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Runtime: 10:15
0:00 Trump’s New “Escalade” Is Likely a Heavy-Duty GM Truck in Disguise
0:50 Can BMW Crack America’s Full-Size SUV Market with An X9?
1:31 Tariffs Bite: GM Brings Buick Envision Manufacturing to The U.S.
2:18 Congress Keeps Drunk-Driving Tech Mandate Alive
3:08 Chinese Automakers Go Shopping as Nissan Dumps Overseas Capacity
4:53 China’s Price War Turns Li Auto into A Short Seller’s Dream
5:44 Renault Skips Selling Cars in China—But Wants Its Tech and Suppliers
6:15 Why GM and Ford Want You Banking Where You Buy Your Car
6:52 Toyota Study Challenges the Myth That PHEVs Don’t Get Charged
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TRUMP’S NEW “ESCALADE” IS LIKELY A HEAVY-DUTY GM TRUCK IN DISGUISE
President Trump just got a new set of wheels. The U.S. Secret Service revealed that it added a couple of heavily armored Cadillac Escalades to its fleet. However, we think these are Escalades in appearance only. We spot what looks like 8-lug wheels, while a standard Escalade has 6-lugs. So, these presidential rides are probably based on a heavy-duty truck frame. GM signed a new contract with Homeland Security and the Secret Service last March to develop a next-gen limo for the President. And it looks like these Escalades are it. The vehicles would also expand GM’s partnership with the White House, having provided armored Cadillac limos and Chevy Suburbans in the past.
CAN BMW CRACK AMERICA’S FULL-SIZE SUV MARKET WITH AN X9?
Speaking of GM and full-size SUVs, when you add up all its models from Chevrolet, GMC and Cadillac, it controls nearly 60% of the full-size SUV market in the U.S. But the chairman of BMW’s National Dealer Forum wishes the automaker would come out with something to compete with American full-size SUVs. He wants BMW to offer a big, 3-row X9 and use the Alpina brand to come out with a top-of-the-line version. He says, “I think we’d do really well with it in the U.S.” So, what do you think? Could BMW get the volume it needs to justify developing a model like this?
TARIFFS BITE: GM BRINGS BUICK ENVISION MANUFACTURING TO THE U.S.
The President is also going to chalk up this next item as a victory for his tariffs. General Motors is shifting production of the Buick Envision from China to the U.S. The automaker says the next-gen version of the SUV will be built at its Fairfax Assembly plant in Kansas starting in 2028. Buick sold 42,000 Envisions last year, down 11%, partly due to trade tensions between the U.S. and China. GM also revealed that it plans to end production of the Chevy Bolt EV, which is also built in the Fairfax plant, right before the Envision comes in. GM says it might continue production if the Bolt sells well but as of now the plan is to keep it a limited run model.
CONGRESS KEEPS DRUNK-DRIVING TECH MANDATE ALIVE
On average, more than 12,000 people are killed every year in drunk driving accidents in the U.S. That’s why in 2021, Congress passed a bipartisan bill to require technology in new cars to prevent drunk driving. It didn’t mandate a specific technology to give automakers and regulators flexibility to find the best solution. But there is opposition to the bill over privacy concerns and an amendment was introduced into the House of Representatives to block its funding. Even so, yesterday Congress voted to reject that effort. However, the law still needs NHTSA to take regulatory action to put the requirement in place. And while several auto suppliers are working on solutions to prevent drunk driving, they’re also concerned about false positives and about liability.
CHINESE AUTOMAKERS GO SHOPPING AS NISSAN DUMPS OVERSEAS CAPACITY
Nissan is desperate to raise cash and get rid of excess capacity. So it’s selling its assembly plant in South Africa to Chinese automaker Chery. Nissan made 5 models in the plant, including the Navara pickup and X-Trail SUV. Nissan says it will still offer services to customers in South Africa and will sell new models there, but they’ll be made in India. We think that legacy automakers selling overseas plants to Chinese automakers could become a trend. There are a lot of underutilized plants and Chinese automakers are eager to expand globally.
