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Runtime: 11:43
0:00 Oil & Aluminum Prices Surging Again
0:52 China Car Sales Drop 26%
1:18 Tesla Rebounds in China, Robots Coming Soon
1:59 Carvana Buys Stellantis Stores, Dealers Don’t Like It
2:49 Honda Cancels EVs, Takes $16 Billion Hit
4:22 Nissan, Uber, Wayve Pilot Robotaxis in Tokyo
4:57 Changan’s 80 MPG Non-Plug-In Hybrid
5:59 Joby Aviation Moves Closer to eVTOL Services
6:48 Chinese Electric Heavy Trucks Invade Europe
7:53 New Kia Telluride Hybrid Debuts at $46K
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
OIL & ALUMINUM PRICES SURGING AGAIN
The price of oil rose 7% this morning to $98 a barrel and aluminum hit a 4-year high as several tankers were attacked and left burning in the Persian Gulf yesterday. Prices have been on a roller coaster since the war in Iran began, sending automakers and suppliers rushing to simulate scenarios as to how this could play out for them. On top of that, the Middle East accounted for nearly 3 million new car sales a year, many of them highly profitable full-size SUVs, but sales have dropped off dramatically. So we think the auto industry better be ready for the worst case, just in case this war goes on longer than the Trump Administration is saying it will.
CHINA CAR SALES DROP 26%
Sales of passenger cars in China have slowed significantly this year, falling 26% for the first two months. And surprisingly, sales of New Energy Vehicles, which includes BEVs and plug-ins, were down 7%. That was somewhat mitigated by a 48% surge in total vehicle exports, but China’s domestic market could be a headache for automakers, suppliers and dealers this year.
TESLA REBOUNDS IN CHINA; ROBOTS COMING
However, Tesla showed a dramatic recovery in February in China, as it delivered well over 58,000 new cars, up 91% from a year ago. Even so, Morgan Stanley and Morningstar are forecasting that Tesla’s global sales will drop for the third year in a row. And they’re warning that Tesla will post negative cash flow in 2026 for the first time in 7 years. But Tesla is also showing off the third generation of its humanoid robot at an Expo in Shanghai this week. Elon Musk says it will go into mass production by the 4th quarter and that Tesla will make a million a year.
CARVANA BUYS STELLANTIS STORES, DEALERS DON’T LIKE IT
Used car retailer, Carvana, has quietly acquired half a dozen Stellantis dealerships over the past year. It’s now offering new cars for sale on its website that are priced thousands of dollars below the MSRP and it’s also offering home delivery, just like it does with used vehicles. But Stellantis’ existing dealers aren’t happy Carvana is now part of their network. At a recent meeting with company executives, dealers brought up concerns over Carvana taking sales away from them since it can undercut their prices and offer free shipping to customers, who might be hundreds of miles from the nearest dealership. However, analysts say dealers may need to adopt Carvana’s online sales process since it’s popular with many car buyers.
HONDA TAKES $16B EV WRITE-OFF
Another automaker is taking a huge financial hit to pivot away from EVs. Ford recently announced a nearly $20 billion write-off, while Stellantis wrote off $26 billion. And now Honda says it will book up to nearly $16 billion in losses in its shift away from EVs. The automaker is canceling three EVs it was developing for North America, the 0 Series SUV, 0 Series Saloon and the Acura RSX. Honda says if it started producing and selling the vehicles, it would lead to even more losses in the long-term. On top of that its profitability has declined because of U.S. tariffs and not remaining competitive in Asia because it had to allocate more resources for EV development. So the company needs to save cash in order to offset losses in its automotive business. Several executives, including Honda’s CEO and executive vice president, are taking voluntary pay cuts for the next three months, as a result of its decision.
