Listen to “AAH #719 – Autonomous Cars on the Verge of a Breakout” on Spreaker.
– AV availability expanding rapidly
– Need for national AV standards
– A race between the U.S. and China
PANEL:
Henry Liu, Mcity Director
Michael Robinet, S&P Global
Gary Vasilash, shinymetalboxes.net
John McElroy, Autoline.tv
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AAH
Really Not Going Anywhere Next 4 years.
My 6 year old, 140,000 mi, Tesla Model 3 is still going strong. The expected battery degradation, ~12%, has been much slower than the +400% increase in charging stations. I still have enough range to drive 3 hour segments at less than my last Prius cost. Best of all, the 15-30 minute charging breaks along will AutoPilot and Full Self Driving is like having a second driver.
Saturday, I will drive 1,200 miles to see the next StarShip launch. Afterwards, I’ll return via New Orleans to meet with my solar roof contractor. Once installed, I’ll get a monthly reduction in my electric bill, an actual dividend, missing from the TSLA stock I sold.
You may have noticed that your compatriots who bought EVs seldom go back to ICE or hybrids. It is long past time that you’ all should follow Sandy Munro’s example and go EV. It doesn’t have to be a Tesla unless you want the best of the affordable breed.
Not discussed is the market application segmentation issue which is much more significant than in the ICE only era.
Urban commercial is all in on BEVs simply because the economic benefits are overwhelming. Commuter second cars are very likely to go electric for the same reason. Single car households will inevitably be hybrids simply due to potential long distance driving issues. Rural areas will stick with ICE or at best some hybrids simply because of infrastructure and legacy comfort issues.
PHEVs are still stuck in a difficult “jack of all trades” space, which has proven to be inefficient since studies clearly show people rarely plug them in. If an EREV can match hybrid efficiency, in terms of both fuel economy and cost, then perhaps there is a place form them. Otherwise they just add to the ongoing PHEV application confusion.
BEV/Hybrid/ICE each have a pretty clear and understandable application space in people’s minds, but PHEVs and potentially EREVs just muddy the water for consumers and might push them back to ICE comfort.