AD #3462 – Battery Prices Up for 1st Time in 10 Years, 1/3 of Ford Dealers Not Investing in EVs; Mercedes-AMG S-Class
December 6th, 2022 at 12:04pm
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Runtime: 10:41
0:00 Battery Prices Up for 1st Time in Over 10 Years
1:24 1/3 of Ford Dealers Not Investing in EVs
2:24 Tesla Denies Shanghai Slowdown
3:49 Hydrogen Extraction Breakthrough Could Benefit Fuel Cells
5:19 Mercedes Reveals Most Powerful S-Class Ever
6:26 OEMs Can’t Go Carbon Neutral w/ HEVs & PHEVs
7:54 Navistar and TuSimple Part Ways
8:26 DHL Taps BrightDrop for EV Delivery
9:13 Integra Type S Gets Same Setup as Civic Type R
9:42 Toyota Developing EV Manual Transmission
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BATTERY PRICES UP FOR 1ST TIME IN OVER 10 YEARS
For the first time in more than a decade, the price of lithium-ion battery packs increased. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which has been tracking the market since 2010, rising raw material and component prices as well as rising inflation led to the increase. The average price globally in 2022 is $151 per kWh, up 7% from last year. BloombergNEF says the increase could have been larger if it weren’t for the adoption of LFP or lithium-iron phosphate batteries, which are 20% cheaper on average. Its study includes batteries for passenger and commercial vehicles, buses and stationary storage products. If you only look at BEV packs, prices were $138 per kWh in 2022. And prices also vary per region. In China, battery pack prices were cheapest at $127/kWh. BloombergNEF says prices will remain about the same in 2023 before dropping again in 2024. And by 2026, it says battery packs will fall below $100/kWh on average.
1/3 OF FORD DEALERS NOT MAKING EV INVESTMENT
As we reported yesterday, Ford is getting resistance from some of its dealers on how it plans to sell EVs. And now we have a better idea of how many aren’t making the investment, which will cost $500,000 or $1-$1.2 million, depending on what investment tier they choose. At the Automotive News World Congress CEO Jim Farley said nearly 2/3rds of its U.S. dealers have elected to become EV certified and the majority of them chose to invest in the higher tier. But that means the other third or over 1,000 dealers are not making the initial EV investment. Based on yesterday’s report, some will probably never make that switch, however, others might just be taking a wait-and-see approach. Ford will open another investment program in 2025 that would allow dealers that buy in to sell EVs by 2027.
TESLA DENIES SHANGHAI SLOWDOWN
Tesla is denying reports that it plans to cut production in China. Yesterday, Reuters reported that the EV maker will cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory by 20% this month due to increasing inventory. But Tesla China issued a statement saying the reports were “untrue” and did not elaborate. The company set a record last month, delivering more than 100,000 vehicles, which was 40% higher than the previous month.
HYDROGEN EXTRACTION BREAKTHROUGH COULD BENEFIT FUEL CELLS
One of the big drawbacks of fuel cells is the lack of a hydrogen network to re-fuel vehicles. That’s because pure hydrogen is expensive to compress for transport and is difficult to store for long periods. So in recent years, scientists have turned to ammonia to extract hydrogen since it contains three hydrogen molecules and it’s also easier to transport and store than hydrogen. But there are drawbacks to this. In order to get the hydrogen out of ammonia, it requires extremely high temperatures, around 400 degrees Celsius or 732 degrees Fahrenheit and expensive catalysts are needed for the process. But researchers at Princeton and Rice universities may have discovered a breakthrough and developed a technique to split hydrogen from liquid ammonia that is cheaper and less energy intensive. It uses an LED to excite electrons in iron and copper nanoparticles to split the ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen, which can be done at room temperature with no additional heating. The researchers say the process is scalable and it can be produced locally instead of at large centralized plants. The next step is to find a cleaner way to create ammonia. It’s currently done so with high temperatures and pressures using fossil fuels. And if that can be solved, this new technique has the potential to be the break that fuel cells need.
MERCEDES REVEALS MOST POWERFUL S-CLASS EVER
Luxury performance is having its day in the sun as Mercedes revealed the new AMG version of the S-Class. Let’s slide past the obvious stuff, like unique styling accents inside and out as well as upgraded brakes and suspension, and move into the real exciting stuff. Power comes from a 4.0L twin-turbo V8 paired to a rear-mounted electric motor that combines for 802 horsepower and over 1,000 lb-ft of torque. That makes it the most powerful S-Class ever and it will do 0-100 km/h in 3.3 seconds. Not bad for a sedan that weighs over 5,700 pounds or nearly 2,600 kilograms. The Mercedes-AMG S-Class is also a plug-in hybrid and features a 13.1 kWh battery pack that provides up to 33 kilometers or 20 miles of range, although Mercedes says it is designed for fast power delivery and draw, not the longest possible range.
