometers or 261 miles of range based on the Chinese test cycle. The new Dolphin will also offer a 60-kWh battery with 520 kilometers or 323 miles of range.
TOYOTA BRINGS BACK LAND CRUISER TO U.S.
Two years ago, Toyota paused sales of the Land Cruiser in the U.S., but as you may know, that vehicle has a near cult-like following. So now the big, rugged SUV is back with an all-new design and powertrain. It has a boxier, more off-road look, like its Jeep and Bronco competitors. And it’s built on the same platform as the Tundra, Sequoia and Tacoma. It’s only offered with a 2.3L turbocharged hybrid engine that’s mated to an 8-speed automatic transmission. And while the purists will wish that there was a V8 under the hood, that four produces 326 horsepower and 465 lb-ft of torque. And it gets an EPA rated 23 MPG combined. It also features full-time four-wheel drive with center and rear locking differentials. The new Land Cruiser will arrive in dealer showrooms this spring with a starting price of $57,445 including destination charges.
U.S VEHICLES BIGGEST EVER, ALSO LOWEST CO2
Over the last 40 years the size, weight and horsepower of vehicles in the U.S. have increased significantly. According to EPA data vehicles are 25% heavier, their footprint is 6% bigger and the horsepower under the hood is up 100%. It’s not so much that the vehicles themselves have grown that much, as it shows how the market shifted so heavily from sedans to SUVs and pickup trucks. But here’s a fascinating tidbit. Even though vehicles have never been bigger and heavier and faster, last year they achieved the highest ever fuel efficiency and the lowest emissions. Over the last 5 years, the EPA says Toyota, Kia and Mercedes-Benz reduced CO2 emissions the most, while Mazda, General Motors and Honda increased theirs the most, all because of a shift to bigger vehicles. Obviously, all-electric automakers like Tesla have zero tailpipe emissions.
LINCOLN OFFERS IN-CABIN AROMAS
Don’t you love that new car smell? Well, how about getting a car that tantalizes you with a variety of different aromas? To enhance the in-vehicle experience, Lincoln is offering a curated collection of scents for the new Nautilus, which were created by perfumiers working in collaboration with Lincoln designers. A total of seven scents are available and they’re designed to help improve the owner’s mood while driving. The scents come in a cartridge that features a microchip and is plugged in the center console. With a touch of the center stack touchscreen, you can infuse your cabin with anything from an earthy sense of cedar to hints of juicy melon. Breathe deep my friends, does life get any better than this?
CAR CRITICS ON AAH
Oh, one more thing before we go. What are the best cars on the road today, and which are the worst? Which automakers are coming out with the coolest features, and who’s cluttering up the dashboard with gimmicks that don’t really work? That gives you a flavor of what Autoline After Hours will be about this Thursday. We’ve got two of the best known car critics coming on the show, Henry Payne from the Detroit News and Mark Phelan from the Detroit Free Press. They probably test drive more new cars than just about anyone on the planet, and they have a thing or two to say about what they like and what they don’t. So join us for what promises to be a very engaging and highly opinionated free for all.
And that wraps up today’s report. Thanks for watching.
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That sounds like a good AAH coming up.
It looks like they downgraded Land Cruiser a lot, but the price is lower.
The addition to thr fleet of more EVs, and Toyota and H/K hybrids, has brought down CO2 emissions.
What, Jon, might be “peak auto size”? Will automakers decide to try 4-row SUV’s? Full cab trucks with full ickup beds (or has an automaker already hit that threshold?)..
The vagueness of the changes to the ICE ban is likely due to the uncertainty of the EV industry. Environmentalists should be happy the segment is still growing, and automakers and the unions should be happy the transition may be less forced. Overall, the best way is allowing for the transition to happen more naturally. In an election year Joe can’t be ruffling to many feathers I’m sure he gets enough just speaking to his bookcase and arguing with his desk.
When it comes to sales growth of EVs It really should be presented in terms of target. So, if the target to be fully EV is 2035 and we are at 8% we have 11 years to achieve another 92% or 8.3% of total sales each year. That would tell the story better than 45% increase over last year’s ambiguous number that got us to 8%. I think they know that target was a pie in the sky goal.
We seem to be learning that people who buy BEVs want sedans and crossover/hatchbacks, while people who buy pickup trucks aren’t too interested in BEVs. The local Ford dealer has 10 Lightnings in stock, according to their web site, and some of them are lower trim, under $60K.