NISSAN, UBER, WAYVE PILOT ROBOTAXIS IN TOKYO
As we reported earlier this week, Nissan is partnering with Uber to provide it with autonomous vehicles powered by Wayve technology for a robotaxi service. At the time we didn’t have details but now we do. The companies will begin a pilot test in Tokyo by the end of the year, using self-driving Leafs, which will be available on the Uber app. It’s the first time Uber will offer autonomous rides in Japan. And the companies plan to roll out the service to more than 10 cities globally, including London. But no timetable was given for that expansion.
CHANGAN’S 80 MPG NON PLUG-IN HYBRID
With all the investments in EVs over the last several years we had one industry insider tell us they were worried that automakers would never do a clean-sheet engine design again. But now that EV adoption hasn’t progressed at the rate that many thought, some suppliers of ICEs and their components are running at full capacity. Chinese automaker Changan announced that it’s about to launch an all-new hybrid setup that was specifically developed for low-speed efficiency, like in stop and go traffic. By giving more priority to run on the electric motor, the company is aiming for fuel consumption of just under 3L/100km, which is nearly 80 MPG. While we often talk about ‘China Speed,’ Changan spent 6 years and nearly $300 million developing the new hybrid. But it has a lot of incentive to get the setup ‘just right’ with about half the new cars sold in China still featuring an ICE.
JOBY EVTOL HITS FAA CERTIFICATION MILESTONE
Joby Aviation hit a milestone. It says it has started flight testing the first versions of its aircraft that will be used for FAA certification. These initial flights pave the way for FAA pilots to test the electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft or eVTOLs later this year. The Trump Administration recently backed an eVTOL Integration Pilot Program that is helping clear the way for aircraft like this as well. Through the program, operators are now allowed to take test flights in several states, including Arizona, Florida, Idaho, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas and Utah. If Joby does receive its certification, it plans to launch air taxi services around the world.
CHINESE ELECTRIC TRUCKS INVADE EUROPEAN MARKET
Over the past couple of years, Chinese automakers have quickly expanded and grown passenger car sales in Europe. And now they’re gearing up to enter the electric heavy-duty truck market. Reuters reports there are more than half a dozen Chinese automakers planning to launch electric big truck sales in Europe this year, including BYD and Geely. Like the passenger EVs, the Chinese companies are looking to undercut the price of electric big rigs by 30%, which, in Europe, sell for an average of €320,000 or $380,000. But that’s still well above a diesel truck, which sells for €100,000 on average. Because of that price disparity, electric trucks only accounted for 4.2% of heavy-duty truck sales last year in Europe. Even still, Europe’s truckmakers are taking the threat of Chinese competition seriously. Auto groups are lobbying the EU to enact policies to boost demand for electric trucks before the Chinese gain a foothold.
KIA TELLURIDE HYBRID DEBUTS AT $46K
Kia is on a roll, and we think its boldly redesigned Telluride SUV will keep the momentum rolling. For the first two months of the year, Kia outsold Hyundai in the U.S. market, which is a milestone for the company. The Telluride is the flagship of the brand, and is made tariff-free in the U.S., unlike its counterpart the Hyundai Palisade which is made in South Korea. Kia is adding a hybrid and a rugged trim line called X-Pro that is surprisingly off-road capable. The hybrid features a 2.5 liter turbo with 2 electric motors that provide a combined 329 horsepower and 339 pound feet of torque, all going through a 6-speed automatic. The front drive version is rated at 35 MPG, with 637 miles of driving range. Prices range from about $46,500 to $57,600. The non-hybrid version gets 274 horsepower and 311 pound feet and gets a combined 24 mpg. The base price is about $39,000, while a fully loaded one goes for $57,600. There’s a lot to report on new Telluride and we’ll have more info coming out on the Autoline website and YouTube channel.
AUTOLINE AFTER HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
Be sure to join us for Autoline After Hours this afternoon when we’ll be analysing the latest developments in the industry this week, like the impact of the war in Iran, the latest models coming into the market, the CEO changes at Slate and Chrysler and a whole lot more. Kalea Hall from Reuters and Luke Ramseth from the Detroit News will be on the show, so join John and Gary when it all goes live at 3 pm eastern time on the Autoline website or YouTube channel.
