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Runtime: 10:23
0:00 China Car Market Up Strong in November
1:09 Tesla Up 32% In China This Year
1:37 Ford Sets Record Exports from China
2:10 BYD Seal Targets Model 3 In Mexico
3:33 VW Cariad Runs to China for Help
4:09 Porsche Working On 6G LTE
5:00 Porsche Jumps into Carbon Capture
5:29 Stellantis Blames CARB for Potential Layoffs
6:18 Safety Experts Criticize Cybertruck
7:08 Dojo Exec Quits
7:43 Elon Sends Blueprints For 48V To Legacy OEMs
8:28 Ken Block’s Last Drifting Video
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
CHINA CAR MARKET UP STRONG IN NOVEMBER
In like a lamb, out like a lion. That’s the story in the Chinese car market for 2023. China started out the year with a big slump in new car sales. But last month sales were up 25% compared to a year ago. Total sales were just over 2 million units. That’s on top of a 10% increase in October. Sales of New Energy Vehicles shot up 40% and hit a milestone. It’s the first time they topped 40% market share, with customers buying 552,000 BEVs. One reason sales are up so much is that a tax credit for higher priced BEVs expires at the end of the month, so more people are buying those models, which means we could see a slump again in January. China’s economy has been a bit wobbly this year, with worries over a big drop in real estate prices and high levels of institutional debt. But it looks like someone forgot to tell that to car buyers.
TESLA UP 32% IN CHINA THIS YEAR
And since everyone wants to know how Tesla is doing in China, it had a pretty good month. It sold over 82,400 cars from its Shanghai plant, with 80% of them going to Chinese buyers. For the first 11 months of the year Tesla sold over 520,000 cars in China, up 32%, while it exported over 325,000 units, up 26%.
FORD SETS RECORD EXPORTS FROM CHINA
Ford is another foreign automaker that exports out of China. It set a record this year by shipping more than 100,000 vehicles out of the country. They mainly go to South America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Ford has had a rough time in the Chinese market. In 2017, it sold over 1.2 million vehicles but last year that dropped to only 495,000. So Ford, like many other Chinese automakers, is exporting vehicles to keep its production volume up.
BYD SEAL TARGETS MODEL 3 IN MEXICO
And along those lines, BYD just started selling its model called the Seal in Mexico. You may remember that the Seal is one of the finalists for the European Car of The Year. And BYD has Tesla’s Model 3 directly in its crosshairs. It’s selling two versions of the Seal in Mexico, a rear-drive model with 200 horsepower, a range of 460 kilometers or 285 miles, and a price of nearly $45,000. And an all-wheel-drive version with 522-HP, a 520-kilometer range or 320 miles, and a price of $52,000. That compares to $56,000 for a Tesla Model 3 all-wheel-drive model, and $66,000 for the performance version. Mexico is emerging as an important market for Chinese automakers. They already have 9% market share, and many analysts believe they’re going to use Mexico as a springboard into the US market.
VW CARIAD RUNS TO CHINA FOR HELP
Volkswagen’s troubled software and technology division, called Cariad, has fallen way behind in development goals and that delayed multiple new car launches. So, it’s turning to the Chinese for help. Cariad is forming a new joint venture with Horizon Robotics to develop driver assistance and autonomous technology. Volkswagen invested 2.4 billion euros to get a 60% stake in the new company, which they’re calling Carizon. VW will appoint the CEO, while Horizon chooses the Chief Technology Officer.
PORSCHE WORKING ON 6G LTE
One of the models delayed by Cariad’s slow pace is the Porsche Macan EV so Porsche started developing critical technologies on its own. One of those areas is vehicle communication. It’s already working with the supplier Bosch to develop 6G networks, which isn’t expected to be out until about 2030. 6G will use satellites and balloons at different orbits as well as AI to transfer data at much faster speeds and better reliability than 5G. This could potentially allow cars to talk to one another at the same time they use the 6G radio waves to detect objects around them, which could dramatically improve vehicle safety. However, experts say there’s still a number of hurdles to jump, which is why 6G isn’t expected to be out until the end of the decade.
