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Runtime: 11:12
0:00 Tesla Officially Launches Robotaxis
1:19 CATL Jumping into Robotaxis
1:58 Autoline Poll Results on Robotaxis
3:43 Foreign OEMs Will Lose More Share in China
4:35 Chinese Will Grow in EU, Europeans Will Shrink
5:19 Filosa Makes Mild Management Change at Stellantis
6:06 UAW Missed Out On $80 Million
7:12 Natural Hydrogen Could Be a Game Changer
8:48 What? An Electric Motorcycle from General Motors?
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
TESLA OFFICIALLY LAUNCHES ROBOTAXIS
Elon Musk predicted that Tesla would have complete autonomy as early as 2017, but yesterday the company finally launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. A small fleet of Model Ys without a driver are now roaming a roughly 30 square mile area in the southern part of the city. If riders choose a destination outside of that geofenced zone, the vehicle will drop them off at the edge of its operating area. So far only a small group of Tesla supporters have been invited to use the service, which is limited to two riders and currently costs a flat rate of $4.20. Also, the rides are limited to a certain amount of time, the vehicles won’t operate if weather is bad enough, and there’s a human monitor in the front passenger seat as well as a remote vehicle operator. There have been a few incidents already, but many users say that the system operates smoother, like coming to a stop and going over speed bumps, compared to Supervised FSD. We haven’t seen any word yet as to when Tesla might launch its robotaxi service to the public.
CATL JUMPING INTO ROBOTAXIS
In other robotaxi news, CATL, the biggest EV battery maker in the world, formed a new joint venture to deploy Level 4 autonomous driving technology, including robotaxis. It teamed up with Chinese companies Hello and Ant Group to establish Shanghai Zaofu Intelligent Technology, which will develop vehicles off of CATL’s skateboard platform. CATL will also provide the batteries, while Hello provides the mobility services and Ant Group, the AI and software. However, no word on when it might kick off operations yet.
AUTOLINE POLL RESULTS ON ROBOTAXIS
And all this ties in nicely with our latest Autoline Poll. We asked our Patreon and YouTube members what they think about robotaxis. 6% say you have used them, love them and will use them again. 48% say you can’t wait to try one. But 34% say you have no interest in robotaxis. While the remaining 12% have other opinions.
A C Held says, “There is probably a use case for them somewhere, but I don’t think there is a compelling need, given the plethora of Uber drivers.”
And Jeffos makes a great point, “Unless robotaxi rides are significantly less than Uber, I’m not sure what this fixes for the consumer.”
QuietStormX has this advice for everyone, “Take Public Transportation like the bus or subway, like in the D.C. Metro Area. Short bus rides from subway station and free transfer too… No extra charge.”
And Scott Stephenson has some good insight into Tesla’s robotaxi. “I think it’s a great idea. But the idea that the actual tiny RoboTaxi vehicle with no windows and a low seating position is gonna attract buyers and riders? I’ll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, [Zoox] is getting it right. A high visibility, easy exit vehicle that feels like a high-tech airport shuttle? That’s the one I’ll choose.”
We want to thank our members for providing their insight. And if you’d like to provide your opinions to the auto industry through our Polls, please consider becoming a member, which only costs a few dollars a month and gets you access to a lot more information.
FOREIGN OEMS WILL LOSE MORE SHARE IN CHINA
Foreign car brands are going to continue to lose market share in China. According to a new study by AlixPartners, local Chinese brands will account for 76% of new car sales by 2030, up from 67% this year. European brands will have 14% market share by the end of the decade, down from 17%. And Japanese and U.S. companies will control the remaining 10%. It also forecasts that fully-electric vehicles will make up 50% of the market by the end of the decade, while ICEs will decline to 19%. On top of that, the researchers say that the price war will change from direct price cuts to offering incentives like insurance subsidies, zero-interest financing and advanced technology at no extra cost.
CHINESE WILL GROW IN EU, EUROPEANS WILL SHRINK
Not only are Chinese car brands going to grow in China, they’re going to grow in Europe. And European brands are going to end up losing sales and market share. Alix Partners is forecasting that Chinese automakers will sell 800,000 vehicles a year in Europe by 2030. And though it says the European market will grow a bit by then, it also expects European automakers to lose 400,000 sales.
FILOSA MAKES MILD MANAGEMENT CHANGE AT STELLANTIS
Antonio Filosa officially took over the reins at Stellantis today and he named a new leadership team, though most executives stay in their current positions. The leadership team includes 13 members and in addition to that, four other executives will report directly to Filosa, including Ralph Gilles, the head of design and Olivier Francois, the head of marketing. All told, Filosa will have 16 direct reports, compared to the 33 that reported to former CEO, Carlos Tavares. The most significant change is the departure of Maxime Picat, who was the head of purchasing and the former head of Europe. Picat is rumored to replace Luca de Meo as CEO of Renault.
UAW MISSED OUT ON $80 MILLION
The UAW is in the headlines for the wrong reasons again. According to a report from Reuters, the union missed out on $80 million in potential stock gains. During the strikes against the Detroit 3 in 2023, the union used investment funds to pay striking workers. By the union’s own rules, those funds should have been reinvested once the strike ended, but they weren’t reinvested for more than a year and it’s not clear why. The issue first came to light late last year when union board members questioned why its portfolio gains were so small relative to the big gains in the stock market. And early this year, the union did an analysis that found it would have earned $80 million more had its funds been invested properly. According to UAW board members the discrepancy is now being investigated by the federal monitor overseeing the union. UAW President Shawn Fain and Secretary-Treasurer Margaret Mock both declined to comment.