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It looks like Carvana is not quite working like a regular Chrysler Group dealer. From what I can find, I can’t order a Pacifica through them, but I can through a regular dealer.
It looks like Hyundai/Kia are sticking with their complexity-for-complexity’s-sake hybrid system with a shifting transmission in the Telluride. The closest available comparison with data of the hybrid powertrain in the Telluride and a competing Toyota is Carnival hybrid vs Sienna. The Carnival is both thirstier and slower. All of the extra complexity of the Kia is really great.
Honda should keep selling versions of GM EVs it was already selling. That way they don’t have to lose money on designing and building their own. What is interesting is that Honda was selling more GM EVs with the Honda brand name on them than GM was selling in their own dealerships. But unfortunately, Honda and GM seemed to have had a falling out for some reason and now GM is partnering with Hyundai.
With Honda being most American car company, does that mean no one can make money making and selling American made cars?
While the image in today’s report shows a Tesla humanoid robot at what looks like someone home, I just cant see enough homes having the need or the resources to have one. There is the cost of the original purchase and maintenance (of which it would be difficult to tabulate since in is so knew) for starters! Would there be a subscription service that is required like with Microsoft Word? Would it record what it sees and hears in your home, like alexa and other personal assistants? Could it be used for personal security? Who’s at fault if it breaks something? It seems that a better case can be made to have humanoid robots in a manufacturing setting, then in someone’s home.
Yet, regarding the humanoid robots in manufacturing. There was a lot of talk that this could be a win for manufacturing, since the cost for them could be made up in a matter of months. There was a comment yesterday about the small work vans like the transit connect and the stellantis vehicle, that, while sold in the US, were not being made in North America, because they were too expensive to do so. One could easily see how an assembly plant of humanoid robots could make that a thing of the past, right? Yet, if a country like China, which has subsidized their manufacturing for years, builds the same product using humanoid robots and then sells that same product at 20% to 30% less, what can any local manufacturer do to offset that cost? It’s not like building that product in Brazil, Mexico, or Turkey will be able to suffice, because, with the humanoids robots doing the assembling, their costs will be the same no matter what country they built it in, right?!
I wonder if the Joby eVTOLs could/would eventually be flown without a pilot onboard? To my eye and in my mind, they resemble a lot of the drones that the air force uses to survey different areas, yet the pilot is located hundreds of miles away from the actual vehicle! While I’m sure the drones used by the military are much bigger than the eVTOLs that Joby will use, with the increased interest in robotaxis, I can’t see how something like that will be very far behind for eVTOLs should they eventually get off the ground (pardon the pun)!
I would like to have a vtol experience. Looks like an interesting program.
Curious, nothing about closing Hormuz triggering world wide gas hikes …. even in countries ‘without a dog in that fight.’
As I pass $3.50+/gal gas in my solar roof charged EV, I count my blessings and pity the rest.
I would expect getting slammed at the pump would light a bonfire for EVs sales. Those “write offs” may get rewritten.
Bob Wilson
Even with gas going up $.60/gallon over the last few days where I am, I spend as much eating out twice as I spend in a month for gas, even with the price increase. I just find the death and destruction sickening, just for a certain Hegseth and Trump to prove that they are “tough guys,” and they are messing up the global economy to go along with the death and destruction, and environmental damage. They thrive on cruelty, both in the middle east, and stealing oil from Venezuela, so Cuba goes without fuel for electricity and transportation.
As things are now, fewer people will be buying any vehicles, EV or otherwise.
Bob don’t pity us too much. No need. The gas difference from $2.40 to $3.50 is just.90 cents. So filling up 16 gallons a week is a whopping $14. About the same as a fast food meal today. I’ll survive. In fact it’s dropped to $3.09 here already this week. Not going to panic in a knee jerk reaction and place the truck up for sale. Still cheaper than what I was paying in 2022.