CHINA’S PRICE WAR TURNS LI AUTO INTO A SHORT SELLER’S DREAM
Chinese automakers are pretty impressive, except for one thing. Almost all of them lose money. Li Auto was one of the 3 or 4 Chinese automakers that was profitable, but last year it fell victim to China’s relentless price war and started posting red ink. That’s when investors smelled blood and began shorting the stock. Shares fell 25% last year, meaning the shorts were really raking in the profits. In fact, Li Auto was the second most profitable short last year amongst all the shares traded in China. Bloomberg says short selling now accounts for 9% of all of the automaker’s trades, up from 1% a year ago. And this has got us thinking. If and when that massive consolidation in the Chinese auto industry starts to happen, there’s going to be a whole lot of shortin’ going on.
RENAULT SKIPS SELLING CARS IN CHINA—BUT WANTS ITS TECH AND SUPPLIERS
And that price war in China has scared off Renault from trying to sell cars in the country. It dropped out of the market 5 years ago. But the French automaker is interested in diving deep into China’s impressive automotive supply chain. It wants access to China’s leading-edge technology and best-in-class prices. And it’s co-developing cars with Geely in South Korea and Brazil. Francois Provost, the CEO of Renault, says working with Geely and Chinese suppliers will allow it to grow its global footprint.
WHY GM AND FORD WANT YOU BANKING WHERE YOU BUY YOUR CAR
General Motors and Ford are getting into banking. The two automakers just received approval from the U.S. government to create their own industrial banks. The banks are governed and regulated like any other bank but they are more limited. However, Industrial banks allow the companies to accept deposits insured by the FDIC into savings accounts, which the automakers couldn’t do before. Those deposits can then generate earnings and greater savings opportunities for consumers. And if those people do their banking with an automaker, they’re probably a lot more likely to buy their cars.
TOYOTA STUDY CHALLENGES THE MYTH THAT PHEVS DON’T GET CHARGED
Say, do PHEV owners plug in their cars or not? Research in Europe shows low rates of plugging in, especially with company cars. Two weeks ago GM CEO Mary Barra said, “What we also know today with plug-in hybrids, is that most people don’t plug them in.” And that seems to summarize the popular sentiment on plug-in hybrids: they don’t get plugged in. But a research paper published by Toyota’s North American R&D arm suggests PHEV owners actually do run their cars mostly on battery power. In a paper titled “An Analysis of the Real-World Performance of Toyota Vehicles,” the researchers found that over 79% of RAV4 Prime owners consistently plugged in their cars, while 9% never bothered to charge it at all. In Canada, the consistent charging rate is much higher at almost 96%. For the Lexus NX 450h+ they found only 4% of U.S. owners are “Non-Chargers,” with almost 86% identified as consistent chargers. In Canada it was 95%. The research was based on telematics data that measured changes in the battery’s state of charge between trips. Interestingly, this paper was published in July, 2025 but we never heard about it before and can’t find any reference to it on the internet or on Toyota’s North American or global websites. And we want to thank Dave Tuttle, a Research Fellow at the University of Texas, for sending it to us. Dave says the conclusions of the paper are reasonable, but points out they’re based on inference, not actual measurement.
Toyota_Real-World_Vehicle_Data_Analysis_for_STEPS_Asilomar_latest
And that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day and I hope that you have a great weekend.
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GMs action with the Envision is just a plan, not a slam-dunk action. You can bet that this plan will be be ‘delayed indefinitely’ to protect GM against the risk of the Democrats getting into power in the next election cycle. They won’t want to make additional vehicles in the US if it becomes possible to import cheaper ones from somewhere else. They also won’t want to stop the Bolt if there is a chance of EV subsidies coming back.
No doubt the armor added to a presidential vehicle requires a heavier suspension than the stock Escalade. My guess is it is an Escalade but with the one ton pick up suspension and underpinnings.