Kit- I said that two years ago that they were building EV trucks that no one asked for. It was done because truck market is hot and they sell. Plus they can easily pull the 50-60K needed for an EV and battery packaging was simple. And Cybertruck got lots of attention. No one ever bothered to see if a market actually existed.
Now they will see that those 250K Cybertruck reservations will amount to 60K trucks and dwindle from there.
Seems this EV and AV pursuit is a hefty money pit at the moment. Toyota isnt looking so dumb now, are they?
Likely a billion dollar cost avoidance.
We’ll see if Toyota can hold on to its Chinese market share. However, making so much money on what are affordable cars is an impressive feat that’s worth acknowledging.
Toyota’s China Business Weighed on Japanese Carmaker’s Global Sales in 2023
DATE: FEB 07 2024
I saw the CyberTruck Sunday at the mall in Sarasota (rainy day; nothing else to do). Crazy to see fan boys drool over it, ignorant of the warts (poor visibility; frustrating low speed maneuvering from the 4WS; surface rust on the unprotected SS body panels; razor sharp edges; etc.). Despite being at the land of John Ringling, I can only think of the quote that many claim originated from PT Barnum… “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
The government is going about encouraging EV sales the wrong way, if they want people to buy EVs they should hint that the government wants to outlaw them and then watch every MAGAT in the country scream holy hell and rush down to their local EV dealer and snatch them off the lots before Big Brother disallows their sales. Works for gun manufacturers every time.
I think the CyberTruck likely spurred a lot of frenzied activity. And had Tesla’s rosy projections during ‘Battery Day’ come to pass, there might have been some grounds for concern. But as I’ve opined more than enough, trucks that aren’t destined for a well-known routine aren’t ideal targets for electrification.
Agree with Kit, looking forward to AAH! Sounds like a great topic.
Drew, was the Cybertruck just parked in the lot by a shopper, or was it “on display” by Tesla people? I’ve seen a couple of them that they have for testing at Kennedy Space Center, but haven’t seen them up close. It will be interesting to see how well they actually sell, when production is ramped up.
It seems that Toyota must still have parts shortages, or they are intentionally limiting production of vehicles. The fairly large dealer near me has zero Sienna vans, and one Prius, which is sold, but still at the dealer waiting to be delivered. They wouldn’t want huge inventory, but you’d think they’d want vehicles available to sell. They have a lot of Tundras, though. Pickup fans don’t want EVs, but also, they want mainly Ford, GM, and Ram pickups.
Ziggy, that’s a good thought.
Kit,I’ve noticed the Toyota commercials on tv in my area always end with “order yours today” makes me wonder if they are trying to move buyers in that direction?
Ziggy’s humor although amusing is a far cry from pushing anyone into EVs. If the gov really wanted to spur the transition they need to fix the concerns which comes back to initial cost and charging locations. But they need to realize EVs are not a replacement. They should be considered a supplement to transportation. Using them where they make sense is key. Forcing them onto the general public is a recipe for disaster.
Merv, those “order yours today” ads are crazy. I just talked to a Toyota salesman today, and you still can’t order Toyotas, even the ones made in Kentucky and Indiana.
I too am looking forward to this weeks AAH.
The Lincoln scents can be diffused at regular intervals quickly or more slowly or a ‘puff’ just at start up at 1-3 level strengths determined by the vehicle settings. Two of the three scents that come with the vehicle from the factory are nice while one of them approaches little old lady perfume scent. (John you should be the official spokesperson for this feature, you have a flair for it). I was unaware of the total amount of available scents, thank you John.
Has anyone else seen reports of the orange rust stains on the Cybertruck outer surfaces if exposed to rain? This could be really bad PR if true!.
Regarding the Cybertruck and claims of rust, Germans would say that another pig is being driven through the village. Some people are so avid to share anything negative (never mind page visits…), they’ll pounce and leave the business of applying Occam’s razor to others.
The case of ‘rusting Cybertrucks’ can be ascribed to external contaminants. Tesla has done some weird things, but that’s not their level of stupidity.
Kit, the CT was on display at an inside mall.
Sean, I know the rust is related to external contaminants. That’s why the panels should be coated (and to also reduce the ugliness of finger prints). As Tesla chose not to coat the panels, I do ascribe this to their stupidity. And I suspect I know why they don’t coat the panels… a glossy coat will highlight the waviness in the panels… which was very visible in the store (probably why the Tesla store was dimly lit).