OEMs CAN’T GO CARBON NEUTRAL WITH HEVs & PHEVs
Ford says it will be carbon neutral by 2050. GM says by 2040 and Stellantis says by 2038. Carbon neutrality means they will not be adding any new net carbon to the atmosphere. Almost all the other automakers in the world are making the same promise. This is why the auto industry is so committed to electric cars. Automakers can’t get to carbon neutrality with hybrids or even plug-in hybrids. As efficient as they are, they still emit too much CO2. Only battery electrics are going to get them there. This was one of the hot topics at the SAE’s North American International Propulsion Conference last month. The talk was that hybrids and plug-in hybrids are not going to go away in the short term. But they have a limited shelf life that is going to expire sometime in the next decade.
NAVISTAR AND TUSIMPLE PART WAYS
Navistar and self-driving company TuSimple are ending a partnership to develop autonomous semi-trucks. Back in 2020, Navistar bought a minority stake in the startup and the two planned to introduce Level 4 self-driving trucks in 2024. But now the companies have abruptly ended the partnership without specifying why. They aren’t the only companies backing away from developing AVs. As you know, Ford and Volkswagen recently ended their partnership with Argo AI.
DHL TAPS GM’S BRIGHTDROP FOR EV DELIVERY
GM’s all-electric commercial vehicle company, BrightDrop, is expanding into new markets. Delivery company DHL will add BrightDrop vans to its fleet in Canada starting next year. DHL is also testing BrightDrop’s Trace eCarts in a pilot in Toronto. They are ergonomically designed containers which feature a built-in electric hub motor to make moving them around easier. GM also opened its first EV manufacturing plant in Canada. It re-tooled its CAMI Assembly Plant in Ontario to build BrightDrop vans and the first one rolled off the line yesterday. The plant will build 50,000 BrightDrop vans annually by 2025.
INGETRA TYPE S GETS SAME SETUP AS CIVIC TYPE R
Sounds like the performance version of the Acura Integra, the Type S, will have the same setup to the Honda Civic Type R. Undergoing testing right now, the Integra Type S will feature a 2.0L turbocharged engine that makes over 300 horsepower and is mated to a 6-speed manual transmission and a limited-slip differential. Headed to the Acura lineup for the 2024 model year, we should learn more closer to the vehicle’s launch date.
LEXUS DEVELOPING EV MANUAL TRANSMISSION
And speaking of manual transmissions, they might not die with electric vehicles. The chief engineer of Lexus Electrified says that it’s developing a manual for EVs that’s “not just a design concept.” The system is said to feature a shift lever, tach and third pedal, but will use software to simulate the feeling of a manual. But that also means each driver could tune the system to their preference. Lexus says the test vehicles have been fun to drive, but let us know what you think in the comments.
And that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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Comments (22)
December 6th, 2022 at 12:20 pm
Higher and even flat rate prices for batteries is troubling. I believe we have reached the point where the higher car prices have affected the number of vehicles that will be sold new. There are a high number of high-end purchases in the luxury field but the continuation of higher prices and stratospheric rises in prices is the major determination of the SAAR not meeting expectations. The regular guy is being priced out.
December 6th, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Sure would like to see a US map of the Ford dealers not willing to invest in EV’s. I bet you’ll find they will be in rural areas in the North and central part of the US where EVs may not work as well and dont have the same interest. Not surprising but would show the whole picture.
December 6th, 2022 at 12:56 pm
If battery packs are currently $138 per Kwh and vehicles like the MB on todays show has a 13.1 Kwh pack by 2024 if batteries are below $100 Kwh means the price of that MB could drop a whopping $500. I doubt that can offset inflation.
Tesla can deny the slowdown but lets not be shocked if they have some reason to stop production this next quarter. Like a chip shortage or lockdown. Any truth to the inventory piling up? Makes you wonder where Reuters is getting its info.
December 6th, 2022 at 1:03 pm
I’m not surprised about battery prices going up, with demand increasing several fold over a few years. Mining and processing materials, and battery manufacturing aren’t going to adjust overnight, with EV production increasing at about 50% a year, and EVs using a battery thousands of times the capacity of a smart phone or laptop battery.
December 6th, 2022 at 1:08 pm
When the new Integra was first introduced, I thought it should have more engine than the 1.5 turbo borrowed from the base Accord and CR-V. Now it will. I’d think it would make sense to offer the “milder” 2.0 turbo, maybe as the base engine. That one uses regular gas in the Accord.
December 6th, 2022 at 1:12 pm
At some point, all Ford dealers will need to either deal with EVs, or shut down. I suppose a number of the smallest dealers in small towns will just shut down.
December 6th, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Battery demand can ramp up faster than battery mineral mining and refining. Shortages lead to bidding up the cost until mining and refining catch up.
December 6th, 2022 at 2:11 pm
So Lexus is basically making a video game with that manual. it won’t really do anything , but simulate a manual trans ? Why bother when that will more than likely add thousands to the already bloated price of a EV. Save the money and buy a racing simulator console instead.
December 6th, 2022 at 2:17 pm
@2 Good point, I had not thought about that, but it makes total sense.
December 6th, 2022 at 2:19 pm
Sean
Don’t take the criticism to heart. Your program is far more interesting than the 2 Autonews daily videos combined.