The issue I have with drunk driving mandates is typical of law makers. The gov is supposed to be passing laws to protect people and then punishment is assigned accordingly. However when that doesn’t work it seems they are more than happy to infringe on our rights to mandate manufacturers to make their products force compliance. This falls in line with “ people speed and we have fines and point systems to address it. But let’s just surpass all that and make the manufacturers design their cars so they cannot exceed the speed limit or ever go over 80mph. I personally do not want to live in a nanny state where the gov protects us from ourselves. We have laws, enforce them but don’t restrict us. The drunk driving deaths account for .000037% of the population. Why should everyone have to pay for another gadget on our vehicles that can malfunction? With that thinking because 945 people die from Jay walking the gov should require all cities to fence in the sidewalks so you can’t jaywalk. Seems that idiotic to me.
I wish BMW luck. They might have a chance to displace some escalade/navigator volume, but in terms of Suburban/Expedition volume, they are not a player. BMW will struggle to understand the buyers in that market. BMW will want to have their traditional stiff suspension, cramped interior, concrete seats, and inoperable turn signals. The buyers in that market want the complete opposite. Wide open interiors, sofa level comfort seats, soft riding suspension, working turn signals, all while towing a large trailer with their travel home or horses. Those vehicles are bought for long family road trips where you soak up hundreds of miles in a day. Comfort and soft ride are paramount due to the long trips they want to take. Those buyers are basically looking for a modern interpretation of a Cadillac Brougham.
There is a portion of Escalade/Navigator buyers that are just buying them to go to the mall. BMW will pick up those more image conscious buyers.
Kevin a —
But isn’t that the world we live in now?! Major international companies are afraid to make like term plans like this, out of fear that a change in political direction, will force them to eat the cost of years of development, once the day comes for implementation. That what Ford and GM had to do when government support dried up on EVs. Unless they can make changes within the four year term of the elected individual in power, I can’t imagine such longer term commitments are no longer than a suggestion, promise or something that they “plan” to do. If JD. Vance becomes the next president and he follows Trumps agenda, I’m sure GM will follow through, bit if a democrat wins that seat of office, they may take a wait-and-see approach.
Kevin, I wonder if GM will duplicated the tooling to make Envisions in the US, or if it will import stampings and moldings from China and pay the tariffs on that.
Have you ever heard about signing a release together your Transmission oil changed?
That’s what they wanted for my Jeep Wrangler, 186,453 miles on it.
The timing to me suggests that the fairfax plant will build the next gen or refreshed version of the envision. Thus all new tooling. Quite possibly exploring the new robots we hear so much about lately that will be mainstream by then. Given that GM is very publicly announcing that they are getting away from china sourced products including all sub-components and materials regardless of this plant move….They are not going to be impacted by any tariffs due to the move to Fairfax from that perspective. I don’t think this move would have happened without the current administration, but it will happen regardless of administration in 2028.
John- even your story says it’s the next gen version of the envision so I doubt they’ll import stamping from China. My guess is it’s a full redesign and in typical GM fashion the next gen will grow a few inches here and there making it different enough that few items will be shared from the current model. That’s only 2 years away so I doubt GM will wait and see about much of anything other than will bolt sales justify making both vehicles in Kansas.
IMHO, BMW would do better adding size to the rear seat section of their X7 to actual fit adults, then building a bigger X9! If they did, personally, I think they would be doing more harm to the longest running vehicle in the lineup: the chauffeur driven 7-Series. A vehicle of that size, with two captains chairs in the second row, with all kinds of room to stretch out after a long day of work? I can’t see why a captain of industry settle for anything less!