PORSCHE JUMPS INTO CARBON CAPTURE
Speaking of Porsche, it’s taking a unique approach to reduce pollution. It signed a letter of intent to set up a direct air capture system in Germany. These systems pull CO2 directly out of the atmosphere, so it can be used as a raw material to make things like synthetic fuels and graphite for battery production. The structure Porsche intends to build looks quite large, but it doesn’t give any indication about how much CO2 it can remove.
STELLANTIS BLAMES CARB FOR POTENTIAL LAYOFFS
Stellantis is attacking the California Air Resources Board on several fronts. Yesterday we reported that it’s filing a petition against the agency. Today it warned that it’s cutting a shift at its Mack Assembly plant in Detroit and cutting jobs at its Toledo plant in Ohio because it expects lower sales of gas-powered vehicles in order to comply with California’s emission standards. Both plants build Jeeps and 2,455 jobs could be eliminated at the Mack plant and 1,225 jobs in Toledo. We think Stellantis is playing its cards rather well. By threatening job losses, it could get the UAW to watch its back as it fights the California Air Resources Board.
SAFETY EXPERTS CRITICIZE CYBERTRUCK
Safety experts are worried about the Tesla Cybertruck. They think it’s too strong. Reuters spoke to six safety professors and officials who say the truck could be dangerous for pedestrians and cyclists and even other vehicles in a crash because of its angular design and its stiff structure. They think that stiff structure will plow right through other vehicles and do a lot of damage. Of course, Tesla doesn’t agree. Elon Musk says the truck not only meets all US safety standards, he says it will be safer per mile than other trucks for both occupants and pedestrians. However, even Tesla admits that the Cybertruck could face problems trying to meet Europe’s pedestrian safety standards, which require crumple zones on the hood to protect bicyclists and pedestrians.
DOJO EXEC QUITS
Speaking of Tesla, Bloomberg reports that the head of its Dojo supercomputer project left the company last month. He had been with the company for the last five years but no one is saying why he’s leaving. Tesla is developing the Dojo supercomputer to help train machine learning models for its autonomous systems, which will improve its algorithms faster. Tesla is spending $1 billion to develop Dojo through the end of 2024 and Morgan Stanley estimates that it could add $500 billion to Tesla’s value.
ELON SENDS BLUEPRINTS FOR 48V TO LEGACY OEMs
When Tesla introduced the Cybertruck last week, we said one of its most important aspects is its 48-volt system for its power electronics. And now the automaker is sharing the details of that system with other automakers. Ford CEO Jim Farley even sent a tweet thanking Elon Musk for making the documents available. A 48-volt system allows you to send more power to the electronics without raising the current, which means it can use thinner and lighter wiring. Tesla is sharing this information because it needs the industry to adopt 48-volt technology because repair costs will be high if Tesla is the only company using 48-volt components. So more volume is needed to bring down costs for those parts.
KEN BLOCK’S LAST DRIFTING VIDEO
At the beginning of this year drift king Ken Block tragically lost his life in a snowmobiling accident. But we’re getting one last new video in his Gymkhana series, now called Electrikhana thanks to the all-electric Audi S1 Hoonitron he drives. In this installment, he spends nearly 8 minutes tearing up different landmarks in Mexico City. Block started making these videos in 2008 and has drifted some really cool and specialized machines over the last 15 years. I think the first Gymkhana video I saw was in 2010 and I still find myself watching videos from the series every once and a while when I just need to shut my brain off.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show and this week. I hope you have a great weekend.
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Satellites and balloons will support the new 6G technology? Guess what the next Chinese spy satellites and balloons will look like?
