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Runtime: 9:54
0:00 U.S. Households Hold $1.6 Trillion In Auto Debt
1:25 China Tariffs A Benefit & Threat
2:15 NHTSA Investigates Zoox, Waymo
3:23 Kyle Vogt Starts Robot Company
4:44 VW Leaks Some Specs of U.S. ID. Buzz
5:34 Latest Rankings: The Top 10 Global Automakers
6:51 Cryopump Refuels Hydrogen Trucks In 10 Minutes
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
Sean is out for the next three days to cover the media launch for the new Ford F-150, so I’m filling in until he’s back.
U.S. HOUSEHOLDS HOLD $1.6 TRILLION IN AUTO DEBT
So what kind of households in the U.S. are buying the most cars? The latest report from Equifax shows that households with incomes of $100,000 to $250,000 have the highest number of outstanding car loans, about 9.3 million of them. Their average loan is $30,500. Next comes households with incomes in the 50k to 100k and there’s about 5.3 million of them. Their average loan is for $27,500. And then comes households with incomes under fifty grand. There’s 1.6 million of them, and their average loan is for $25,800. Interestingly, people who make over a $1 million a year have an average loan of $44,400 and there’s only 71,000 of them who currently borrowed money to buy a car. By the way, the total amount of automotive borrowing debt in the U.S. is $1.6 trillion, including new and used vehicles.
CHINA TARIFFS A BENEFIT & THREAT
We reported yesterday that the Biden Administration would be putting a 100% import tariff on imported cars from China. And last night the Administration made it official. Automakers in the US will welcome that kind of protection right now. They’re behind the Chinese and need time to catch up. But the danger with such a high tariff is that automakers could become comfortable and complacent with a protected market. They could lose their innovative or competitive edge. So maybe it would be better to put a time limit set on that 100% tariff, such as giving the American industry a decade to get more competitive, and then slowly phase it out. There’s a good argument to be made for putting those tariffs in place. But there’s also a good argument about keeping the heat on for competition.
NHTSA INVESTIGATES ZOOX, WAYMO
Autonomous vehicles are still going through teething problems. And the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is getting stricter about monitoring them. It’s opening investigations into two AV startups. The first involves Amazon’s robotaxi unit, Zoox. NHTSA says it has received two complaints of its vehicles braking suddenly that resulted in rear-end collisions. The other investigation involves Waymo. NHTSA says it has received 22 reports of its vehicles involved in crashes or violating traffic laws. Both investigations into Zoox and Waymo are in a preliminary evaluation where the safety agency requests info from the companies. After the evaluation, NHTSA can either close the investigation or start an engineering analysis, which can lead to a recall. Both companies say they’re cooperating with the investigation, but Waymo pointed out it now delivers 50,000 autonomous rides a week and has racked up millions of miles of driving with a good safety record.
KYLE VOGT STARTS ROBOT COMPANY
And in other robotaxi news, GM’s self-driving unit Cruise has resumed tests on public roads in Phoenix with a safety driver on board. And it says it will gradually expand tests to the surrounding suburbs. This is the first time Cruise has operated its vehicles on public roads since it halted operations last October after an accident involving a pedestrian in California. Shortly after, the state suspended Cruise’s permits to operate its vehicles, and that led to the company founder and CEO, Kyle Vogt, to resign from the company. But now, just like Cruise, Vogt is back on his feet. He’s co-founding a new robotics company called The Bot Co. with a former Cruise technical advisor and Tesla’s ex-head of AI tech. They say they’ve raised $150 million so far. Instead of developing robotaxi’s, they’ll develop robots to help with household chores.
VW LEAKS SOME SPECS OF U.S. ID BUZZ
We’ve got a few more details about the U.S. version of the VW ID. Buzz electric minivan before it goes on sale later this year. It will be offered in three trims with a 91-kWh battery and 282 horsepower for rear-drive models and all-wheel-drive models crank out 335 horses. A number of colors will be available including two-tone options. Other features include a standard 12.9-inch infotainment screen, driver assistance technology, an available head-up display, panoramic glass roof and captain’s chairs. Those are some of the highlights. Volkswagen announced it will reveal the ID. Buzz’s range and pricing closer to its launch.