Lambo —
I get your point, but I think lawmakers lose any sleep over a drunk driver that losses their life over driving drunk, useless there is a family connection. They are more concerned about the innocent drivers, bystanders and those who have life changing injuries (some of them children) and their families (as well as property damaged) that those drunk drivers impact! It’s almost as if they talk out of both sides of their mouth, for, as you say, they create these laws that’s supposed to prevent drunk driving, but then it’s like an open secret that young people in their late teens and early twenties are going to experiment and play around with drugs and alcohol! From prom night to college spring break, it’s almost excepted/expected that young people are going to just have a little fun and blow of some steam and “sneak a few beers”, get drunk and then someone is going to get behind the wheel! And one of the few parties that have to be responsible, are automakers that have to add this tech to new vehicles. What’s to keep someone who insists on this behavior, from driving a late model vehicle that doesn’t have the technology?!
Moving Envision to Fairfax might be a win-win for GM. It appears they are sucking up to Trump, a positive for some buyers, and with Malibu and XT4 gone, the plant is empty, except for Bolt. It’s hard to know what they would have done without the current administration, but Fairfax is a big facility with a lot of capacity, and it is now essentially empty.
I know I have flogged a dead horse before but making all vehicles have drunk driving sensors because of a very low % of deaths is to me, as always, a complete waste of money and time. I guarantee alcoholics and now drug addicts will quickly work a way around the system. The innocent driver will have the problems when the sensors don’t work.
It’s like ABS. We are in winter here with lots of snow and very slippery roads. If we don’t turn off the ABS the car will decide to do a ‘cut the power’ move in the middle of a left turn with traffic coming. Frequent enough that even my very conservative wife hits the button in her Bolt. That’s safer?
I’d think BMW could compete with Escalade, if they do it right. Stretching the X7 would add cargo space, but to really compete with Escalade, it might need to be wider. In CR’s charts, the Escalade and X7 have essentially the same rear and 3rd row leg room, but the Slade has a lot more cargo room, and is 6 inches wider. I thought the Rolls-Royce SUV might be a starting point, but it is the same width as the X7.
I don’t want drunk driver sensors. There’d be too many false positives, and, of course, there would be workarounds that habitual drunk drivers would come up with.
Punish the drunk drivers with whatever means possible, no reason to pass on any related costs to everyone else. Make it a criminal offence? There is a dude near me that has 26 dui’s. How is that even possible?
Merv- perfect example of gov not being real serious about drunk drivers. If they really wanted to prevent it there would be no way a person could rack up 26 DUIs. So I’m supposed to pay for tech on my future vehicles meanwhile people out here with 5-10-25 DUIs?
wmb- those percentages I gave were all deaths related to alcohol not just the driver. So overall relatively low. Yea I’m sure not many people are overly upset when a drunk driver kill’s themselves. It’s the collateral damage. But it’s not my responsibility to have crap added to my car for those idiots that can’t stop drinking and driving.
Apparently the Escalade-looking president’s vehicle is just styled to look like an Escalade, but it substantially bigger in every dimension to accommodate the armor, etc.
Is there any reason Bolt production would need to end to accommodate building Envision at Fairfax? That plant has had a capacity of about 250K/year production in the past. Unless they expect to sell a lot more Bolts and Envisions than in the past, there should be plenty of room for both of them.
I remember when the government tried requiring systems to prevent cars from starting unless the driver’s seatbelt was fastened. I believe my Dad’s 1974 Mercury Comet had that system.
Mark, my 1974 Plymouth Duster had the seat belt interlock. Since I always use seatbelts, and did even then, I didn’t particularly mind the interlock, except that I didn’t trust it to be reliable. For that reason, I wired around it.
Does GM make a profit on Bolt sales? I’ve read that they do not, but I’m not sure if it’s true.
Merv/Lambo2015 —
I wonder how many would find themselves on they wrong side of such nationwide Crack down on DUIs?!
Consensus was that early Bolts lost money. They’d have lower cost this time, using the LFP batteries, but I’d think it would be hard to make money on an inexpensive car like that with only an 18 month run.
If the posts here are true that people have double digit DUIs and keep driving, that should be easy to fix. That person should be in jail. Did that person have a license, or keep driving without one? Either way, something there is wrong. As far as “catching” more people, the only way to do that is with checkpoints. Generally, no one likes those, even those who are not drinking.