The updated Model 3 was also on display. I could be interested on a M3, but for 3 inviolable… grunge dark wheels (slightly brighter wheels are nearly a $2k option and makes an enormous dent on range), the price for an extended range RWD models WITHOUT autopilot and without FSD was $60k, and I don’t want to be viewed as anyone’s “fan boy”.
I’m no a fan of Cybertruck, or Tesla in general, but if the Cybertruck skin is any kind of 30X stainless steel, I doubt if it is “rusting.” It might get looking ugly, even uglier than it starts out, but I doubt if it will get rust holes in it.
I’ve bought after market wheels a few times, but I like the factory wheels I ordered on my Mini, which were one of the no-cost options on the Cooper S. I assume Tesla uses a standard bolt patten and offset, but you never know.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/HdRpdCTva8cDiRTG6
In the unlikely event I bought a Tesla, it would likely end up with aftermarket wheels, at least given what they have now on Models 3 and Y.
Drew, the updated Model 3 Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive (341 miles EPA range) starts at $47,490 – how do you arrive at $60K?
The ‘flat’ panels of the Cybertruck just make it more charming, right? 😉 This design may become really old in a couple of years. Before that, we’ll likely start seeing all kinds of ugly wraps proliferate.
It would have been both lighter, and faster to market with aluminum panels. Does it matter? It’s not a global vehicle – Tesla’s coming Model 2 is far more important.
I’m neither a Tesla fan nor opposition. Same goes for EV’s in general. I comment on EVs and Tesla as I would any other company or product. I do respect Tesla and the amazing accomplishments they have made. It’s extremely difficult to make it in the auto industry these days and they have become a true contender that I doubt if the other start-ups will ever see. I still have my doubts on Rivian, Fisker and Lucid. Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them absorbed by another manufacturer in the next 10-15 years.
I do find it funny that any criticism of Tesla is met with a tremendous amount of support. However, I think the traditional truck buyers were similar as F-series guys defended Ford over a Chevy and visa-a-versa despite them both having their share of failures. I don’t and didn’t expect Tesla to hit home runs right out of the gate and they are experiencing some learning curves but overall have done an amazing job. As I have been pretty critical of EVs it’s not because I’m against them or don’t like change. In fact, I find them to be quite exciting and they have lots of potential that is yet undiscovered. I think someone got the idea they are the replace all gas and I’m just more practical that at least for the next 20 years or so they are a great supplement to transportation and should be viewed that way. I believe we are going to find even better ways to use EV technology and when prices come down I can see lawn equipment and other industries really making an impact with battery powered products.
I can easily visualize a day where I have a bank of common batteries that are light enough to lift and I place one on a belt to run weed wackers, edge trimmers, hedge sheers, leaf blower maybe even a chainsaw. Then I throw two or three for a push mower and use 4 or 5 to run a riding mower. Put 6 in my motorcycle and maybe even use a few to supplement the range on my car. When they start to think in terms that the customer will use then we will have something to be excited about.
I remember painted DeLorean’s, mostly red and white, on display in Las Vegas casinos when I was there for a model airplane event when the cars were new. As Sean W. said, it will be wraps for the Cybertrucks, but a few will be painted. Aren’t wraps short lived, like 5 years or so, if they are parked outside all the time? I could be wrong, or maybe wrap durability has improved. I don’t know how well paint sticks to stainless still. I suspect a special prep is required, or the paint will fall off.
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I remember painted DeLorean’s, mostly red and white, on display in Las Vegas casinos when I was there for a model airplane event when the cars were new. As Sean W. said, it will be wraps for the Cybertrucks, but a few will be painted. Aren’t wraps short lived, like 5 years or so, if they are parked outside all the time? I could be wrong, or maybe wrap durability has improved. I don’t know how well paint sticks to stainless still. I suspect a special prep is required, or the paint will fall off.
Sean W, the price online creeps up fast. RWD extended range, destination charges, charging connectors, white paint and trim, and an extra $3000 for the smoke-n-mirror “fuel saving”. The price rises to over $52k (sorry, my poor memory remembered a high $50s price… my bad).
Seems the rust spots seen on Cybertrucks are actually contaminants on the skin rusting, accelerated by the stainless conductivity, not the stainless steel itself. Biggest culprit so far is iron dust from rail car brake shoes. Interestingly, owners are saying the best way to keep it clean is to use a metal cleaner like Bar Keepers Friend… something you’d never use on paint.
I think your graph is incorrect about 2023 EV sales being up 30%. I believe the correct percentage is 20%. If the sales numbers for the years are correct then 2023 sold 183,500 more EV’s than 2022. That is a 20% over 2022 sales, not 30%.