AD #2949 – EVs Outsell Diesels in EU; U.S. Sales Won’t Recover Until 2024; Analyst Forecasts Low Electric Pickup Sales

October 30th, 2020 at 12:00pm

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Runtime: 10:13

0:07 U.S. Auto Sales Won’t Recover Until 2024
1:46 Analyst Forecasts Low Electric Pickup Sales
2:54 V2V Could Be Biggest Safety Breakthrough in History
4:42 GM Reveals Hummer EV Marketing Strategy
5:34 GM Considers Electric Mid-Size Trucks
6:11 Bentley & Aston Expand Outside of Car Business
7:29 BMW & VW Help Develop Sustainable Mining
8:10 Greenpeace Criticizes China’s EV Battery Recycling
8:50 Electrified Cars Outsell Diesels in EU for First Time

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35 Comments to “AD #2949 – EVs Outsell Diesels in EU; U.S. Sales Won’t Recover Until 2024; Analyst Forecasts Low Electric Pickup Sales”

  1. Larry D. Says:

    Browne is largely correct that the prospects of electic trucks are dim, in general. 40,000 sales for 2023?

    ANy prediction really depends on who gets elected next Tue.

    The same is true about predictions on when sales will recover. THey REALLY depend on the US ECONOMY, and that depends on who wins on Tue.

    SO, a WISE forecaster will REFUSE to make some average prediction, but offer TWO scenaria for each of the above questions, ONE if Trump wins, and TWO if disaster strikes and the Econ Illiterates, no EXEC Experience, corrupt professional politicians, who never had a REAL job, win.

    RE the Cybertruck, Musk predicted it will sell about 200,000 units. IF he meant for one year, I find it too optimistic, but if he meant over the 5 or more years life of this model, it is possible.

  2. TERRY Says:

    I wonder what the EU percent of sales for pure electric vehicles (not hybrids or plug-in hybrids). In 2019, in the U.S. it was only 1.5% of new vehicles sold. https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk01hKNJSQwsQq72UGBwVmqUk_T44Cw:1604074993978&q=What+percentage+of+vehicles+in+the+US+are+electric%3F&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiiydWB3dzsAhWSKs0KHbB_B6AQzmd6BAgQEAU&biw=1920&bih=975

  3. Jim Haines Says:

    Maybe Green Peace should go to China and protest in public and see how that goes over

  4. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    If I was making the Ridgeline for a living, I would be really worried about electric pick-up trucks.

    Seems the market for EV delivery/work vans is where the action is at for commercial buyers right now. It makes sense as they are not really driven all that far on a daily basis and can charge overnight at a central location. If they had 300 miles of range that would be fine for most commercial buyers. If you can get an extra 80-100 miles while recharging on a lunch break that would be even better.

  5. ChuckGrenci Says:

    Nine new electric trucks coming soon; nowhere near enough buyers for same. I wonder who will survive, or if incentives and legislation ‘make’ it happen (like over in Europe and China). I agree that one day it will happen but will it be driven by “push and shove”; it won’t be completely (or predominantly) by want.

  6. joe Says:

    V2V is a great technology getting ready for we drivers to enjoy along with the coming of autonomous vehicles.
    It seems like GM is making great strides with Super Cruise. Check it out.

    https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/report-tesla-autopilot-has-best-performance-gm-super-cruise-is-safest/

  7. Lambo2015 Says:

    Sean: GM dealerships that have repair shops with huge equipment cannot support rapid charger for EV’s?
    If our local businesses do not have a power grid to support charging network at the dealership it surly sends the message that no rapid chargers will be installed anytime soon.

  8. Kit Gerhart Says:

    1 Yes, we know that, second only to Elon Musk, you worship Donald Trump, the (not) savior of Atlantic City with those great casinos. Can’t you give it a rest, though? This should be a place to escape the political BS and discuss, well, cars.

    Warren Browne is right, in pointed out that no one seems interested in making an actual electric work truck, which is where the real market might be. I guess they are going for the big prices, but if no one buys them…

    I’d think the biggest market for electric pickup trucks might be basic, regular or extended cab with 8 foot beds, which could be used locally for actual work, and charged overnight, ready for the next day’s 50 or 100 miles.

  9. Larry D. Says:

    For those who HAVE a clue, the news on the show today that BEVs and Plug-ins sold MORE units than Diesels in Europe is nothing short of impressive. Shoking, in fact, since only a few years ago, and totally different than in the US market, More than 50% of sales in Europe were Diesels. A fact I have mentioned many times here, AS WELL AS the fact that EUROPE is going BEV BIG WAY and will soon SURPASS the US in BEV sales.