OK, who else here immediately thought W.O.P.R. (circa War Games – 1983) when Sean started talking about Tesla’s DOJO super computer? https://images.app.goo.gl/idD5zvDLjiPSNs8W9
Stiffness and strength are hardly the same thing. Stiffness quantifies the amount of deflection/distortion when a given force is applied. Strength is the largest number of pounds a structure withstands before total collapse (destructive deflection).
Sean; I was confused by your comment about Stellantis dealing with CARB and the UAW watching its back, sounded like Stellantis’s fight might require the UAW to watch its own back like CARB could create problems for them. I assume you meant the UAW might have the companies back. The announced layoffs could prompt the UAW to support the company or maybe make the relationship even more divisive.
Are we sure the layoffs don’t have anything to do with the recent contract pay increase? Or does the CARB stuff take effect this year? I doubt Stellantis is going to stop selling Jeeps in Cali.
Kudos to Elon for sharing 48v technology directly with other CEO’s.
RIP Ken Block we will miss your style.
I do find it quite funny that when faced with a problem in Europe such as pedestrian and vehicle collisions rather than solve the problem the solution is to allow people to be struck but design the vehicles to have crumple zones and reduce the damage to pedestrians. Legislators don’t care what it costs manufacturers to design a vehicle for such impacts and manufactures don’t care as that cost is because it’s passed onto the consumer. So, we as consumers can pay for infrastructure to permanently protect the public walking and bicycling safely or we can pay more for each and every vehicle to allow the accidents to continue but try and reduce the damage. I’m just not sure how elected officials think, I guess. Doesn’t make sense to me.
I suspect Stellantis is laying off people because Jeeps just aren’t selling as well as they once did, in California, and most other places.
The safety problem I see with Cybertruck, and a lot of other vehicles on US roads, is that it weighs more than twice as much as what I usually drive. The Cybertruck now starting to be sold weighs 6600 pounds, and with the “range extender” battery, it will probably be 7500 pounds. It least it’s lighter than the ~9000 pound Hummer thing.
Another great week,thanks. Great mention of Ken Block
It seems like bicyclists need training, and pedestrians need common sense. About a third of bicyclists where I am ride on the wrong side of the street, and wonder why people turning right from side streets pull in front of them. Then, texting while walking can get you hurt or killed, like texting while driving.
stellantis youre going to blame california that you polluted the air with all those trx,s challengers chargers durango,s jeeps with unnecesary 8 cylinder engines and what ever other stupid products youve been selling
Let’s say for the sake of arguments, the reason why Tesla has done so little with the sheet metal updates of their vehicles, is because that are doing some much development under their skin. It’s with that in mind, it seems the unintended consequences of being so far ahead of competitors, is the added cost, like the 48V wiring in todays story! It’s interesting that it saves money for Tesla, to help the competition advance, to bring down over all product costs for the EV vehicle industry. From 48V electrical system, gigacastings, heat pumps, the software that runs their systems and on and on. I not saying that Tesla created or perfected these systems, but the integration of them in their vehicles still has them head of many of the legacy OEMs, as they introduce more of their electric vehicles. If their equipment and repair cost remain high, because no one else is that far along and using those same technology, to big down their costs, they have to elevate those around them, is a new twist in this 100 plus year old industry, in my experience!
Tesla seems to consider it high priority to make their already bad operator interface even worse, by deleting the turn signal stalk.
So, the Cybertruck has remote steering (no physical connection), and by reviewer’s comment takes a little getting used to. If another manufacturer brings this to the market, there would certainly be push back; so how is this better, has a learning curve and differs from the standard steering system. Does Tesla get another ‘pass’? Not better, just different doesn’t always ring true from my point of view. This goes along with Kit’s comment on the lack of a turn signal stalk (and the screen access to other functions). Different doesn’t always mean better. I’ll give it to Tesla for thinking outside of the box but that’s not always the way.
There is no solving the problem of pedestrian safety, but better managing it. With the level of foot traffic prevalent in Europe, something like safer interfaces helps. It’s why hoods will slightly pop up at the hinged end too in case of a collision.