NATURAL HYDROGEN COULD BE A GAME CHANGER
In what could turn out to be one of the most significant discoveries of our time, geologists have identified underground rock formations that could contain large amounts of hydrogen. For years’ scientists believed the only way to get large amounts of hydrogen was to manufacture it, like steam reforming or electrolysis. But that takes a lot of energy, which is why making hydrogen is far more expensive than gasoline or diesel. However, in 1987 a large underground reservoir of hydrogen was discovered in Mali, which is in Africa. Then, two years ago, huge reservoirs were found in France and Albania. And that kicked off a global search. They call it natural hydrogen, geologic hydrogen or white hydrogen, and now we know it’s created by the interaction of iron-rich rocks and pools of underground water. They call the process to extract it serpentinization. And start-up companies are jumping into what could turn into a modern-day gold rush. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there’s enough hydrogen available underground to meet global energy needs for the next 200 years. And obviously, there’s an automotive angle to all this. If hydrogen becomes cheap and abundant, then fuel cell cars or even IC engines running on hydrogen have a better chance of spreading in the market. And that would be a game changer. So, we’re keeping an eye on how this all develops.
WHAT? AN ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLE FROM GENERAL MOTORS?
Could we see a motorcycle with a GM badge on it? The automaker recently filed a patent for an electric two-wheeler that looks like a light off-roader with a rear in-wheel hub motor. No word if this thing will ever go on sale, but GM has dabbled in e-bikes before. So, maybe motorcycle is the next step up?
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.
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Sean, Maybe GM should buy Harley-Davidson before they go under! The price should be right! Also, hydrogen still has storage safety issues. Low cost hydrogen would also mean low cost electricity generated from hydrogen, which might be a better use for all that hydrogen.
Hey Kevin, not a bad idea. Or if GM just wants electric bikes it could try to buy out Livewire from Harley.
If large amounts of “natural” hydrogen become available, both coal and natural gas power plants could be converted to burn it. That would make more sense than using it for cars, given the complexities of storing it in cars. .
Kit, excellent point.
I hadn’t heard that Harley-Davidson was in trouble, but I’m not surprised. Older “baby boomers” my age are giving up riding or dying, putting a lot of mint condition used bikes on the market, competing with new ones. Also, like car companies, Harley uses parts from all over the world, which will be subject to tariffs, forcing price increases or profit losses.
Kevin, Sean, GM’s buying Livewire should make sense if GM wants to sell electric bikes. I suspect they could get it at a bargain price.
Wonder if GM could build electric bikes better than V8 engines, seems after almost 100 years GM still can’t make really good V8 engines without having all sorts of problems and massive recalls. I have one of the 5.3 V8’s and worry everyday if it’s going to cost me a few thousand dollars to fix.
Large reserves of natural hydrogen have been located in Michigan. I suspect more will be found in Minnesota and other iron mining areas of the US. Imagine a cheap, abundant and non-polluting source of energy that can be fairly easily adopted. The oil and natural gas industries have probably already geared up their lobbying machines!
Storage safety does not seem to be a present-day problem. PlugPower has been storing and transporting hydrogen in quantity for ten years or more, and has thousands of fork lifts operating on hydrogen every day. There are also the fuel cell models leased in California from Toyota, Honda and Hyundai. Have not heard of any issues with tanks on those vehicles.
Robotaxi to me is all about the lack of parking at one’s destination if you’re going to a spot where there is no secure parking at a reasonable cost you can use the app and a car will come to you and take you where you want to go your personal car might not be able to that conveniently like at many airports or downtown areas.
Then too is the need for a second car when it is just needed from time to time.
As well if there is a destination where alcohol is involved you might not want to be driving.
Another comes with age where infirmity you’d rather not drive like when I had to give up motorcycling.
Plus the other things I haven’t thought of.
LOL… DREAM ON.. re hydrogen. When pigs fly. Much less likely than the promise of Nuke energy in the 50s of ‘free electricity
As for Harley, it is not the first time, when I had a project with them in 1997, and visited both their Milwaukee HQ and the York, PA plant (nearby, besides Gettysburg battlefield, is a neat H-D museum), it had barely survived another crisis.
Harley had quality issues during the AMF era from late ’60s to early ’80s. They improved quality and updated products somewhat after they became independant, but the demographics are not good for them now. I was surprised that Buell didn’t work out for them. I figured multi-Harley buyers might go for something different like a Buell, but it didn’t work out that way.
Concerning China, is GM making any money there? Or would GM be better off putting that money into other projects?
GM in China. They are not doing well there..
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/04/business/gm-china-writedown
Uh-oh, is this union investment scandal going to bring about the indictment that nails Shawn Fain? I mean, you know it’s going to happen eventually. Union funds disappear for a year with no explanation, sounds like a little malfeasance was afoot.
On top of the quality issues, Harley had priced itself out of the market, and there were excellent choices from Honda, BMW and more exotic Euro makers. Harley in the mid 90s considered itself a maker of automotive jewelry, not motors, and gave the example of a Harley gas tank whose paint job cost it $400 at the time (1997) while a whole Accord cost $180 to paint.
People buy Harleys for the “image,” more than anything else. A big Harley without mufflers seems to be a “thing” where I an in Indiana, and to a somewhat lesser extent where I spend winters in Florida.
I’ve been riding for 50-some years and have had BMWs, and all of the Japanese “big four” brands. I now have a Kawasaki KLR650, a single cylinder “dual sport” which is simple, reliable, and works well for me. I ride only on road.
None of the underground hydrogen is 100% pure. Some is only 20% hydrogen. To use any of it you would have to remove the impurities. That cost money and then would you do with the impurities, release them into the atmosphere as pollution?