  10. Kit Gerhart Says:

    It seems that the EU is using the term “electrified” very, very loosely, to call non-plug-in hybrids electrified. I drive such a car, a Camry hybrid, and while, yeah, it is electrified, you just put gas in it and drive. To me, it shouldn’t be counted along with Tesla Model 3s as the same “type” of powertrain.

  11. Lambo2015 Says:

    8 I agree and as I stated the other day I think that the pick-up truck target is just as much a miss as when the tried pushing Econo sized EVs.
    They should be targeting the equal in size but 7 passenger SUV market. Less likely to be used for towing and added cargo other than passengers and has ICE’s in the price range that could make them competitive.

    For those that have a clue..lol Those folks know to skip over your posts.

  12. Kit Gerhart Says:

    9 They were including non-plug in hybrids to conclude that “electrified” vehicles outsold diesels. Still, that is impressive, in that diesels in Europe went from over 50% market share, to 20-some per cent in just 5 years, largely because of the emissions scandals.

  13. Lambo2015 Says:

    10 If that’s the case they would probably consider my Ram with E-torque electrified. 48 Volt electric assist adding 2 mpg.

  14. Sean McElroy Says:

    @Lambo #7 – My guess this would be for dealerships in rural areas.

  15. Kevin A Says:

    re: US Sales Recovery timing, 2024 sounds about right. Regardless of how the election goes, sales can’t permanently recover until vaccines exist AND have been delivered to 50-70% of people. The second half of that can’t really complete until this time NEXT year. After that, unemployed people need time to rebuild their finances enough to get sufficient credit to re-enter the new or used car market. Even Larry’s people who buy a car to avoid mass transit, borrow sales from the future. Once mass transit usage resumes, people are stuck with a car they don’t really need, so they hang onto it longer or flood back on to used market. It takes time for the ripples from a shock like COVID to settle down.

  16. Kevin A Says:

    Sean, As CO2 limits tighten in Europe and mild hybrid costs come down, can we expect all ICE cars to go hybrid? It would seem like an easy way to make progress towards NOT having to pay CO2 fines.

  17. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Sean, do you have any information on the manufacturing cost difference between a hybrid, and non-hybrid Toyota Corolla? When you sort out the differences in standard equipment, the MSRP of the hybrid is about $2000-2500 higher than a Corolla LE.

    With Europe’s high fuel prices, and the real world mpg of the hybrid being ~30-50% better, depending on conditions, I’d think there would be a market for serious hybrids in Europe. Maybe Europeans don’t buy Toyotas in big numbers, but VW, PSA, and others should be able to make good hybrids, if they wanted to. Increasingly common mild hybrids provide some benefit, but not very much. Maybe Europe need more serious hybrids, until EVs are cost competitive, and there is more charging infrastructure.

  18. Albemarle Says:

    There must be serious problems with electricity in rural areas. Our dealer’s DC fast charger provided by GM is only 25kw, close to 100 amp on 240 volts. Lots of houses now have 200 amp or more. I think the dealers won’t participate because of the high buy-in cost and that most of their sales are real work trucks, not pavement cowboy’s toys.

  19. Sean Wagner Says:

    European Diesel sales plummeting so far in such really is a significant development. The fuel had even gained a significant foothold in upscale vehicles (lookin’ at you, Porsche-from-the-VAG-bin).

    This disembodied voice from the ether does doubt above predictions for the takeup of electric pick-ups. I have no idea what the upper bound of combined sales might be, but 40K seems to be on the low side for a group of novelty vehicles.

    I do think the EV transition might be better served by short-to-medium range commercial vans, whose routes are highly predictable, and whose operators are well versed in calculating total cost. They would require very much smaller battery capacities and could be built in far larger numbers – of significance in a cell-constrained market.

    By the way, the Lamborghini Urus looks and sounds great. Before the Tesla Cybertruck was introduced, a very nice design was bandied about.

    On more thing: it looks to me the Hummer’s front domes are die-cast, though not part of a single massive structure like the one Tesla is buying Italian group IDRA’s Gigapresses for.

  20. Kit Gerhart Says:

    19 I think Porsche even sold diesels in the US for a few years. Well, not real Porsches, but the Touareg-derived Cayenne.

  21. Bob Wilson Says:

    #3 – I was thinking if Green Peace income were limited to recycling revenue, two problems would be solved.

  22. Sean Wagner Says:

    On the subject of Aston Martin, they just agreed to pay 10.5% p.a. on “$1.1bn of new bonds as part of a wider refinancing package that included a £125m equity raise.” Quoting the FT. The bonds are CCC rated by S&P, with proceeds used mainly to retire existing debt.