The same general idea has been followed by Sweden – for years now, they’ve had a preventive program to dispose of trees that are directly adjacent to overloand routes. I used to think it was perfectly daft, but it does save lives.
With regards to Cybertruck’s steering, I suspect that too is a product of Elon’s fixation with autonomous driving, just like the missing stalks, which directly and negatively impact safety in roundabouts (endemic in Europe, and very useful).
As interesting as having a vehicle like Cybertruck roaming the roads can be (when will we see the first woodie?), it does nothing for Tesla outside the US and Canada.
Lastly, from one of the best sources on batteries, quote Benchmark Minerals (though I disagree, anything-but-China is more a realistic proposition than total localization):
Simon Moores @sdmoores
🚨 China and #graphite
This sums up the main issue the rest of the world faces with graphite and anode material.
There is a lot of anode capacity planned but hardly any for the rest of the world.
2023: China dominates with 93%
2035: China dominates with 90%
The issue isn’t an overall capacity and cost one but a supply security, supply quality, and a sustainability one.
As the biggest input into a lithium ion battery, If you don’t have graphite at volume and quality, your gigafactory will stall.
Localising supply chains should really start with graphite.
Let me clear, while I think it’s interesting and good that Tesla is willing to share their 48V tech (is that the right word?) with the industry to lower cost themselves as well as other OEMs and that they have been a the forefront of other changes as the industry moves to a more sustainable footprint, that does mean that what’s good Tesla is as good for the industry! It seems at times that Tesla seeks change for the sake of it, as well. What is clear, legacy OEMs are attempting to incorporate Tesla-like changes that work for, into an assembly process they have protected and works best for them. From new tech, changes (big or small) to the assembly process to accommodate said new tech, them balance the cost of all that change on the hood of the product produced (how much can they ask the consumer to support and how much will the have to eat until the program is self-sustaining) is interesting to watch!
I thought the EUs requirement for the trick vehicles hoods for the protection of pedestrians, had to do with the amount of clearance between to vehicles hood and the engine beneath it? The EU found (had determined) that the severity of a pedestrian impact with a vehicle, in a low speed, frontal collision, had to do with the pedestrian slamming their head against the hood of the vehicle, which was supported by the solid mass of the engine beneath it. Which was why the required a greater distance between the top of the hood and engine, or some means of raising the hood in the event of a pedestrian collision. The Cybertruck has no engine under its front hood, so why would this be an issue for its sell in the UK and the EU? I would imagine that the big issue would be the Cybertruck being so big and heavy on the narrower roads, dictated by the older infrastructure in that part of the world.
Will Cybertruck and other users of steer-by-wire have triple or quadruple redundancy of computer and electrical systems, and backup mechanical control of some kind, like with fly-by-wire in airplanes? They should.
Will the 48 volt batteries replacing the 12 volt lead acid battery last the life of the vehicle? There will need to be a system to automatically remove all load when it gets down to ~3.65 volts/cell, as when the vehicle is parked for an extended time, or the battery will be destroyed.
I saw a CT review and it did state that steer by wire was triple redundant, so that’s good; but I still have a problem with having to learn a different ‘feel’ to navigate the vehicle from other vehicles. That’s probably the curmudgeon in me.
In the review I watched the driver stated the Cybertruck took a few minutes to get used to the steering feel but felt it was responsive enough for a truck like vehicle and that after that first few minutes it seemed quite adequate. With that in mind he also stated he wouldn’t want it in a sportscar.
I too feel that a lot of what Tesla does often times is in an effort to stand out be different and appear as breaking the traditional automotive mold. Kudos for no being afraid to expand the envelope but as also stated sometimes different is always better.
The looks of the Cybertruck is horrendous. Of coarse, looks are in the eyes of the beholder, but not many will say it’s great looking. I’m sure, it would do well used as a demolition derby.