Keep up the good work. I am a viewer for life.
December 6th, 2022 at 2:33 pm
Manual on Electric cars seem like a great idea, love it! High torque at lower speeds, but higher speeds the pace of acceleration dies down. Gears seems like a great way to do it! Understand the Chevy Volt electric drive had two speed planetary gears, not heard of any other EV with multiple gears outside of conversions. This is freaggin’ cool!
December 6th, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Everybody makes mistakes. As long as you own up to them in a timely manner then it is no harm/ no foul. I have been watching Autoline Daily for years and find that it is the best source of news about the auto industry. Keep up the good work!!!
December 6th, 2022 at 2:52 pm
Battery prices going up obviously a supply demand issue but that is average battery prices How about the price of “best practices” ??
December 6th, 2022 at 3:56 pm
11 Porsche Taycan has a two speed gearbox for the rear motor/wheels, I think mainly to get higher top speed.
December 6th, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Battery chemistry research continues but it is no magic bullet. There is a huge gap between lab button cells and manufacturing. High prices helps motivate research that may lead to better batteries in decades.
December 6th, 2022 at 5:01 pm
15 I like LiFePO4 batteries. They have close to the energy density of other types, cost less, and have longer lifetime.
December 6th, 2022 at 6:38 pm
It’s incredible that the new Mercedes-AMG S-Class sound like a beast! Yet, with all that power, it’s still behind the Model S Plaid and the Air Sapphire, in the race from 0-to-60. Yes, it spots the those vehicles anywhere from 200 to 400 in horsepower, but all three are really close with regard to torque, at about 1000 pound feet each! The reason became clear when you look at the weight of the AMG, for it is nearly 1000 lbs heavier then the Plaid (~4700) and has about 450 lbs on the Sapphire (~5300). Bottom line is, the perception is that BEVs are way heavier than ICE vehicles, which in most cases are true. The reality is, as modern ICE vehicles get bigger and bigger (in many cases this has to do with federally mandated safety equipment) and with the publics insatiable appetite for CUV and SUVs, the penalty of having an EV with a heavy battery in his floor, may not be as great as it may be made to seem! Sure, for a sports car or sport sedan, a vehicle battery in the vehicles belly, may not cut the mustard. But in everyday driving, how much different will an F-150 Lightning drive, when compared to an F-150 King Ranch platinum (if there is such a thing)? I’m sure this new Mercedes-AMG plug-in S-Class will drive smaller then it is and in feel like it’s 5700+lbs (the AMG EQS clocks in at ~5900), but the fact that this ICE weighs MORE then Plaid and Sapphire is surprising!
December 6th, 2022 at 9:15 pm
17 BEVs like Model S Plaid have immediate power to all four wheels, while the Mercedes would have some delay getting to traction limited power. Also, the Plaid is lighter. The bottom line is that for low speed acceleration, a high powered 4wd EV is hard to beat, but the Mercedes would be much quicker 0-500 miles.
As far as weight, the AMG S-Class is heavy because it remains a serious ultra luxury car in every way, while the Model S Plaid is more of an electric Charger Hellcat competitor.
December 7th, 2022 at 7:52 am
17-18 No doubt the AMG takes a weight hit for having not only a twin turbo V8 but an electric motor and battery pack. I’m not sure how much sense it makes to have both systems. The cost and complexity seems an effort to just get those low 0-60 times as I cant imagine anyone that pays over 100K for a vehicle really is worried about MPG and the hybrid seems gratuitous for the sake of saying its a hybrid with a measly 20 miles of range.
So it really is just an electric assist launch feature adding weight complexity and cost. I’d like to see how the AMG would do losing about 1000 lbs removing the hybrid features and just having the twin turbo V8. Wouldnt it be silly if it was quicker, got better overall mileage and would cost less. That comparison I would love to see.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:34 am
19 Being a plug-in hybrid, the AMG S will do a lot of peoples’ commutes while using little, if any gas. It looks like a lot of what they are doing, though, is putting a little of their F1 tech in the flagship sedan, for added performance.
There are no EPA ratings for it yet, but it will be interesting to see how the gas mileage is compared to the non-hybrid S-Class with the 4.0 turbo. The ratings are 16/25, and 19 combined for the current one.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:11 am
11 I ‘m pretty sure Electric motors give 100 % torque instantly so I’m not sure what you’re thinking . If anything that would cut the performance . that instant torque is why Tesla’s are so fast off the line. Also it sounds as if there are no actual “gears” involved in this system hence why they said simulated. Kind of like Dodge simulating a exhaust note on their new Charger replacement.
December 7th, 2022 at 10:55 am
21 Electric motors have maximum torque at zero rpm, and the torque decreases linearly from zero rpm to no-load rpm, where the torque is zero.
High powered EVs like Tesla Plaid have enough power that, with a single gear ratio, acceleration is traction limited up to a fairly high speed. I suspect acceleration of lower power EVs like Bolt, ID.4, etc. could be improved somewhat by using more than one gear ratio, but it wouldn’t be improved enough to be worth the complexity of a multi-ratio gearbox.