  23. Kit Gerhart Says:

    22 Aren’t CCC bonds a notch or two below “junk.”

  24. Larry D. Says:

    It’s the first of the month and the local Sunday TImes equivalent, which I buy every sunday and it takes the whole week to read, has its scheduled Auto Section, and as in previous ones, most of the cars shown are plug-ins or BEVs.

    I expect most here could care less about Europe sales, even though this show features many Europe only (or not avai in the US) models. This may have to do with the Big 3′s DISMAL failure to sell their cars overseas, and when they realy tried, as with OPEL, GM lost 20 billion $ before Mary Barra correctly, but too late, Abandoned the losing brand.

    So while we get the VW id4 BEV here, in Europe they hail the smaller id3 as ‘the new golf’, even tho I believe it is the size of the smaller POLO and the id4 is about as big as a Golf.

    As VW admitted, the id3 and id4 are not performance cars as are almost all Teslas, they are more like compliance cars, just better designed, and with ho-hum preformance. AND they are REALLY expensive for what little they offer.

    Look at the tiny id3:0-60 in an adequate, but not exciting in the least, 7.3″, a top speed of ONLY 100 MPH (for a Euro car supposed to run in the autobahn????) a range optimistically set at 250 miles or so, probably EPA 200ish, and, the deal killed, a price of … $50,000???? (E 39,600 BASE price). THere are some incentives, but average HALF the $7,500 Tax credit that only the LOSERS get in the US market…

    So good luck with that, VW. COmparisons with the far more affordable and no range anxiety ICE Golf seem RI DI CU LOUS. In a few months we will see. AND by then the TESLA GIGAfacrory in Berlin will be producing far superior Model 3s and Ys, with NO Euro protectionist tariffs (so DON”t tell me again how much a model 3 costs there NOW! it’s irrelevant).

    Other cars featured in the issue:Several Fiat 500 E variations, no price mentioned. Remember when the late Sergio begged consumers to NOT buy his E 500 because he ADMITTED it lost $15,000 per unit sold? I wonder how much FCA loses NOW on the same tiny BEV.

    Some boring offerings from Opel, and a BEV “SUV” from Nissan that looked like a pumped up Leaf, the “Ariya”. Big batteries at 63 and 87 KWH, and ranges of 200-300 miles (or much less in real world, these are NOT EPA numbers, but optimistic Euro ones!) The TOP of the line “Performance” version manages 5.1″ 0-100 KPH

    One more plug-in Merc, the GLA 250E, claimed to be its smallest..”SUV” (LOL), starting at E 45,316 ($55,000). 0-100KPH is a mediocre 7.1″ but again this is not a pure BEV. The BEV range is “almost” 63 KM ( I doubt the real value is more than a pitiful 30 miles).

    The Peugeot e-208, wisely also no price given…

    The only non-BEV or plug-in was a small CItroen “C3 Aircross”ugly thing with meager 1.2 and 1.5 lt gas and diesel engines respectively, and good MPG with the 1.5 diesel (4.4 lt/100km; I got 5 lt hwy with the 91 1.35 gas Civic, but it weighed much less)

  25. Sean Wagner Says:

    23 Kit – as per the FT ” in the lowest reaches of the “junk” bond market”.

    24 Larry – I encourage you to look up the ID.3′s dimensions. While the ID.4 is better positioned to command the somewhat higher prices EVs still go for, I think the ID.3 is a well designed and well thought-out platform/car for Europe and possibly parts of Asia.

    It’s early days, but initial sales are quite positive in select countries (where special circumstances may apply). See https://www.kentekenradar.nl/registraties/

    The Zwickau [?] factory is building 500-600 a day and ramping up further.

    But only Tesla is publicly aiming for cell supplies sufficient to really dent conventional car sales.

  26. Larry D. Says:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I just got these in an email by a recently retired Ambassador and EU Bureaucrat and old friend. It is the most comprehensive CV stats I have seen, with huge nation by nation table with all kinds of stats.

    The corrupt US media do not want you to know that the US, in fact, has done BETTER, not worse, than MANY advanced Industrial nations, as seen in the all-important Deaths PER Million Population. The corrupt US media just give you the total US deaths, with NOTHING to compare it with, and blame only Trump for them. Clowns….

  27. Kit Gerhart Says:

    26 Great chart. Yeah, the US is doing charmingly, with 5.6 times as many deaths/million population as Germany, about 3 times as many as Switzerland, and 50 times as many as Japan. Yeah, Belgium and Spain have done worse, and new deaths are spiking badly in Belgium.

  28. Kit Gerhart Says:

    25 Sean-Thanks for info about the bond ratings.

  29. Larry D. Says:

    When I read the article on the VW iD3, I realized that it is actually not as small as the Polo (smaller than the Golf).