LATEST RANKINGS: THE TOP 10 GLOBAL AUTOMAKERS
Do you know who the biggest automakers in the world are? At least by sales? You probably could guess some of them, but the rankings keep changing. So here’s the list of the top 10 car companies based on how many vehicles they sold last year. Toyota tops the list with 10.3 million vehicles. The Volkswagen Group is in second place with 9.2 million. The next may surprise you. The Hyundai Group with 7.3 million, followed by another surprise: Stellantis, with 6.2 million. General Motors comes next with 6.1 million, but with an asterisk. That includes all those little Wulings that are sold in China, and GM is a minority shareholder in Wuling. Take that out and GM’s total drops to 4.9 million, but it’s still in 5th place. Ford is next at 4.4 million, followed by Honda at 4.1. Nissan comes in 8th place with 3.3 million vehicles. And then comes BYD with 3 million, the first time a Chinese car company has broken into the top ten list of global
CRYOPUMP REFUELS HYDROGEN TRUCKS IN 10 MINUTES
Hydrogen and fuel cells generate a lot of debate over whether they’ll ever catch on, but some companies are working on the technology to make them become an everyday reality. The latest is an effort between a company called First Element Fuel and Bosch Rexroth, who developed what they call a cryopump. It can pump liquid hydrogen into the tanks of a Class 8 truck in only 10 minutes, which is about the same time it takes to fill one with diesel fuel. A cryopump station costs half as much as a station that pumps hydrogen in gaseous form, it has a much smaller footprint and uses one-fifth the amount of electricity to power it. First Element Fuel says one cryopump could fill up 2 trucks simultaneously, with 10-minute refills. No one in the battery electric world is talking about that kind of turn-around. Hydrogen is still too expensive, but First element says the cryopump effectively cuts the cost in half.
And with that we wrap up today’s news report, thanks for watching Autoline Daily.
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Are GM and Ford happy about the 100% tariff on Envisions and Nautiluses?
was going to whine about the lack of power of the new ID Buzz but then remembered my ’73 Westphalia had 52 hp so it has plenty of power
Dave,
The ID buzz curb weight is 2300 pounds heavier than the 73 Westfalia. Even though you have more power with the ID Buzz, you will likely have a similar experience to the westy.
Other publications talk about tariffs in Chinese EV’s, not all vehicles built in China. So far the only one effected is the Polestar 3. Info here seems to be incorrect?
@John, “But the danger with such a high tariff is that automakers could become comfortable and complacent with a protected market. They could lose their innovative or competitive edge.” IMHO these tariffs are needed because they have lost their competitive edge long ago. Except for American powerhouse TESLA. I am not aware of any other American automaker being relevant in the global market. TESLA Model Y is the world’s most sold vehicle, but which Ford, GM or Jeep/RAM product sells well outside of North America? Nothing comes to mind.
The ID Buzz weighs ~70% more than a ’73 Westy, but has more than 5 times the power, so will be much quicker and faster. The Westy would be much quicker on a long road trip, though, with 250-300 mile range per 5 minute fillup.
Kit — I think the tariff is on EVs and not ICE vehicles.
wmb,
That’s right. Thanks for the reminder. I guess Geely/Volvo/Polestar are the ones who won’t be happy.
@Kit I thought Volvo and Polestar have North America-based production, Kit. Or not?
I really have to wonder why anyone with over a million dollars in yearly income would finance a vehicle unless there is some sort of tax break or incentive to do so. My guess is those people own their own business and lease the vehicles and write off the lease payments as a business expense.
Still think VW should have taken the 1960s bus design thrown it in the copy machine with a 10-15% increase in size and released that.
Robotaxi suddenly braking – then getting rear ended. The insurance companies around here consider a rear end collision,the fault of the driver in the back
Wim, Technoking Elon himself said that Tesla isn’t a car company anymore. And I think we can almost all agree here that only an intense focus on attractive products keeps firms building cars in business long term.
Tesla investing a cool $10b in AI this year alone may pay dividends down the road, but at the price of an ageing model lineup in the present.
When I look at all the cool EVs Chinese companies are designing, with the world’s cheapest batteries on order from CATL et al. (the Tesla stand looked pretty forelorn at Shanghai), then the option of standing still just doesn’t exist.
@Wim, Volvo has some North American manufacturing, but the Polestar 2 is from China. I don’t know what the plans are for future Polestars.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-04/MY2024-AALA-Alphabetical-4-11-24.pdf
Lambo, some of those high income people might be financing because it is cheaper. When I bought my 2022 Highlander, I planned to pay cash, but the dealers get some kind of kickback from Toyota financing, so the price of the car was $2000 less if I financed. I had to wait 6 months to pay it off completely, but I still probably saved $1800 by financing.
