AD #4225 – Most Dealers Not Recouping EV Investments; Waymo More Valuable Than Most Automakers; Toyota & Honda Overtake the Detroit 3 in Canada

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

MOST DEALERS NOT RECOUPING EV INVESTMENTS
GM and Ford are writing off tens of billions of dollars on their EV investments. Tier 1 suppliers are doing the same. And Automotive News reports that more than half of the U.S. car dealers it surveyed said they have not recovered the investment they made in EVs. Fewer than 4% said they fully recouped it. Dealers had to invest in EV chargers, tools and training, but sales of EVs fell far short of expectations. However, as we’ve pointed out before, there are at least 300,000 EVs coming off lease this year, and with very attractive prices they could pull in a lot more first-time EV buyers, which could help dealers recoup their investments.

WAYMO NOW MORE VALUABLE THAN MOST AUTOMAKERS
Waymo has tripled its value in less than two years. In 2024, the autonomous vehicle company was valued at $45 billion. But in its latest funding round, Waymo raised another $16 billion, which now puts its valuation at $126 billion. That makes it more valuable than every automaker with the exception of Tesla and Toyota. Part of the surge is due to Waymo really expanding its business. Last year, it provided 15 million rides, or about 400,000 rides a week in the six U.S. cities that it operates in. Plus it’s expanding into 20 more cities this year.

TOYOTA & HONDA OVERTAKE DETROIT 3 IN CANADA
The Detroit automakers, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, used to account for the majority of vehicles assembled in Canada but not anymore. According to a new report from the Trillium Network for Advanced Manufacturing, Toyota and Honda produced 77% of the vehicles in Canada in 2025, up from 44% in 2015. The two Japanese automakers also now account for 60% of assembly plant employment, up from 40% a decade ago. But that’s just for finished vehicle production. When you factor in engine plants and R&D centers, the Detroit three are still the largest employers among automakers in Canada. However, their pullback in production has led to a big decline in vehicle manufacturing in Canada. Last year, 1.2 million units were built, down from 2.3 million in 2016.

DENSO CUTS FORECAST BUT STILL EXPECTS RECORD YEAR
Denso, the second largest auto supplier in the world, cut its full-year operating profit forecast by nearly a fifth to $3.44 billion. The company blames U.S. tariffs and rising material and fixed costs for the lower forecast. But despite the cut, Denso’s CFO expects its full-year operating profit and revenue to reach record highs. Thanks to the yen’s favorable exchange rate, Denso was able to offset some of the rising costs. And it also relies heavily on Toyota, as it generates 56% of its revenue from the Toyota Group.

PORSCHE COULD SCRAP NEXT-GEN ALL-ELECTRIC 718 MODELS
Porsche could kill off plans to make all-electric versions of the 718 Boxster and Cayman. Bloomberg reports the automaker is considering making the move as a way to save cash due to overall sales slumping and a slower than expected transition to EVs. Porsche first announced in 2022 that the next-gen 718s would go all-electric and come out in 2025. But the program was pushed back. Then last year a report dropped that the models would also feature gas engines across their entire lineups and now it looks like new CEO Michael Leiters is thinking about getting rid of the 718 EVs altogether. Porsche seems to be in a unique situation compared to most other automakers, but not in a good way. Sports car buyers haven’t warmed up to EVs as much as the general consumer, its sales have fallen significantly in China and it doesn’t make a single vehicle in the U.S., so tariffs are eating into its profits.

CHINESE RESEARCHERS DEVELOP BREATHABLE SILICON ANODE
A Chinese research team has come up with an interesting development in solid-state batteries. They made a silicon anode that has a breathable structure. Silicon can hold up to 10-times more lithium ions than graphite anodes, but silicon expands up to three times its size during charging cycles, which can destroy a battery. So the gaps in this breathable structure allow for that expansion and it sounds like tests have been encouraging. However, we say take these solid-state breakthroughs with a grain of salt. Trying to scale up production has been an issue, so we probably won’t see the batteries in any significant volume until the end of the decade. But they still offer enhanced safety, higher energy density and more charging cycles than other types of batteries, so it’s still important to keep an eye on their development.

JAG SKIPS SKATEBOARD CHASSIS FOR LOWER SEATING POSITION
Skateboard designs with a big battery pack forming the floor, seem to be the preferred way of designing EVs these days. But that also introduces some design compromises. With the battery in the floor of a car, the seats have to sit higher. And that forces designers to raise the roofline to maintain headroom. So when Jaguar set out to radically change the look of its EVs, it decided not to go with a skateboard design. Instead, it divided the battery pack into 5 stacks. One stack, with about 19 kilowatt-hours of capacity, is located at the front of the cabin. While the other four, with a combined 100 kilowatt-hours, sit at the rear of the cabin. The gap between the front and rear packs forms a footwell for rear seat passengers, and the front seats are partially mounted in it as well. The result is a lower seating position which translates into a roofline that will be lower than a Tesla Model 3.

MICROVISION GETS LIDAR TECH FOR PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR
Five years ago the stock prices of EV makers were going through the roof. And the same was largely true of lidar companies. One of those companies, Luminar, saw its stock shoot over $500 a share, giving it an $11 billion market cap, and turning its then 25-year-old founder into a multi-billionaire. But then Luminar went bankrupt and another lidar company, Microvision, just bought all its assets and got most of its customers for only $33 million. In fact, Microvision bought another lidar maker, Scantinel Photonics, after it went bankrupt, too. And Microvision’s CEO, Glen DeVos, says they’ll buy other lidar companies too, if the right situation arises. Maybe you saw the interview we did with DeVos at CES last month. Microvision has developed a $200 lidar and is working on getting the price down to $100. And by buying up bankrupt lidar companies, it’s getting a ton of technology for pennies on the dollar.

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.