    The id3 is only 2 cm (less than 1″) shorter than the Golf, but Taller, AND, most important, has a far longer WHEELBASE, which allows VW to claim that it, in fact, has PASSAT Room inside, one size larger than Golf.

    I just mention this to update my prior post. The HUGE price of the iD3 will be BIG Barrier for Golf-like sales ( do NOT think of US GOlf sales, in Europe it is a BEST SELLER AND it has a far better image, far better quality, than US-Mexico made GOlfs for the US market).

    Even Europeans will not pay over 25,000 euros for essentially a Golf. Especially if the base price is close to DOUBLE that, $50,000.

    SO, the meager ‘federal’ incentives there should be augmented by ‘state and local’ incentives, if they want to have a PRAYER for Model 3 kind of sales numbers. (they can forget European GOlf sales numbers anyway).

    Still, I APPLAUD VW for taking the opportunity and NOT keeping the god-awful nose-Heavy FWD design, but taking advantage of the BEV design, to increase the wheelbase and not only make the car FAR better looking than a FWD whose engine looks it will fall off the front axle, with their huge overhangs.

  30. Larry D. Says:

    29 con’d ‘not only make the car far better looking’ but MUCH roomier as well.

    On another topic. People say all the time that something is the “Rolls Royce of this or that”. Now distinguished colleagues, like this friend and colleague from scenic Trondheim in Norway, a professor in the well-respected NTNU, says this:

    “This electric, self-driving, smart ferry is the Tesla of public transport boats!

    Our autonomy solution is world-leading and can enable self-driving ferries that safely manoeuver among other boats, dock to the quay by themselves and handle passengers safely,” says Asgeir J. Sørensen, director of NTNU’s research center, NTNU AMOS…”

    As you may remember I am NOT a fan of autonomy in private cars, but it’s fine with me on planes and ships and other mass transport vehicles. But this is beside the point, which was,

    Tesla HAS ARRIVED. Dominating the BEV World Industry now and in the foreseeable future, now makes it a HOUSEHOLD WORD and a MEASURE against all others are evaluated.

  31. Kit Gerhart Says:

    Here’s C and D’s take on the iD3. They liked it pretty well.

    https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a33540804/2021-vw-id3-ev-drive/

  32. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    30) I don’t know that the TESLA of boats is a complement. Panel gaps are not good on a boat.

    29) I am also glad that you are starting to realize the big problem with BEVS. They are very expensive for their size.

    I like BEVs, but they need price parity with gas cars to get true acceptance. That is what I hope for. Well, at least enough price parity so that I don’t have to support rich people buying them with my tax dollars.

    The article mentions 25% of new cars sold were BEVs last month in the EU. That’s a good thing. Another way to look at that number though is: 75% of EU buyers saw an essentially free car, after incentives, and thought…I can do better with an ICE powered car. Ask yourself why 75% of car buyers turned down a free brand new car and decided to pay full price for an ICE powered car. The answer to that will give you the reasons why BEVs need price/range parity with ICE powered cars.

  33. Kit Gerhart Says:

    32 Wasn’t that 25% of cars were “electrified,” meaning Priuses, etc., and maybe even “mild hybrids” would be included in that count?

    Regarding the VW ID.3, the top speed will be limited to ~100 mph. I suspect that is to avoid the bad publicity of the 30 or so mile range you’d get if allowed to run at the actual 120-130 mph drag limited top speed.

  34. MERKUR DRIVER Says:

    33) You are right. That makes it even worse for BEVs LOL. I really do like them, but they are far too expensive. In a place like Europe where the population is concentrated in city centers, Charging is an issue just as it is for you at your condominium. That is probably why we are seeing the take rate so low despite unbelievably generous incentives by the EU government.

  35. Alex Carazan Says:

    GM HUMMER EV PICK-UP: $112,000 electric pick-up. Seems like a high price. The bed size is fairly small. The 350 mile range is not that far compared to gasoline trucks. Kind of long charge times compared to filling up with gas. The lack of charge infrastructure across the USA makes it fairly hard to plan any long trips. But it goes super fast and can crab walk. T-tops on the roof are cool that store in the front trunk…kind of cool. SuperCruise feature is nice but not sure how much long highway trips they will be driven on. 2 cameras under the truck are cool…I assume they are self cleaning. Styling is really cool. Already sold out! Will it be a long term mass volume success? I don’t think volume was GM’s purpose. Consider this a market trial. Watch for the results. A loaded high-end Silverado is $45k less. Gasoline is $2.00 a gallon. The many EV nameplates coming will learn quickly the consumer interest. Currently EV’s are 1.5% market share year to date. Let’s see what happens.
    How many Hummer pick-ups and SUV’s could GM sell if they had a well proven V6 gas engine?