The “incentive to finance” might be a SE Toyota Distributors Crooks thing. I never ran into that with Toyotas bought in Indiana.
car sales numbers ,are those to the dealers or customer
This 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles has got me to thinking (a dangerous proposition for me). It is said that Chinese OEMs are looking at selling, arguably, high quality EVs in western markets, for nearly one 1/3 to 1/2 the cost of BEVs in that local market. How much, then, are local OEMs saving, by having their ICE vehicles assembled in China and then shipped back to the home market to sell?! Would it be by the same amount?
Secondly, how much will a 100% tariff dissuade a potential buyer from purchasing a Chinese made vehicle? As pointed out in todays story and other reports on AD, leaders are saying that the EVs coming out of China, are high quality and very inexpensive. As an example, let’s say the BYD Seal competes with the Model 3, but sells for $22K and has quality that is equal to or exceeds that of the Tesla. A 100% tariff would only put the price for a Seal, on equal footing as the Model 3! While there may have been a time when Chinese product were seen as having dubious quality, competing western OEMs are standing up and taking notice of the superior nature of both the hard and software contained in these vehicles! Others may call out China’s human rights violations, as to the reason why they would never purchase a vehicle made on that continent. Yet, this has not stopped some of those same individuals from paying top dollar for the latest iPhone that Apple puts out and is made in that country. My point is, what is to keep someone from buying a Chinese made vehicle, that has similar quality to and cost the same as the Model 3, as a result of the 100% tariff? If they bought the Tesla, they’d pay the same amount of money, right? If you look at it sideways, I could look like the government is charging a 100% tariff on Chinese made vehicles and then giving up to $7500 back to locally made, EVs!
To Kit’s point, the OEMs that would be hurt most by the tariff, would be the Volvo, Polestar and Lotus models made in China. If the EX30’s price doubles, who would purchase it at $70K? The EX90 was suggested to cost between $60K to $80K, but who would buy them at $120 to $160K? The difference with Lotus is that, if the prices doubled, for their power and performance, they too would then be price competitive with their closest competitors. I recently saw a YouTube video, comparing the Lotus Eletra to the Urus. The version of the Urus had about 600 hp and a price of $330K, while the Eletra R had nearly 1000hp and cost $150K (euros). Doubling that price only puts the cost of the Eletra, closer to the Urus. The person that might be hurt by that price jump, would be someone who was hoping to cross shop Eletra R with a Mercedes EQS SUV AMG. The Eletra’s price before the tariff would have had the two BEVs prices pretty close, but not any more!
…..one of the areas that western CEOs point to as one of the Chinese OEMs strong suites in their EVs, is there software. So what happens when buyer learns of that the China made EVs, that has a simular quality of local products, but better digital software then the local manufacturer, but cost the same as the domestic? Again, I do see the tariff being that big of an incentive, to keep stop someone from buying a Chinese made vehicle, if it still cost the same as the rival domestic.
wmb- the tariff/price may not be the biggest deterrent to keep people from buying Chinese made EVs. Especially if they can still bring them in close to the price of the competition. But when the price gets almost equal you have to wonder will brand recognition take priority. BYD is going to be a new unknown brand to most people and who knows what their warranty, dealership service and sales will be like. If they try something like Kia did with 100k mile warranty while the others don’t that could help. But I still think it would be a hard sell to dump 300K on a Chinese Eletra vs a Mercedes EQS or the Lamborghini Urus. At that amount of money, you are paying for the name to some extent and Eletra R hasn’t yet earned that respect.
I will say that I don’t agree with the Tariffs being collected and just going to the treasury dept and added to the general fund. It should be used for these EV tax credits and charging infostructure.
My guess is the 100% tariff is going to send a clear message that they need to set up shop in NA. So, will our government allow that or is that as risky as the Tik Tok app? If they do then I wonder what the price point of a BYD will be then.
I doubt that much will be collected from those 100% tariffs. It will serve the intended purpose of keeping Chinese EVs out of the US market, as the miniscule, in comparison, 25% “chicken tax” has kept essentially all imported pickup trucks out, except from Mexico where the tax doesn’t apply.
I suspect government officials are now contemplating changes to NAFTA 2.0 they might try to negotiate when/if BYD or other Chinese auto makers set up shop in Mexico.